2024 NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Finals: #3 Minnesota Timberwolves vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (DAL WINS 4-1)

[phanman]

Interesting stat...

Anthony Edwards had 8 FTAs in the 1st quarter yesterday. And it continued a series trend...

He has 18 FTAs in the 1st quarter of the past 3 games. He has 8 FTAs in the other 13 quarters combined.

I don't have research behind this, but he seems to drive early to set up his pull-up later

I don't have research either, but I imagine fatigue is probably a factor as well. Luka has similar tendencies where he explodes in 1st quarters and by the 4th its different.

Now I know Edwards isn't fat like Luka....but he clearly has looked gassed at times late in games.

Could also be he hears the criticism after games and so starts games doing what all the pundits say he should do and then sorta settles back into a more natural rhythm.

Could also be he feels a responsibility to be a tone setter early to allow his teammates to settle into the game.

I see it more as energy conservation than anything. He's been noticeably gassing in some games as the playoffs progress, so naturally he is going to settle late in games with his jumper.

[Novocaine]

I like Minny to be the first team to recover from a 0-3 deficit.

[Dan33185]

I like Minny to be the first team to recover from a 0-3 deficit.

Unlikely, but not impossible. In the past few years we've seen a 16 beat a 1 in the NCAA Tournament. Obviously it's one game as opposed to a 7 game series, but it's something that hadn't happened before. At some point, there will be a team that comes back from an 0-3 deficit, whether it's this series or a series 10 years from now.

[dygaction]

Doncic had a terrible game 4 and he resorted to fishing for cheap fouls as he is apt to do when his shot isn't falling ala Harden. If that continues in game 5 I can easily see the T-Wolves pulling off another win.

Was not a good game shooting wise, but if 28/15/10 is a terrible game, you have higher expectations than most Mavs fans. Also, if shot not falling in, a great player NEEDS to find ways to help the team, ala fishing for cheap fouls and facilitating teammates.. Harden or not, nothing wrong about it. He did both.
The drop from Lively's 20 min to Maxi/Dwight is brutal to digest for the team. Kyrie had an uncharacteristic game, not only 6/16 from the field, 1/6 form 3, but also 4assists/4TOs.

[Klomp]

Kyrie had an uncharacteristic game, not only 6/16 from the field, 1/6 form 3, but also 4assists/4TOs.

I guess we'll see if it was uncharacteristic or if it was the Jaden McDaniels Effect

[tsherkin]

Doncic had a terrible game 4 and he resorted to fishing for cheap fouls as he is apt to do when his shot isn't falling ala Harden. If that continues in game 5 I can easily see the T-Wolves pulling off another win.

Was not a good game shooting wise, but if 28/15/10 is a terrible game, you have higher expectations than most Mavs fans. Also, if shot not falling in, a great player NEEDS to find ways to help the team, ala fishing for cheap fouls and facilitating teammates.. Harden or not, nothing wrong about it. He did both.
The drop from Lively's 20 min to Maxi/Dwight is brutal to digest for the team. Kyrie had an uncharacteristic game, not only 6/16 from the field, 1/6 form 3, but also 4assists/4TOs.

I think the "terrible" is coming from how poorly he shot, and how critical it is that he doesn't do that, especially down the stretch. You can't have Luka AND Kyrie coming up short like that and expect to win, after all. Or any core duo, for that matter.

The Mavs lost that game because their focal scorers weren't good, so all the rebounds and assists in the world matter only so much after a certain point when you shoulder the volume load.

[tsherkin]

Kyrie had an uncharacteristic game, not only 6/16 from the field, 1/6 form 3, but also 4assists/4TOs.

I guess we'll see if it was uncharacteristic or if it was the Jaden McDaniels Effect

At least in the second half, Kyrie was missing a lot of those lefty lay-ins near the rim, and some clean looks from outside. I don't think that was so much McDaniels as regression after the game before. But as you say, we shall see.

[jkvonny]

I like Minny to be the first team to recover from a 0-3 deficit.

Unlikely, but not impossible. In the past few years we've seen a 16 beat a 1 in the NCAA Tournament. Obviously it's one game as opposed to a 7 game series, but it's something that hadn't happened before. At some point, there will be a team that comes back from an 0-3 deficit, whether it's this series or a series 10 years from now.

Two 16 seeds have beaten 1 seed in recent years.

UMBC (UVA) 2018
FDU (Purdue) 2023

As for teams to come back from 0-3 deficits to win.

None so far in the NBA . May happen sooner or later, IMO.

But there have been some close ones in the past .
Last season (2023) Miami beat Boston (higher seed, HCA). 4-3 ECF
2003 Mavs beat Portland 4-3 First round
1994 Jazz beat Nuggets 4-3 (Nuggz also upset #1 Seattle SuperSonics (now OKC Thunder) in prior round overcoming 0-2 deficit to win 3-2). SemiFinals
1951 Rochester Royals (now Sacramento Kings ) beat NY Knicks 4-3 . NBA Finals Championship.

All of the teams that fell 0-3 and forced game 7s were the lower seeds (underdogs). Boston was the favorite last year and higher seed.
Minn (favorite, higher seed, HCA) would be like Boston if they force game 7.

****
Only happen once so far in MLB. May happen again sooner or later.
2004 ALCS RedSox over NY Yankees 4-3

Almost happen again in 2020 ALCS TB Rays beat Houston Astros 4-3. Astros lost game 7.

****
Some reason it happens more frequently in NHL. Games and series are momentum driven.
Probably more in the future as well.

2014 First round LA Kings over SJ Sharks 4-3
2010 SemIFinals Philly Flyers over Boston Bruins 4-3
1975 Stanley Cup QrtFinals NY Islanders over Pitt Penguins 4-3
1942 Stanley Cup Finals championship Toronto Maple Leafs (home team, higher seed, HCA) over Detroit RedWings 4-3

The other ones that were close, but lost game 7.
2011 SemiFinals SJ Sharks over Detroit RedWings 4-3
2011 Conf QrtrFinals Vancouver Canucks over Chicago BlackHawks 4-3.
1975 Stanley Cup SemiFinals Philly Flyers over NY Islanders 4-3 (NY overcame 0-3 deficit in prior round against Pittsburgh)
1945 Stanley Cup Finals Championship Toronto Maple Leafs over Detroit RedWings 4-3. Det higher seed, HCA.
1939 Stanley Cup SemiFinals Boston Bruins over NY Ranger 4-3

[dygaction]

Doncic had a terrible game 4 and he resorted to fishing for cheap fouls as he is apt to do when his shot isn't falling ala Harden. If that continues in game 5 I can easily see the T-Wolves pulling off another win.

Was not a good game shooting wise, but if 28/15/10 is a terrible game, you have higher expectations than most Mavs fans. Also, if shot not falling in, a great player NEEDS to find ways to help the team, ala fishing for cheap fouls and facilitating teammates.. Harden or not, nothing wrong about it. He did both.
The drop from Lively's 20 min to Maxi/Dwight is brutal to digest for the team. Kyrie had an uncharacteristic game, not only 6/16 from the field, 1/6 form 3, but also 4assists/4TOs.

I think the "terrible" is coming from how poorly he shot, and how critical it is that he doesn't do that, especially down the stretch. You can't have Luka AND Kyrie coming up short like that and expect to win, after all. Or any core duo, for that matter.

The Mavs lost that game because their focal scorers weren't good, so all the rebounds and assists in the world matter only so much after a certain point when you shoulder the volume load.

For this particular Mavs team, they have survived many games where Luka shot really bad earlier due to his knees. In the first 6 games vs. LAC, Luka shot .41/.24 with 11.2 3PA. They were able to win as the team defense was great and he was still a net positive in all 6 games with his rebounding and assists.

Edwards caused several Luka's turnovers, but I am not worried if they think having him guarding is the solution. Shooters are due to have bad shooting games. In the first game we have seen Edwards is too small to be really effective. Luka should be able to figure ways out in game 5. More worrying about TWolves players getting momentum back on their offensive end, especially if Lively needs to miss another game.

[tsherkin]

For this particular Mavs team, they have survived many games where Luka shot really bad earlier due to his knees. In the first 6 games vs. LAC, Luka shot .41/.24 with 11.2 3PA. They were able to win as the team defense was great and he was still a net positive in all 6 games with his rebounding and assists.

They certainly did, and this is very much likely to be a single game where neither Luka nor Kyrie were clicking. And Lively was out. And Minny was super motivated, and it's damned hard to win 4 in a row against a good NBA team. So I'm not worried, per se. But it's okay to acknowledge that Luka had a rough night and it was a big problem. Like, it's no condemnation that he shot poorly and yes, his rebounding and passing were customarily good. But in a 5-point game when he shot that poorly and got nothing done in the 4th, that's on him more than anyone else. The burden of being the focal scorer.

Game 5 will be a whole different animal, I suspect. Minny has punched back; we'll see now what Dallas does in answer.

[Edrees]

Basically it's the same as if the series started over again but you pick Minny to sweep. The chances of a team sweeping another are just so low. But I bet this goes to game 6 or maybe even 7.

[dygaction]

For this particular Mavs team, they have survived many games where Luka shot really bad earlier due to his knees. In the first 6 games vs. LAC, Luka shot .41/.24 with 11.2 3PA. They were able to win as the team defense was great and he was still a net positive in all 6 games with his rebounding and assists.

They certainly did, and this is very much likely to be a single game where neither Luka nor Kyrie were clicking. And Lively was out. And Minny was super motivated, and it's damned hard to win 4 in a row against a good NBA team. So I'm not worried, per se. But it's okay to acknowledge that Luka had a rough night and it was a big problem. Like, it's no condemnation that he shot poorly and yes, his rebounding and passing were customarily good. But in a 5-point game when he shot that poorly and got nothing done in the 4th, that's on him more than anyone else. The burden of being the focal scorer.

Game 5 will be a whole different animal, I suspect. Minny has punched back; we'll see now what Dallas does in answer.

Certainly it was not a good game at all. Luka in the after game interview said it was on him. My point is he had more than a few worse games but those were not "terrible" games when Mavs won.

Similarly, had Naz hit the buzzer in game 2, Edwards/McDaniels/Towns combined 10/39 from the field, or .26FG% would not have mattered, we would have been looking at how Mavs role players combined 3/13 3s in a terrible loss.

[tsherkin]

My point is he had more than a few worse games but those were not "terrible" games when Mavs won.

I mean, they should be. We can remember that a dagger 3 or whatever down the stretch, but if they were there because he was rough the whole game prior, that's a rough night. Dirk had a few of those in the 2011 Finals and while the ending was as desired, those were still rough games where his guys bailed him out (in his case, though, long enough to come storming back in the second half, heh).

Game outcome doesn't really determine quality of game.

[durden_tyler]

Mavericks +5 in Game 5 per Vegas.

[Riverwalk2021]

I gots Minny tomorrow but Luka carries them to the Finals on Saturday. Won't happen but if Luka rested game 5, that would give him extra time to put everything into game 6. I would even say Minny would let up knowing Luka isn't in the lineup which could allow Dallas to steal one if Irving goes on a heater.

[Curmudgeon]

I gots Minny tomorrow but Luka carries them to the Finals on Saturday.

Yes, this is the most likely scenario.

[inquisitive]

Mavs win game 6

[Chuck Everett]

Each game has been a one or two possession game with 5 minutes to play. Wolves have got to get out to a lead and hold one for a change. Finch impressed me last night. No disrespect to Nori, but he realized some things and he couldn't wait for Micah to make his presence felt. It really would have been interesting to see him coach from the sideline these last two rounds than what he's been forced to do due to the injury.

[Klomp]

Each game has been a one or two possession game with 5 minutes to play. Wolves have got to get out to a lead and hold one for a change. Finch impressed me last night. No disrespect to Nori, but he realized some things and he couldn't wait for Micah to make his presence felt. It really would have been interesting to see him coach from the sideline these last two rounds than what he's been forced to do due to the injury.

I don't think it's anything against Nori or his coaching abilities. It's just easier to take out the middle man usually.

[Klomp]

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