2024 Draft Thread - Part II

[nate33]

From 1:56:00 -end of the video shows Holland being an absolute disaster on the defensive end.

He is definitely missing some rotations. He stays in the lane a bit too long tagging the roll man before he gets out to challenge the corner 3. But I don't know how harshly we should judge an 18-year-old on a terribly coached team playing against grown men when he misses a few rotations. He still looks good in one-on-one defensive situations, he has good hands in a scrum, and he rebounds well.

[NatP4]

From 1:56:00 -end of the video shows Holland being an absolute disaster on the defensive end.

He is definitely missing some rotations. He stays in the lane a bit too long tagging the roll man before he gets out to challenge the corner 3. But I don't know how harshly we should judge an 18-year-old on a terribly coached team playing against grown men when he misses a few rotations. He still looks good in one-on-one defensive situations, he has good hands in a scrum, and he rebounds well.

That isn’t “missing a few of rotations” though, that is 40 minutes of him being a liability in every aspect of defense.

Doesn’t attempt to contest against shooters, has zero off ball awareness, plays flat footed with extremely poor lateral quickness, constantly out of position gambling for steals.

I know he’s become a favorite on this board, but these are things being pointed out every where else on the internet regarding Holland.

[payitforward]

...Toppin was okay....

I didn't like Obi Toppin in the '20 draft, but he has turned into a very good player. Especially last season.

...Duarte and Agbaji were someone disappointing but not a total bust. Mitchell at #9 was a bust....

well... they're not out of the league, but all 3 were completely wasted draft picks. I.e. you can buy their level of play at the cost of a vet minimum contract cost any time you want.

[nate33]

From 1:56:00 -end of the video shows Holland being an absolute disaster on the defensive end.

He is definitely missing some rotations. He stays in the lane a bit too long tagging the roll man before he gets out to challenge the corner 3. But I don't know how harshly we should judge an 18-year-old on a terribly coached team playing against grown men when he misses a few rotations. He still looks good in one-on-one defensive situations, he has good hands in a scrum, and he rebounds well.

That isn’t “missing a few of rotations” though, that is 40 minutes of him being a liability in every aspect of defense.

Doesn’t attempt to contest against shooters, has zero off ball awareness, plays flat footed with extremely poor lateral quickness, constantly out of position gambling for steals.

I know he’s become a favorite on this board, but these are things being pointed out every where else on the internet regarding Holland.

Good stuff NatP4. Food for thought. I'll take a longer look when I get a chance. I had trouble determining to what degree these films are cherry-picking bad plays. I'd also like to see a similar film on Buzelis.

[nate33]

...Toppin was okay....

I didn't like Obi Toppin in the '20 draft, but he has turned into a very good player. Especially last season.

...Duarte and Agbaji were someone disappointing but not a total bust. Mitchell at #9 was a bust....

well... they're not out of the league, but all 3 were completely wasted draft picks. I.e. you can buy their level of play at the cost of a vet minimum contract cost any time you want.

Yeah, on a second look, Agbaji is bad too. I thought I remembered him being descent, but looking at the numbers, he is terrible. Duarte was pretty solid as a rookie but then had some injuries and lost his touch on the 3-ball.

[NatP4]

Buzelis for reference:

Watch on YouTube

But yeah, no idea what goes into including certain clips vs others. Some of the videos have much shorter “defensive” sections than others.

[payitforward]

...an Otto Porter redux that does not get injured every other game may not be such a bad get in an underwhelming draft…

Oh, it'd be a whole lot better than that! Otto Porter was one of the best young players in the league when his body failed him. He was maxxed for a reason. For that matter, as recently as '21-22 he performed at a high level -- a key guy off the bench for GS that year.

If Risacher becomes a consistently healthy Otto Porter he'll be among the better 1-3 picks in the last decade or so.
(Not saying I see that happening, btw -- don't get me wrong.)

[payitforward]

Its so wild to me Castle shot around 30% on 3s on 11 attempts per game his senior yr in HS only to abandon them and be so hesitant to shoot them in college. Never seen such a variance before. From confidently pulling up and taking contested looks in HS to being completely left alone in college.

Coach...?

[Rafael122]

I'm listening to the Dun'd on podcast and they're talking about Risacher. Apparently hand size is an issue, and the wingspan isn't ideal which I thought was also a bit strange being that he's 6'9 with a 6'10 wingspan.

[nate33]

I'm listening to the Dun'd on podcast and they're talking about Risacher. Apparently hand size is an issue, and the wingspan isn't ideal which I thought was also a bit strange being that he's 6'9 with a 6'10 wingspan.

Most forwards have a wingspan 2 or 3 inches longer than their height. For reference. MPJ is 6'9.5" with a 7'0" wingspan

So if Risacher is 6'9" with a 6'10" wingspan, he will play more like a 6'8" guy with a 6'11" wingspan. One selling point on Risacher is that he is really tall for a guy with a SF skillset. But it sounds like he won't actually have an impact any better than a typical 6'8" wing.

Again, this is not a dealbreaker or anything. It's just one more reason why Risacher is kinda meh. He'll likely be a solid NBA player, but does he have any star potential at all?

[Rafael122]

I'm listening to the Dun'd on podcast and they're talking about Risacher. Apparently hand size is an issue, and the wingspan isn't ideal which I thought was also a bit strange being that he's 6'9 with a 6'10 wingspan.

Most forwards have a wingspan 2 or 3 inches longer than their height. For reference. MPJ is 6'9.5" with a 7'0" wingspan

So if Risacher is 6'9" with a 6'10" wingspan, he will play more like a 6'8" guy with a 6'11" wingspan. One selling point on Risacher is that he is really tall for a guy with a SF skillset. But it sounds like he won't actually have an impact any better than a typical 6'8" wing.

Again, this is not a dealbreaker or anything. It's just one more reason why Risacher is kinda meh. He'll likely be a solid NBA player, but does he have any star potential at all?

45/56 on dunk attempts too. He's the wing version of Kwame Brown lol

[payitforward]

...Toppin was okay....

I didn't like Obi Toppin in the '20 draft, but he has turned into a very good player. Especially last season.

...Duarte and Agbaji were someone disappointing but not a total bust. Mitchell at #9 was a bust....

well... they're not out of the league, but all 3 were completely wasted draft picks. I.e. you can buy their level of play at the cost of a vet minimum contract cost any time you want.

Yeah, on a second look, Agbaji is bad too. I thought I remembered him being descent, but looking at the numbers, he is terrible. Duarte was pretty solid as a rookie but then had some injuries and lost his touch on the 3-ball.

I never understood what seemed an excessive interest in Duarte. He was 24 on draft night....

[NatP4]

Duarte was a late bloomer situation, played at a JUCO school.

There was also a massive drop off in talent after Giddey/Kuminga/Wagner were off the board at #8. I remember not caring at all who the Wizards picked, and also being shocked when Jared Butler dropped to #40.

The board really liked Murphy and Moody IIRC.

[payitforward]

I'm listening to the Dun'd on podcast and they're talking about Risacher. Apparently hand size is an issue, and the wingspan isn't ideal which I thought was also a bit strange being that he's 6'9 with a 6'10 wingspan.

Most forwards have a wingspan 2 or 3 inches longer than their height. For reference. MPJ is 6'9.5" with a 7'0" wingspan

So if Risacher is 6'9" with a 6'10" wingspan, he will play more like a 6'8" guy with a 6'11" wingspan. One selling point on Risacher is that he is really tall for a guy with a SF skillset. But it sounds like he won't actually have an impact any better than a typical 6'8" wing.

Again, this is not a dealbreaker or anything. It's just one more reason why Risacher is kinda meh. He'll likely be a solid NBA player, but does he have any star potential at all?

Doesn't look like it to me....

I'd a lot rather have 2 lower R1 picks & another R2 pick than Risacher at 2. Hope Portland is interested....

[closg00]

ESPN moves Risacher to the #1

[payitforward]

Duarte was a late bloomer situation, played at a JUCO school. ...

Then went to Oregon, where he was 22 as a Freshman. His really good year he was a 23 year old Sophomore. Being 4 years older than his Oregon classmates somewhat cuts against the "late bloomer" idea.

...There was also a massive drop off in talent after Giddey/Kuminga/Wagner were off the board at #8....

Not really, but it's not worth disputing.
The board was nuts about Davion Mitchell, who went right after Wagner. Murphy has certainly been a very good player. As has Sengun. Jalen Johnson has been absolutely terrific. Not to mention Isaiah Jackson, Cam Thomas, Santi Aldama, Herb Jones, Dosunmu. Then there were the #55 & #57 picks: Aaron Wiggin & Jericho Sims.

...I remember not caring at all who the Wizards picked, and also being shocked when Jared Butler dropped to #40.

The board really liked Murphy and Moody IIRC.

I would have picked Jalen Johnson.

[payitforward]

ESPN moves Risacher to the #1

Excellent.
I wonder whether Portland would want Alex Sarr?

2, 26 & 51 for 7, 14, 34 & 40.
(as I've commented a few times already -- sorry!)

[DCZards]

I would have picked Jalen Johnson.

Were you a big Jalen Johnson fan back then? I honestly don’t recall. I know I was.

Looking like Johnson, who was taken at 20, could turn out to be one of the top 5 or 6 players from the 2021 draft.

[dckingsfan]

ESPN moves Risacher to the #1

Excellent.
I wonder whether Portland would want Alex Sarr?

2, 26 & 51 for 7, 14, 34 & 40.
(as I've commented a few times already -- sorry!)

You can't say it enough times... this is a really good trade for us.

If Portland really wants Sarr, then it is good for them as well? They might want to go with a two big lineup as well, Sarr & Ayton -

Portland is equally bad - it will be interesting to see what direction they head.

[payitforward]

I would have picked Jalen Johnson.

Were you a big Jalen Johnson fan back then? I honestly don’t recall. I know I was.

Looking like Johnson could turn out to be one of the top 5 or 6 players from that draft.

Actually, you & I went back & forth about him in the draft thread that year. We both declared him our preferred pick.

I can find, but... so what? Just as easy to find cases where I was wrong!