Bob8 wrote:ajones9219 wrote:Johnny Firpo wrote:
That's a little bit better, yeah, thank you. I still want to provide a little more context here, if you don't mind. When we played you guys post trade, we were actually in the middle of a terrible slid. During those roughly two weeks, we surrendered 133 to the Pacers, 121 to the Cavs, 125 to the Raptors, 120 to Philly, 137 to the Pacers, and 138 to you, within like 10 days or something like that. The team clearly didn't work then, and watching all the Mavs games this year, something has definitely clicked after that, and I feel this is a different team compared to that Mavs team. Obviously the same roster, and obviously, there is always a chance to get back to a lesser form, so I'm not entirely sure it cannot happen, it would just surprise me at this point, after this run, in a finals.
I am also hoping that the difference in the playoff net rating, which is no doubt significant, is somewhat of a result of the difference of the opponents. I don't really buy into the "Celtics had an easy road" narrative, because it's never easy to make the finals, and clearly the Celtics had to win some clutch games to get there. Teams can always muck it up, and you simply end up in low scoring games sometimes, even if you have the best offense. And when that happened, the Celtics still won, so clearly they are very, very good. Anyway, I think this series will come down how the Celtics defend the pick&roll, they rarely blitz, and I'm not entirely sure this will be a good idea against the Mavs (never putting two on the ball).
And on the other end, how will the Mavs defend the three point line? Dallas was kind of middle of the pack during the regular season, and kind of middle of the pack in the playoffs too, I think that might not be enough, and they will have to switch it up. Closing down the paint worked against OKC and the T-Wolves, but it didn't really work against the Clippers, and the Celtics are an ever better shooting team. Therefore, we might see more Maxi and small ball from the Mavs this series, especially if the Celtics were to come out on fire and make a bunch of threes, and win game 1. So I think the Celtics might have to switch up their pick & roll D, especially if KP isn't 100%, which I kind of expect (he always needed a lot of time to get back into form after injuries), and I definitely feel we'll have to switch up our 3PT% defense, and be more aggressive on closeouts.
Totally understand that context. However, Luka put up 37/12/11, and Kyrie put up 19. Realistically can the Mavs play better or Boston play worse? Sure, but it was also 28 point game.
Boston probably won't consistently shoot like 49% from 3 tbf, but the shot quality was excellent because as you point out, Dallas isn't great guarding the 3. The plan so far this postseason has been to surrender 3s from bad shooters but Boston doesn't have any (none that will see the floor anyway).
Again I'm being as respectful as I can and trying to not make any statements that don't have statistical backing.
If Celtics shoot near 50% for 3, there won't be a series. But luckily Celtics are shooting worse from 3 than Mavs in playoffs and are making just 2 3-pointers more than Mavs. Maybe Mavs are not the best perimeter defenders, but I kinda doubt Celtics will made 20 3s per game, shooting 50%.
I agree with you that the Celtics wont shoot 50% for the series obviously ...but the Mavs are statistically the worst 3pt defense Boston will have seen so far in the playoffs and Boston is by far the best shooting team Dallas will have faced.
I expect at minimum one game you'll see that kind of output.
