Isiah Reed Sheppard, #1 pick for 2024

[CptCrunch]

This is a thread for the #1 draft pick of 2024. Mainly creating this thread as the current Reed thread is bundled with Rob Dillingham. The number one pick this year deserves his own thread.

Reed should be the consensus #1 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft due to his exceptional statistical output and elite shooting ability. While this draft class is generally considered weaker, Reed stands out as an outlier talent whose extraordinary numbers warrant the top selection.

It would be a mistake for any team to not have Reed as the by far #1 prospect this year. In most years, Reed wouldn't be a #1 pick, but in this generally considered weak year, there is no better prospect than Reed. The main strength of Reed is an outlier level of production on the court.


1/ If you know, you know

The theme here is that anyone with analytics backgrounds and follows basketball analytics understands the concept of outlier driven success. Besides, players who fit in molds are boring; all time greats tend to create their own molds for others to follow in.

Reed's outlier status is clearly evident when analyzing advanced metrics like Box Plus-Minus (BPM). Among freshmen since 2008, Reed posted the 10th highest BPM at 11.4, trailing only James Harden among guards. While box-score metrics can overvalue rebounding for bigs, for a guard like Reed to rank so highly in BPM points to truly elite production. Practically every player on this list turned out to be a good. There are no guards on this list period aside from James "Greatest Player of His Generation" Harden and and fairly good journeyman Russell.



2/ Numbers aren't just a mirage

What separates Reed is his outlier shooting efficiency. His 69.9% true shooting percentage puts him in the 100th percentile, while on jump shots specifically he posted an astronomical 72.1% true shooting. Elite shooting splits like these are exceptionally rare and a reason some have favorably compared Reed's scoring prowess to Stephen Curry. No one is claiming Reed is the next Curry, but damn these are astronomical shooting stats.



3/ Kentucky guards may be underrated

In general, people have been saying for years that Kentucky guards tend do well in the league. I've been arguing for years that Calipari is a waster of talent. He makes great players look okay, okay players look bad. Barely anyone going to Kentucky gets help with their stock.

In response to this post: (viewtopic.php?p=113259233#p113259233) I've added the RSCI of each player drafted over the last 13 drafts.

Kentucky guards who outperform their RSCI tend to do well in the NBA. It is also well known that RSCI is 'sticky.' Players who were high ranked tend to get too much credit in terms of their draft positions. Every player with RSCI greater or equal to Pick # is at minimum a NBA role player or better. Reed's #33 RSCI into top 5 pick status bodes well for his future in the league.

Code: Select all

|Name                    | RSCI|Pick      |Year  |Team                  |G/B |
|:-----------------------|----:|:---------|:-----|:---------------------|:---|
|John Wall               |    2|1         |2010  |Washington Wizards    |G   |
|Eric Bledsoe            |   52|18        |2010  |Oklahoma City Thunder |G   |
|Devin Booker            |   23|13        |2015  |Phoenix Suns          |G   |
|Jamal Murray            |   73|7         |2016  |Denver Nuggets        |G   |
|DeAaron Fox             |    6|5         |2017  |Sacramento Kings      |G   |
|Malik Monk              |    9|11        |2017  |Charlotte Hornets     |G   |
|Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |   30|11        |2018  |Los Angeles Clippers  |G   |
|Tyler Herro             |   35|13        |2019  |Miami Heat            |G   |
|Immanuel Quickley       |   14|25        |2020  |New York Knicks       |G   |
|Tyrese Maxey            |   10|21        |2020  |Philadelphia 76ers    |G   |
|Cason Wallace           |   10|10        |20223 |Dallas Mavericks      |G   |
|Brandon Knight          |    4|8         |2011  |Detroit Pistons       |B   |
|Marquis Teague          |    7|29        |2012  |Chicago Bulls         |B   |
|Archie Goodwin          |   10|29        |2013  |Golden State Warriors |B   |
|James Young             |    9|17        |2014  |Boston Celtics        |B   |
|Aaron Harrison          |    6|51        |2015  |Charlotte Hornets     |B   |
|Andrew Harrison         |    5|44        |2015  |Phoenix Suns          |B   |
|Isaiah Briscoe          |   11|Undrafted |N/A   |N/A                   |B   |
|Quade Green             |   23|Undrafted |N/A   |N/A                   |B   |
|Ashton Hagans           |   14|Undrafted |N/A   |N/A                   |B   |
|Brandon Boston Jr.      |    4|51        |2021  |Los Angeles Clippers  |B   |
|TyTy Washington Jr.     |   14|29        |2022  |Houston Rockets       |B   |

4/ Other players at #1 are not exciting

Alexandre Sarr - Mystery Frenchman hiding out in Australia with no offense other than offensive potential. Tool-sy defender. Does this not seem like a common archetype or have I been dreaming about these past few years?
Zaccharie Risacher - Another Frenchman. Put up some decent games recently, but look at those aggregate stats. Oh bad shooter. I probably have this guy at #2 and better than others listed here.
Nikola Topic - Huge young point guard out of Serbia. Knee injury? Maybe? Maybe not? I ain't Kevin O'Connor but I liked Killian Hayes more than I am liking this dude now. Janky form on jumpshot. Best shooter of these 5?
Matas Buzelis - No one is seriously considering Matas at #1 right? Can't dribble, can't pass, bad shooter.
Donovan Clingan - So Walker Kessler with more offense? No one is seeing star potential here right?

[FarBeyondDriven]

I've got him as a late 1st maybe early 2nd round talent. I'm alone on the island (per usual) so I'm either going to very wrong or very right and a whole lot of you wrong.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Yeah, Sheppard is clearly #1. If he gets better at dribbling, he's basically Jalen Brunson or better.

Him getting elite at dribbling is very unlikely, but it's possible. No one else has a superstar path.

[yosemiteben]

Among freshmen since 2008, Reed posted the 10th highest BPM at 11.4, trailing only James Harden among guards.
...

Not to nitpick, but you realize that Reed is 3td on this list and based on that chat has a higher BPM than you stated? No one on that chat has an 11.4 BPM.

[CptCrunch]

Old pic from January

[CptCrunch]

Among freshmen since 2008, Reed posted the 10th highest BPM at 11.4, trailing only James Harden among guards.
...

Not to nitpick, but you realize that Reed is 3td on this list and based on that chat has a higher BPM than you stated? No one on that chat has an 11.4 BPM.

Old pic from January

[HadAnEffectHere]

What's the argument for Jalen Brunson being a better passer or shooter than Sheppard or having better physical tools than Sheppard?

Obviously Brunson's shot creation is massively ahead of Sheppard so Sheppard has to improve his shot creation a lot and this is unlikely... But it's possible.

Sheppard as a Freshman was a better shot creator than Brunson was as a Freshman so he's got a shot to reach that level.

[Kalela]

I would be surprised if he ends up being a better player than JJ Reddick.

[CptCrunch]

What's the argument for Jalen Brunson being a better passer or shooter than Sheppard or having better physical tools than Sheppard?

Obviously Brunson's shot creation is massively ahead of Sheppard so Sheppard has to improve his shot creation a lot and this is unlikely... But it's possible.

Sheppard as a Freshman was a better shot creator than Brunson was as a Freshman so he's got a shot to reach that level.

Brunson had an outsized late career developmental curve. His development is atypical and cannot be projected and should not be used for any comparison ever. This is similar to trying to project a player with atypical path like Giannis or Butler.

All statistical projects are about the mean path, not outlier type paths. This is the basic premise of analytics.

[OriAr]

I would be surprised if he ends up being a better player than JJ Reddick.

An elite role player and a legitimate 3rd scoring option on a contender?
That's a legitimately great outcome in this draft.

[JustBuzzin]

Do people view this kid as a SG or PG?

I can maybe see him as a starting PG, but he's not going to survive at SG at 6'1.

[sisibilio]

What's the argument for Jalen Brunson being a better passer or shooter than Sheppard or having better physical tools than Sheppard?

Obviously Brunson's shot creation is massively ahead of Sheppard so Sheppard has to improve his shot creation a lot and this is unlikely... But it's possible.

Sheppard as a Freshman was a better shot creator than Brunson was as a Freshman so he's got a shot to reach that level.

Brunson rate of improvement is one of a kind, it's extremely unlikely we'll see anyone replicating that anytime soon.

[SelfishPlayer]

What's the argument for Jalen Brunson being a better passer or shooter than Sheppard or having better physical tools than Sheppard?

Obviously Brunson's shot creation is massively ahead of Sheppard so Sheppard has to improve his shot creation a lot and this is unlikely... But it's possible.

Sheppard as a Freshman was a better shot creator than Brunson was as a Freshman so he's got a shot to reach that level.

Brunson rate of improvement is one of a kind, it's extremely unlikely we'll see anyone replicating that anytime soon.

I don't think it's Brunson improving as much as it as an organization giving him a bigger role. Gilbert Arenas and Tyrese Maxey are examples of improvement and certainly a larger role.

[clyde21]

I would be surprised if he ends up being a better player than JJ Reddick.

did you just pick the first white dude you thought of?

[clyde21]

Do people view this kid as a SG or PG?

I can maybe see him as a starting PG, but he's not going to survive at SG at 6'1.

the dude is 6-1 w/o shoes. who's looking at him as a SG? any path to legitimacy in the NBA has to be primarily at PG.

[JustBuzzin]

I would be surprised if he ends up being a better player than JJ Reddick.

did you just pick the first white dude you thought of?

You didn't get the memo only white players can be compared to other white players.

Luka is the next Larry Bird and their games are nothing alike.

[Chuck Everett]

I don't see it. I see a future backup. If he becomes a star player like Brunson, I'd be glad to be wrong.

[clyde21]

Reed is gonna be a great study case for just how important statistical indicators are for prospects, obviously they are important but Reed pushes that to the extreme. he's a 6-1 marginal athlete, likely a single-position player, with some scalability concerns on tape. but statistically speaking he's absurd. so I guess we'll see what all of this means when he's in the NBA.

i have him 5th right now and in a class without any elite prospects so I won't argue against someone who wants to take him #1, but I just can't personally get there because I just don't see the ceiling tbh, even if some other guys have a much lower floor.

[MemphisX]

Reed is gonna be a great study case for just how important statistical indicators are for prospects, obviously they are important but Reed pushes that to the extreme. he's a 6-1 marginal athlete, likely a single-position player, with some scalability concerns on tape. but statistically speaking he's absurd. so I guess we'll see what all of this means when he's in the NBA.

i have him 5th right now and in a class without any elite prospects so I won't argue against someone who wants to take him #1, but I just can't personally get there because I just don't see the ceiling tbh, even if some other guys have a much lower floor.

Yeah because I have long given the blind benefit of the doubt to any frosh that can crack 10+ BPM in college. It rarely fails as you can see by the list.

[JRoy]

Interesting prospect; did not know he was that much an outlier.

Still, he is an unremarkable athlete and ball handler.

Looks like a Euro all star.