2024 Draft Thread - Part II

[Ed Wood]

Also while I think Evan Mobley is a pretty optimistic projection for Sarr, there have been a surprising (to me anyway) number of reactions I've seen to that parallel that essentially amounted to "spend a high pick in this draft on Evan Mobley? Pass." Is the perception that Mobley is a pretty exceptional player something less than consensus?

e: There's quite a lot to digest here: https://medium.com/@AdamPikeGrizzliesFilm/alexandre-sarr-ff8238f4b52f

[NatP4]

Mobley has disappointed relative to pre-draft expectations. Improved this year, but 16.9 points on 58% TS for his career, doesn’t shoot 3s. Turns 23 in a week. EPM has him ranked 73rd overall, around guys like Lively/Keegan Murray. Cleveland got dominated on the glass in the playoffs with Mobley being forced to play the 5, but he really doesn’t stretch the floor like a 4.

That’s a ceiling projection for Sarr IMO.

[nate33]

Also while I think Evan Mobley is a pretty optimistic projection for Sarr, there have been a surprising (to me anyway) number of reactions I've seen to that parallel that essentially amounted to "spend a high pick in this draft on Evan Mobley? Pass." Is the perception that Mobley is a pretty exceptional player something less than consensus?

e: There's quite a lot to digest here: https://medium.com/@AdamPikeGrizzliesFilm/alexandre-sarr-ff8238f4b52f

I think Mobley is undervalued. It's true that his production hasn't quite lived up to the hype, but I really think it's mostly due to his situation in Cleveland playing out of position at PF. Mobley will be an impact player once he moves to center full time.

I would sure as hell trade the #2 overall pick for him without hesitation. I'd throw in the #26 and Kuzma too.

[nate33]

It does seem like Risacher is trending towards Atlanta. I wouldn't be unhappy watching Risacher, Deni and Bilal as our wings - just don't think it is going to happen. Atlanta won 36 games and could use a wing that can hit the open 3.

Unless Portland sees Sarr next to Ayton, then I think we are drafting #2.

I really don't know what the FO is going to do, they have been really good at obfuscating their intents (yay!).

The Portland board was talking about 7&14 for 2 if Sarr is on the board. No question, that is the right move for us.

Agreed. My enthusiasm for Sarr is fading. Even if Sarr falls to #2, I'd trade down as long as we still get a pick in the top 8. I want one of Castle, Holland or Buzelis and I'm confident at least one of them will be there at #8.

[nate33]

The Portland board was talking about 7&14 for 2 if Sarr is on the board. No question, that is the right move for us.

I don’t think our FO does that deal if Sarr is available. They loved Bilal last year and Sarr has many of the same qualities

I don't think our FO has tipped its hand. I agree with NatP4, I think it is the right deal for the Wizards at this point (opinion).

But at this point - the FO is terrific at obfuscating what they are going to do... so

I have confidence in our front office to make the right call. I'm sure they're doing their due diligence on these prospects. If they believe Sarr is a grinder who will work relentlessly to improve, then I'm okay if they draft him. And if they don't think Sarr has that mindset, I'm pretty confident they won't draft him.

[DCZards]

I don’t think our FO does that deal if Sarr is available. They loved Bilal last year and Sarr has many of the same qualities

I don't think our FO has tipped its hand. I agree with NatP4, I think it is the right deal for the Wizards at this point (opinion).

But at this point - the FO is terrific at obfuscating what they are going to do... so

I have confidence in our front office to make the right call. I'm sure they're doing their due diligence on these prospects. If they believe Sarr is a grinder who will work relentlessly to improve, then I'm okay if they draft him. And if they don't think Sarr has that mindset, I'm pretty confident they won't draft him.

Yeah...you really have to expect/hope that the Zards FO will do its job. They certainly have more intel on these draft prospects than we do.

Assuming that they believe he'll put in the work to get better, I think the Zards FO will draft Sarr if he's there at 2. They'll like his size, athleticism and defense...and will be willing to play the long game as far as the development of his offense is concerned.

[nate33]

LOL Just to irritate my guy PIF:

https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-draft-history-how-likely-are-you-to-land-a-star-at-each-pick/?itm_source=parsely-api

This is awesome, though it's presented in a format that's difficult to read and compare. To summarize, here are the historical chances of each pick making an All-NBA team. (I picked that criteria because it's not tainted by the East/West disparity for All-Star voting, and it has a much larger sample size than All-NBA 1st team or MVP.)

Pick Odds
#1 - 38.67%
#2 - 20.00%
#3 - 26.67%
#4 - 14.47%
#5 - 22.37%
#6 - 6.49%
#7 - 9.86%
#8 - 12.16%
#9 - 12.00%
#10 - 12.33%
#11 - 8.96%
#12 - 5.71%
#13 - 6.94%
#14 - 5.71%
#15 - 5.88%
#16 - 4.29%
#17 - 5.88%
#18 - 1.47%
#19 - 4.48%
#20 - 1.56%
#21 - 1.61%
#22 - 4.92%
#23 - 3.39%
#24 - 3.03%
#25 - 1.61%
#26 - 0.00%
#27 - 6.56%
#28 - 3.39%
#29 - 3.57%
#30 - 6.90%

It's pretty fair to say there is a clear trendline as you fall from 1 through 15 or so, but the second half of the first round looks like a totally random crapshoot. lol that we are picking 26th, the one spot that has never produced an All-NBA player.

I wonder if there's any explanation for picks 27-30 looking so much better other than pure random chance? Could it have something to do with better prospects dropping out of team workouts after receiving a First Round promise (and the associated guaranteed contract)?

I also wonder if these stats count each season a player makes All-NBA, or only counts once for each unique player?

[doclinkin]

I wonder if there's any explanation for picks 27-30 looking so much better other than pure random chance? Could it have something to do with better prospects dropping out of team workouts after receiving a First Round promise (and the associated guaranteed contract)?

Or more likely that winning teams tend to make smart decisions, which is why they win. Thus they pick late every year. And end up with good players anyway. Because they know what to look for in the guys that fall to them. And are better at coaching them up and developing them.

Also, there is probably a bias in All-NBA selections towards players on winning teams, they get the spotlight and big games on national broadcasts. So they are more likely to get selected for various honors. All-star games etc.

[doclinkin]

https://therookiewire.usatoday.com/2024/05/31/dayton-daron-holmes-nba-draft-promise-rumors/?itm_source=parsely-api

All-American DaRon Holmes rumored to have received first-round draft promise.

Former Dayton forward DaRon Holmes II is reportedly gaining traction to become a first-round pick in the 2024 NBA draft, according to Jonathan Givony of ESPN.

Holmes recently canceled predraft workouts with several teams, creating speculation that he has received a draft promise. He was considered a borderline first-round pick but has apparently improved his stock to be a lock to go in the top 30.

Sources told ESPN Holmes recently canceled several workouts, raising strong suspicions that he has secured a guarantee in the back part of the first round. Coming off a productive career at Dayton in which he made strides as a shooter (38% from 3 last season), Holmes appears to have helped himself in the pre-draft process, moving himself into the first-round picture.

Holmes was a consensus second-team All-American this past season with the Flyers, averaging 20.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 2.1 blocks in 33 games. He was also named the Atlantic 10 Co-Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.

The 6-foot-10 center appears to have had a strong predraft process. It now looks like Holmes will be drafted toward the back of the end of the first round, with teams like Washington Minnesota, Utah, Denver and Boston positioned in that range.

[doclinkin]

DJ Burns down 45 pounds, at a workout for the Lakers.

[Frichuela]

https://therookiewire.usatoday.com/2024/05/31/dayton-daron-holmes-nba-draft-promise-rumors/?itm_source=parsely-api

All-American DaRon Holmes rumored to have received first-round draft promise.

Former Dayton forward DaRon Holmes II is reportedly gaining traction to become a first-round pick in the 2024 NBA draft, according to Jonathan Givony of ESPN.

Holmes recently canceled predraft workouts with several teams, creating speculation that he has received a draft promise. He was considered a borderline first-round pick but has apparently improved his stock to be a lock to go in the top 30.

Sources told ESPN Holmes recently canceled several workouts, raising strong suspicions that he has secured a guarantee in the back part of the first round. Coming off a productive career at Dayton in which he made strides as a shooter (38% from 3 last season), Holmes appears to have helped himself in the pre-draft process, moving himself into the first-round picture.

Holmes was a consensus second-team All-American this past season with the Flyers, averaging 20.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 2.1 blocks in 33 games. He was also named the Atlantic 10 Co-Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.

The 6-foot-10 center appears to have had a strong predraft process. It now looks like Holmes will be drafted toward the back of the end of the first round, with teams like Washington Minnesota, Utah, Denver and Boston positioned in that range.

Awesome. Holmes college stats are strikingly similar to Al Horford… virtually identical in most categories…

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=daron-holmes-ii--al-horford

[Dat2U]

Mobley has disappointed relative to pre-draft expectations. Improved this year, but 16.9 points on 58% TS for his career, doesn’t shoot 3s. Turns 23 in a week. EPM has him ranked 73rd overall, around guys like Lively/Keegan Murray. Cleveland got dominated on the glass in the playoffs with Mobley being forced to play the 5, but he really doesn’t stretch the floor like a 4.

That’s a ceiling projection for Sarr IMO.

So in your world, Mobley disappoints but Giddey a developing into a stud.

Not a hint of bias there at all, I'm sure, lol.

[Dat2U]

https://therookiewire.usatoday.com/2024/05/31/dayton-daron-holmes-nba-draft-promise-rumors/?itm_source=parsely-api

All-American DaRon Holmes rumored to have received first-round draft promise.

Former Dayton forward DaRon Holmes II is reportedly gaining traction to become a first-round pick in the 2024 NBA draft, according to Jonathan Givony of ESPN.

Holmes recently canceled predraft workouts with several teams, creating speculation that he has received a draft promise. He was considered a borderline first-round pick but has apparently improved his stock to be a lock to go in the top 30.

Sources told ESPN Holmes recently canceled several workouts, raising strong suspicions that he has secured a guarantee in the back part of the first round. Coming off a productive career at Dayton in which he made strides as a shooter (38% from 3 last season), Holmes appears to have helped himself in the pre-draft process, moving himself into the first-round picture.

Holmes was a consensus second-team All-American this past season with the Flyers, averaging 20.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 2.1 blocks in 33 games. He was also named the Atlantic 10 Co-Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.

The 6-foot-10 center appears to have had a strong predraft process. It now looks like Holmes will be drafted toward the back of the end of the first round, with teams like Washington Minnesota, Utah, Denver and Boston positioned in that range.

Awesome. Holmes college stats are strikingly similar to Al Horford… virtually identical in most categories…

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=daron-holmes-ii--al-horford

I have Holmes around 15 on my board so far so a 1st round promise makes a lot of sense for team in the late first that sees the value. I would not be mad at all if the Wizards were that team.

[tontoz]

Also while I think Evan Mobley is a pretty optimistic projection for Sarr, there have been a surprising (to me anyway) number of reactions I've seen to that parallel that essentially amounted to "spend a high pick in this draft on Evan Mobley? Pass." Is the perception that Mobley is a pretty exceptional player something less than consensus?

e: There's quite a lot to digest here: https://medium.com/@AdamPikeGrizzliesFilm/alexandre-sarr-ff8238f4b52f

I think Mobley is undervalued. It's true that his production hasn't quite lived up to the hype, but I really think it's mostly due to his situation in Cleveland playing out of position at PF. Mobley will be an impact player once he moves to center full time.

I would sure as hell trade the #2 overall pick for him without hesitation. I'd throw in the #26 and Kuzma too.

I am not so sure about that. Mobley is pretty skinny to be a full time center. He is listed at 215 pounds. He looks to be a tweener to me, not big enough to defend the C position but not skilled enough to play the 4 effectively.

[nate33]

Also while I think Evan Mobley is a pretty optimistic projection for Sarr, there have been a surprising (to me anyway) number of reactions I've seen to that parallel that essentially amounted to "spend a high pick in this draft on Evan Mobley? Pass." Is the perception that Mobley is a pretty exceptional player something less than consensus?

e: There's quite a lot to digest here: https://medium.com/@AdamPikeGrizzliesFilm/alexandre-sarr-ff8238f4b52f

I think Mobley is undervalued. It's true that his production hasn't quite lived up to the hype, but I really think it's mostly due to his situation in Cleveland playing out of position at PF. Mobley will be an impact player once he moves to center full time.

I would sure as hell trade the #2 overall pick for him without hesitation. I'd throw in the #26 and Kuzma too.

I am not so sure about that. Mobley is pretty skinny to be a full time center. He is listed at 215 pounds. He looks to be a tweener to me, not big enough to defend the C position but not skilled enough to play the 4 effectively.

He'll continue to fill out.

[NatP4]

I don’t think that’s a given. Mobley lacks rebounding instincts. 9.5 rebounds per 36 in the playoffs. Cleveland ranked 14 out of 16 playoff teams in rebounding, only above Miami and Phoenix.

Mobley switches well on defense, but only posts 1.7 blocks for his career.

[DCZards]

I don’t think that’s a given. Mobley lacks rebounding instincts. 9.5 rebounds per 36 in the playoffs. Cleveland ranked 14 out of 16 playoff teams in rebounding, only above Miami and Phoenix.

Mobley switches well on defense, but only posts 1.7 blocks for his career.

Mobley was 6th in the NBA in blocks in 2022-23. Not bad.

Fell off last season. But he also was injured a lot. Knee and ankle injuries. Mobley only played in 50 games last season.

[nate33]

I don’t think that’s a given. Mobley lacks rebounding instincts. 9.5 rebounds per 36 in the playoffs. Cleveland ranked 14 out of 16 playoff teams in rebounding, only above Miami and Phoenix.

Mobley switches well on defense, but only posts 1.7 blocks for his career.

Mobley was 6th in the NBA in blocks in 2022-23. Not bad.

Fell off last season. But he also was injured a lot. Knee and ankle injuries. Mobley only played in 50 games last season.

Mobley was 3rd in DOPY voting in his second season at age 21. I'm not worried about him.

[NatP4]

I don’t think that’s a given. Mobley lacks rebounding instincts. 9.5 rebounds per 36 in the playoffs. Cleveland ranked 14 out of 16 playoff teams in rebounding, only above Miami and Phoenix.

Mobley switches well on defense, but only posts 1.7 blocks for his career.

Mobley was 6th in the NBA in blocks in 2022-23. Not bad.

Fell off last season. But he also was injured a lot. Knee and ankle injuries. Mobley only played in 50 games last season.

2023-2024 was his best season by far.

Regardless, the discussion should be centered around Sarr and the 2nd overall pick in the draft. The comparison has nothing to do with this hypothetical version of Mobley years from now.

[nate33]

I find this dataset interesting so I'm posting the numbers again with 3-pick and 5-pick moving averages for the probability of landing an All-NBA player at each spot in the first round. The 5-pick moving average smooths out the statistical variance. It's a perfectly steady decline from 30% straight down to about 3% at pick 19. Then it plateaus through 27, and then the odds of drafting an All-NBA guy actually increase over the final few picks.

Code: Select all

Pick   Odds   M-Avg 3   M-Avg 5
#1   38.67%      
#2   20.00%   28.45%   
#3   26.67%   20.38%   24.44%
#4   14.47%   21.17%   18.00%
#5   22.37%   14.44%   15.97%
#6    6.49%   12.91%   13.07%
#7    9.86%    9.50%   12.58%
#8   12.16%   11.34%   10.57%
#9   12.00%   12.16%   11.06%
#10  12.33%   11.10%   10.23%
#11   8.96%    9.00%    9.19%
#12   5.71%    7.20%    7.93%
#13   6.94%    6.12%    6.64%
#14   5.71%    6.18%    5.71%
#15   5.88%    5.29%    5.74%
#16   4.29%    5.35%    4.65%
#17   5.88%    3.88%    4.40%
#18   1.47%    3.94%    3.54%
#19   4.48%    2.50%    3.00%
#20   1.56%    2.55%    2.81%
#21   1.61%    2.70%    3.19%
#22   4.92%    3.31%    2.90%
#23   3.39%    3.78%    2.91%
#24   3.03%    2.68%    2.59%
#25   1.61%    1.55%    2.92%
#26   0.00%    2.72%    2.92%
#27   6.56%    3.32%    3.03%
#28   3.39%    4.51%    4.08%
#29   3.57%    5.79%   
#30   6.90%

I hope this chart puts a stop to the tedious discussion of the value of trading down. We have pretty clear data that high picks are a lot more valuable than low picks throughout the lottery range. There is data to support PIF's general theory that more late picks are better than few early picks, but only if we are talking about the second half of the first round.