Political Roundtable Part XXXII

[pancakes3]

This Trump guilty verdict will not impact the election IMO, the more dangerous cases for Trump are the Jan 6 and documents cases, and Trump is getting an assist from Judge Cannon and SCOTUS.

In my estimation, the most impactful case already came down - the Manhattan civil trial where he's on the hook for $400M and business death penalty in NY.

I think on paper, the Jan 6 case would carry the heftiest penalties, as it's the only one that is likely to carry jail time (I don't think the Mar a Lago case or the Stormy Daniels case will result in jail time) but that's also the toughest case to prove, and is fraught with all sorts of mitigating factors such as intervening actors, the Fani Willis distractions, a more sympathetic jury pool, likely post-election trial date, and a lengthier appeals process (I can see SCOTUS taking this on appeal). But even if Trump gets 5 years, and eligible for release after 2, I think he's still more devastated by Manhattan's civil penalties, provided it's upheld on appeal, due to it affecting his pocketbook, it having already been adjudicated, and it being a pretty black and white case (as opposed to RICO).

[dobrojim]

these righties whining about the verdict <sigh>

It's funny how few (any?) of them are denying that he did what he was accused and found guilty of.
They're just 'issed off he is being held accountable.

[pancakes3]

Vivek is capitalizing by saying "So what was he really guilty of? Paying for things out of his personal funds? You can't use campaign funds to buy a nice suit, which influences voters. But now you can't use personal funds too? You're damned if you do and damned if you don't? That's what Trump means by rigged system."

Except Trump's not using his personal funds, he's using BUSINESS FUNDS. it's BUSINESS FRAUD. treating company funds as his personal piggy bank is EXACTLY WHAT HE'S GUILTY OF. and Trump knew it was impermissible, which is why HE TRIED TO HIDE IT BY PAYING COHEN.

[Zonkerbl]

convicted felon says what?

[dobrojim]

Doing something I don’t normally do, watching
Golfy’s presser. Complete incoherence and fantasy.

Somehow I doubt his political advisers are happy the longer he talks.

[Pointgod]

Read on Twitter

[dobrojim]

New low for the gop, openly and enthusiastically calling for widespread
retribution because of Golfy’s conviction. Not surprised that they’ve
made no claims that he didn’t do the things he was convicted of doing.

[Wizardspride]

Read on Twitter

?t=DaJBBtF7A1cEzXQB5Sty0g&s=19

[Zonkerbl]

Read on Twitter

?t=DaJBBtF7A1cEzXQB5Sty0g&s=19

If you ask someone how much of their own money they would be willing to spend to save the Pandas, they'll say something stupid like "$19 billion" It's a stupid question to ask without it involving a real decision. If you ask someone how much they value their own life they'll say something similar. We don't know. Yet! Confront people with an actual decision that has real life consequences and suddenly their valuations become much more precise. If you look at how much people are willing to pay for safety features in automobiles, you learn that people are willing to spend about $1100 to reduce their risk of dying by 1 in a thousand. It's on the low end of such studies because you accept that dying in a fiery crash is one of the likely consequences of getting in a car. The valuations are higher in situations where you don't normally expect to die. Willingness to pay for not having carcinogens in drinking water, for example, is much higher.

Ask someone whether they would vote for someone who is a felon is a completely meaningless question when the person you are voting for has not been convicted of a felony. I interpret this poll as "April: Would you prefer marshmallow or chocolate syrup to erupt from your index fingers at will?" vs. "July: Would you vote for a convicted felon?" The answers to the April question are meaningless. The July numbers tell me there's a significant number of Republicans who might not vote for Trump this November.

I'm sure the right wing propaganda machine can handle it, but I'd much rather they spend Fox News bandwidth convincing Republicans not to abandon Trump than going on the attack against Biden.

[pancakes3]

The July numbers tell me there's a significant number of Republicans who might not vote for Trump this November.

Ok, that's the glass half full interpretation, because I was gonna say, the independent swing confirmed what we knew all along being that independents are just closet MAGA.

[dobrojim]

the thing that I pin my hopes on is that Golfy has never been in a position where
he could afford to lose (any) votes (at all).

[Zonkerbl]

the thing that I pin my hopes on is that Golfy has never been in a position where
he could afford to lose (any) votes (at all).

And the things is, the ride or die, vote for Golfy no matter what crimes he's committed, are hard core right winger types. How many of those are there in Wisconsin, Michigan, PA, AZ? I feel like, if anything, the folks who might hesitate to vote for a convicted felon are more likely to be located in purple states.

[Zonkerbl]

The July numbers tell me there's a significant number of Republicans who might not vote for Trump this November.

Ok, that's the glass half full interpretation, because I was gonna say, the independent swing confirmed what we knew all along being that independents are just closet MAGA.

I try not to think about independents, honestly, for precisely that reason. Independents gonna independ.

[montestewart]

Trump’s like Marion Barry on a national scale. Maybe someone will dredge up Trump supporter quotes about the disgrace of Barry being elected mayor again after Crackgate.

[dobrojim]

my fervent wish is that a significant number of voters will turn away from the crime-ing GOP
for their shameless and cowardly support of a whining criminal and pay attention to the fact
that his series of illegal acts have not nearly been processed by the criminal justice system,

Don't do the crime if you can't do the time.

[doclinkin]

I think the same people who voted for Trump as a protest vote will see his guilty verdicts as a badge of honor. I'm more concerned about young folks who on principle will not make the effort to vote due to Biden's 'too little too late or not at all' stances on Palestine. Even if the situation will be even more disastrous if he loses. I see the algorithms elevate this position in my social media feed, the 'don't vote for genocide' angle and figure that narrative is being juiced by the string pullers behind the scenes. Even while I agree with the sentiment, I am even more keenly aware that electing the wrong guy will be tossing road flares into the fireworks factory. Some people just want to watch it all burn then rebuild from scratch. And hell, it seems a reasonable position at times. But that way lies even more iniquity and evil.

[dobrojim]

Doc, the views of my own age 20 something adult kids confirm exactly what you say.
While they hate tRump they despise Biden as well. I think the place where they are
failing in their analysis is that one of these 2 flawed people are going to be POTUS
beginning in 2025.

[pancakes3]

i'm a thirty-something who has a very low opinion of Biden, and DNC in general. i'm very likely sitting out but i'm in a very blue district.

[dckingsfan]

I think that much of why 20s & 30s don't like Biden is valid and other parts where they are ignorant of what he has done.

Israel is really bad and he has been a bit weak on Ukraine. So, meh on foreign policy.

What he has done for the economy - pretty darn good. He tried on student loans, the best POTUS thus far on climate change and he is trying to go after monopolies (although in a limited way). Nice job on the border working with Mexico. Better than most countries on inflation (and would be killing it on inflation if not for housing which is a local issue).

I remember sitting out the Gore election (for much the same reason as pancakes). And we got Bush, the forever wars and his tax cuts which has done more to harm our balance sheet than any other "thing". And this is a huge limiting factor going forward. Add to that what Bush and then Trump did to the courts.

Sitting out the election (IMO) is like voting for Trump. At the same time, the "but Trump..." rings a bit hollow.

[dckingsfan]

Doc, the views of my own age 20 something adult kids confirm exactly what you say.
While they hate tRump they despise Biden as well. I think the place where they are
failing in their analysis is that one of these 2 flawed people are going to be POTUS
beginning in 2025.

I had a conversation with my kids on the same. They are now voting. But I had to be really patient and get through all of the emotions first before I could address the actual issues. There is no way that is going to happen in a larger scale - the Russian disinformation machine is just too good.