The match ups favor Celtics heavily because they got two point guard stoppers in White and Holiday.

[MassimoPayne]

My prediction is Kyrie shoots 42% for the series, he'll still be effective, but not a star, just a 2nd tier above average player. The two way PG defensive duo Celtics got is serious. Its not a joke, they have shut down way stronger players than Kyrie.

Who did they shut down stronger than Kyrie during these playoffs?

[BeiBeau]

Luka and Kyrie will make them look like incompetent, regardless they are all nba defensive players

It bugs me when people lump Luka and Kyrie together as these all world players. Luka is gonna get his, but Kyrie can definitely be shut down, OKC did it for an entire series.

the luka love is justified, the Kyrie glazing is people thinking its 2016.

OKC was largely doubling Kyrie because Luka was injured.

[cupcakesnake]

I wouldn't lock in the defensive advantage of those point guards. I was pretty confident with Jaden, Ant, and Naw making Luka and Kyrie's life hell, but they shredded what had been a monstrous defensive backcourt up until that point.

I do think it's possible that White and Holiday will be able to make Kyrie uncomfortable, and that's a better matchup. But Luka might be too big and could force Boston to use their wings there. We ended up needing Kyle Anderson to do a ton of Luka guarding.

Remember that Dallas loves to run a ton of drag screens and a ton of stagger screens. It's not just about having a good initial matchup, it's about guarding Luka while navigating 2 screens, then trying to stop him from scoring or setting up the lob. On top of that stagger, the remaining guys will screen on the baseline to prevent you from being able to tag or help, and bring another threat of an open corner 3.

I guess I'm just saying for Boston fans: yes your defense has been rock solid all season long but you should take Dallas very seriously. They made a lot of our perimeter defenders look much less intimidating.

[brackdan70]

That is part of what makes it so interesting.

Also, who is going to guard Luka? It's got to be Brown, right? Holiday and White will be undersized matched up on Washington or Jones.... will it even matter? Or do you think one of them will match up on Luka and try to pester him?

It's going to be fun to see how it unfolds and what adjustments will take place.

Yep. A lot of Brown, but will see a mix.

[Bloodbather]

Kyrie is definitely the key to this series. Whether his bad blood with the Celtics impacts his play, positively or negatively, and how he deals with their perimeter defense. The Mavs will need both Dončić and Kyrie to be at the top of their game in order to be able to keep up with the Celtics. If they stick with them to the end of games, I'd favor them.

It kinda reminds me of the 2016 Finals in this sense. The Celtics, like the Warriors, have the potential to blow games open with their shooting and defense. The Mavs, like the Cavs, will want to slow it down and stick with them to the end to get the edge in the clutch.

[Mavrelous]

The matchups do favour the Celtics heavily, but it's on the other end of the floor, Celtics aren't anything special defensively compared to the Wolves or the Thunder.
On paper, Celtics should win because they have historically unstoppable offense that Mavs defense, while good against most matchups, doesn't match up well against.

[Pinpilinpauxa]

All the people on the board breaking down the series, stats, prediction. In truth it comes down to match ups and a few points:

1. Doncic will get his, Tatum/Brown will get theirs. There is no stopping this.

2. Irving is Dallas 2nd best player, and the Celtics' two best defenders are PGs White and Holiday. They won't stop Irving. Irving will have a game or two where he pops 30+. But overall he will be at lower FG% and efficiency overall in the series. Dallas biggest strength will turn into their biggest weakness. Especially if Irving volume shoots and holds the ball too long.

3. Contrary to popular belief, Porzingis is Celtics 2nd most efficient player based on pure stats, and he's back for the finals. He adds a new dimensions of post defense, an efficient post offense, and a killer 3pt shot. He's become the complete package over the years.

4. Also Irving is despised by Boston for a reason. While he played as a Celtics he missed practices cause he thought he was already too good, he promoted flat earth and other crazy ideas, he always blamed the team and never himself, he talked down to and yelled at the coaches, played a selfish game. He was the worst possible leader to have.

While I do think Mavericks are legit team that beat Wolves who i thought would come out of West, i think this is where their journey ends for this year. An its mainly because of match ups.

There is one thing i fear from Celtics. Their 3 point shooting and that they have 6 very good players.

But Luka and Irving wont face a better defense than Oklahomas back court . Their back-court players arent as strong and athletic as Dort and Jailen also Luka is much ealthier now. Luka and Kirye will have a series as good as VS Minesota.

I think this series will be about who has a better ofense because i cant see any of both defenses imposing their will VS 2 great attacks.

[TheSheriff]

The matchups do favour the Celtics heavily, but it's on the other end of the floor, Celtics aren't anything special defensively compared to the Wolves or the Thunder.
On paper, Celtics should win because they have historically unstoppable offense that Mavs defense, while good against most matchups, doesn't match up well against.

The Wolves had a better defense. The Celtics did have the second best defense this year. Moreover, their two best defensive players are guards. Luka probably gets guarded by a win, Jaylen Brown or Tatum, both of whom are very very good defenders.

In the regular season Tatum and Brown definitely do kill themselves on defense full time, but for a seven game series after a rest, look for them to work against Luka. Luka is still going to score, but the goal will be contain him as a playmaker.

[Mavrelous]

The matchups do favour the Celtics heavily, but it's on the other end of the floor, Celtics aren't anything special defensively compared to the Wolves or the Thunder.
On paper, Celtics should win because they have historically unstoppable offense that Mavs defense, while good against most matchups, doesn't match up well against.

The Wolves had a better defense. The Celtics did have the second best defense this year. Moreover, their two best defensive players are guards. Luka probably gets guarded by a win, Jaylen Brown or Tatum, both of whom are very very good defenders.

In the regular season Tatum and Brown definitely do kill themselves on defense full time, but for a seven game series after a rest, look for them to work against Luka. Luka is still going to score, but the goal will be contain him as a playmaker.

We'll see, it's not a 1 player task to stop Luka, but team task, and 3 coaches with excellent defensive tools failed to do it, 2 of them even had the fortune of having him injured for the series or part of it, maybe the Celtics are somehow better and smarter, we'll soon find out.

[ITYSL]

I've posted this before, but it's probably good to repeat. In the last two years, Boston is 4-0 vs. Dallas. In all 4 games, Luka scored HIGHER than his season average while Dallas as a team scored LOWER than their season average. The strategy is clear - let Luka get his but try to limit everyone else.

What makes this series different is that threat of the Lively/Gafford lob, which was not there for 3 of the last 4 games in which they've played. To limit those lobs, Boston will have to limit Luka's penetration into the paint, and try to prevent the lob as much as possible at the point of attack.

What I think that will mean in this series, at least to start, is that Boston will use several of their very good POA defenders - Jrue, White, Brown, Tatum - to limit Kyrie's efficiency. They will contest on 3s as best as possible from the Dallas role players, with many of those contests being in rotation.

As for the Luka PnR, I think we may see a mixed strategy. Sometimes the primary defender will go under the screen in order to limit Luka's penetration into the paint. At other times, you'll see a blitz of Luka just to get the ball out of his hands entirely. At other times, you'll see Boston pre-switching so that their big can stay low with Lively/Gafford. At other times, you'll see a dig by the perimeter defender to try to slow his movement into the paint. You could also see a combination of these, for example a pre-switch to keep the big low in combination with a blitz.

Boston used some of these strategies against Indiana, when the Pacers were targeting Horford on switches. This led to Horford being the primary defender on Siakam on a lot fewer possessions in games 3 and 4 vs. games 1 and 2. Game 1: 33 possessions. Game 2: 28. Game 3: 18. Game 4: 13.

None of these strategies will work 100% of the time, but some of them may work better than others, and some may work better at certain times of the game vs. others. In end-of-game situations, for example, a blitz combined with tight single coverage of Kyrie may slow down their clutch offense.

Luka is a transcendent offensive player, and so you have to throw varied coverages against him, not to shut him down entirely because that's not possible, but to slow down his ability to completely control the possession beyond just shooting a contested stepback 3.

[Johnny Bball]

Depends a fair bit on Porzingis and his health and if he can remotely defend in space vs Luka and Kyrie.

White and Jrue are fine defensive guards, but Dallas is going to flat out abuse Horford by PNR switching every single play, if Horford has to start or play big minutes. I'm not sure Porzingis is going to be markedly better, but he can't be as bad as Horford was last series in that spot, right?

Dallas's size is going to be an issue for Boston I think.

[cupcakesnake]

The matchups do favour the Celtics heavily, but it's on the other end of the floor, Celtics aren't anything special defensively compared to the Wolves or the Thunder.
On paper, Celtics should win because they have historically unstoppable offense that Mavs defense, while good against most matchups, doesn't match up well against.

I agree. There's no reason to think the Dallas offense is something you can stop with good defense/matchups. OKC did the best job so far so we'll if Boston can match or exceed that or show us something new. Minnesota had every defensive resource in terms of rim protection, point of attack defenders, and good defenders at every size, and we could not solve Dallas' primary action. OKC overplayed their primary action successfully, but then Dallas just flipped their entire offense around and found ways to outscore them.

Celtics are much better equipped than OKC or Minny to not let Dallas shrink the floor on defense. The Celtics are at their happiest when you let them swing the ball and bomb threes, so it will be interesting to see if Dallas has something else in their defensive toolbox after playing back-to-back low volume 3-point shooting teams. Boston led the league in 3-point rate in both the regular season and now the playoffs. The only team that bombs more threes than Dallas.

[Mavrelous]

so it will be interesting to see if Dallas has something else in their defensive toolbox after playing back-to-back low volume 3-point shooting teams.

This is my main concern, if you have to change your defensive philosophy you are already at a disadvantage, and there is no worse tiem to do it than against ATG SRS team, I am however very encouraged by the Wolves series and being able to win a game where you lose by 36 on 3pt scoring.

[cupcakesnake]

so it will be interesting to see if Dallas has something else in their defensive toolbox after playing back-to-back low volume 3-point shooting teams.

This is my main concern, if you have to change your defensive philosophy you are already at a disadvantage, and there is no worse tiem to do it than against ATG SRS team, I am however very encouraged by the Wolves series and being able to win a game where you lose by 36 on 3pt scoring.

If Dallas doesn't alter their scheme much, I think they still have a chaotic chance because of the random nature of the 3-point shot. Dallas can easily keep Boston away from the basket with their current scheme, so a couple nights of cold shooting could completely swing the advantage to the Mavericks. That could also easily result in Boston getting 20+ 3-point field goals and dooming the Mavericks.

Either way, this is a very different opponent for Dallas to guard.

[OldCeltics]

They call me the prophet. Everything I said would happen did happen.

Irving getting his but low efficiency.

Porzingis is Celtics 2nd most efficient player.

Irving playing the race card to attack Celtics fans showing his immaturity.

Doncic and Tatum/Brown getting theirs

4/4 on predictions

[OldCeltics]

Now here is another prediction. This series will not go 7. Celtics will finish it in 4 5 or 6.

[OldCeltics]

Tatum/Brown/White/Porzingis/Holiday are all-star level players. But they had to sacrifice to make it work. Tatum is all NBA 1st team, Brown and Porzingis all NBA 2nd team. Regardless of how the voting actually came out. Holiday has been an all-star in the past, and White just go look at his stats, they may be better than Brown/Tatum in efficiency.

The Mavs do not stand a chance. Nuggets or Wolves would have presented problems. But White and Holiday are PG stoppers, and can shut down Irving most nights. An Luka and bunch of role players just won't cut it.

The amount of talent like Celtics have is truly insane. 60% of ESPN analysts picking Dallas, despite Vegas clearly favoring Celtics just shows their knowledge of the game.

The time of the West domination has come to an end.

[ThumbsUpBaby]

The matchups do favour the Celtics heavily, but it's on the other end of the floor, Celtics aren't anything special defensively compared to the Wolves or the Thunder.
On paper, Celtics should win because they have historically unstoppable offense that Mavs defense, while good against most matchups, doesn't match up well against.

Where did this notion that Celtics' defense isn't anything special compared to the Wolves or the Thunder come from? We had one of the best defenses in the league, and even better numbers than the Thunder's.

[Handlez]

Please don't pretend picking the super team to beat the Mavs is an accomplishment.

Celtics stars don't even have to play well to win.

Team is absolutely loaded and there's no competitive dignity here.

[TheNewEra]

Celtics could really make this a breeze of a series if Tatum goes all out playing like a superstar. They have the tools to counter the Mavs with duo wing defenders and guards. They have the scoring options with KP and Brown alone plus White and Holiday can go off any game.