2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (Game 1: Thursday June 6th)

[Chuck Everett]

Ngl I might change my pick from Dallas to Celtics after hearing the inside info of what Brad Stevens’s has told his players to do

Surprised other teams have t done this to kyrie

What did he say ?

What did Brad say to the team?

[Fencer reregistered]

Better record than the Mavs against the top 5 in the East which is saying something because I’ve been told the East is so much weaker than the West ..

.. you didn't answer the question.. Boston has shown that they are very consistent, regular and can destroy the inferior competition..5/5 against teams of +50 wins (12/5 the Mavs in these playoffs against teams of +50 victories)..I am not trying to discredit the Celtics, they are a super team, just to show that the level is more even than they claim, we have a final between the best possible teams

Celtics were 5-5 vs top 5 in the West in regular season
Mavs were 4-11 vs top 4 in the West in regular season

Celtics 2-0 vs Mavs in regular season
Mavs 0-2 vs Mavs in regular season

Celtics 34-15 vs teams over .500
Mavs 25-27 vs teams over .500

Celtics 12-2 in the playoffs
Mavs 12-5 in the playoffs

You were trying to discredit the Celtics when all the metrics fall in favour of the Celtics.

Thats not saying the Celtics are guaranteed to win but people here trying to diminish what the Celtics have done when they’ve done nothing but dominate the whole season is **** hilarious to me.

In fairness, that 5-5 against top teams in the West becomes 3-5 when one removes the Mavs.

Still better than 4-11.

On the other hand, it's 3-3 if we exclude the Nuggets too, and the Mavs did 12-5 against those same teams in the playoffs, which neatly balances their 4-11 in the regular season. I.e., the claim that the Mavs are peaking at the right time gets good support from recent results.

But to your main point -- yeah, the only well-supported criticisms of the Celtics boils down to claims that they should have been yet more dominant than they were.

[The Corey's]

To be honest, I refuse to believe that the consensus unbiased opinion here is Dallas over Boston, IN 6 games, especially with the odds being what they are.

I don't buy it. People are voting against and rooting against Boston

Current poll is 204 to 194 in favour of Boston winning.

Which is ridiculous given what we know.

[The Corey's]

.. you didn't answer the question.. Boston has shown that they are very consistent, regular and can destroy the inferior competition..5/5 against teams of +50 wins (12/5 the Mavs in these playoffs against teams of +50 victories)..I am not trying to discredit the Celtics, they are a super team, just to show that the level is more even than they claim, we have a final between the best possible teams

Celtics were 5-5 vs top 5 in the West in regular season
Mavs were 4-11 vs top 4 in the West in regular season

Celtics 2-0 vs Mavs in regular season
Mavs 0-2 vs Mavs in regular season

Celtics 34-15 vs teams over .500
Mavs 25-27 vs teams over .500

Celtics 12-2 in the playoffs
Mavs 12-5 in the playoffs

You were trying to discredit the Celtics when all the metrics fall in favour of the Celtics.

Thats not saying the Celtics are guaranteed to win but people here trying to diminish what the Celtics have done when they’ve done nothing but dominate the whole season is **** hilarious to me.

In fairness, that 5-5 against top teams in the West becomes 3-5 when one removes the Mavs.

Still better than 4-11.

On the other hand, it's 3-3 if we exclude the Nuggets too, and the Mavs did 12-5 against those same teams in the playoffs, which neatly balances their 4-11 in the regular season. I.e., the claim that the Mavs are peaking at the right time gets good support from recent results.

But to your main point -- yeah, the only well-supported criticisms of the Celtics boils down to claims that they should have been yet more dominant than they were.

The Mavs are definitely peaking at the right time of year. The 3 teams they beat picked the wrong time of the year to go into a lull.

There's just no way the Celtics offense is going to be contained across 7 games. This idea that the Dallas defense is gonna hold them back is laughable to me.

Luka and Irving need to probably score 80 combined with 15 dimes to keep pace.

[Johnny Firpo]

46 pages of back and forth and 1st game is 5 days away still

And basically zero basketball discussion.

I'll try my best to change that.

1. First and most important thing, if KP is healthy, the Celtics are the favorites. Their shot quality with him on the floor is miles better than it is without him, and we actually see this in the playoffs. The Celtics had a couple of pretty underwhelming wins in terms of their offense entirely due to not being able to play five out. Even though Horford can make the three and even had two huge three point shooting games this playoffs, his impact on spacing is still not the same as KP's, even when he makes them.

2. The Celtics are a very interesting/unique team that we haven't really seen in NBA history. They don't have a top 5 player, but they have one who is close, and they are doing a lot of things well collectively, including mob rebounding and switching. They have one top 10 player, one top 20 player (when Brown is playing well, he is top 20), a top 30 player in White, and two top 40 players in KP and JRue (before the season no one really put JRue there anymore, nor KP, but I think they are back somewhere there).

3. Basically their only relative weaknesses are rim attacking, foul drawing and KP's pick&roll defense, but these weaknesses are relative, because they can be aggressive certain games when the threes might not fall that well, and they can switch better than anyone around KP's weakness and protect him well. They are a high variance team due to the three point tactic, but that's not necessarily a weakness, it's just the nature of it. It's a weakness on a bad shooting night, but a great strength on a good shooting night, and they are capable to winning low scoring games too due to their defense.

If the Mavs are capable of making this a close series, the following things will happen (simultaneously or at least two-three of them).

1. They can win the rebounding battle, like they did against the Wolves. This is an area where they have a chance at being better, and they need it.

2. Kyrie's and Luka's defense continue to hold up. They have been playing very good and sometimes really, really good defense this playoff run, which was surprising even to Mavs fans. However, defending the Celtics players is going to be a different challenge, as they are not methodical like Harden or Ant or even Shai, they are extremely quick in their decision making, and other than Tatum sometimes, they don't dribble a whole lot. They either shoot, attack or make the pass (and move a lot without the ball), you won't really be able to think about angles and such, and that makes Luka's and Irving's situation more difficult, since they will have to make quicker decisions too. The Celtics are a low frequency pick&roll team, which could be good for the Mavs normally, but they got a good rhythm against it these playoffs, and the Celtics will play very differently, so that's a challenge.

3. Luka will have to be the clear-cut best player in the series, not just by averages, but by impact too. If Tatum, for example, starts to shoot well from three and averages close to Luka, it's going to be very difficult to outscore the Celtics.

4. How will the Celtics handle the pick&roll of the Mavs? Mazzula wasn't really impressed with the Celtics' pick&roll D these playoffs, and said so a couple of times. The Mavs on paper doesn't look to be a great pick and roll team by PPP, but that's very misleading, because they are a GREAT "pick then whatever" team. Once Luka or Kyrie uses the pick, the big won't instantly roll to the rim, they rather orientate towards the dunker's spot. Then both Luke and Kyrie can be methodical from there, and basically once they are in the paint, it's pick your poison, similarly to the Nuggets' offense. It's either a floater by them, a mid range or getting fouled, or a lob dunk or an open three most of the time. The Mavs can generate high quality shots like probably no one right now, maybe even including the Celtics. They had an amazingly high shot quality against the T-Wolves, due to this and their lob game seemed unstoppable. This is another area where they can have an advantage, half court creation/shot quality, and since they are not as good of a shooting team as the Celtics, they really need this too.

All in all, the Celtics are the favorites, but with their high variance playing style and KP's health/play in question, there is a road map for the Mavs to make this a close series. KP is my third favorite player after Luka and Jokic, so I hope he is healthy and plays.

[Novocaine]

[2. The Celtics are a very interesting/unique team that we haven't really seen in NBA history. They don't have a top 5 player, but they have one who is close, and they are doing a lot of things well collectively, including mob rebounding and switching. They have one top 10 player, one top 20 player (when Brown is playing well, he is top 20), a top 30 player in White, and two top 40 players in KP and JRue (before the season no one really put JRue there anymore, nor KP, but I think they are back somewhere there).

How so? Haven't really seen in NBA history?

You mean a championship team without a top-5 player but plenty of very good players?

Larry Brown's Pistons are probably the most famous.

[Johnny Firpo]

[2. The Celtics are a very interesting/unique team that we haven't really seen in NBA history. They don't have a top 5 player, but they have one who is close, and they are doing a lot of things well collectively, including mob rebounding and switching. They have one top 10 player, one top 20 player (when Brown is playing well, he is top 20), a top 30 player in White, and two top 40 players in KP and JRue (before the season no one really put JRue there anymore, nor KP, but I think they are back somewhere there).

How so? Haven't really seen in NBA history?

You mean a championship team without a top-5 player but plenty of very good players?

Larry Brown's Pistons are probably the most famous.

Yes, sorry, should have elaborated more. I'm thinking the combination of not having a top 5 player and being a three point spamming, elite switching D team. The Warriors were kind of like that, but they had a top 5 player and even them weren't taking nearly this many threes. The Celtics are kind of like a supercharged moneyball team in that they are basically maxing out the modern basketball strengths and not really worrying about anything else.

[zimpy27]

To be honest, I refuse to believe that the consensus unbiased opinion here is Dallas over Boston, IN 6 games, especially with the odds being what they are.

I don't buy it. People are voting against and rooting against Boston

Current poll is 204 to 194 in favour of Boston winning.

Which is ridiculous given what we know.

Well what we know is that Dallas just looked better in the WCF than Boston did in the ECF.
We also know that Boston have homecourt advantage and were a great RS team.

What we don't know is how much KP will play and we don't know much about matchups between these 2 teams.

I think it's reasonable to see it leaning Celtics though close

[The Corey's]

Current poll is 204 to 194 in favour of Boston winning.

Which is ridiculous given what we know.

Well what we know is that Dallas just looked better in the WCF than Boston did in the ECF.
We also know that Boston have homecourt advantage and were a great RS team.

What we don't know is how much KP will play and we don't know much about matchups between these 2 teams.

I think it's reasonable to see it leaning Celtics though close

Yes but I think it's ridiculous for this to he a 50/50 proposition essentially.

I think given everything we know, Boston is still the clear favorite.

[dirkdiggler4177]

I can see Mavs stealing this. They have been rolling since the trade and never lost momentum. The Celtics have yet to face any diversity, only facing one-star player teams, and that player has missed half the games during those series. All the Western Conference finals teams would be in the finals if they played in the East and faced the team the Celtics did.
The Celtics will also have a 13(?) day break which sounds good, but that can easily take them mentally out of the first game. KP has not played in a long time and he usually takes some time to get going after a injury. He will have to go out and battle the two-headed monster who has nothing to lose, while KP wants to fade away from the high post.

The Celtics win this series if they play great defense and just swing the ball around and make 3-pointers. If this team gets it going from 3-point land nobody is beating them. If it becomes a gritty and dirty series I see the Mavs winning.

[The Corey's]

It can't be understated that the Celtics already beat Dallas without KP.

He's not needed. He's a luxury.

[165bows]

Which is ridiculous given what we know.

Well what we know is that Dallas just looked better in the WCF than Boston did in the ECF.
We also know that Boston have homecourt advantage and were a great RS team.

What we don't know is how much KP will play and we don't know much about matchups between these 2 teams.

I think it's reasonable to see it leaning Celtics though close

Yes but I think it's ridiculous for this to he a 50/50 proposition essentially.

I think given everything we know, Boston is still the clear favorite.

Boston lost fewer games (0-1) and had a bigger margin of victory (6.7-5.8) but the key is Dallas looked better in their CF wins. That’s what this boils down to really.

[The Corey's]

Well what we know is that Dallas just looked better in the WCF than Boston did in the ECF.
We also know that Boston have homecourt advantage and were a great RS team.

What we don't know is how much KP will play and we don't know much about matchups between these 2 teams.

I think it's reasonable to see it leaning Celtics though close

Yes but I think it's ridiculous for this to he a 50/50 proposition essentially.

I think given everything we know, Boston is still the clear favorite.

Boston lost fewer games (0-1) and had a bigger margin of victory (6.7-5.8) but the key is Dallas looked better in their CF wins. That’s what this boils down to really.

I wonder how their team would handle a team with a offense as potent as the 2024 Indiana Pacers?

Oh wait. We actually have an answer for that.

Dallas lost Feb 25th 133 to 111.

Dallas lost March 5th 137 to 120


Both with PJ Washington on the roster.

Blah blah rotations ain't set blah blah regular season no one is trying, blah blah they haven't gelled.

Mavs played well but to **** on the Celtics for their efforts against the Pacers when Dallas couldn't contain their offense as recently two months ago is why I find it ridiculous to say the Celtics are in trouble based on how they've played vs the Mavs.

[Johnny Firpo]

It can't be understated that the Celtics already beat Dallas without KP.

He's not needed. He's a luxury.

It's a one game sample size (post trade) and the Mavs were in a pretty bad slid then, I'm not sure how accurate/important that is. They have won 7 in a row after the trade, and I remember we thought we were the shiznit, then bamm, we lost 111-133 to the Pacers, 119-121 aganst the Cavs, then we won one, but the Raps scored 125 on us even in that game, and then we lost to you guys 110-138, but then also lost to the Sixers 116-120 and then again to the Pacers 120-137. So that was EASILY the worst defensive form for that team during that two weeks, for whatever reason. That team wouldn't even have advanced against the Clippers. But I guess it can still show that the Mavs was, and maybe can still be the more inconsistent defensive team.

[The Corey's]

It can't be understated that the Celtics already beat Dallas without KP.

He's not needed. He's a luxury.

It's a one game sample size (post trade) and the Mavs were in a pretty bad slid then, I'm not sure how accurate/important that is. They have won 7 in a row after the trade, and I remember we thought we were the shiznit, then bamm, we lost 111-133 to the Pacers, 119-121 aganst the Cavs, then we won one, but the Raps scored 125 on us even in that game, and then we lost to you guys 110-138, but then also lost to the Sixers 116-120 and then again to the Pacers 120-137. So that was EASILY the worst defensive form for that team during that two weeks, for whatever reason. That team wouldn't even have advanced against the Clippers. But I guess it can still show that the Mavs was, and maybe can still be the more inconsistent defensive team.

Right but the only thing we can go on is how they've played against each other and how well they've played in the playoffs

This idea that the Celtics have looked suspect in the playoffs is a weird take overall because they've lost twice, and undefeated on the road.

Of course then you get the Dallas fans parroting the talking heads points of they've beat no one, the teams they had were bad to begin with and worse because of injury to major players.

The Mavs earned their way into the finals and I certainly am not taking it away from them. Luka went off in the wcf and essentially destroyed the Wolves.

But none of that suggest they should beat Boston.

I personally would be shocked if Mavs won. Flabbergasted if they won in 5. The Celtics haven't played healthy all postseason and still won the games they should have won.

Instead of being impressed by their will and depth, they're taking **** for not having won by 30 a night.

[ajones9219]

It can't be understated that the Celtics already beat Dallas without KP.

He's not needed. He's a luxury.

It's a one game sample size (post trade) and the Mavs were in a pretty bad slid then, I'm not sure how accurate/important that is. They have won 7 in a row after the trade, and I remember we thought we were the shiznit, then bamm, we lost 111-133 to the Pacers, 119-121 aganst the Cavs, then we won one, but the Raps scored 125 on us even in that game, and then we lost to you guys 110-138, but then also lost to the Sixers 116-120 and then again to the Pacers 120-137. So that was EASILY the worst defensive form for that team during that two weeks, for whatever reason. That team wouldn't even have advanced against the Clippers. But I guess it can still show that the Mavs was, and maybe can still be the more inconsistent defensive team.

TBF Mavs fans are saying literally every metric we can use to compare these teams isn't accurate or relevant because they basically all favor the Celtics

[Johnny Firpo]

It can't be understated that the Celtics already beat Dallas without KP.

He's not needed. He's a luxury.

It's a one game sample size (post trade) and the Mavs were in a pretty bad slid then, I'm not sure how accurate/important that is. They have won 7 in a row after the trade, and I remember we thought we were the shiznit, then bamm, we lost 111-133 to the Pacers, 119-121 aganst the Cavs, then we won one, but the Raps scored 125 on us even in that game, and then we lost to you guys 110-138, but then also lost to the Sixers 116-120 and then again to the Pacers 120-137. So that was EASILY the worst defensive form for that team during that two weeks, for whatever reason. That team wouldn't even have advanced against the Clippers. But I guess it can still show that the Mavs was, and maybe can still be the more inconsistent defensive team.

TBF Mavs fans are saying literally every metric we can use to compare these teams isn't accurate or relevant because they basically all favor the Celtics

Well, I yet to see metrics that focus on the period of starting post trade and up until the finals, that would be where I would start. Unless you think it matters what the pre-trade Mavs did, which if you do, I want to hear your argument for it.

[Mr B]

On the Celtics Board ..

Yeah already said why. Because of how unseriously they took the Mavs the entire thread.

I think it will be Celtics in 5... not because I don't respect the Mavs but because of how stacked Boston is this season and because matchups are so huge in the NBA. We just saw it. The Wolves basically match up perfectly with Denver and they won, but terrible with the Mavs and lost. I think Denver would have beaten the Mavs as well and very likely could have beaten Boston.

The reason Celtics fans like the matchup with the Mavericks is because our strengths are built to slow down the exact way Dallas likes to play, and Dallas doesn't have a similar answer on the other end. Boston has basically the perfect roster to throw at Luka and Kyrie. While Dallas has a great defense, it's built to pack the paint and bait bad shots from outside the arc, which is effective against basically every team except the Celtics, who play a lineup of 5 shooters at basically all times.

The Mavs are my favorite western team so I'm not some Mavs hater or anything.

Do you think the Celtics will have trouble matching Dallas in rebounds? Dallas is a very physical team inside and has dominated the boards in most of their games.

I know the Celtics like to play 5 out and are not a big team. Plus playing 5 out keeps you away from the glass.

I’m just curious on how Celtics fans think the team will handle that disadvantage.

[jpengland]

Other than Lukas health, the big question for me is how effective KP is coming back from injury.

I'm actually a big fan of KP and think he got a rough deal in Dallas - but we did repeatedly see how he struggled to impact games when coming back from injury. Is he really going to be effective enough offensively and also be mobile enough to stop the Luka lobs to Gafford and Lively?

[Mr B]

Yeah already said why. Because of how unseriously they took the Mavs the entire thread.

I think it will be Celtics in 5... not because I don't respect the Mavs but because of how stacked Boston is this season and because matchups are so huge in the NBA. We just saw it. The Wolves basically match up perfectly with Denver and they won, but terrible with the Mavs and lost. I think Denver would have beaten the Mavs as well and very likely could have beaten Boston.

The reason Celtics fans like the matchup with the Mavericks is because our strengths are built to slow down the exact way Dallas likes to play, and Dallas doesn't have a similar answer on the other end. Boston has basically the perfect roster to throw at Luka and Kyrie. While Dallas has a great defense, it's built to pack the paint and bait bad shots from outside the arc, which is effective against basically every team except the Celtics, who play a lineup of 5 shooters at basically all times.

The Mavs are my favorite western team so I'm not some Mavs hater or anything.

The wolves said the same thing about the matchups. OKC did too.

Wolves said they matchup well because they are just too big for the Mavs. They'll overpower us and outrebound us.

OKC thought they matchup well because they have elite perimeter defense to shut down our stars with a shooting center.

Both those things got exposed.

We won't know how these teams matchup until we see the series, because everytime teams said they matchup well against the Mavs they've been blown off the court.

Celtics could end up matching up well. But I think it's premature to say that based on what we've seen in the WC so far this series.

We know how the Celtics fans feel about this matchup. They think this won’t even be a series and them being awarded the Championship is just a formality. Hopefully the team is reading all this on social media and starts to feel the same way. It would be great for the Celtics to start this series overconfident and take the Mavs lightly.