LaLover11 wrote:One_and_Done wrote:Asianiac_24 wrote:Jokic and Luka are almost locks at their current pace. Jokic IMO is already above Kobe.
Wemby is very possible, but too early to tell.
Giannis have a shot, but his game won't age well enough.
Embiid needs to do a lot from now on to do it.
SGA has a shot but I personally don't see it.
Everyone else has virtually no shot.
Luka is already better. Giannis and Jokic too.
The Luka vote looks very far-sighted right now.
None of those are better than KB24
Kobe's record from 99-07 in games without Shaq: 135-137.
Kobe was not a floor raiser. He only succeeded on stacked teams. His ceiling raising is also overrated. He was on the title favourites at least 10 times and only won 5 of them. That's a 50% fail rate. Terrible.
When we look at the stats it's really obvious who is better too.
Luka per 100 is 42-12-12 from 20-24 on 595 TS% with a 117 Ortg.
Jokic is 38-18-13 per 100 from 21-24 on 663 TS% with a 130 Ortg.
Kobe (post-Shaq) prime 2006-10 RS – 39.2 pp100, 7.3 rp100, 6.6ap100, 114 Ortg, 565 TS%
Kobe does not compare well to the other names either, but let's look at that a bit more below.
There’s also D.Rob, who doesn’t have great longevity, but arguably has “enough” that it doesn’t matter. Giannis is another player in this category. Yeh, sure, Giannis only has 11 years in the league; but when Jordan first retired he only had 9 and people were already calling him one of the greatest ever. In today’s game would Jordan really be more impactful than Giannis? I have my doubts. Just comparing Giannis/D.Rob/Dirk/Kobe’s best seasons, here’s how they come out:
Giannis 2019-24 – 42.4 pp100, 17.3 rp100, 8.5 ap100, 121 Ortg/105 Drtg, 630 TS%
D.Rob (pre-Duncan) prime 90-96 – 33.9 pp100, 15.6 rp100, 4.1 ap100, 118 Ortg/97 Drtg, 592 TS%
Dirk (post-Nash) prime 2005-11 RS – 35.7 pp100, 12.1 rp100, 4.2 ap100, 119 Ortg/104 Drtg, 586 TS%.
Kobe (post-Shaq) prime 2006-10 RS – 39.2 pp100, 7.3 rp100, 6.6ap100, 114 Ortg/106 Drtg, 565 TS%
How about playoffs?
Giannis 19-24: 39 pp100, 17.8 rp100, 7.5 apg, 113 Ortg/ 102 Drtg 580 TS%
D.Rob 90-96: 31.6 pp100, 15.5 rp100, 3.9 ap100, 113 Ortg/101 Drtg 557 TS%
Dirk 05-11: 34.3 pp100, 13.3 rp100, 3.9 ap100, 119 Ortg/107 Drtg, 586 TS%
Kobe 06-10: 38.1 pp100, 7.3 rp100, 6.9 ap100, 114 Ortg/108 Drtg, 570 TS%
So the first observation is that Giannis is the best of the bunch and it’s not close. The only reason not to take him yet is if you don’t think he has “enough” longevity. He isn’t just a force offensively, he’s one of the best defensive players you could have in the modern era. Defense is something that’s hard to measure, but I think we can all agree D.Rob and Giannis are 2 of the best defensive players ever. Then on the other end they’d only need to be solid to be in discussion here. But they’re not just solid. Giannis is flat out better than the rest on offense, and while D.Rob is the “worst” of the 4 in the playoffs on O, he’s still close enough that I don’t know that the others have much of a case over him given his all-time defensive anchoring ability. If you’re taking Dirk or Kobe it’s got to be on longevity. Kobe looks the worst on balance by far. He’s 2nd of the group on volume scoring, but he does it by having bad efficiency which is probably part of why his TS% is the worst of anyone except playoffs D.Rob, and his Ortg is the worst of the bunch on balance (because regular season isn’t worthless, your performance there adds a lot of value). Then factor in this is literally Kobe’s very best stretch. If we’d run this from 00-10 for instance, he’d look so much worse (see above comparison with KD).
Dirk’s high end run in the 2011 playoffs is a level of impact neither D.Rob nor Kobe had during a singular playoff run, putting up 39.1 pp100, 11.5 rp100, 3.6 ap100 on 115 Ortg/105 Drtg, and 609 TS% while taking out Kobe’s Lakers, KD’s Thunder, and Blazers, and the first incarnation of the Heatles, is crazy impressive. Yeh, they’d have gone down to the 2012 Heatles once they balanced the team a little and figured out the line-ups to play, etc, but nobody expected them to win that year. They weren’t even supposed to beat the Lakers, and they ka-rushed them. Check out the stat-line of 32 year old Kobe v.s 32 year old Dirk. It’s not pretty. Kobe had 23.3 ppg, 3rpg, 2.5 apg on 519 TS%, v.s Dirk’s 25.3ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.5apg on an insane 673 TS%
As for Durant vs Kobe I don’t understand the argument for Kobe. Durant was a better scorer, better defender, and a better complementary piece who fit in more easily with others. His longevity is enough that any minor advantage Kobe has is negated.
Let’s just look at a peak to peak comparison to start with. Because KD has the consistency of a metronome (when he’s on the court), a number of different years can be advanced as his “peak”. But 2014 seems to have the strongest case. So let’s look at 2014 KD v.s 2008 Kobe (which is often advanced as Kobe’s best year).
KD: 41.8 pp 100, 9.6 rp 100, 7.2 ap 100, 123 Ortg, 104 Drtg, on an insane 635. TS%
Kobe: 36.5 pp 100, 8.1 rp 100, 6.9 ap 100, 115 Ortg, 106 Drtg, on 576. TS%
KD is better in literally every, single category, and not by a small margin. But let’s be fair to them and look at a bigger, more representative sample.
Here’s KD from 2010 to 2023, a 13 year stretch if we exclude 2020.
RS per 100: 38.2, 10, 6.3, 120 Ortg, 106 Drtg, on 631. TS%
PS per 100: 36.9, 9.8, 5.3, 115 Ortg, 108 Drtg 598. TS%
Kobe from 2000 to 2013:
RS per 100: 37.1, 7.6, 6.9, 112 Ortg, 105 Drtg, TS% 556.
PS per 100: 35.3, 6.9, 6.5, 110 Ortg, 106 Drtg, TS% 543.
So again, KD is basically beating him in every single category except for a trivial defensive rating difference, which could just be noise given how close it is and the sample size. He’s scoring more, and scoring more on insane efficiency. Even his assists are similar, despite Kobe’s supposed passing advantage (which FYI isn’t much of an advantage if you don’t like passing). The difference in Ortg is insane. KD is just cooking him.
On the defensive end KD is almost 7 feet tall with crazy long arms, so he can to a limited extent provide rim protection and switch on to bigger guys, all of which was key to his time on the Warriors. KD fits so much better than Kobe in so many situations, needing a lower usage and complementing other guys. KD was also misused to some degree in OKC, with it now being apparent in hindsight that Westbrook was not an optimal co-star for KD (to put it lightly). He often played with poor spacing in OKC, and thrived anyway.
Let’s turn to the one thing Kobe supporters can maybe argue, which is longevity. I don’t buy this, because KD has had enough longevity to score almost 27K points despite playing through several seasons cut short by COVID and lock outs, so at that point I’d say he has “enough” longevity that unless the person he’s being compared to is a comparably good player longevity isn’t enough to move the needle. But then I’m not even sure we can criticise KD’s longevity too much. Kobe has basically 12-13 healthy-ish, prime type seasons. His last few seasons were negative value add, and the early part of his career is mostly not adding too much. If we took out those years Kobe actually only has 28k+ points, so barely different to KD (who isn’t done yet either).
But what of KD? He was healthy from 2010 to 2014. That’s 5 prime seasons right there. 2016 healthy. That’s 6. 2017 and 2018 he was being rested and was out by design basically, I count those as healthy seasons. KD is up to 8 prime seasons. 2019? He was healthy all the way to the finals, then had an injury. I don’t dock him for that because it’s absurd. It would be rewarding guys like Kobe for getting bounced out in the first round, before they had a chance to injure themselves. That’s 9 prime seasons. In my mind that’s enough to overcome Kobe’s longevity easily. But I also feel KD added good value from 2021 to 2024. In those 3 seasons some of the games he missed were for rest, or due to reasons having nothing to do with injury; if he and the team were keen on him playing more, he could have. He was also healthy for the playoffs in 2021 and 2024 when it mattered (which is what he was being rested for).
I just don’t see what Kobe’s argument over KD would be. KD is just flat out better.
I'll just add this post from another thread to wrap up.
I think Iggy’s belated defence says it best. In order to say Kobe would be impactful today, he has to imagine a player that never existed. For me, that is not the right approach. Players can only get judged for the way they actually played.
The way Kobe played was incredibly selfish, and had an overrated impact on winning. To talk of a player developing in a different way in the modern age is just too hypothetical. It seems especially ridiculous to do so when that player had a terrible attitude, and showed during his own career that he had no interest whatever in adapting his style of play. I don’t need to imagine what Kobe would be like under a modern coach, because I actually saw it in 2013, and it was a huge disaster.
The 2013 Lakers were hailed as the overwhelming title favourites; and were a huge disappointment as a 45 win team who needed a great deal of home cooking by the refs down the stretch to even make the playoffs. Yeh, Nash was hurt, but that’s no excuse. They underachieved massively, and Kobe’s attitude and playstyle was a major reason for that underachievement (and a major reason that many people in hindsight decided he would have fit poorly with Nash anyway).
Kobe’s greatest strength was that he was an inelastic offensive player. Basically his chances of hitting a hard shot were just as high, no matter what you did, which meant playoff defence couldn’t scheme to take that away from him. The downside of that was:
1) If you are going to take the same inefficient, high degree of difficulty shots no matter what the D does, then you don’t really gain any benefit from improved spacing. That’s why this talk of “wow, Kobe would take advantage of today’s spacing” is off the mark.
2) High difficulty mid-rangers are now recognised as the least desirable shot in today’s game. They have a place, but they are just not a shot you want to build your offense around, because 2 points is worth less than 3.
3) Kobe’s efficiency on high degree of difficulty shots was acceptable back then because teams were less efficient. Now teams play so much more efficiently, and have so much more sophisticated offenses, that Kobe’s offense would be subpar.
That’s why Kobe would struggle more on offense in today’s game. But even in Kobe’s own era, his impact was plainly overstated. From 99-07 he led the Lakers to a 135-137 record in games where Shaq/Pau did not play; and no, it’s not because the team was so bad that it couldn’t be carried without Shaq/Pau. In games Kobe missed, Shaq had the Lakers playing like a 60+ win team. We also saw from 05-07 how much Kobe struggled as a floor raiser. Kobe’s strength was providing an extra weapon for an already good team in the playoffs. Unfortunately that strength would be significantly weakened in today’s game.
As I touch on; his D would also be a huge issue today. He could not get away with the things he did, modern D demands so much more from players. People like to point to SGA, as a way of pointing to an archetype that suggests “hey, maybe Kobe would be good today still”. The problem is SGA is a better 3pt shooter than Kobe, and runs the team’s offense as a highly efficient and low turnover point guard. Kobe can’t run an offense like SGA, and his iso-tendencies and lack of off-ball game would be highly limiting as a shooting guard. He’d basically be like a better version of DeRozan, which is good for about 6-12th most impactful in the league right now at best.