2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

[Bob8]

Against the Timberwolves specifically, Jokic’s average prior EPM is +5.7 while Luka’s is +5 over 2 games.

Epm is a fine enough stat (in bigger samples) but you shouldnt use it as a rebuttal to actual basketbsll criticism

Not if you dont want to fall into the trap of anchoring all your basketball views to the most convenient all-in one/plus-minus derivative and then having to twist yourself into a pretzel about why curry rapm counts where chris paul doestn so you can continue ranking players based on it

Prior EPM is good enough for getting a very rough idea of what’s going on. Wouldn’t bet my life on it. It does suggest that Luka’s performance vs Jokic’s isn’t really the reason why Dallas has been better vs Minnesota and that you should look elsewhere for further investigation

This series is 3:0, because Luka with Kyrie help has made all important shots and plays in the clutch. I kinda doubt you can see that in EPM.

[GSP]

No playoff offense thats faced Luka has been worse at attacking him than these Wolves. We all know they were a mid offense thats even worse than their offensive rating in the halfcourt but damn. They dont know what to do w/ ballscreens. Even when they get him on Ant he calls a screen for some reason. Conley is the only one who effectively can do anything w/ it

Kat has been disastrous but I dont know how much of it is just missing shots. Ants been bad and his lack of high level Iq exposed. Then theres Rudy.... Defense is alot worse w/o Rudy hes also a factor in their offense being worse. He clogs an offense and his only valuable asset is setting screens and catching lobs. Wolves play 4 on 5 on offense w/ him. This is the same issue Utah had. Their defense falls off a cliff w/o him but their offense is hurt by his presence. He cant abuse the guards teams consistently put on him. He cant finish in traffic or contact, he cant pass, he cant do anything out of the short roll even Lively is already a much better and more advanced offensive player and hes a rookie. Even when he has a mismatch sealed he has some of the worst hands in the league so a brick or turnover is very likely which is why his teams dont trust to throw him the ball

Rudy just hurts his teams offense against great and smart defenses. Boxscore and advanced stats like ts% severely overrate his offensive impact. He isnt good for anything on offense but setting screens and catching lobs. Even after a screen is set hes not reliable to do anything on the catch unless he has an open lob. He is just a near useless offensive player. Hes not Mark Eaton bad on offense but hes not much better Tbh. When they tried posting him on Luka and he incredulously laughed at him after turning it over and then said something to the bench

Wolves actually got a lead and were trading buckets when they had Conley, Ant, Slomo, Kat, Naz lineup the offense was FAR better and while defense was worse they got the odd stop and at least were trading. Then when Rudy came back in the offense halted and bled into the defense and Dallas pulled away. If Rudys defense in drop or paint isnt good enough and Dallas is gonna blitz they might as well just bench him. If Kat shoots like this again its over but Id start Naz Reid Tbh hes been their best twoway big by far this series and really for a good portion of the playoffs

[Peregrine01]

Feel like people constantly underrate the impact of ball pressure on defense and, by the same token, the ability to beat ball pressure on offense. The Wolves completely suffocated the Nuggets and Suns with their press - made it hard for their guards to even get the ball past half-court. This hasn’t worked against Luka who just plods his way into the lane with his size and looks completely undeterred by anyone the Wolves throw at him. Now, Luka looked worse when he had guys like Lu Dort and Paul George on him but McDaniels, NAW and even Ant just don’t have the girth or size to bother him much.

This is why I feel like Boston matches up better against the Mavs since they have big, strong wings to throw at him.

[AEnigma]

No one on the Celtics is a tougher on-paper matchup for Luka than McDaniels is. Tatum has a similar build and Luka routinely torches him. Where the Celtics will have an advantage is in guarding Kyrie.

[tsherkin]

Feel like people constantly underrate the impact of ball pressure on defense and, by the same token, the ability to beat ball pressure on offense. The Wolves completely suffocated the Nuggets and Suns with their press - made it hard for their guards to even get the ball past half-court. This hasn’t worked against Luka who just plods his way into the lane with his size and looks completely undeterred by anyone the Wolves throw at him. Now, Luka looked worse when he had guys like Lu Dort and Paul George on him but McDaniels, NAW and even Ant just don’t have the girth or size to bother him much.

I thought McDaniels did a fine job most of the time, but this isn't the 70s; we all know how it goes. McDaniels pressures and bodies. Luka, either with strength of body, proficiency of handle, or a screen (often a screen) gets past the initial defender. And then it's done, because nothing the Wolves were doing inside 18 feet deterred Luka at all. He has nasty pull-up J, he transitions his slow drives into post-ups, and then you get smoked with a lob, a fadeaway, a stepback, or a pass.

Lather, rinse, repeat. With a complete offensive player, there's only so much you can do except hope that they're cold and try to pressure the ball out of their hands and hope his passes are frustrated a little and the roleplayers can't hit their shots.

Tatum isn't going to do anything to Luka. He had triple-doubles against Boston both times he played them this year and averaged 35 ppg against them. In one game, he shot 56% from the floor. He had a rough shooting night the other game, mainly from a rough second quarter, and otherwise torched them again. If Boston has a chance, it's going to be more about getting the ball out of Luka's hands and hoping that Kyrie and PJ aren't clicking, and then by virtue more of the Celtic offense than its defense, IMHO.

[Special_Puppy]

Why are the Wolves doing a worse job of containing the Mavericks than the Thunder and Clippers? Wolves have the worst DTG out of the 3 against the Mavs?

[Peregrine01]

Feel like people constantly underrate the impact of ball pressure on defense and, by the same token, the ability to beat ball pressure on offense. The Wolves completely suffocated the Nuggets and Suns with their press - made it hard for their guards to even get the ball past half-court. This hasn’t worked against Luka who just plods his way into the lane with his size and looks completely undeterred by anyone the Wolves throw at him. Now, Luka looked worse when he had guys like Lu Dort and Paul George on him but McDaniels, NAW and even Ant just don’t have the girth or size to bother him much.

I thought McDaniels did a fine job most of the time, but this isn't the 70s; we all know how it goes. McDaniels pressures and bodies. Luka, either with strength of body, proficiency of handle, or a screen (often a screen) gets past the initial defender. And then it's done, because nothing the Wolves were doing inside 18 feet deterred Luka at all. He has nasty pull-up J, he transitions his slow drives into post-ups, and then you get smoked with a lob, a fadeaway, a stepback, or a pass.

Lather, rinse, repeat. With a complete offensive player, there's only so much you can do except hope that they're cold and try to pressure the ball out of their hands and hope his passes are frustrated a little and the roleplayers can't hit their shots.

Tatum isn't going to do anything to Luka. He had triple-doubles against Boston both times he played them this year and averaged 35 ppg against them. In one game, he shot 56% from the floor. He had a rough shooting night the other game, mainly from a rough second quarter, and otherwise torched them again. If Boston has a chance, it's going to be more about getting the ball out of Luka's hands and hoping that Kyrie and PJ aren't clicking, and then by virtue more of the Celtic offense than its defense, IMHO.

Not allowing yourself to get screened is a huge part of the battle if not the most important part. Murray couldn't even get McDaniels off of him so that Jokic could set a clean screen whereas Luka wards him off with his free arm like he's a fly. Then he puts him in jail and gets to whatever he wants. Dort, by contrast, was much better able to get into Luka's body and absorb all the little bumps that Luka uses to give himself some space. McDaniels or NAW takes a bump and they go flying backwards...it's just night and day how much less they're able to bother him just on physicality alone. I think Minny would be better served putting Ant on Luka and McDaniels on Kyrie just because the strength match up would be better.

[Peregrine01]

Why are the Wolves doing a worse job of containing the Mavericks than the Thunder and Clippers? Wolves have the worst DTG out of the 3 against the Mavs?

Imo, it's match ups. Clips and Thunder have beefy wings that can bother Luka more off the bounce. Wolves defense is so predicated on their perimeter defenders fighting through screens so that Rudy can play in the drop. Luka is putting these dudes in jail and just carrying them to the rim forcing Rudy to have to defend two guys at the same time, one of which is probably the best pick and roll player in the game.

[tsherkin]

Not allowing yourself to get screened is a huge part of the battle if not the most important part.

There are times when that is literally impossible, especially when you have to plaster yourself as close to your guy as you do with Luka. You give him an inch, and he's gone.

Murray couldn't even get McDaniels off of him so that Jokic could set a clean screen whereas Luka wards him off with his free arm like he's a fly.

Right, but Murray is a 6'4 gnat and Luka is 6'8. McDaniels isn't considerably larger than Luka, so that comparison isn't really informative.

And again, even with size issues notwithstanding, Dallas does a good job of moving the ball, running DHOs and so forth. They throw so many different looks at you that it's quite challenging to lean into a single defensive strength.

Your remark about Dort is worth exploring, but Luka looks more mobile and a bit more spry in this series, so there might have been a contributing health factor. McDaniels is trying and bodying... and Doncic just dgaf. He's absorbing it, going around, getting screens, and just twisting him to his will. I don't know that Dort would have made a huge difference against this Luka, tbh.

I think Minny would be better served putting Ant on Luka and McDaniels on Kyrie just because the strength match up would be better.

We saw what happened when Ant was on Luka, and it was not good. McDaniels on Kyrie might be interesting, but at the expense of getting violently torched every possession Luka and Ant match up, I don't know that it's a good trade-off.

[Peregrine01]

Not allowing yourself to get screened is a huge part of the battle if not the most important part.

There are times when that is literally impossible, especially when you have to plaster yourself as close to your guy as you do with Luka. You give him an inch, and he's gone.

Murray couldn't even get McDaniels off of him so that Jokic could set a clean screen whereas Luka wards him off with his free arm like he's a fly.

Right, but Murray is a 6'4 gnat and Luka is 6'8. McDaniels isn't considerably larger than Luka, so that comparison isn't really informative.

And again, even with size issues notwithstanding, Dallas does a good job of moving the ball, running DHOs and so forth. They throw so many different looks at you that it's quite challenging to lean into a single defensive strength.

Your remark about Dort is worth exploring, but Luka looks more mobile and a bit more spry in this series, so there might have been a contributing health factor. McDaniels is trying and bodying... and Doncic just dgaf. He's absorbing it, going around, getting screens, and just twisting him to his will. I don't know that Dort would have made a huge difference against this Luka, tbh.

I think Minny would be better served putting Ant on Luka and McDaniels on Kyrie just because the strength match up would be better.

We saw what happened when Ant was on Luka, and it was not good. McDaniels on Kyrie might be interesting, but at the expense of getting violently torched every possession Luka and Ant match up, I don't know that it's a good trade-off.

What I'm trying to get at is how important match-ups are. McDaniels and NAW looked like they were outright terrorizing Murray and they're just getting big-boyed by Luka. Conversely, Dort looked amazing against Luka because he matches up well in size but my guess is that he wouldn't have been as effective against (healthy) Murray because of his movement off-ball. As they say, styles make fights.

Edit: I also don't like using injuries to wave away why Luka struggled so much against Dort. For one, that series ended only a week ago and two, playing through injuries tends to make it worse, not better.

[eminence]

Get real funky, bench KAT for Anderson, put him on Luka, McDaniels on Kyrie.

[bballcool34]

Feel like people constantly underrate the impact of ball pressure on defense and, by the same token, the ability to beat ball pressure on offense. The Wolves completely suffocated the Nuggets and Suns with their press - made it hard for their guards to even get the ball past half-court. This hasn’t worked against Luka who just plods his way into the lane with his size and looks completely undeterred by anyone the Wolves throw at him. Now, Luka looked worse when he had guys like Lu Dort and Paul George on him but McDaniels, NAW and even Ant just don’t have the girth or size to bother him much.

I thought McDaniels did a fine job most of the time, but this isn't the 70s; we all know how it goes. McDaniels pressures and bodies. Luka, either with strength of body, proficiency of handle, or a screen (often a screen) gets past the initial defender. And then it's done, because nothing the Wolves were doing inside 18 feet deterred Luka at all. He has nasty pull-up J, he transitions his slow drives into post-ups, and then you get smoked with a lob, a fadeaway, a stepback, or a pass.

Lather, rinse, repeat. With a complete offensive player, there's only so much you can do except hope that they're cold and try to pressure the ball out of their hands and hope his passes are frustrated a little and the roleplayers can't hit their shots.

Tatum isn't going to do anything to Luka. He had triple-doubles against Boston both times he played them this year and averaged 35 ppg against them. In one game, he shot 56% from the floor. He had a rough shooting night the other game, mainly from a rough second quarter, and otherwise torched them again. If Boston has a chance, it's going to be more about getting the ball out of Luka's hands and hoping that Kyrie and PJ aren't clicking, and then by virtue more of the Celtic offense than its defense, IMHO.

Thoughts on Jaylen and Jrue on Luka?

[bigboi]

No one on the Celtics is a tougher on-paper matchup for Luka than McDaniels is. Tatum has a similar build and Luka routinely torches him. Where the Celtics will have an advantage is in guarding Kyrie.

They can put Jaylen on Luka. Celtics have smacked both Dallas and Kyrie continuously

[Special_Puppy]

Don't have faith in the Celtics to stop the Mavericks, but Celtics should be able to torch the Mavericks defense

[tsherkin]

Thoughts on Jaylen and Jrue on Luka?

I don't think either has any more success than anyone else. One guy isn't going to guard Luka. If Boston slows him down, it will be with the quality of their rotations and traps. Minny has had some success in trying to force certain actions, denying the three initially, but that wasn't working super well. Obviously, if Lively isn't playing, then we'll have to see how Gafford and Powell do. But no individual defender is going to do THAT much against a player like Luka, particularly if his J is falling. With his size, neither Brown nor Holiday will frustrate his shot much, nor body him. With his post game, they can't frustrate him by using quickness to stay in front of him, and same same with his ability navigate the PnR as the handler, right? So again we return to "pick your poison."

Boston/Dallas will be an exercise in who can make shots, as derivative as that sounds. If Tatum's 3 is on, then it's going to be an interesting series. If Luka and Kyrie are both on, it won't be a long one, I think. But we shall see.

What I'm hoping for is that Tatum AND Luka/Kyrie are on, and everyone plays well, and we have a 7-game monstrosity of a series. I have been spending much time saying I don't think Tatum is a true superstar (yet?) these past days, but I'd love for him to hand me a Finals series FU in a dogfight with the Mavs.

And yeah, I think Boston is going to have a rough go trying to guard Luka. Even when he shoots poorly, he causes trouble for your defense with the way he requires so much attention and how he passes.

[tsherkin]

What I'm trying to get at is how important match-ups are.

Sure, that's a known truth. Matchups make a large difference, absolutely.

Edit: I also don't like using injuries to wave away why Luka struggled so much against Dort. For one, that series ended only a week ago and two, playing through injuries tends to make it worse, not better.

I don't think injuries are the whole reason; I think Dort did a good job. And I wonder if it isn't an aspect of conditioning more than injury, but I also recognize that you're trying to acknowledge Dort's efficacy, and I'm onboard with that as well. But also, Kyrie wasn't scoring 28 ppg against the Thunder, which shifts how the defense has to work and what opportunities Luka had to shuffle Dort around on the floor.

[Special_Puppy]

What % of the Mavs doing better than the Nuggets against the TWolves is because Luka is outplaying Jokic vs Kyrie outplaying Murray?

[Special_Puppy]

Epm is a fine enough stat (in bigger samples) but you shouldnt use it as a rebuttal to actual basketbsll criticism

Not if you dont want to fall into the trap of anchoring all your basketball views to the most convenient all-in one/plus-minus derivative and then having to twist yourself into a pretzel about why curry rapm counts where chris paul doestn so you can continue ranking players based on it

Prior EPM is good enough for getting a very rough idea of what’s going on. Wouldn’t bet my life on it. It does suggest that Luka’s performance vs Jokic’s isn’t really the reason why Dallas has been better vs Minnesota and that you should look elsewhere for further investigation

This series is 3:0, because Luka with Kyrie help has made all important shots and plays in the clutch. I kinda doubt you can see that in EPM.

Actually you can! Basically says that Jokic and Luka were both fantastic against the Wolves and that Kyrie has been substantially better than Murray

[Bob8]

Prior EPM is good enough for getting a very rough idea of what’s going on. Wouldn’t bet my life on it. It does suggest that Luka’s performance vs Jokic’s isn’t really the reason why Dallas has been better vs Minnesota and that you should look elsewhere for further investigation

This series is 3:0, because Luka with Kyrie help has made all important shots and plays in the clutch. I kinda doubt you can see that in EPM.

Actually you can! Basically says that Jokic and Luka were both fantastic against the Wolves and that Kyrie has been substantially better than Murray

You can't. What would result of the series been, if Luka didn't score winning 3 in game 2 and didn't make few clutch baskets in game 1, and would instead scored those 7 points in game 3?

[Peregrine01]

What % of the Mavs doing better than the Nuggets against the TWolves is because Luka is outplaying Jokic vs Kyrie outplaying Murray?

Tough to put a number on it because Luka and Kyrie overlap while Jokic and Murray play synergistically. It wasn’t just that Murray shot poorly but he had such difficulty even bringing the ball up the floor that by the time the nuggets could run anything they had less than 10 seconds on the clock. It just threw a wrench in everything.