OKC Thunder 2023-24 Regular Season Discussion

[ThunderBolt]

Dallas has salavaged the KP trade and losing Brunson. Part of the issue with building around Luka is he made the team good so soon they weren't able to surround him with quality draft picks. Missing on DSJ the year before didn't help either. I could see SAS being in the same situatino with Wemby if they miss on their picks.

[Mr Thunder Nick]

I'm still for the addition of Jarret Allen from the Cavs . He has still a 2 year 40 Mil contrat. That would very well fit in our Salary cap.

[Clav]

One thing I was looking at yesterday caught my eye, topic - Jaylin Williams. Might not be a lost cause completely...

Many of us here have mentioned he is not the answer to our roster, and that played out in real-time in the playoffs to some extent. That being said, I do think Williams has a place in the league and I was surprised to see that a few #'s play out to his advantage vs his draft class.

Quick recap:

2022 Draft included JalenW, Chet, and Jaylin [+ Dieng via trade] for us - JDub and Holmgren, along with Walker Kessler are sporting +3 Value Above Replacement Player, and all are above +.168 Win Shares, and all 3 sport a positive Box Plus Minus - all have logged over 2.4k minutes so there's a lot of promising things here from the top 3 in some advanced categories tracked by BBallRef. Awesome that we have the #1, and the #2 best players in this draft [so far].

Jaylin Williams is at #9 when sorted by Value above replacement player, and is by far beating his 2nd round selection compared to his peers.

Vince Williams Jr (MEM) is the only other 2022 Draft 2nd Round selection with positive VORP (+0.3) and Jaylin Williams is at +0.8.

Picks BEFORE JayWill also are not quite there, but I will concede that some of those players have not been given as much of chance on their respective teams.

From Pick #23 to Williams at #34, every player except Jovic has negative or 0.0 VORP. And above that, only Kessler[#22] is positive until we reach Eason[#17] and above that, we see some positive players.

Jaylin is sporting the 4th best 3-pt %age as well compared to his draft class, right behind Jalen Williams. The two leaders have logged less than 300 minutes each (Ryan Rollins and Moussa Diabate) so they are pretty much negligible at this point. His volume of course is much less than Keegan Murray at #5 in 3-pt %age, but when shooting, he isn't a complete wash. Anyway, some interesting points of interest here. What do you guys make of this ?

*As always, advanced stats are not the perfect indicator of a player's game. Take it with a grain of salt

[Kizz Fastfists]

I'm not one to rip on Jaylin. I like him as a player and his role is fine. The issue is they need another big man in the starting lineup so you have the option of always having two big men on the floor. This is where replacing Giddey in the starting lineup with another big man has been my issue. I don't know how hard it would be to pry Wendall Carter Jr. from Orlando, but he would fit well on the team. There are some other players that would fit, but he would be a solid acquisition.

If Kevin Love declines his player option he would be a solid FA signing. Jalen Smith would be an interesting option if he declines his player option. Jabari Smith Jr. would be a dream trade, but I'm not sure Houston would move him. Tari Eason is another good trade target, but again I don't know if Houston would be open to moving him. Lauri is obviously the biggest potential trade target, but I assume Ainge's refusal to move him at the deadline is an indicator that he's not willing to trade him. If LeBron opts out I wonder if they could get him to OKC. LeBron could push OKC over the top and then be a player that won rings on 4 teams and he could have some fun in the media talking about his legacy and how KD ran from the challenge, but OKC is a great organization and he doesn't understand why KD left. The ego thing might actually make LeBron interested even with OKC being a smaller market. Tobias Harris could be a good FA signing.

There are a lot of options for Presti to explore, but I'm not expecting any of them. I figure the biggest move is on draft night with Cody Williams or Knecht and then some lip service to internal development and maybe take a bad contract for a late 1st or a 2nd round pick to add Chomche, who I see as a very Presti type of player. I just have no faith in Presti to actually improving the roster despite the knowledge that the cap is going to be increasing drastically soon with the new TV deal and the roster hole that is obvious to ever toddler Thunder fan.

[Dadouv47]

Jwill was way better than I thought during the POs even if we need an upgrade.

Tobias Harris on a two year contract could make sense. I don't love the idea at all but I'm worried we can't find better.

[Clav]

Yes I'm not necessarily saying JWill is the answer for our team, but he could be much worse

Wendell Carter Jr is a solid choice for a trade target though he has had some injuries - in the POs he shot pretty poorly for ORL [in his first Playoff appearance]. There's hope he can be better because his RS was pretty good overall.

Harris would be fine for me too, but please...not a massive contract, something reasonable... I think some team will offer him more money than us.

[Bremzi]

At the time of the trade, Presti likely didnt count Dallas would be so improved. There were questions of Luka staying long-term if the team wouldnt improve. He might also get injured or be out of prime, since he is playing profesionaly for almost a decade.

Moreover, at that time Kyrie will be 36 and Luka will have a close to 70-80 mil a year salary cap situation with a restrictive new cap. Mavs have sold their future firstrounders and it is hard to imagine jow they improve their team in FA. They might not be able to even retain Derrick Jones JR this year as they can offer him cca 12 mil (OKC could even steal him with a larger offer). Also - at the time of the trade, Hayward had the better season per game than PJ washington did. Hindsight of course, but it isnt out of the unimaginable that pick turns into a lottery pick (hell, even last year with Kyrie dallas missed the play-in). Whereas I dont believe that OKC could be worse than Dallas in 2028 with young bucks JDub Chet MVP lvl SGA and the incoming talent infuse through picks.

Even though SGA is slightly older than Luka, Luka has been playing for longer and at larger minutes. He is also way bigger and noone really knows how much his suboptimal weight is translating to joint issues. His game type isnt really based on athleticism, but your body still needs to be able to run jump pivot on hard wood for 35 mins a game for 80-90-100 games a year (he also plays for the national team every year and Dallas usually has long series). For what its worth, that could be the #1 pick in 2028 if you look that last year they were 10th and this year Atlanta got the #1 pick at 10. Do you know how difficult it is to get an unrestricted pick back in trades for a rotational player so many years out? Even Denver picks in 2027-2029 or whatever the case is have 1-5 protection on them and they were the freaking champs.

Where to begin with this mess of nonsense. The Dallas pick can not be #1 as it is top 2 protected not unrestricted. It is a pick SWAP not a pick. OKC has to give up their FRP that year to get it. Chet is more likely to get injured, as a lean 7 footer with a history of foot problems, and miss extended time than Luka. Dallas was a lottery team last year because Kyrie was only there for 20 games after they traded for him. Their second best player before adding Kyrie was Christian Wood or Dinwiddie, take your pick. Dallas built their team in the last 18 months. You think they won't be able to replace Kyrie as he ages with the cap projected to soar with the new $8B TV deal? Dallas will find some team, like OKC, to eat Hardaway's salary for a 2nd round pick or two to resign DJJ with no issues. Just like they dumped Bertans on OKC and still got the player they wanted moving down two spots in the draft. Dallas has been in the WCF two of the last three years and the playoffs four of the last five. You really want to gamble on that pick being in a random down year? I'll take that bet.

Are you seriously comparing PPG with 30+ MPG on a losing team to the role that the players would play in OKC? Do you think that stat matters more than efficiency, rebounding percentage, defensive +/- and all the things that actually count for a role player on a contender? If that is what you are looking at then Hayward should have come in as the starter and continued getting 12 shots a game, instead of being a bench player getting 4 shots a game to try to let him reach those numbers and destroy OKC's playoff seeding and put them out of the playoffs in the first round. This board had been discussing the fit of P.J. Washington since last off-season. Everyone who follows the Thunder knew Washington was a great fit and everyone knew Hayward had lost any ability to rebound, play defense or be effective as a NBA player.

Luka has been playing in the NBA the same number of years as SGA. Luka has played more games and minutes because he has been healthier and leading his team deep into the playoffs consistently. I guess that could change, but I wouldn't want to put money on Luka suddenly becoming Embiid. Dallas has proven over a long period of time that they know how to fill out a roster around a superstar player. They did it with Dirk and they are doing it with Luka. Hindsight? Did OKC only become the top team in the West after the trade deadline? Trading for Hayward was a tanking move. It was discussed at the time of the trade that it made OKC worse. If you are going to call something hindsight don't let it be in print in the same thread you are posting in. Did you miss all those posts? Do I need to link them for you? Luka is bigger? Yes, that's why he can do things that most players can't. Luka's not athletic? Yet he somehow puts up over 30-9-9. Imagine if he were an athlete worthy of being in the NBA. James Harden, who I assume you'd call athletic, is 6'6 220 and Luka is 6'7 and 230. How bad has playing at that height/weight ratio hurt Harden?

Your post is a mess. That 2028 Dallas pick is a pickswap and unprotected. If OKC has the #28-30 pick in that year it can very well get a solid lottery pick instead of a pretty much useless late first round pick.

You cant compare Chet with Luka because they play different positions. The question is more whether you think Luka can stay as healthy as Shai? I dont think so. Luka did not play much more the first few years in the NBA because he was so much healthier, he played more bexause he was as good as he was that early. His career longevity at 25~ is much longer than basically any other current player at his age. Regarding Chet - he can be compared to Lively and tbh Chet played every single game this year. He might be thin but he clearly is not injury prone as it seems. He had an odd injury - guess what, bone heals. Proprioceptively, he had no ankle sprains etc and thats great news.

Regarding Mavs cap - no, if Luka is being paid 70-80 mil and Kyrie becomes old, they wont find it easy to replace him. Do you know who was a good free agent who signed in Dallas in the last 10+ years? There are none. Actually, they traded for KP, lost Brunson, traded for Kyrie and they dont have any trade ammo + a bunch of people signed. Unless you think they will let PJ DJJ Gafford Green etc walk in order to get under the cap enough. Like I said, they cant even resign DJJ on anything other than MLE, meaning they are so far from any cap space that they’d have to ship out half a team in order to bring anyone of value back.

Like I said, noone expected Dallas to improve so much post trade deadline. I’m pretty sure Presti wouldnt do it again if he knew what he knows now. He helped them get Lively and Gafford himself. But that unprotected pick swap in 2028 could prove very valueable. Either way, we cant know what this year’s cap space will amount to in the offseason. One clear signal in the Hayward trade was to get also the space in the summer. You’ll be speaking a different tune if someone ‘solid’ gets traded to OKC.

[ThunderBolt]

If Luke remains tubby from beer drinking, the injuries will start to catch up to him. Alcohol has a huge effect on recovery. Once I quit drinking I couldn’t believe how much better I recovered from workouts.

[Devilanche]

Jaylin is sporting the 4th best 3-pt %age as well compared to his draft class, right behind Jalen Williams. The two leaders have logged less than 300 minutes each (Ryan Rollins and Moussa Diabate) so they are pretty much negligible at this point. His volume of course is much less than Keegan Murray at #5 in 3-pt %age, but when shooting, he isn't a complete wash. Anyway, some interesting points of interest here. What do you guys make of this ?

He will be more well rounded as he ages but I still want at least 1 more ready now big this offseason.

Am ok with 1 vet + 1 younger big but not no vet big .

[Dadouv47]

Post deadline regular season Mavs was not a fluke. Chet doing as well as Gobert/KAT. I still think our team was as good as the Mavs so I'm pissed but lack of experience cost us the series (and yeah obviously not adding a good piece at the deadline didn't help)

[Dadouv47]

Can't see a better window than the next 2-3 seasons to win a Championship. There are a lot of good teams but not one that we couldn't beat. Dallas is great but unlikely to improve a lot, Nuggets won't be better than in 2023, Minny almost peaked (could improve with Ant prime) and some other teams could challenge us but are not scary good either (Memphis for example).

We got unlucky in our previous era with injuries but also facing some historic great teams like Spurs/GSW/Heat.

West is stacked but it's still the easiest path to win a chip in the last 15 years, Shai is in his prime and we have assets + cap space. This is our best odds to win a Championship since the Thunder exist and it's not close. Timing is now so Presti better understand it...if we get unlucky again so be it but at least gotta give our best shot to achieve it.

[Dadouv47]

Read on Twitter

won't learn anything...maybe a small idea about Giddey's future.

[Big nick]

Read on Twitter

won't learn anything...maybe a small idea about Giddey's future.

Any ideas Where is watch or listen.

[Clav]

Read on Twitter

won't learn anything...maybe a small idea about Giddey's future.

Any ideas Where is watch or listen.

the OKC Thunder YouTube channel usually posts it after it concludes.

[Big nick]

Thankyou

[Dadouv47]

Read on Twitter

I like this quote.

[ThunderBolt]

Read on Twitter

?

Read on Twitter

Gross. Between RealGM running like a first version android phone and Sam killing fan excitment by kicking the can down the road yet again, I guess I'm going to take up knitting for a hobby.

[Dadouv47]

Read on Twitter

?

Read on Twitter

Gross. Between RealGM running like a first version android phone and Sam killing fan excitment by kicking the can down the road yet again, I guess I'm going to take up knitting for a hobby.

Nothing new coming from him in interviews. I only care about what he will do in the offseason

[Kizz Fastfists]

Nothing new coming from him in interviews. I only care about what he will do in the offseason

I'll give you a hint. Preati says the same things every year and Presti does the same things every year. Who needs to dump a bad contract into OKC's cap space and will give Presti another 2nd round pick that he can add to his list of useless assets?

[Kizz Fastfists]

Read on Twitter

?

Gross. Between RealGM running like a first version android phone and Sam killing fan excitment by kicking the can down the road yet again, I guess I'm going to take up knitting for a hobby.

Will someone please give Presti a dictionary. I was unaware that he was illiterate. This piece of garbage needs to be fired. Either he's really this stupid or he believes that Oklahomans are illiterate. Given the number of people that worship him I suppose I should give the theory that Oklahomans are just too stupid to know Presti lies to them non-stop as a possibility.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/arrive

Arrive means" "to make an appearance".