Road to a Championship start here, 2022 Draft.

[jayu70]

If NO's are trading BI to Atlanta or 3rd team for preference, I'd be looking at Murray & #1 Sarr where it would be a benefit to take back 2yrs of Capela to bridge a development gap. Which would hold value to Hawks in trade.

I'd deal for Allen if it meant he went to Atlanta for Okongwu & #1 Sarr. Start Okongwu & develop Sarr. Both with better contracts, control, switch ability & spacing potential. Same principle with Daniel's developing behind Murray, raising the teams ceiling. When Sarr develops, NO's can flip Okongwu who's also on a value contract.

C = Okongwu - #1 Sarr
PG = Murray - Daniels

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There is no way the Hawks are doing either of these deals:
Murray and #1 for Ingram
Okongwu and #1 for Allen
Capela has 1 year left not 2.
The only interest King Ken has in trading down from #1 for #7 and #14 (which is just bad value asset management) is to draft Edey who he thinks is an MVP candidate playing with Trae.

My trades are more concept than exact value. I have no links to know how Hawks value their assets.

What do you think of (Murray #1) for (Ingram, #21 & a projected Lotto pick in 25).

I don't see Ingram on an expiring contract and an incoming hefty pay raise is worth the inclusion of the #1 pick.
This is the Hawks first ever #1 pick so it will have a high value placed on it. It won't be moved lightly, no matter what the supposed experts think of this draft.

[Whole Truth]

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There is no way the Hawks are doing either of these deals:
Murray and #1 for Ingram
Okongwu and #1 for Allen
Capela has 1 year left not 2.
The only interest King Ken has in trading down from #1 for #7 and #14 (which is just bad value asset management) is to draft Edey who he thinks is an MVP candidate playing with Trae.

My trades are more concept than exact value. I have no links to know how Hawks value their assets.

What do you think of (Murray #1) for (Ingram, #21 & a projected Lotto pick in 25).

I don't see Ingram on an expiring contract and an incoming hefty pay raise is worth the inclusion of the #1 pick.
This is the Hawks first ever #1 pick so it will have a high value placed on it. It won't be moved lightly, no matter what the supposed experts think of this draft.

The belief is BI will want to extend wherever he's traded to.

You'd want a top 10 pick & a first in 25 ?.

[Whole Truth]

My boy Jam on the Hawks board is saying Hawks are open to trading down for more swings.

[Whole Truth]

Kat is a definite spacing "threat" you'd want offensively with Zion.

There's 4 massive negatives.

- Contract.
- 2nd player injury prone on a max contract.
- He's a worse defender than Jonas
- Low IQ

Take a guess why Minnesota opened the asset bank to trade for Gobert, a defensive C.

& worse yet, in moving Kat from C to PF, they're now deciding it best to trade him.

The negatives far out weight the positive. It's possible the offensive spacing could work but it would be a very risky gamble.

[Whole Truth]

I've been having a conversation with the Spurs board to see if they would trade their 4 & 8 picks. They say they could see a Keldon, one of 4 or 8 & FRP for Garland. To potentially part with both picks, they'd need 2 starters PG & SF.

I suggested Garland & Daniels for (Keldon, 4, 8, FRP). have yet to get a response

Trade 1 -

Cavs trade - (Garland) for (BI, Spurs FRP)

Spurs trade - (Keldon, 4, 8, FRP) for (Garland, Daniels)

NO's trade - (BI, Daniels) for (Keldon, 4, 8)

Trade 2 -

Magic trade - (Isaac) for (Keldon)

Hawks trade - (Capela, #1) for (Isaac, #8, #21, NO's/Lakers 25)

NO's trade - (Keldon, #8, #21, NO's/Lakers 25) for (Capella, #1)  

Capela - #1 Sarr
Zion - Nance
Murphy - Hawkins
Herb - CJ
#4 Sheppard - Jose

If CJ can net a viable SF for the Spurs, I'd prefer to hang onto Daniels.

[Whole Truth]

A poster on another forum said this -

"BI, Zion, and CJ had a net rating of +3 when on the court together. BI and Zion had a +13.4, BI and CJ had a +13.2, Zion and CJ was just +5.4.

BI and Zion worked. BI and CJ worked. It was CJ and Zion and all three together that didn't work."

While a true statement, he's also leaving out some context. Zion & CJ played a lot of their minutes off the bench against lesser competition, in relation to his minutes with BI. Teams successfully zoned Zion despite being paired with CJ off the bench & they got dismantled defensively. Remember Denver's weak bench working them over early in the season ...

Green started to play that unit with one of Daniels or Herb & they got a bit better.

Nance pairing with Zion wasn't great either because of the fact they zoned Zion.

As I've been saying an offensive C stretching the paint & ball pressure was better for Zion than a defensive C & an offensive guard. The Zone doesn't just wall off Zion, it takes away driving lanes & turns creators like BI & CJ into long range threats. Reason one of the few lineups Nance was positive in, Murphy & CJ were spacing the floor but as I show & ask.

Is a rim protector & offensive guard the best build around Zion & my answer is while you can probably make it work, NO. NO's best lineup shows Zion fairs best in lineups with sufficient ball pressure, over rim protection. Not that you don't need rim protection but priority

Ideally you want -
Defensive C that can take his man out the paint - #1 Sarr
Defensive PG, that can space the floor - Murray, Daniels, #4 Sheppard

The fact players like Sarr are rare, the reason I've made that target a priority. Jam claims Atlanta are willing to trade down & Spurs are willing to trade Keldon #4 for Garland. NO's can use that #4 to trade up though I do like Sheppard's fit also.

[Whole Truth]

The biggest issue, is the fact it will have to be a soft reset but it's needed. Try & force a fit to contend now & it will only lead to more wasted time. Zion is still relatively young. Prop back up that ceiling that has collapsed under the veteran CJ.

I don't think Murray is an Ideal fit but all things considered court to cap he's a viable solution asset. His team friendly contract has worth in itself with these ballooning contracts.

[Whole Truth]

Spurs are willing to trade (Keldon #4 or #8 & a future pick) for (Garland)
They would have to get a starting PG & SF to consider trading both picks

(I don't want to trade Daniels but if it meant landing Sarr & Reed, I'd make the concession). As Reed has more defensive potential as an ideal floor spacer than either Garland or Young.

Jam posted Atlanta are open to trade down for more assets & to maximize value.

Assuming NO's can trade BI/Daniels for Garland to net (Keldon, #4, #8). NO's can flip one of the 2 picks with NO's Lakers 25 for #1. Draft Reed with the other

(Murray, Capela, #1) or just (Capela, #1)

Ideally flip CJ for a SF to replace Daniels in trade & or to net additional pieces that will help sway, peak Atlanta's interest.

[Whole Truth]

I see discussion around trading & keeping Daniels. This should be an easy decision but apparently isn't.

Daniel's at 20 finished 2nd in d-Lebron, his defense & defensive versatility is elite. He has a lot of questions offensively but has shown progress, especially with his 3 ball.

He has the best 2 man pairing with Zion despite being very limited offensively where any offensive growth improves his fit. He's 20yr old & could a be rookie in this draft.

Not a chance I'd trade Daniels for another defensive weak link. CJ shot 42% on 8 APG better than any target listed & he was a net 0 pairing with Zion because of their combined defense.

I would only trade Daniels is if it led to netting Sarr. Simply because it's harder to find a switch able defensive C, rim runner, vertical spacer, that can pull his man out the paint to fit Zion, where NO's do have Herb still. No teams are parting with the kind of C NO's covet without warts, like contract, health & or age involved. Sarr is 19 on rookie scale & control. Everything has risk but not all risks are equal. Trade for say Kat, who's an ideal floor spacer, he's old, he's overpaid, he's injury prone, he doesn't play a lick of defense & he's low IQ. Yup, I rather take risk on Sarrs offensive potential than a proven C like Kat.

[Whole Truth]

Reason I have NO's trading for (Capela & #1)

Besides the fact Hawks would like to shed Capela to start Okongwu. His short contract bridges a development gap to a long term solution & he would be cheaper to acquire than Okongwu. So most of the value is to net the #1 pick & future C.

[Whole Truth]

Spurs board let me know Wemby told them he wants to be a primary option so they have no interest in Sarr. Hawks open to trading down, If NO's can net 4 & 8, I can see an avenue with Atlanta for #1, while potentially drafting Reed in combination.

Sarr wants to start, not compete with Wemby for minutes. Hawks have Okongwu ready to start. If Sarr wants to start, I can see why Atlanta who wants to contend with Young, is open to trading down.

NO's have no starting C. I say follow OKC & start Sarr, who should hold his own defensively. Worse case, 25 is a strong draft & NO's would benefit from his development minutes. As the justification of being a #1 pick should afford him to start on a team with a clear opening.

Spurs want a backup big, guards 1-3 who can defend or shoot & have interest in Garland. I'm thinking BI for Garland, pair him with a backup big from a CJ trade & Daniels if it means both Spurs picks.

Trade 1 -
Magic trade - (Carter) for (Keldon)

Cavs trade - (Garland) for (BI, Spurs FRP)

Spurs trade - (Collins, Keldon, #4, #8, FRP) for (Carter, Garland, Daniels)

NO's trade - (BI, Daniels) for (Collins, Keldon, #4, #8)

Trade 2 -
NO's trade - (Collins, #8, #21, NO's/Lakers 25) for (Capela, #1)

[Whole Truth]

Just saw a Pels link post that Atlanta is considering (Murray, Hunter, #1) for (BI, Herb)

This is a tough one. Herb is now a legit 3D threat & while Daniels is arguably the better on ball & versatile defender, NO's would have to believe he has the potential to be more consistent from range to move Herb. CJ & Murray backcourt give them that development bridge for Daniels who's still only 20 & had the best defensive pairing with Zion.

Murray is a down grade from Herb but Sarr is everything Green wants defensively at C with the potential to be a floor spacer. Overall, might not be a defensive downgrade but Ideally you'd want to pair Sarr with Herb's defense & spacing. To get you have to give. The value seems fair with both teams giving up something they don't want to.

That 7'' rim running, vertical spacing, switch everything, spacing C is a lot harder to find than a 3D guard & NO's potentially have an elite replacement in Daniels in wait. Both Sarr & Daniels are 19 & 20 respectively with elite defense & 30% range on low volume. Lock them in a gym & this teams ceiling alters greatly.

Sarr 19 = 7' switch defender with 3pt potential
Zion 23 = Volume efficiency post player, point forward
Murphy 23 = Deep floor spacer
Hawkins 22 = Motion shooter
Daniels 20 = elite perimeter defender, secondary guard, play maker

'd prefer to have Herb where Hawkins is slotted but I like it.

From Atlanta's perspective. They don't own their draft for the next 3yrs. They miss on that #1 pick with Young wanting to contend, it could get ugly for them. This trade makes them much better now on both ends & fit, at the cost of #1.

[Whole Truth]

If things go south. Worse case NO's can draft a 2 way SG in 25 to upgrade Hawkins defensively, cheaply move him into a 6th man role.

Sarr - 20
Zion - 24
Murphy - 24
25 draft pick / Hawkins - 23
Daniels - 21

Ceiling raised.

[Whole Truth]

I see NO's fans not liking the idea, saying it's a weak draft etc. The amount of times I've heard weak draft & it produced. There is a specific target at #1, they don't know who or what he can do. It has to be pried & Herb is the unfortunate cost but potentially worth it.

As you know, I was against trading Herb in 2 rumored deadline trades. One including Allen, the other Okongwu. Allen is just a defensive big with no range on a 20m, 2yr contract. Who's not an ideal fit offensively. Okongwu can switch defend but he's undersized & still only potential from range but on a better contract & control.

Sarr is a 7' C with good length, foot speed, athleticism, that can switch defend everything, which is what Green wants. He has potential for range shooting 30% on low volume as an 18yo C far ahead of most, 70%^FT rate, is on rookie scale & control where if Zion doesn't pan out for whatever reason fit, health etc, NO's can pivot a rebuild with an ideal C to build around. These 2 way C's who can space are so hard to find trade for, they have more value & the fit is necessary with Zion. Sarr will be a better switch defender than Allen, he has handles to start a fast break off a rebound to push pace, has potential to space the floor like Okongwu but with better size/length & despite the 12m #1 price tag the best cost control of the 3 targets.

Herb is an elite role player on a championship team on a great contract. The tradeoff for #1 Sarr, is Hunters bad contract but he'd be a serviceable 2 way SF that can backup Murphy. Give starters minutes or be flipped. BI's 50m is now Murphy's extension Hunters unwanted salary, Murray's value contract, a 3 for 1 financial swap. Herb's value contract is now Sarr's rookie contract. 4 players for 2 financial swap. Hunter & Murray are both individual down grades from Herb but both are 2 way players with Daniels elite defense waiting in the wings. Herb is the value attached to an expiring BI on an unwanted extension to net the #1 pick.

I'd hate to lose Herb but it's a fair tradeoff. Atlanta want Herb, NO's want #1 Sarr. Elite wing defender for potential unicorn that Zion needs with Daniels elite defense developing offensively. At 20 Daniels is the best on ball defender on the team. Herb is further along offensively but it's a place Daniels can potentially reach.

Every move has it's risk, this one raises the teams ceiling.

[Whole Truth]

Financially both teams benefit. NO's extend Murphy's fit, net 2 2way guards for BI's 50m in Murray & Hunter. They basically get 3 players over giving BI 50m. Where BI has as much injury risk as Hunter but at a higher cost/risk. Atlanta dump Hunter's risk adverse contract to extend BI. Trade the potential of the #1 pick at 12m to get a proven elite 3D wing at the same 12m to pair Young with over the risk of waiting on the #1 pick where Young is growing impatient & they don't own their draft for the next 3yrs.

Herb's elite wing defense at 12m, controlled, is traded for #1 Sarr's defensive switch ability at the rim & potential to space the floor as a C at 12m, rookie scale & control. Where Herb is developed under less control & Sarr has better overall control on his potential. That if anything went wrong with the Zion experiment, NO's can pivot around a 2 way C where Herb is capped as an elite role player.

Hunter can backup Murphy, give quality 2 way depth at BI's position. CJ & Murray will bridge a development gap for Daniels & pending on the speed of his development. Murray can be flipped as a value contract under the new cap, turn over value to sustain future success.

Sarr - vet FA signing
Zion - Nance - Hunter
Murphy - Hunter - Daniels
CJ - Hawkins - Daniels
Murray - Jose - Daniels

The trade doesn't yield results, worse case a good draft pick in 25 in combination with a Lakers pick with some lotto projection.

My projection for the teams ceiling

Sarr
Zion
Murphy
25 draft, 2 way scorer - Hawkins
Daniels

If NO's can get Sarr & Daniels who are 19 & 20 respectively shooting 30% from 3 on low volume to 35/36% or hopefully better, they smiling defensively. Elite perimeter man defender with an elite switch able rim protector.

At 19 Sarr is ahead of the curve from 3 shooting 30%, he's raw in the post but NO's don't necessarily want him operating in that area, so I like the ZIon fit for him also. NO's shooting coach gets him respectable from 3, he has handles for a potential face up game, which means at 7' he can take his man off the bounce if they close out hard on a Zion drive & kick.

Absolutely hate to lose Herb who's proven but I make this trade 9/10 times.

[Whole Truth]

Sorry for being redundant but I think this post I made on the trade board is a better summary of trade than the last couple posts.

The Pels recent link of (Murray, Hunter, #1) for (BI, Herb)

I think is a good trade for both teams. NO's fans don't want to part with Herb, Hawks don't want to part with the #1 pick.

Herb is a proven elite 3D wing on a 12m contract that just won 1st team defense among 4 big men. He slots in well next to young now. #1 Sarr is a potential unicorn but undeveloped where Young is ready to win now, where they don't own their draft for 3yrs to risk the potential of the #1 pick coming with Herb's 12m value point but proven.

Dumping Hunter 20m 4yrs with Murray 30m 4yrs for the SF upgrade allows Hawks to extend BI without adding cost to a team near or in the tax.

Okongwu
BI - extended in dumping Hunters contract
Johnson
Herb - 12m price point of #1 pick but PROVEN elite 3D wing who just won 1st team defense.
Young

Sarr 19 - unproven potential unicorn that Zion has proven to need, which is harder to obtain
Zion 23
Murphy 23
Hawkins 22
Daniels 20

CJ & Murray bridge a development gap for Daniels who's elite defensively but needs to improve offensively. Viewed as Herbs potential replacement. NO's turn BI's pending extension into Murphy, Murray & Hunter, 3-1, reset their ceiling timeline with Sarr's potential, control & fit with Zion who's still only 23. Banking on Sarr's, Daniels defense & offensive potential. With Zion still only 23, Sarr's is under better control than Herb, where worse case Zion proves he can't stay healthy or they miss BI more than expected. NO's will get a good pick in a strong 25 class in combination with a Laker pick that has some lotto projection, that they can pivot to a quick rebuild with none being older than 23.

[Whole Truth]

Talk of getting the #1 pick to trade down. I can maximize that idea but think that's not the best course of action.

Spurs are intrigued by Dalton knecht low floor but refined player. He doesn't project to fall pass 3. So if whoever selects at 2-3 likes Sarr at 1, NO's can get an asset from either of those teams in a trade down, then trade down again with Spurs for 4 & 8 if Spurs get Knecht & a PG.

Basically NO's can swap out Murray, #1 for say a player they like from #2/3 & net 4 & 8. Draft Reed at 4 & a C at 8. I would like a shot at Reed too but not at the cost of Herb & Sarr.

[Whole Truth]

Reposting a post from my conversation on the Spurs board.

I think I'm starting to see how Spurs fit into this rumor. NO's board talking about trading down from #1.

Hawks like Herb getting a proven elite 3D guard at the 12m price point of the potential #1.

Grey mentions interest in Knecht from Spurs who's not projected to fall pass 3

Washington is rumored to have interest in Sarr at 2

You rusty, say you want a PG & SF to consider moving 4 & 8 (#2 Knecht F & a PG)

I don't know why but I think NO's are thinking Reed & trading 8 for Allen while netting an additional player/asset for trading down from 2. Maybe getting Deni to flip to the Cavs.

NO offense but I hope not, While I'd like Reed too, Sarr is my primary target. A player & fit like Sarr is harder to find than a combo of Reed & Allen. If I'm parting with Herb, it's for Sarr not maximizing assets.

[Whole Truth]

Part of the selection process & build, is catering to the coach. Green wants to switch defensively & push pace.

Alexander Sarr -
Pros

- Has good length at 7'1" with a 7'4" wing span & I think 9'4 or 6 standing reach
- Has the foot speed to effectively switch onto guards with his size & length.
- He has good recovery instincts
- Defends ball screens well & his off ball positioning is good
- Has the timing & IQ to be an elite shot blocker, rim protector
- Has the handles, athleticism & speed to push pace, run the floor & finish off a rebound
- Same handles for a potential face up game & to take his man off the dribble on a Zion kick
- above average court vision & passing for a C
- beside being a defensive impact out the gate, he has shown the drive to make the potential work

Cons

- limited in the post & lacks offensive versatility but NO's don't want that space occupied.
- He's inconsistent in the pick & pop but is 19.
- He's slender like some of the recent big men & will struggle with contact
- As a result of that lack of strength & switch ability he struggles to grab defensive rebounds
- Most project him at the 4 next to a physical presence. Zion is a physical presence.
- 30% 3pt shooter on low volume but once again, he's 19.

Basically some strength training & NO's shooting coach putting in work

[Whole Truth]

Another post from the Hawks board on Sarrs shooting potential.

Sarr's touch indicators, the volume on those shots, and 3-point frequency compared to other stretch 5's pre-NBA samples suggest that he'll eventually create gravity from the perimeter.