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kivancb wrote:https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/nba/boston-celtics/2024-nba-finals-simulation-celtics-mavericks-prediction/618142/
That sounds just about as expected, so I would expect slight changes in the final outcome, but not big ones.
Astaluego wrote:CoP wrote:Mr B wrote:You can’t compare losing a bench big to losing your star player. If the C’a had lost Tatum or Brown then that would be comparable.
A bench big? Yeah that's true, Kornet did get hurt in the Pacers series...
LMAO
As a Mavs fan, I know a little about KP's history (even if the recovery time has been adequate)... and I know the soleus injuries well, it seems like you recovered, everything is fine and suddenly goodbye... Especially with all that tension of a final... I don't have a crystal ball and I don't want anyone to get hurt, but I don't see KP lasting the entire series.
kacey ring wrote:Poll is at 242 for Cs, 232 for Mavs. Interesting.
Mr B wrote:brackdan70 wrote:Mr B wrote:Halliburton got injured in game 2 and didn’t play in games 3 and 4. Once he went out the series was done. They were not the challenge that Dallas will be for them. Also Donovan Mitchell was out in their series and Jimmy Butler was out in their series. So Boston has yet to face a team with their best player (aside from game 1 against the Pacers which Boston barely won. The Celtics won’t have that luxury against Dallas.
Also how many 50 win teams have the Celtics faced in these playoffs? How many 50 win teams has Dallas faced?
Mitchell did play in 3 games, Tyrese played much of game 2 which was a blowout, but yeah this point has been made plenty. Cs didn’t face 100% healthy teams. We know. Cs had a key injury of their own to deal with.
You can’t compare losing a bench big to losing your star player. If the C’a had lost Tatum or Brown then that would be comparable.
CoP wrote:Bringing this portion from another thread because I think this could have a big effect on the series.CoP wrote:As for the Luka PnR, I think we may see a mixed strategy. Sometimes the primary defender will go under the screen in order to limit Luka's penetration into the paint. At other times, you'll see a blitz of Luka just to get the ball out of his hands entirely. At other times, you'll see Boston pre-switching so that their big can stay low with Lively/Gafford. At other times, you'll see a dig by the perimeter defender to try to slow his movement into the paint. You could also see a combination of these, for example a pre-switch to keep the big low in combination with a blitz.
Boston used some of these strategies against Indiana, when the Pacers were targeting Horford on switches. This led to Horford being the primary defender on Siakam on a lot fewer possessions in games 3 and 4 vs. games 1 and 2. Game 1: 33 possessions. Game 2: 28. Game 3: 18. Game 4: 13.
None of these strategies will work 100% of the time, but some of them may work better than others, and some may work better at certain times of the game vs. others. In end-of-game situations, for example, a blitz combined with tight single coverage of Kyrie may slow down their clutch offense.
Luka is a transcendent offensive player, and so you have to throw varied coverages against him, not to shut him down entirely because that's not possible, but to slow down his ability to completely control the possession beyond just shooting a contested stepback 3.
I was also thinking that Boston's PnR could and should vary depending on who's on the floor for the Mavs. If it's Gafford and they're running their typical 1-5 PnR, then a blitz to encourage a pass to Gafford at the FT line might be the best bet. That would force Gafford to make a decision with the ball, and he is not nearly as good at that as Lively, as we saw in the one game where Lively was out.
Should be a great aspect of the game to watch as the series goes on.
BrooklynDynasty wrote:Mavericks +6.5 is the biggest LOCK of the playoffs, bet the house on it. Boston comes out rusty and with a Porzingis unable to find his sea legs, while Dallas builds a 20 point lead and cruises to victory
BrooklynDynasty wrote:Mavericks +6.5 is the biggest LOCK of the playoffs, bet the house on it. Boston comes out rusty and with a Porzingis unable to find his sea legs, while Dallas builds a 20 point lead and cruises to victory
Special_Puppy wrote:Majority of ESPN experts think the Mavericks are favored. I can’t tell if people are just *really* leaning into the idea that “the team with the best player is favored” idea or if people are just *really* overthinking it https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/40279206/2024-nba-finals-predictions-celtics-mavericks-series-mvp
ThunderBolt wrote:I’m going to let some of you in on a little secret I learned on realgm. If you don’t like a thread, not only do you not have to comment but you don’t even have to open it and read it. You’re welcome.
Texas Chuck wrote:To repeat because sadly I have to, Celtics should be a clear favorite here.
but its not at all wild to me for someone to pick Dallas. Luka and Kyrie are that special of offensive players, they have been defending like crazy, and they just went through 3 of the top 4 Western teams on the road without all that much trouble.
No idea why this offends so many of you so much that some people think Dallas can win. But they absolutely can.
