2024 Draft Thread - Part II

[NatP4]

Data set is from what timeframe? Don’t see it in article

[Frichuela]

No mention of the Wizards (or the Rockets)…

Read on Twitter

?s=61&t=ICcggtNoAgpgLzxKVsmDBw

[Rafael122]

Read on Twitter

And for that reason, I'm out.

[tontoz]

No mention of the Wizards (or the Rockets)…

yeah that's odd, but he seems to believe he is going top 5.

[Jay81]

Read on Twitter

And for that reason, I'm out.

lol because he may not play in summer league?

[nate33]

Data set is from what timeframe? Don’t see it in article

I don't know.

[Rafael122]

Read on Twitter

And for that reason, I'm out.

lol because he may not play in summer league?

This is the first "true" draft under Winger and Dawkins. They came in very late in the process last year and they probably took the kid that Dawkins would have taken anyway with the OKC pick. This is already his second knee injury in like 4 months, too risky at this juncture. It's clear he's not cleared to do basketball activities.

BTW draft measurements for some European prospects will take place starting today through the 7th.

[closg00]

Topic’s comment , not prepped by an agent to give a non-answer answer on his knee, but there is no escaping the facts, anyone drafting him will be taking a huge gamble, a gamble one can make if you have pick(s) to burn, but certainly not a lottery pick.

[payitforward]

LOL Just to irritate my guy PIF:

https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-draft-history-how-likely-are-you-to-land-a-star-at-each-pick/?itm_source=parsely-api

According to this no doubt well-researched piece of analysis 65.33% of #1 picks will become all stars." Let's define "all star" as a guy who's played in more than 1 all-star game. Here are the 10 #1 picks from 2005-2014:
Bogut
Bargnani
Greg Oden
Derrick Rose
Blake Griffin
John Wall
Kyrie Irving
Anthony Davis
Anthony Bennett
Andrew Wiggins

5 have played in more than one all star game (Rose, Griffin, Wall, Irving, & Davis). Another, Wiggins, has played in one all star game. So yeah that's not far off.

The #2 picks, says this source, yields 42.67% all stars.

Here are the 10 from those years:
Marvin Williams
LaMarcus Aldridge 7
Kevin Durant 14
Michael Beasley
Hasheem Thabeet
Evan Turner
Derrick Williams
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Victor Oladipo 2
Jabari Parker

3 guys have played in more than 1 all star game: the other 7 were never all stars.

Here's how to lie with statistics -- KD has been in 14 all star games, Aldridge in 7, Oladipo in 2. That's a total of 21 among the 10. So, you can say that a #2 pick has a slightly higher than 50% chance of being an all star.

Meanwhile, the truth is that 4 of the 10 were complete busts (Beasley, Thabeet, Williams, & Kidd-Gilchrist), another was scarcely better than a bust (Parker), & 2 more were journeymen or slightly better (Williams & Turner).

The #3 pick, we learn from this analysis, produces 45.33% all stars.

Once again, here are the relevant 10:
Deron Williams
Adam Morrison
Al Horford
OJ Mayo
James Harden
Derrick Favors
Enes Kanter
Bradley Beal
Otto Porter Jr.
Joel Embiid

I'm not going to go through this group, but it would be fair to say that Morrison & Mayo were complete busts, & Favors, Kanter, & Porter were at least disappointing.

[gesa2]

To go all in on pedantry, PIF if you want to say this:

Here's how to lie with statistics -- KD has been in 14 all star games, Aldridge in 7, Oladipo in 2. That's a total of 21 among the 10. So, you can say that a #2 pick has a slightly higher than 50% chance of being an all star.

you should be concluding that you can say 200% of #2 picks are all stars

[gambitx777]

Is anyone else just not impressed with sar.

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[Dat2U]

Is anyone else just not impressed with sar.

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Compared to past drafts and past top 3 picks, I agree, he's not overly impressive.

Compared to this class and this class alone, he looks like he should be the #1 pick and no lower than #3 at the worst.

[Dat2U]

LOL Just to irritate my guy PIF:

https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-draft-history-how-likely-are-you-to-land-a-star-at-each-pick/?itm_source=parsely-api

According to this no doubt well-researched piece of analysis 65.33% of #1 picks will become all stars." Let's define "all star" as a guy who's played in more than 1 all-star game. Here are the 10 #1 picks from 2005-2014:
Bogut
Bargnani
Greg Oden
Derrick Rose
Blake Griffin
John Wall
Kyrie Irving
Anthony Davis
Anthony Bennett
Andrew Wiggins

5 have played in more than one all star game (Rose, Griffin, Wall, Irving, & Davis). Another, Wiggins, has played in one all star game. So yeah that's not far off.

The #2 picks, says this source, yields 42.67% all stars.

Here are the 10 from those years:
Marvin Williams
LaMarcus Aldridge 7
Kevin Durant 14
Michael Beasley
Hasheem Thabeet
Evan Turner
Derrick Williams
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Victor Oladipo 2
Jabari Parker

3 guys have played in more than 1 all star game: the other 7 were never all stars.

Here's how to lie with statistics -- KD has been in 14 all star games, Aldridge in 7, Oladipo in 2. That's a total of 21 among the 10. So, you can say that a #2 pick has a slightly higher than 50% chance of being an all star.

Meanwhile, the truth is that 4 of the 10 were complete busts (Beasley, Thabeet, Williams, & Kidd-Gilchrist), another was scarcely better than a bust (Parker), & 2 more were journeymen or slightly better (Williams & Turner).

The #3 pick, we learn from this analysis, produces 45.33% all stars.

Once again, here are the relevant 10:
Deron Williams
Adam Morrison
Al Horford
OJ Mayo
James Harden
Derrick Favors
Enes Kanter
Bradley Beal
Otto Porter Jr.
Joel Embiid

I'm not going to go through this group, but it would be fair to say that Morrison & Mayo were complete busts, & Favors, Kanter, & Porter were at least disappointing.

Ok so are you applying this same exact analysis to the rest of the draft? Imagine how much the numbers lie when it comes to picks 5 through 60?

[closg00]

Is anyone else just not impressed with sar.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

I want to go back in time after the Spurs have made their first pack, and take that player

[The Consiglieri]

I just took a good look at Isaiah Collier and I find myself intrigued. He seems like a real boom/bust prospect. I'm a sucker for guys who can get to the rim at will, and he is definitely one of them. A skill like that can make you an All-Star if you can put everything else together.

Overall, he has too many issues for me to take him with a pick in the 10-15 range (that we might conceivably obtain in a Kuzma trade), but I am fascinated enough with his physical profile and penetration ability that I would love to take a risk on him with a lower pick and hope the development staff can fix his deficiencies. I see him mocked at 17, 19 and 14 at Tankathon, Ringer and CBS Sports respectively, which is probably a bit high. But if he falls into the low 20's so that we can move up from #26 to get him at a low cost, I might consider it. There is a possibility that he evolves into a Baron Davis type of player.

I said in an earlier post that I thought Collier’s ability to get to the basket almost at will would serve him well at the next level. I also believe that that ability will result in him being a top 15 pick.

It's lazy non-analysis on my part, but I do think it's worth putting him an asterisk on him and remembering that he was #1 to #2 on a few boards 9 months ago, indeed I think he was #1, #2 or #3 on most of the boards I saw. I love to mine talent that slips like that when I have extra picks because with teenagers all sorts of weirdness can happen in small sample size windows, just as it does with adults. He's fallen for justifiable reasons, but he definitely should be a guy we consider as he falls/if he falls into the mid teens and below, the raw talent is there for something more, if he builds on his potential tools, that's true of all prospects in some fashion but most don't have the ceiling Collier had according to most scouts last fall.

[dckingsfan]

Topic’s comment , not prepped by an agent to give a non-answer answer on his knee, but there is no escaping the facts, anyone drafting him will be taking a huge gamble, a gamble one can make if you have pick(s) to burn, but certainly not a lottery pick.

If we got the two picks from Portland, I would take him with 14.

[dckingsfan]

I hope this chart puts a stop to the tedious discussion of the value of trading down. We have pretty clear data that high picks are a lot more valuable than low picks throughout the lottery range. There is data to support PIF's general theory that more late picks are better than few early picks, but only if we are talking about the second half of the first round.

But isn't that the interesting part of this year's draft? It looks deep but not top end loaded. if there was a year to trade down...

[nate33]

I hope this chart puts a stop to the tedious discussion of the value of trading down. We have pretty clear data that high picks are a lot more valuable than low picks throughout the lottery range. There is data to support PIF's general theory that more late picks are better than few early picks, but only if we are talking about the second half of the first round.

But isn't that the interesting part of this year's draft? It looks deep but not top end loaded. if there was a year to trade down...

I don't disagree. You still have to assess each draft individually. But clearly, high picks are considerably more valuable than low picks historically. PIF's annual goal of turning one lotto pick in to 8 SRP's in the 50's isn't a good strategy.

[Rafael122]

Is anyone else just not impressed with sar.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

I'm more comfortable taking him than Risacher. This entire process for me has been with the rationale that Sarr won't be there at 2. Now it seems like it's possible. I'm intrigued, is he Evan Mobley? Is he JJJ? Offense will hopefully come but he's got a good base to start off with.

[tontoz]

PIF's annual goal of turning one lotto pick in to 8 SRP's in the 50's isn't a good strategy.