**NBA Draft Discussion 2024**

[greg4012]

You all know I'm a Bub head. I go back and forth between him and Collier as the highest upside guard prospect that could fall to us.

I legit think Bub can emerge as one of the best overall shooters from this class

[MettaWorldPanda]

So if the Heat retain No. 15, and with Simon higher on this year’s draft class than some others, selecting for in the moment or for the future?

“I’m not drafting for the team we have. I’m going to recommend the players one through 15, one through 58, based on who I think the best players are,” Simon said, with the Heat also picking at No. 43 in the second round, and two picks of the 60 overall picks this year forfeited by other teams due to NBA violations. “Our roster changes. Our roster could change this summer. Our roster will change. It’s just inevitable, free agents, whether some players are with us in two years, three years, five years, 15 years.

“So the last thing I want to do is we pass on a player who was better because we took a player based on need.”

I like Simon’s quote here. Means we won’t force the need for a big if someone like Bub who’s only 18 really sticks out.

[greg4012]

A few points on Holmes since the concerns with his profile are clear and I've been looking into them, as well as his strengths, to understand his game and fit with Miami:

1) Concerns regarding if his 3 pt shooting is real or not:

Can never say for certain, but out of all the potential first round shooting BIGs, I see as much or more reason to buy into his 3 pt shooting translating as any other true Big:

Filipowski: 3.1 3PA per game (12.1 FGA); 35% 3PT; 67% FT
Holmes: 2.5 3PA per game (12.1 FGA); 39% 3PT; 71% FT
Ware: 1.3 3PA per game (10.7 FGA); 42.5% 3PT; 63% FT
Precious (college): 1.3 3PA (11.9 FGA); 32.5% 3PT; 59.9% FT

Edey, Clingan, Missi, and others didn't take enough 3s to register.

Now let's add in the 1st round PF prospects for more context:

Cody Williams: 1.7 3PA per game (8.1 FGA); 42% 3PT; 71% FT
Matas Buzelis: 3.4 3PA per game (12.2 FGA); 27.3%; 68% FT
Tristan Da Silva: 4.8 3PA per game (11.8 FGA); 40% 3PT; 84% FT
Tyler Smith: 4 3PA per game (9.9 FGA); 36.4%; 72.5% FT

Based on the above info, and having watched some tape on each of these, I'm ranking Holmes as the best shooting BIG prospect out of the group. If we include the true PFs (some of which are more combo forwards), Tristan Da Silva is notches above everyone else as a shooting prospect, then the next group for me is Tyler Smith, Daron Holmes, Cody Williams, and maaayybbee Flip (mostly because he has an aesthetic shot--but so does Buzelis).

Holmes has the second most overall length of all the 3 pt shooting prospects listed. Ware is obviously #1.

If we want to extract total 3PAs from all college seasons for the BIG prospects, Holmes leads the group at 36%, Ware at 34%, and Flip at 31% (Flip had the most 3PAs by a good margin).

2) Does he have the size to bump with Bigs?

Holmes is limited as a Center prospect as he's 6'9 without shoes with a 7'1 wingspan and 9' standing reach. He measured at a sturdy 236 pounds, but given his high cut frame and the fact that part of his value proposition is frontcourt versatility (to play alongside Bam and/or Jovic), I don't expect him to add too much more bulk.

It is worth noting, that independent of his size, he has real shotblocking chops. He has the 5th best block percentage of the draft pool--behind only non-shooting players (centers and Dunn). He clears the entire shooting group referenced in point 1 with block percentage (including Precious). He also averaged the 2nd most STOCKS (3.0) of any college prospect in this draft behind only Ryan Dunn.

Holmes himself indicated in an interview that the NBA players whose games he seeks to emulate are guys like Naz Reid, Pascal Siakam, and Al Horford (he's actually longer than Horford!). He measures similarly and favorably with each. All 3 have some frontcourt versatility (Pascal less than the other 2).

I see Holmes as a guy who should work primarily as a PF with backup center functionality. It's worth noting that Holmes had the 7th most dunks in the NCAA this past season (behind Only Edey and Mogbo among draft prospects). Last season he had the 2nd most dunks in the NCAA. As a freshman he was 6th. Dude be dunkin on fools.

3) Does he have the perimeter game to play PF?

I believe Daron is just a hooper that will adapt to the role he needs to play and build up his skillset accordingly. Considering he's an older prospect (3-year college player), that's the most important thing for me to see--that he didn't stay stagnant as a player/prospect. Year over year he took on new roles and expanded his game. That's a hugely positive indicator for me.

Year 1--rim runner and paint protector
Year 2--took the reins as primary option for the team and built off his game with a back to the basket post game in addition to his PnR prowess
Year 3--further elevated his game as the primary option (and dealing with a lot of doubles) by becoming more perimeter oriented--shooting 3s, driving off closeouts, creating for others.

I'll try not to get too long-winded here, and I'll just note that Holmes' assist percentage (18.7%) was higher than every other prospect referenced in this post (including the wings and Flip and def more than Precious)


Overall, it's his blend of PF and C game that appeals to me as a prospect for the Heat. A guy that can serve as the rim protector, hang on the perimeter (great balance & body control), hit the 3, screen & finish as a rim runner, play with either Bam or Jovic in the frontcourt, AND has shown some ballhandling, passing and creation chops for a big sounds pretty damn good to me.

[greg4012]

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[MettaWorldPanda]

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[lastb1ckman]

Has all the measurables and combine numbers but something just seems off with him in terms of fire or in better term seems to be lacking that dog in him. Gets tossed around by more physical players. Seems allergic to screening.

People just see 7’0 with 7’4 wingspan who can block some shots and shoot the occasional 3 and think yeah that’s what we need next to Bam. His 63% percent FT shooting is also concerning and also points to his 3 point shooting not being trusted at the next level. Someone like Yves Missi on the other hand you can see the fire jump off on the tape.

It’s a shame he’s lacking a true 3 ball or stretch capability. DaRon Holmes looks like the truest multifaceted stretch big that can help us on both ends. I like Tristan da Silva as well but he won’t help us down low as much as a Holmes would.

Tyler Smith is looking like a sweet shooting 5/4 at 6’11 with 7’1 wingspan but he also seems a bit soft. Kyle Filipowski looks like a great fit with Bam and does all the little things like screen and rebound. Doubt he’ll be a shotblocking threat much but plays high IQ ball and will do all the things that Spo loves that will keep him on the court with Bam.

Kyle Filipowski 7’0 6’10.5 wingspan weight 230

DaRon Holmes 6’10 7’1 wingspan weight 235

Tristan da Silva 6’9 6’10 wingspan weight 220

For Comparison with our current front court

Bam Adebayo 6’9 7’1 wingspan 7’1 255 weight

Nikola Jovic 6’10 wingspan 7’0 240 weight

Bam is incredibly strong at 255 that allows him to play the Center spot with no issues. Jovic put on an incredible amount of weight as he grows into his man body that allows him to be a 4/5 player. For me DaRon Holmes presents the best fit that can compliment both Bam and Jovic with his stretch skill set but also able to play the Bam role with Jovic and protect the paint.

I'd say Tyler Smith straight up doesn't know how to play NBA level defense yet. The amount of lapses and straight up confusion I have seen in some of his footage puts him below even rookie Jovic to me there. Along with being a bit light and weak still, I don't see him fitting on the Heat, especially in a way that ever helps Bam.

You see Tyler Smith starting to get rebranded as a "big wing" prospect? Kinda funny but I guess it makes sense to make the package more appealing, because I don't see any way he ends up doing the big man things at the NBA level from what I've seen so far. Tyler Smith as a wing opens up a whole new slate of issues, tho.

Eh, i don't know if he has the ball handling, lateral quickness, or awareness to play on the wing. He mostly strikes me as the typical nba 3&D 4 at his ceiling. Stretches the floor, can get up for lobs, defends small ball centers and forwards (when he figures it out), but not much of an in between game to speak of. Probably will struggle at defending guards or true centers. Maybe like a Jabari Smith Jr.

[lastb1ckman]

Has all the measurables and combine numbers but something just seems off with him in terms of fire or in better term seems to be lacking that dog in him. Gets tossed around by more physical players. Seems allergic to screening.

People just see 7’0 with 7’4 wingspan who can block some shots and shoot the occasional 3 and think yeah that’s what we need next to Bam. His 63% percent FT shooting is also concerning and also points to his 3 point shooting not being trusted at the next level. Someone like Yves Missi on the other hand you can see the fire jump off on the tape.

It’s a shame he’s lacking a true 3 ball or stretch capability. DaRon Holmes looks like the truest multifaceted stretch big that can help us on both ends. I like Tristan da Silva as well but he won’t help us down low as much as a Holmes would.

Tyler Smith is looking like a sweet shooting 5/4 at 6’11 with 7’1 wingspan but he also seems a bit soft. Kyle Filipowski looks like a great fit with Bam and does all the little things like screen and rebound. Doubt he’ll be a shotblocking threat much but plays high IQ ball and will do all the things that Spo loves that will keep him on the court with Bam.

Kyle Filipowski 7’0 6’10.5 wingspan weight 230

DaRon Holmes 6’10 7’1 wingspan weight 235

Tristan da Silva 6’9 6’10 wingspan weight 220

For Comparison with our current front court

Bam Adebayo 6’9 7’1 wingspan 7’1 255 weight

Nikola Jovic 6’10 wingspan 7’0 240 weight

Bam is incredibly strong at 255 that allows him to play the Center spot with no issues. Jovic put on an incredible amount of weight as he grows into his man body that allows him to be a 4/5 player. For me DaRon Holmes presents the best fit that can compliment both Bam and Jovic with his stretch skill set but also able to play the Bam role with Jovic and protect the paint.

I'd say Tyler Smith straight up doesn't know how to play NBA level defense yet. The amount of lapses and straight up confusion I have seen in some of his footage puts him below even rookie Jovic to me there. Along with being a bit light and weak still, I don't see him fitting on the Heat, especially in a way that ever helps Bam.

You see Tyler Smith starting to get rebranded as a "big wing" prospect? Kinda funny but I guess it makes sense to make the package more appealing, because I don't see any way he ends up doing the big man things at the NBA level from what I've seen so far. Tyler Smith as a wing opens up a whole new slate of issues, tho.

Eh, i don't know if he has the ball handling, lateral quickness, or awareness to play on the wing. He mostly strikes me as the typical nba 3&D 4 at his ceiling. Stretches the floor, can get up for lobs, defends small ball centers and forwards (when he figures it out), but not much of an in between game to speak of. Probably will struggle at defending guards or true centers. Maybe like a Jabari Smith Jr.

[MettaWorldPanda]

A few points on Holmes since the concerns with his profile are clear and I've been looking into them, as well as his strengths, to understand his game and fit with Miami:

1) Concerns regarding if his 3 pt shooting is real or not:

Can never say for certain, but out of all the potential first round shooting BIGs, I see as much or more reason to buy into his 3 pt shooting translating as any other true Big:

Filipowski: 3.1 3PA per game (12.1 FGA); 35% 3PT; 67% FT
Holmes: 2.5 3PA per game (12.1 FGA); 39% 3PT; 71% FT
Ware: 1.3 3PA per game (10.7 FGA); 42.5% 3PT; 63% FT
Precious (college): 1.3 3PA (11.9 FGA); 32.5% 3PT; 59.9% FT

Edey, Clingan, Missi, and others didn't take enough 3s to register.

Now let's add in the 1st round PF prospects for more context:

Cody Williams: 1.7 3PA per game (8.1 FGA); 42% 3PT; 71% FT
Matas Buzelis: 3.4 3PA per game (12.2 FGA); 27.3%; 68% FT
Tristan Da Silva: 4.8 3PA per game (11.8 FGA); 40% 3PT; 84% FT
Tyler Smith: 4 3PA per game (9.9 FGA); 36.4%; 72.5% FT

Based on the above info, and having watched some tape on each of these, I'm ranking Holmes as the best shooting BIG prospect out of the group. If we include the true PFs (some of which are more combo forwards), Tristan Da Silva is notches above everyone else as a shooting prospect, then the next group for me is Tyler Smith, Daron Holmes, Cody Williams, and maaayybbee Flip (mostly because he has an aesthetic shot--but so does Buzelis).

Holmes has the second most overall length of all the 3 pt shooting prospects listed. Ware is obviously #1.

If we want to extract total 3PAs from all college seasons for the BIG prospects, Holmes leads the group at 36%, Ware at 34%, and Flip at 31% (Flip had the most 3PAs by a good margin).

2) Does he have the size to bump with Bigs?

Holmes is limited as a Center prospect as he's 6'9 without shoes with a 7'1 wingspan and 9' standing reach. He measured at a sturdy 236 pounds, but given his high cut frame and the fact that part of his value proposition is frontcourt versatility (to play alongside Bam and/or Jovic), I don't expect him to add too much more bulk.

It is worth noting, that independent of his size, he has real shotblocking chops. He has the 5th best block percentage of the draft pool--behind only non-shooting players (centers and Dunn). He clears the entire shooting group referenced in point 1 with block percentage (including Precious). He also averaged the 2nd most STOCKS (3.0) of any college prospect in this draft behind only Ryan Dunn.

Holmes himself indicated in an interview that the NBA players whose games he seeks to emulate are guys like Naz Reid, Pascal Siakam, and Al Horford. He measures similarly and favorably with each. All 3 have some frontcourt versatility (Pascal less than the other 2).

I see Holmes as a guy who should work primarily as a PF with backup center functionality.

3) Does he have the perimeter game to play PF?

I believe Daron is just a hooper that will adapt to the role he needs to play and build up his skillset accordingly. Considering he's an older prospect (3-year college player), that's the most important thing for me to see--that he didn't stay stagnant as a player/prospect. Year over year he took on new roles and expanded his game. That's a hugely positive indicator for me.

Year 1--rim runner and paint protector
Year 2--took the reins as primary option for the team and built off his game with a back to the basket post game in addition to his PnR prowess
Year 3--further elevated his game as the primary option (and dealing with a lot of doubles) by becoming more perimeter oriented--shooting 3s, driving off closeouts, creating for others.

I'll try not to get too long-winded here, and I'll just note that Holmes' assist percentage (18.7%) was higher than every other prospect referenced in this post (including the wings and Flip and def more than Precious)


Overall, it's his blend of PF and C game that appeals to me as a prospect for the Heat. A guy that can serve as the rim protector, hang on the perimeter (great balance & body control), hit the 3, screen & finish as a rim runner, play with either Bam or Jovic in the frontcourt, AND has shown some ballhandling, passing and creation chops for a big sounds pretty damn good to me.

Fantastic breakdown. Many And1’s

[MettaWorldPanda]

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If we go guard first pick then it’s all aboard the Adem
Bona at pick 42 hype train.

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[MettaWorldPanda]

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[MettaWorldPanda]

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Honorable mention for our second round pick. If he can develop any sort of corner three look out. Local kid from WPB too.

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[greg4012]

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Honorable mention for our second round pick. If he can develop any sort of corner three look out. Local kid from WPB too.

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If he's there with our 2nd round pick, we NEED to take on this project.

[MettaWorldPanda]

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Honorable mention for our second round pick. If he can develop any sort of corner three look out. Local kid from WPB too.

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If he's there with our 2nd round pick, we NEED to take on this project.

Coach Spo lab room prototype small ball 4.

[greg4012]

Becoming OG Anunoby (with better passing instincts) can realistically be in his range of outcomes.

Obviously not to be expected.

Still, I can see him ending up going round 1. I think I highlighted him a page or 2 ago.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Becoming OG Anunoby (with better passing instincts) can realistically be in his range of outcomes.

Obviously not to be expected.

Still, I can see him ending up going round 1.

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[dolphinatik]

Whoever we get needs to be able to play above the rim and get to the bucket and/or protect the paint. Looks like another solid draft that is wide open. No big names, no hype I'm good with that. Measurable are not as important what they flash and how the heat can maximize them. Yawll said I was wrong about Jaden McDaniel but you could see it in his eyes over the attitude and effort concerns ppl had. Jjj was an incredible find, simply incredible. I don't even think the heat knew the full. I trust they will make the right choice.

[MettaWorldPanda]

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Top right hand corner 1:00 in. Is that Adam Simon with the bald head and beard? Sure does look like him

[greg4012]

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Isaiah Crawford is the round 2 version of Tristan Da Silva. Not as high level of a pure shooter, but a very promising 3&D wing prospect.

[lastb1ckman]

You all know I'm a Bub head. I go back and forth between him and Collier as the highest upside guard prospect that could fall to us.

I legit think Bub can emerge as one of the best overall shooters from this class

I like Bub too, he has a very modern nba game. My main issue with him is a bit of the inverse of Collier. I don't know if he'll be a reliable finisher at the rim or have very good interior presence, but I believe he'll definitely shoot it well. I don't know if Collier can ever shoot well, but I know he can finish well and strong around the rim.

[greg4012]

You all know I'm a Bub head. I go back and forth between him and Collier as the highest upside guard prospect that could fall to us.

I legit think Bub can emerge as one of the best overall shooters from this class

I like Bub too, he has a very modern nba game. My main issue with him is a bit of the inverse of Collier. I don't know if he'll be a reliable finisher at the rim or have very good interior presence, but I believe he'll definitely shoot it well. I don't know if Collier can ever shoot well, but I know he can finish well and strong around the rim.

Yup that's def the big question. I can excuse some of it away due to him being one of the youngest players in this draft (maybe the youngest?). I believe he turned 18 just before his freshman season started. The hope is that he continues to grow into his frame and gets stronger making the inside work come easier to him.

As it stands, I project Bub as a version of Immanuel Quickley--but with a lot more encouraging upside indicators. Some prior thoughts I had organized on this player type comp:

The biggest things for Bub are (1) more consistently extend his shotmaking to 3-point range; and (2) gain enough strength and power to improve paint penetration and rim finishing (this should also help him as a defender).

While stylistically similar in play style and athletic traits, I'm seeing signs that Bub is just a notch above Quickley as a prospect. He's a little longer--nearly 6'4 vs 6'2 (same wingspan), may be gaining weight a bit easier (both entered college around 175; Bub just weighed 195 at the combine; Quickley weighed 186 at the combine), and progressing at a younger age than Quickley.

As for his shooting, Bub has obviously shown flashes despite working with a pretty tough shot diet. He was on fire from 3 early in the season and tapered off. Still, 50% shooting on 2-point jumpshots is pretty sweet and indicative of his pull up game overall. If he can become more reliable as a spot up shooter, I think he can be a lethal shooter in the league.

Bub will play his entire rookie season as a 19 year old, whereas Quickley was a 21 year old for his rookie season (played 2 years in college).

Quickley had similarly deficient slashing numbers for his 2 years in college. His rim finishing has gotten better in the NBA (above 65% after his rookie season). If Bub can improve this part of his game at a similar rate, I think he's well positioned to be a Quickley+ level guard in the NBA.

Quickley (as a 20-year old Soph): 15% of FGA at the rim; 48% FG% at rim
Bub (18-year old frosh): 14% of FGA at the rim; 53.7% FG% at rim