2024 Draft Thread - Part II

[tontoz]

I am all for trading Kuzma now. We will have guys who need touches and he is just too shot happy. Plus I am tired of watching him.

[The Consiglieri]

Trade Kuzma for draft picks! Sign and trade Jones for (at least partly) draft capital.

Agreed on Kuzma. But, I think Kuzma becomes more valuable as time goes on (with his contract). Agreed we should trade him for picks... but maybe at the deadline?

And if we can S&T Jones for more draft capital - heck yeah!

I also just think it's better value trading him for picks in another draft and spreading out the rookie footprint on the team over time. We are already potentially sent for 3 rookies from this class after adding 2 last year, that makes 5 players w/a partial season or less of experience heading into '24-'25. I very much doubt they move down. They stick and pick at 2, or trade out and I don't think they're trading out. If they move around with a pick, it's probably packaging future 2nds to move up from 26, or simply move down/or out from 26. I don't think they do anything with the 2 except take the best or 2nd best guy they've got on their board. I think the liklihood of anything else is probably sub 10, and maybe sub 5%.

[The Consiglieri]

There has been a lot of discussion about Gafford, doesn’t Sarr have a very similar body frame? Sarr is not a wide body, so is his ceiling Daniel Gafford with better shooting skills?

That is a pretty damn good player, no? I mean if Gafford could have picked and popped and not just picked and rolled...

Also, I think that Sarr could eventually be much better at setting screens - I never felt that was one of Gafford's strengths (but I might be projecting).

This is part of the reason people are skeptical of paying through the nose for bigs though. Gafford was very good for us, a steal really, and fantastic for Dallas, and yet his going rate was a late first in the worst draft in a decade. A good reminder why we should sit on the idea of going after any of these centers unless its at 26 or the second round. Unless these guys are transformative mega talents, they are all treated like blocking/catch and fall TE's in the NFL. A dime a dozen. Even when they're actually better thant hat, like Gafford.

[dckingsfan]

There has been a lot of discussion about Gafford, doesn’t Sarr have a very similar body frame? Sarr is not a wide body, so is his ceiling Daniel Gafford with better shooting skills?

That is a pretty damn good player, no? I mean if Gafford could have picked and popped and not just picked and rolled...

Also, I think that Sarr could eventually be much better at setting screens - I never felt that was one of Gafford's strengths (but I might be projecting).

This is part of the reason people are skeptical of paying through the nose for bigs though. Gafford was very good for us, a steal really, and fantastic for Dallas, and yet his going rate was a late first in the worst draft in a decade. A good reminder why we should sit on the idea of going after any of these centers unless its at 26 or the second round. Unless these guys are transformative mega talents, they are all treated like blocking/catch and fall TE's in the NFL. A dime a dozen. Even when they're actually better thant hat, like Gafford.

There are 4 of them in the NBA right now (in my mind), Jokic, Embiid, Sabonis & Adebayo. I don't think there is one of them in this year's draft. But I think one could argue that we can't "see" any of those players (center or otherwise) in this years' draft. Doesn't mean there isn't one though...

Either way, if Sarr is Gafford with a 3-point shot... that isn't a bad player. That is a starter on a good team.

[NatP4]

I am all for trading Kuzma now. We will have guys who need touches and he is just too shot happy. Plus I am tired of watching him.

Fully agree. Give Deni/Bilal/Vuckevic/Butler/Kispert and any rookies more of that usage. Add in the injury risk/decline in productivity that could hurt his trade value.

Obviously, the narrative surrounding the 2025 draft is it is loaded. Teams aren’t going to be looking to give those picks up.

Buy low on the 2024 draft picks. Personally feel the 10-40 range of this draft is wildly underrated and loaded with talent.

[dckingsfan]

I am all for trading Kuzma now. We will have guys who need touches and he is just too shot happy. Plus I am tired of watching him.

I guess I should have said, "wait to get the most "draft capital" out of the trade. Indeed, if we want to develop our other forwards that also might be a consideration. See if we can get a pick or two in '26 and '27. We are going to need those picks as well.

[The Consiglieri]

I think he (i.e. Reed Sheppard) fits a lot of rosters, but really doesn't fit our roster, especially if Poole is around....

First off, you always take the best player available. You never do otherwise. No exceptions. Period.

Plus, in our case, we don't have a roster, "our roster," for Reed Sheppard to fit or not fit.

We have, at most, 2 players whom we feel some confidence of wanting 2 years from now: Avdija & Coulibaly.

The other young guys are no more than question marks -- at best. The veterans are all for sale.

Even if we add players at all 3 of our pick spots, they still won't suffice to give our roster a particular shape, to characterize our roster long-term.

Just do our best to take the BPA over & over & see what the roster looks like. If we do a good job at that, we will be adding assets we can use in trades to reshape our roster. To give it the shape we want.

I've finally found something we 1000% agree on. I don't want Sheppard either (but reserve the right to be totally wrong there in my judgement), but yeah, we shouldn't be paying any attention whatsoever to position and roster in any draft over the next 2-3 seasons, we should be accumulating the maximum amount of talent imaginable period, full stop. Roster fit is totally irrelevant. We have the closest thing to zero talent imaginable. We should not care a whit what position players play beyond how that impacts draft capital value.

[doclinkin]

There has been a lot of discussion about Gafford, doesn’t Sarr have a very similar body frame? Sarr is not a wide body, so is his ceiling Daniel Gafford with better shooting skills?

That is a pretty damn good player, no? I mean if Gafford could have picked and popped and not just picked and rolled...

Also, I think that Sarr could eventually be much better at setting screens - I never felt that was one of Gafford's strengths (but I might be projecting).

Screens I don't know. Scouts say its a weakness of his right now. Looks right to me. My sense is that Sarr is not motivated in the physical contact stuff, setting screens, boxing out, muscling for rebounds. Looks to me like he is afraid of contact. Or plays that way anyway. I'm still not on board the Sarr train in large part for this reason. The lack of physicality is a red flag. You want your big to know he's big. To play big. He's been tall on the international scene for a while. The benefit of picking Sarr is that he is an athletic marvel, okay, but if he won't actually use his advantage of superior size then what is the point. Yes he will get stronger, yes he will get bigger, but odds are he won't get more competitive. More aggressive. I'd rather auction off this pick than feel like I'm gonna be shouting at a guy to get in the action and mix it up a bit.

[doclinkin]

Huh?

You don’t agree with that comp? Rashard Lewis maybe?

Kuz is a thick PF/SF who does his best offensive work in the half court. Risacher looks to be a lean SG/SF who will excel in the open court.

Right. Kuzma how. Kuz dominates the ball when he is out there, Risacher hits open shots or passes it instantly then relocates to make himself open. One maybe 2 dribbles to shake his man for that open shot. His low assist totals reflect this, his play style is patterned more after a guy like Klay Thompson than any of the guys cited. Not as strong on individual defense, but active in motion off the ball, busy and devoted team defender, and with that touch-ball/shoot-ball mindset on offense that forces teams to scramble and chase.
He has enough one-dribble short hop ball handling that he can pop a clean shot off against anyone. Good read/react instincts on the offball cuts. And if he is able to raise his game when it matters most, that instills confidence to build off of.

I'm happy he is peaking at the right time. I like his game. I do think Atlanta takes him, but if not then Dawkins et al get to decide if he has greater upside than the next set of guys, or he can listen to offers from teams that are intrigued.

[doclinkin]

More and more, I think — this has got to be the guy.

I just watched his highlights against Tennessee. Quick release, can get to his spots, heady, sneakily athletic.

Shooting. When was the last time we had shooting in the backcourt. Gilbert. That’s when.

He’s definitely not a sexy pick — but no sexy picks exist this year. But he might be a sure thing.

How confident is everyone that he can play PG at the NBA level? Because as an undersized 2 he isn’t worth much even in this weak draft.

If he can play PG he should be viewed as a top 2 guy who has the potential to become Curry-lite.

He doesn't have an advanced handle, but he has an unmatched perception of the game. He makes quick reads and fundamentally smart passes. I get the sense he will eventually prove to be a good captain on offense, a coach on the floor. Not flashy, not breaking down defenses with his superior quickness, but regularly ticking off positive numbers in the +/- column. Making smart plays in pressure situations. Hitting clutch shots. Not saying he's John Stockton Jr, but I do see a steel in his play that suggests he does not care about anything other than winning. He plays bigger than his stature. Floor is a damned good back-up. Upside is a starting PG on a winning team, next to whatever high volume superstar we land in future drafts.

What I like about him over a guy like Topić is that he does know how to play both on and off the ball. Offense and defense alike. He knows how to influence the game and force his own opportunities. Get open in a split second to get his shot off. He has timing. Has that intuitive understanding of how to play, so he can fit in with any squad, and know when it is his moment to push. That is the part of the game that veterans eventually learn, but he comes into the league with a jumpstart. That's one reason I'd want him to understudy with Tyus. Learn the PG game from the record-holding ast/TO master. Add aggressively pesky defense, and surprising athleticism. That's a damned good player.

[J-Ves]

I am all for trading Kuzma now. We will have guys who need touches and he is just too shot happy. Plus I am tired of watching him.

I want 12 from OKC or 13 from Sac. If this is such a weak draft I think late lotto picks should be available.

[payitforward]

This man is Kyle Kuzma come again!

Huh?

You don’t agree with that comp? Rashard Lewis maybe?

I don't know his game nearly well enough to compare him to anyone in a meaningful way. But, I would hope to get someone a lot better than Kuz with the 2d pick in the draft.

[payitforward]

Danm I'd like to trade our 3 picks for Portland's 4 picks!

Sheppard, Salaun, Topic, or Castle at 7.
Devin Carter, Edey, Missi, or Collier at 14.
Pacome Dadiet at 34 -- or...?
KJ Simpson at 40.
Enrique Freeman undrafted.

Is it just me...?

Of course you would because their picks have way more value than ours considering the draft we’re in. Picking 2nd overall in this draft is no man’s land

Fair enough -- if I didn't think they "had more value" (i.e. would bring us more value in players) then, obviously, I wouldn't be hoping for such a trade.

[payitforward]

Trade Kuzma for draft picks! Sign and trade Jones for (at least partly) draft capital.

Agreed on Kuzma. But, I think Kuzma becomes more valuable as time goes on (with his contract). Agreed we should trade him for picks... but maybe at the deadline?

And if we can S&T Jones for more draft capital - heck yeah!

I also just think it's better value trading him for picks in another draft and spreading out the rookie footprint on the team over time. We are already potentially sent for 3 rookies from this class after adding 2 last year, that makes 5 players w/a partial season or less of experience heading into '24-'25. I very much doubt they move down. They stick and pick at 2, or trade out and I don't think they're trading out. If they move around with a pick, it's probably packaging future 2nds to move up from 26, or simply move down/or out from 26. I don't think they do anything with the 2 except take the best or 2nd best guy they've got on their board. I think the liklihood of anything else is probably sub 10, and maybe sub 5%.

I don't disagree. Just talking about what I'd like to see happen -- & experience tells me that my wanting the Wizards to do something doesn't make it more likely!

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I am all for trading Kuzma now. We will have guys who need touches and he is just too shot happy. Plus I am tired of watching him.

I want 12 from OKC or 13 from Sac. If this is such a weak draft I think late lotto picks should be available.

I'm starting to reassess Tyler Smith. There's a lot to like, 6-9 (w/o shoes), 7-1 wingspan, 19 yrs old, and pretty athletically dynamic. He's someone I'd be looking at in that range. The immediate comp for me is former Atlanta Hawk Josh Smith...

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[MDStar]

While I understand talent acquisition and I’m all for it on a team like ours, I just for the life of me, can’t understand the desire to select a forward. Isn’t the point of a rebuild, finding talent, developing that talent and then adding around those deemed talented enough, with more talent?

If not, then I just don’t get it. For all those advocating for drafting the next 6’9” forward, who’s either decent but not great at anything or great at one thing but bad at others, you are subjecting yourself to watching either that player or Deni, Bilal, Vuk or Corey on the bench, playing very limited minutes.

All I’ve heard for the last couple of years is, let the young players play and develop on the job. There are only so many positional minutes available, with even less usage available but there seems to be a considerable level of neglect to those facts as draft prospects for the Wizards are being considered. Especially when you actually look at the few pieces that we do actually already have on the roster. There are really only two worth mentioning:

Deni, who has taken steps to be a real potential piece for the future and Bilal, who general consensus was saying that if he had come out this year instead of last, would’ve been in the conversation for the top pick. (Btw - Bilal will not be a guard when it’s all said and done) If those two things are true, they need to continue to get a lot of minutes, so why bring in competition that could impede their development, as well as whoever the high draft pick is?

Hence the reason why I just dont see the drafting of Risacher, Salaun, Buzelis, Holland, or any other of the 76 SF/PF mentioned in a trade back scenario, as good asset or development management. Someone ultimately won’t play enough and the complaining about #sowizards will continue. Grab a center or a guard and keep the party going!

[payitforward]

Draft the best player available. Use trades to balance your roster.

"Trades" includes draft-night trades of course.

At the same time, it's worth mentioning that this is not an exact science! We make our best judgments, pick after pick, about who is "best," but we are not right very often -- certainly not 20% of the time! Not even close!

To take an obvious example, in 2011 the bpa was taken 3 times in the draft -- at 15, 30, & 60. That's it.

[DCZards]

I also just think it's better value trading him for picks in another draft and spreading out the rookie footprint on the team over time. We are already potentially sent for 3 rookies from this class after adding 2 last year, that makes 5 players w/a partial season or less of experience heading into '24-'25. I very much doubt they move down. They stick and pick at 2, or trade out and I don't think they're trading out. If they move around with a pick, it's probably packaging future 2nds to move up from 26, or simply move down/or out from 26. I don't think they do anything with the 2 except take the best or 2nd best guy they've got on their board. I think the liklihood of anything else is probably sub 10, and maybe sub 5%.

I’m all for trading to get additional picks in this year’s draft…but then again you do eventually butt up against the reality of finding the playing time to truly develop your young players if you have more than 3 or 4 on your NBA roster.

As you point out, the Zards already have at least two youngins’ on the roster that they’ll be looking to develop—Bilal and Vuckevic—and they’ll probably be adding at least two more (the first rd picks) in this year’s draft.

Plus there is at least one other young player (Jared Butler) that the Zards seem to want to develop and the FO may very well want to see more of what Baldwin has to offer potential wise.

And then there’s Johnny Davis. Doesn’t look to me like he’s got much of an NBA future but I could (and hopefully) be wrong.

[nate33]

That is a pretty damn good player, no? I mean if Gafford could have picked and popped and not just picked and rolled...

Also, I think that Sarr could eventually be much better at setting screens - I never felt that was one of Gafford's strengths (but I might be projecting).

This is part of the reason people are skeptical of paying through the nose for bigs though. Gafford was very good for us, a steal really, and fantastic for Dallas, and yet his going rate was a late first in the worst draft in a decade. A good reminder why we should sit on the idea of going after any of these centers unless its at 26 or the second round. Unless these guys are transformative mega talents, they are all treated like blocking/catch and fall TE's in the NFL. A dime a dozen. Even when they're actually better thant hat, like Gafford.

There are 4 of them in the NBA right now (in my mind), Jokic, Embiid, Sabonis & Adebayo. I don't think there is one of them in this year's draft. But I think one could argue that we can't "see" any of those players (center or otherwise) in this years' draft. Doesn't mean there isn't one though...

I'd include Anthony Davis in that group. And Wemby will be there by next year.

The way I look at it, there's 4 types of centers:

The Versatile Defenders with Shot Creation. These are probably the most coveted prototype. They anchor a defense with the ability to switch or drop, while also being pretty useful and versatile offensive players. They're typically not good enough on offense to be a first option, but they're more than just roll men. Examples are: Davis, Bam, Wemby, Draymond, Ayton (when he is trying), Mobley (eventually)

The Stretch 5's. They can pick and pop with a quick enough shot release that defenses have to worry about it. The better ones also provide good defense. Examples are: Porzingis, Chet, JJJ, KAT, Turner, Lopez

The Offensive Hubs. These guys are low post or high post players who you can give them the ball and expect them to either create a shot or an assist. The good ones are elite offensively and adequate defensively. The lousy ones are merely decent on offense and bad defensively. Examples are: Jokic, Embiid, Sabonis, Sengun, Nurkic, Vucevic, Valanciunas

The Rim Protector/Roll Men. These guys have a very limited offensive game. Basically, all they do is roll. The better ones can make good passes on the short roll. Most of these guys are drop coverage only on defense. Examples are: Gobert, Allen, Capela, Robinson, Zubac, Gafford, Hartenstein, Lively, Duren, Claxton, Poeltl.

Of these prototypes, I think the ones that really help you win are the "Versatile Defenders with Shot Creation" and the "Stretch 5's". Jokic and Embiid are the only "Offensive Hubs" that really lead to wins and that's because Embiid also brings elite defense, while Jokic is perhaps the greatest offensive player of all time. Otherwise, the prototype doesn't really work because it's so hard to overcome bad defense at the 5. Sabonis hasn't won a playoff series yet.

The Rim Protector/Roll Men are what you live with if you can't find a someone from one of the top 2 categories. You can advance pretty far with one of these guys, but you usually fall short of a title once you face an elite playmaking guard surrounded by shooting who can defeat drop coverage. Even the greatest defender of our era (Gobert) has only won 3 playoff series in 10 years. The goal of any guy in this category is to graduate into the Versatile Defender with Shot Creation category. Allen, Mobley and Lively have the potential to make that leap. Rim Protector/Roll Men are easy to find. Don't use a high pick for one unless you think he has potential to graduate into the VDWSC category.

[doclinkin]

While I understand talent acquisition and I’m all for it on a team like ours, I just for the life of me, can’t understand the desire to select a forward. Isn’t the point of a rebuild, finding talent, developing that talent and then adding around those deemed talented enough, with more talent?

If not, then I just don’t get it. For all those advocating for drafting the next 6’9” forward, who’s either decent but not great at anything or great at one thing but bad at others, you are subjecting yourself to watching either that player or Deni, Bilal, Vuk or Corey on the bench, playing very limited minutes.

All I’ve heard for the last couple of years is, let the young players play and develop on the job. There are only so many positional minutes available, with even less usage available but there seems to be a considerable level of neglect to those facts as draft prospects for the Wizards are being considered. Especially when you actually look at the few pieces that we do actually already have on the roster. There are really only two worth mentioning:

Deni, who has taken steps to be a real potential piece for the future and Bilal, who general consensus was saying that if he had come out this year instead of last, would’ve been in the conversation for the top pick. (Btw - Bilal will not be a guard when it’s all said and done) If those two things are true, they need to continue to get a lot of minutes, so why bring in competition that could impede their development, as well as whoever the high draft pick is?

Hence the reason why I just dont see the drafting of Risacher, Salaun, Buzelis, Holland, or any other of the 76 SF/PF mentioned in a trade back scenario, as good asset or development management. Someone ultimately won’t play enough and the complaining about #sowizards will continue. Grab a center or a guard and keep the party going!

Actually drafting for fit and playtime is one of the reasons to take Risacher in particular. Thing is not to look at him as a forward, since he plays as a 6'9" shooting guard. Who plays solid team defense. And has real range. And does not hog the ball. We spent most of last season with two undersized guys at guard, the better paid of the two a dribble-dancing shotjacker who never figured out how to play off the ball. A guy who had to babysit the ball for entire possessions while the defense settled into place, then fire a wild shot while teammates stood around wondering if they would ever get a touch.

In this role Zacc is the anti-Poole. His time-of-possession is minimal. His ast/TO ratio has been pretty much flateven this year, with low totals in both since he pretty much defers handling unless he has a clear lane. Occasionally he will dribble up court on a breakaway, but otherwise if he does not have a shot he passes instantly and moves to a better spot. He carved out a large role on a veteran team by being an ideal teammate. Starting on the bench but taking starter's minutes with his team play.

If Risacher develops as his game suggests though, he will be an ideal player to run next to Deni. Both are long rangy guys 6'9" and up. Deni plays best uptempo with quick decision makers next to him, he needs interior finishers and outside shooters to provide spacing for when he can draw PFs outside where his quickness is an advantage. Risacher has quick release catch and shoot game from 3 anywhere around the outside arc. (He will need a little adjustment time at the elbow extended since he is calibrated for the Euro 3 line, knowing exactly much space he has for a one-dribble side step to get his shot off). Risacher will readily dunk in traffic at full extension and has good hands to catch on the move. He makes fast decisions on and off the ball, looks to me like a good fit.

Together the two figure to play solid team defense, switchable on the outside with solid offball help on the interior. ZR is switchable 2-3 with some interior defense from the weakside. Avdija slides well 2-4 and occasionally can match a small ball 5. Pair them with a feisty and combative PG to pressure the ball, or an intimidating drop coverage big, and we have a solid start to offense/defense that plays with good chemistry.

As to other players on the roster. I see the point of PIFs assessment that you add best talent then trade for fit when you can. Though I also agree that sometimes this means you devalue the talent you have on your roster. They don't rack counting stats or highlights to draw advantageous trades. However, a 15 win team has nobody on the roster they can say they are building around. If the guy on the board is better than the guy already on your roster, you take him. On this roster there are only 2 guys you can make a case for in that regard, in Kispert or Blial.

Zacc's game is about quick release shooting and interior backdoor cuts, so in that respect he challenges Kispert for minutes. I can see an argument there. Kispert has played well, especially showing out in the 'garbage season' the past few years. (The #sowizards part of the season where we would generally play pointlessly well and challenge for the 10th seed, before that was even a thing). He has added to his game even on defense, going from unplayable to average at best. Still, while he is improving, Corey doesn't figure to become a star player no matter how many development minutes he gets. I like that his handle is improving, appreciate that he has added more than outside shooting to the squad, but Kispert's defense is not a strength, and the upside here is low. He is a solid role-player. If he were able to add more guard skills on both offense and defense then he adds another component. I think on offense that's possible, on defense less likely. But solid role players with outside shooting are excellent trade pieces. Meanwhile he's a good teammate and will help in the development of other players either while testing them in practice or battling them for PT. I don't see that he needs much in the way of developmental minutes.

Bilal is another story. He needs all the improvement possible to live up to his considerable potential. In fact what he needs most is what Risacher does well: play an efficient and decisive offball game on offense that forces teams to mark him. He has shown he can hit wide-open shots, now he needs to be able to hit them when challenged. Both he and ZR can stand improvement on their dribble-drive game. Bilal in particular coughs up the ball in traffic when pressured. ZR simply doesn't risk it when closely guarded. That said, Risacher has a very smart training team around him working on functional skills. From that I wonder if there might be synergy between the two. French speaking, familiar with each other's games, played against each other coming up. Both look like they may make the French national team over the next few years. If they work together and drill together and test each other then both may benefit from the other's skill sets. If Risacher can learn to get his shot off against Bilal's length and pressure, if Bilal picks up tips from whatever ZR's team is working on with him, who knows where that could lead. If both can be switchable at the 2/3 wing role then we have a the fittings of a nasty perimeter defense squad that can actually challenge the long ranged teams that rely on tall outside shooters themselves.

As for the others. Vuk can't play a 2-3 wing. He is a laterally challenged 4, or small ball 5, who needs weight and mobility to be able to defend better. He plays a different role. Baldwin, We can daydream about what sort of player PBJr may be, but so far he was fallen way short of his promise. We need starters, we need bench players, but more than anything we need stars. Pundits suggest we are unlikely to get a star at the top of the draft. So adding talent is the best we can hope for. And again a 15 win team has no expectation of adding for fit, in large part because of this last point. We might get significantly better by adding a defensive Big. But this year and the next we would be best served by NOT winning. By losing while learning. One way to do that is by positional redundancy and testing out players in roles outside of their natural position. See Spurs, Sochan eg.

I like a number of players in this draft. I like the idea of ZR though his mid season slump post concussion knocked my enthusiasm down a peg or two. More than anything I trust Dawkins and Winger and the crew. I think we have opportunities to do something interesting in the lead up to the draft and on draft night. And if they think Risacher is the guy at #2, I am willing to be happy about it. And when he breaks out I'll say I knew all along he'd be a good one.