The Consiglieri wrote:TGW wrote:According to the wiretap, it's Sarr or Risaccher.
https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/275882/Wizards-Looking-To-Re-Sign-Tyus-Jones;-Deciding-Between-Drafting-Alex-Sarr-Zaccharie-Risacher-With-No-2-Pick
And no, I don't think it's a smoke screen. I think those are the consensus top 2 picks right now.
Can anyone steel man the reasoning? I know much of the board hates Risaccher, and some hate Sarr, and some hate both, I'd love to hear the steel manning. I'm not at the Johnny Davis level of terror of us taking either guy, but I am concerned at how many of the board hate the guys. While I don't always agree w/the board on who some of the consensus guys are, most of the time you guys on aggregate are right when you hate a selection or at least). I'm curious, what do you guys think, rationally, analytics based, and scouting wise, explains the interest in Risaccher and Sarr so high. What does the league believe about them, that you think is right, and that you think is wrong? I'm super curious. The sense I get is simply the ceiling bet w/both, if they hit on the total upside piece....but I'd be curious to hear what you guys think they love, and how it could be right or wrong etc.
Sarr: You can't teach 7 feet. Big kid playing in a grown man's league. Sarr is 7 foot barefoot, long reach. At 19 years old he is young, athletic, with unknown upside. The attraction is his mobility at size, and therefore with good development he shows promise as a rare inside outside defender. Check the effect a big mobile defender like Dereck Lively is having on the Mavericks. When you have a guy who can show hard on the pick and roll, and still recover to man the paint, you have a playable Big in this league. We are looking at a Wemby era, where Unicorn sightings are no longer rare. Porzingis, Chet, Jokic, Embiid, KAT, various centers show face-up skills. If you cannot counter these players with a mobile defender then you're missing one plate of armor in the suit.
One more key on D: nobody can defend the 3pt shot nowadays. It has unbalanced the game. The only hope for doing so is to blanket the perimeter with long rangy defenders who can all switch, challenge a shot, and force the shooter to pass it or put it on the ground. Where hopefully your weakside guys are also rangy and quick to recover, challenge. If you have a 5 who is playable both outside and inside then teams cannot easily spread you out. Swat one or two jumpers out of the air and make them think. If so you can play a tall ball counter to small ball, and still defend the interior. Stats show Sarr is a truly solid defender on the outside. Not so much on the interior as he is light in the diaper with a high center of gravity. The thing that makes him nimble also currently robs him of power. But he's 19. Feed him. Get him on a strength program. He should get stronger as he grows.
On offense, the league is chasing Wemby's. Face-up bigs. Sarr shows a bit of agility playing outside in. His 70+% FT shooting suggests that his jumper is not irrevocably broken. He can put the ball on the deck end to end on a breakaway, does better dunking when he has a runway. Zero interior game right now, but again, as he gets stronger that should come. He's raw, but if you are cooking a team from scratch you are fine with raw ingredients. Do you trust this developmental team to build his game from the ground up? Because there are few players out there who have the combination of talent and size we see here. When he starts to get strong and realizes it, he may outrun, out maneuver, and out muscle some guys who are smaller, slower and all.
Synergy bonus, he and Bilal being French may see two young cats develop together.
Cons: you can't teach aggression. Garnett was skinny as a cemetery fence. But his fire to compete was clear as a highschooler. Sarr has been known as a talent since he came up the system in Spain (despite being french). Was always tall, and is still playing small. How has his raw talent not dominated in a league where Matthew Delladova is a big name? He's playing 18 minutes a game. Gets outworked on the interior and looks lost on the inside. Underwhelming showing at the combine in athletic testing and shooting alike. Competitive fire is the thing that allows players to develop every offseason. You wish you saw him attack the drills and show out when the spotlight was on him. (Contrast with Castle, who was knocked as a shooter, but came in 3rd in the motion shooting drills).
Hot take: Sarr still ranked at #1 is a smokescreen. I think he slips down the draft and ends up picked mid lotto.
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Risacher. Was playing in the French Pro league as a 17 year old last year. Son of a pro, lifelong baller, in a family where even his sister is on the pro track. Inconsistent in the past showing flashes but unsustained. This year however grew into a knock-down shooter and was commonly the top scorer on his team, playing starters minutes despite coming off the bench. A revelation on defense, he has shown up solid on this end, when previously he was thought of as too skinny or footslow. This year he was the key defender on his team. Yes, he's young, he will still sometimes get lost or miss his assignment, or get blown by or shoved aside by quicktwitch guys. But he chases the ball to the end of every possession. This means he will press the ballhandler, block shots, cover others mistakes, get dunked on, grab rebounds, even though he is mostly posted as a wing player. He does not sulk, shows solid balance when bumped, will go chest to chest on penetration, get bounced and spring back up. By contrast to Sarr he plays as though he does not know he is skinny. Cool demeanor, quiet but focused, never shouting, but always putting in the effort.
On offense, he simply plays a pro game. Off ball shooter who uses screens well, he has an arsenal of one-dribble two-dribble moves to get an open shot. Shoots a high pretty ball over his head with a quick release, forcing defenders to scramble to get to him. A tall shooter, he's ~6'9" and still filling out. Has great balance-- despite his height most of his muscle is in his foundation. Strong legs. He has skinny shoulders so may not fill out all that much, but plays stronger than his upper body suggests. He will bounce off guys but not fall down. Funny thing, he runs like the Logo, like Jerry West, his upper body staying upright while his legs change direction underneath him. Instinctive sense of the moment on offense, good sense of team play. When guarded he readily gives up the ball to teammates and repositions for a better shot. Great sense of when to attack the lane on backdoor and has the athleticism to climb up and flush the ball on the interior pass. He could instantly earn minutes on any team since his best skill set is exactly what Coaches ask a rookie to do: hit open shots, work hard on defense.
The knock: Inconsistency still shows up in his game. He regularly gets subbed out for making a rookie mistake, especially on defense. He got concussed and his game left him for a midseason slump. His frame is slim from the waist up so he won't be able to add tremendous strength. High floor, medium ceiling. Currently projecting as a non HOF Klay Thompson mimic. Off ball scorer only. Does not add ballhandling, passing. Does he love the game? Or is he doing what is expected of him since he was raised to be a pro baller. Does he play the same position as Bilal and thus reduce the minutes available for one or both?
My read: he is young, but with a precocious understanding of the game. Great team around him developing functional strength and skill. He's quiet, but does care. Looks to me like a great fit next to whomever we draft in the next few drafts. Meanwhile he'll earn developmental minutes next anyone. I like him, even if I know he will probably have games where he is quiet, and other draftees will show out as stars, while fans put pressure on him to look like the #1/#2 player in the league. There will probably be a better guy later in the draft, even if he proves to have a really solid career.
If he keeps winning in the playoffs he will go #1 or there may be a bidding war to trade up to #2. If he is there at 2 the Wizards will take him.
