Post Mortem 2023-24

[JujitsuFlip]

Unfortunately all outcomes cannot be controlled even with careful collusion, but if we don't plan for the best outcome we will definitely get a lesser one.

But what is that best outcome in your opinion?

What are we doing with #20?

What are we doing with the MLE and when?

What are we doing if Mitchell doesn't extend or drags his feet?

What are we doing if Mitchell does extend and Garland asks out?

What are we doing with Allen?

When do we extend Mobley?

What is our match number for Okoro and Bates RFA?

Are we guaranteeing Merrill and CPJ or making them earn their spots in camp/early regular season?

Who are you hiring as the new head coach?

There are a lot of moving parts here...

Pay me $10M / year and I'll promise you an answer to all those questions....

Koby is in a much better position to constrain those questions than we are and I expect him to sort them out and decide whatever he thinks is the best path.

I will say as far as our pick goes, we need a player with plus length, that can hold their ground, and can shoot. Position matters less than simply achieving those 3 because a pick is an investment and we will eventually need everything.

If i had $10 million to give, i would lol

[KuruptedCav]

Presuming you're right, what you should be asking yourself is why isn't there a bigger swing in improvement when we put a better shooter on the floor in place of Isaac?

You might also ask why an undrafted player like Dean Wade looks so vital on the team.

Decent length, solid man defense, solid help defense, ability to knock down an occasional 3pter ... find an improved version of that and maybe we can ditch either of those players; but easier said than done apparently.

The answer is because Merrill struggled to get his shot off, Niang couldn't hit the broadside of a barn, and those two plus Garland created an irreparably bad defensive unit. Being unable to balance offense/defense in his rotations is a big reason JB is gone and I suspect one of the reasons Garland was just over it by the end.

Last year, the answer was because Cedi and a 100-year old, one-legged Danny Green were the alternatives.

Where I really struggle though is that I think Okoro's defense isn't really good enough to justify his offensive limitations. He's a really good POA defender on a guard, but if he's on a SF with size, he's basically passable. Both DJJ and Thybulle play taller than him. Maybe it's wingspan. Maybe they're just better at contesting shots.

The value add with him at SF against mportant matchups just isn't there. You can't really justify starting him in front of Strus, who the other team has to account for on the floor. Assuming one of Allen or Garland go out for a SF with size, I still don't see a path forward for him starting. So why would we pay him like one?

I've said this numerous times, but Isaac is a fundamental defender who will rarely standout but will consistently make things just a little harder on whoever he's asked to defend.

You just won't see this with your eyes, or even game to game. You will just see overtime that the best player on the other team is doing worse on average.

With Max you will see the effort and the hustle as well as everything else he contributes, but it just wasn't transformative for our core-4. Max was at his best with other units.

Maybe with better health and a new coach that will change, but for Bickerstaff? Isaac or Caris did better.

It’s not just wingspan but the width of his chest within that wingspan. 6’8” side to side is only translating to an 8’4.5” standing reach.

Okoro holds a strength advantage and has excellent lateral quickness which are highly effective as POA. He’s also difficult to back down and good in passing lanes. But, most players 6’7” and above are releasing the ball at > 7’7” and Pythagoras is not on Okoro’s side at a 53-58% arc.


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[toooskies]

Read on Twitter

Haven't listened yet, but if you're waiting for morsels of Dean Wade coverage, here you go.

[toooskies]

Also, some Mitchell interacting with the Cavs social media admins, if you're into tea leaf reading:

Read on Twitter

[JujitsuFlip]

Also, some Mitchell interacting with the Cavs social media admins, if you're into tea leaf reading:

Read on Twitter

Rich Paul is in shambles right now lol

[JonFromVA]

The answer is because Merrill struggled to get his shot off, Niang couldn't hit the broadside of a barn, and those two plus Garland created an irreparably bad defensive unit. Being unable to balance offense/defense in his rotations is a big reason JB is gone and I suspect one of the reasons Garland was just over it by the end.

Last year, the answer was because Cedi and a 100-year old, one-legged Danny Green were the alternatives.

Where I really struggle though is that I think Okoro's defense isn't really good enough to justify his offensive limitations. He's a really good POA defender on a guard, but if he's on a SF with size, he's basically passable. Both DJJ and Thybulle play taller than him. Maybe it's wingspan. Maybe they're just better at contesting shots.

The value add with him at SF against mportant matchups just isn't there. You can't really justify starting him in front of Strus, who the other team has to account for on the floor. Assuming one of Allen or Garland go out for a SF with size, I still don't see a path forward for him starting. So why would we pay him like one?

I've said this numerous times, but Isaac is a fundamental defender who will rarely standout but will consistently make things just a little harder on whoever he's asked to defend.

You just won't see this with your eyes, or even game to game. You will just see overtime that the best player on the other team is doing worse on average.

With Max you will see the effort and the hustle as well as everything else he contributes, but it just wasn't transformative for our core-4. Max was at his best with other units.

Maybe with better health and a new coach that will change, but for Bickerstaff? Isaac or Caris did better.

It’s not just wingspan but the width of his chest within that wingspan. 6’8” side to side is only translating to an 8’4.5” standing reach.

Okoro holds a strength advantage and has excellent lateral quickness which are highly effective as POA. He’s also difficult to back down and good in passing lanes. But, most players 6’7” and above are releasing the ball at > 7’7” and Pythagoras is not on Okoro’s side at a 53-58% arc.

Blocking jump shots is nice, but rare, and exploitable. Isaac is tall enough to put a hand in the shooter's face, that's fundamental / statistical defense. Holding your ground and beating offensive players to their spots is part of that too. Knowing everyone's tendencies is a big one - gained through watching so many game tapes. Recovering after getting beat is a skill.

I can find people complaining about Jrue Holiday's ability to defend star SF's too ... but even though he's older/slower and has even less to work with than Isaac in terms of wingspan and standing reach ... he's going to be guarding everyone in the finals.

Isaac is still just 23 ... if he keeps at it, he's going to continue to grow and learn as a defender and maybe his offense will come around under a coach who's willing to ask more of him systematically speaking.

[KuruptedCav]

I've said this numerous times, but Isaac is a fundamental defender who will rarely standout but will consistently make things just a little harder on whoever he's asked to defend.

You just won't see this with your eyes, or even game to game. You will just see overtime that the best player on the other team is doing worse on average.

With Max you will see the effort and the hustle as well as everything else he contributes, but it just wasn't transformative for our core-4. Max was at his best with other units.

Maybe with better health and a new coach that will change, but for Bickerstaff? Isaac or Caris did better.

It’s not just wingspan but the width of his chest within that wingspan. 6’8” side to side is only translating to an 8’4.5” standing reach.

Okoro holds a strength advantage and has excellent lateral quickness which are highly effective as POA. He’s also difficult to back down and good in passing lanes. But, most players 6’7” and above are releasing the ball at > 7’7” and Pythagoras is not on Okoro’s side at a 53-58% arc.

Blocking jump shots is nice, but rare, and exploitable. Isaac is tall enough to put a hand in the shooter's face, that's fundamental / statistical defense. Holding your ground and beating offensive players to their spots is part of that too. Knowing everyone's tendencies is a big one - gained through watching so many game tapes. Recovering after getting beat is a skill.

I can find people complaining about Jrue Holiday's ability to defend star SF's too ... but even though he's older/slower and has even less to work with than Isaac in terms of wingspan and standing reach ... he's going to be guarding everyone in the finals.

Isaac is still just 23 ... if he keeps at it, he's going to continue to grow and learn as a defender and maybe his offense will come around under a coach who's willing to ask more of him systematically speaking.

Sure, but he either has to get closer to the defender or leave his feet sooner than Matisse Thybulle to have a similar effect on the shot.


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[JonFromVA]

It’s not just wingspan but the width of his chest within that wingspan. 6’8” side to side is only translating to an 8’4.5” standing reach.

Okoro holds a strength advantage and has excellent lateral quickness which are highly effective as POA. He’s also difficult to back down and good in passing lanes. But, most players 6’7” and above are releasing the ball at > 7’7” and Pythagoras is not on Okoro’s side at a 53-58% arc.

Blocking jump shots is nice, but rare, and exploitable. Isaac is tall enough to put a hand in the shooter's face, that's fundamental / statistical defense. Holding your ground and beating offensive players to their spots is part of that too. Knowing everyone's tendencies is a big one - gained through watching so many game tapes. Recovering after getting beat is a skill.

I can find people complaining about Jrue Holiday's ability to defend star SF's too ... but even though he's older/slower and has even less to work with than Isaac in terms of wingspan and standing reach ... he's going to be guarding everyone in the finals.

Isaac is still just 23 ... if he keeps at it, he's going to continue to grow and learn as a defender and maybe his offense will come around under a coach who's willing to ask more of him systematically speaking.

Sure, but he either has to get closer to the defender or leave his feet sooner than Matisse Thybulle to have a similar effect on the shot.

For reference, Thybulle is 27, already earning $10.5M for this past season, and has a career TS% of 54.8%.

The Trailblazers had a defensive rating of 118.4 when he was on the floor and 119.0 when he was off or -0.5.

Isaac, otoh, hasn't had a TS% that low since his rookie season. The Cavs had a defensive rating of 113.5 when he was on the floor and 114.6 when he was off or -1.1.

Defense is a tricky thing to evaluate, but it would be a mistake to assume that Thybulle's ability to produce more blocks and steals necessarily makes him the better defender. Alas, stats like rebounds/blocks/steals drive the box score derived or informed defensive stats due to lack of anything better.

Really, the problem is what do we do if we let Isaac walk?

Anyone we'd love to have with the length, defense, shooting, and whatever else you may find deficient in Isaac is going to cost us a heckuva lot more than the MLE.

[KuruptedCav]

Blocking jump shots is nice, but rare, and exploitable. Isaac is tall enough to put a hand in the shooter's face, that's fundamental / statistical defense. Holding your ground and beating offensive players to their spots is part of that too. Knowing everyone's tendencies is a big one - gained through watching so many game tapes. Recovering after getting beat is a skill.

I can find people complaining about Jrue Holiday's ability to defend star SF's too ... but even though he's older/slower and has even less to work with than Isaac in terms of wingspan and standing reach ... he's going to be guarding everyone in the finals.

Isaac is still just 23 ... if he keeps at it, he's going to continue to grow and learn as a defender and maybe his offense will come around under a coach who's willing to ask more of him systematically speaking.

Sure, but he either has to get closer to the defender or leave his feet sooner than Matisse Thybulle to have a similar effect on the shot.

For reference, Thybulle is 27, already earning $10.5M for this past season, and has a career TS% of 54.8%.

The Trailblazers had a defensive rating of 118.4 when he was on the floor and 119.0 when he was off or -0.5.

Isaac, otoh, hasn't had a TS% that low since his rookie season. The Cavs had a defensive rating of 113.5 when he was on the floor and 114.6 when he was off or -1.1.

Defense is a tricky thing to evaluate, but it would be a mistake to assume that Thybulle's ability to produce more blocks and steals necessarily makes him the better defender. Alas, stats like rebounds/blocks/steals drive the box score derived or informed defensive stats due to lack of anything better.

Really, the problem is what do we do if we let Isaac walk?

Anyone we'd love to have with the length, defense, shooting, and whatever else you may find deficient in Isaac is going to cost us a heckuva lot more than the MLE.

I’m not commenting on price, potential, production, comparing their body of work, or anything else.

Only that if Isaac Okoro had a standing reach of 8’8” instead of 8’4.5” that he would be better able to defend taller wings and impact their line of sight from further away.

There are 52 players in this year’s draft as tall or taller than Issac. 50 of them reach higher than he does.

He drew the matchups because was was hurt and Nieng was ineffective, and you can’t put Strus on them.


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[toooskies]

Sure, but he either has to get closer to the defender or leave his feet sooner than Matisse Thybulle to have a similar effect on the shot.

For reference, Thybulle is 27, already earning $10.5M for this past season, and has a career TS% of 54.8%.

The Trailblazers had a defensive rating of 118.4 when he was on the floor and 119.0 when he was off or -0.5.

Isaac, otoh, hasn't had a TS% that low since his rookie season. The Cavs had a defensive rating of 113.5 when he was on the floor and 114.6 when he was off or -1.1.

Defense is a tricky thing to evaluate, but it would be a mistake to assume that Thybulle's ability to produce more blocks and steals necessarily makes him the better defender. Alas, stats like rebounds/blocks/steals drive the box score derived or informed defensive stats due to lack of anything better.

Really, the problem is what do we do if we let Isaac walk?

Anyone we'd love to have with the length, defense, shooting, and whatever else you may find deficient in Isaac is going to cost us a heckuva lot more than the MLE.

I’m not commenting on price, potential, production, comparing their body of work, or anything else.

Only that if Isaac Okoro had a standing reach of 8’8” instead of 8’4.5” that he would be better able to defend taller wings and impact their line of sight from further away.

There are 52 players in this year’s draft as tall or taller than Issac. 50 of them reach higher than he does.

He drew the matchups because was was hurt and Nieng was ineffective, and you can’t put Strus on them.


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A taller player doesn't necessarily play good defense. Okoro might not be as tall a bunch of draftees but he had the weight of a power forward coming out of school, which means he can do a better job of not letting the other player get to their spots on the floor where they've practiced their shots over and over again. PJ Tucker was shorter than Okoro and yet was always giving LeBron and Durant problems on the ball. Lu Dort's like that too. It's not all about length.

Strus did an amazing job on Wagner, Tatum, and Banchero, holding them all under 45% from the field and 32% from three. Because he played them tough and didn't let them get to their spots.

Okoro did alright on them-- less good against Banchero, but I don't think any wing is guarding Banchero effectively. But Okoro's most successful matchup in the playoffs was against Cole Anthony.

(Jaylen Brown pretty reliably cooked everybody on the Cavs.)

[KuruptedCav]

For reference, Thybulle is 27, already earning $10.5M for this past season, and has a career TS% of 54.8%.

The Trailblazers had a defensive rating of 118.4 when he was on the floor and 119.0 when he was off or -0.5.

Isaac, otoh, hasn't had a TS% that low since his rookie season. The Cavs had a defensive rating of 113.5 when he was on the floor and 114.6 when he was off or -1.1.

Defense is a tricky thing to evaluate, but it would be a mistake to assume that Thybulle's ability to produce more blocks and steals necessarily makes him the better defender. Alas, stats like rebounds/blocks/steals drive the box score derived or informed defensive stats due to lack of anything better.

Really, the problem is what do we do if we let Isaac walk?

Anyone we'd love to have with the length, defense, shooting, and whatever else you may find deficient in Isaac is going to cost us a heckuva lot more than the MLE.

I’m not commenting on price, potential, production, comparing their body of work, or anything else.

Only that if Isaac Okoro had a standing reach of 8’8” instead of 8’4.5” that he would be better able to defend taller wings and impact their line of sight from further away.

There are 52 players in this year’s draft as tall or taller than Issac. 50 of them reach higher than he does.

He drew the matchups because was was hurt and Nieng was ineffective, and you can’t put Strus on them.


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A taller player doesn't necessarily play good defense. Okoro might not be as tall a bunch of draftees but he had the weight of a power forward coming out of school, which means he can do a better job of not letting the other player get to their spots on the floor where they've practiced their shots over and over again. PJ Tucker was shorter than Okoro and yet was always giving LeBron and Durant problems on the ball. Lu Dort's like that too. It's not all about length.

Strus did an amazing job on Wagner, Tatum, and Banchero, holding them all under 45% from the field and 32% from three. Because he played them tough and didn't let them get to their spots.

Okoro did alright on them-- less good against Banchero, but I don't think any wing is guarding Banchero effectively. But Okoro's most successful matchup in the playoffs was against Cole Anthony.

(Jaylen Brown pretty reliably cooked everybody on the Cavs.)

No one is arguing that a taller player inherently plays better defense.

Do you think PJ Tucker would have been less effective against Lebron if he were 6’8” and 260lbs instead of 6’5” and 245lbs?

Tucker made them go over him, and that’s what Okoro does. But let’s not pretend that Durant didn’t have a 30.6ppg career average when playing Tucker’s teams just because they played 59 minutes across a 7 game series… or that Lebron wasn’t at 27.6ppg

Lu Dort is a great example of a player who plays tighter on bigger players and leaves his feet early. And just like Okoro and Tucker… he fouls a heck of a lot.


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[JonFromVA]

Sure, but he either has to get closer to the defender or leave his feet sooner than Matisse Thybulle to have a similar effect on the shot.

For reference, Thybulle is 27, already earning $10.5M for this past season, and has a career TS% of 54.8%.

The Trailblazers had a defensive rating of 118.4 when he was on the floor and 119.0 when he was off or -0.5.

Isaac, otoh, hasn't had a TS% that low since his rookie season. The Cavs had a defensive rating of 113.5 when he was on the floor and 114.6 when he was off or -1.1.

Defense is a tricky thing to evaluate, but it would be a mistake to assume that Thybulle's ability to produce more blocks and steals necessarily makes him the better defender. Alas, stats like rebounds/blocks/steals drive the box score derived or informed defensive stats due to lack of anything better.

Really, the problem is what do we do if we let Isaac walk?

Anyone we'd love to have with the length, defense, shooting, and whatever else you may find deficient in Isaac is going to cost us a heckuva lot more than the MLE.

I’m not commenting on price, potential, production, comparing their body of work, or anything else.

Only that if Isaac Okoro had a standing reach of 8’8” instead of 8’4.5” that he would be better able to defend taller wings and impact their line of sight from further away.

There are 52 players in this year’s draft as tall or taller than Issac. 50 of them reach higher than he does.

He drew the matchups because was was hurt and Nieng was ineffective, and you can’t put Strus on them.

And fingers crossed we draft someone with plus length and shooting, but expecting them to step-in and guard the best offensive wing/guard on the other team is a heavy ask of a rookie.

You forgot to mention someone, was it Dean? It'd be cool if we got a full healthy season from Dean. I'd love to see what he could do, but we only get glimpses and it's possible his knees are just shot.

If we re-work our starting lineup and improve our overall defensive switch-ability, I could see Isaac becoming perhaps even a hindrance to the team; but the way we are now he has a role that we may find difficult to fill if we let him walk.

[JujitsuFlip]

I'm cool with Okoro on the QO but nothing more.

I know no one asked my 2 cents but had to chime in. We have a fun summer ahead of us fellas!

[mcfly1204]

I'm cool with Okoro on the QO but nothing more.

I know no one asked my 2 cents but had to chime in. We have a fun summer ahead of us fellas!

Might as well pack his bags now then, or are you matching the offers he will get?

[JujitsuFlip]

I'm cool with Okoro on the QO but nothing more.

I know no one asked my 2 cents but had to chime in. We have a fun summer ahead of us fellas!

Might as well pack his bags now then, or are you matching the offers he will get?

Idk that he will have a robust market, tbh. I think he plays a very specific role that I'm not positive every team needs or is looking for, at least not at a price point higher than $12.9 million or w.e the QO is. Especially for a minimum of 3 years.

I think a team would specifically have to want Okoro the player/person bc idk that he fits an archetype for today's NBA, given his limitations on both sides of the floor.

[mcfly1204]

I'm cool with Okoro on the QO but nothing more.

I know no one asked my 2 cents but had to chime in. We have a fun summer ahead of us fellas!

Might as well pack his bags now then, or are you matching the offers he will get?

Idk that he will have a robust market, tbh. I think he plays a very specific role that I'm not positive every team needs or is looking for, at least not at a price point higher than $12.9 million or w.e the QO is. Especially for a minimum of 3 years.

I think a team would specifically have to want Okoro the player/person bc idk that he fits an archetype for today's NBA, given his limitations on both sides of the floor.

We're talking about a 23 year old wing defender who just shot 39% from 3. I am pretty certain there will be a market for Okoro, just on continued upside alone.

[ijspeelman]

Might as well pack his bags now then, or are you matching the offers he will get?

Idk that he will have a robust market, tbh. I think he plays a very specific role that I'm not positive every team needs or is looking for, at least not at a price point higher than $12.9 million or w.e the QO is. Especially for a minimum of 3 years.

I think a team would specifically have to want Okoro the player/person bc idk that he fits an archetype for today's NBA, given his limitations on both sides of the floor.

We're talking about a 23 year old wing defender who just shot 39% from 3. I am pretty certain there will be a market for Okoro, just on continued upside alone.

I think rival GMs will continue to look at how he's guarded and the volume he shoots. Although, I do think he has made a concerted effort to shoot more threes (especially some with some movement), however the rate stats only show marginal volume increase since last year.

He's young, but shouldn't fetch much more than PJ Tucker has (adjusted for the cap).

[toooskies]

Idk that he will have a robust market, tbh. I think he plays a very specific role that I'm not positive every team needs or is looking for, at least not at a price point higher than $12.9 million or w.e the QO is. Especially for a minimum of 3 years.

I think a team would specifically have to want Okoro the player/person bc idk that he fits an archetype for today's NBA, given his limitations on both sides of the floor.

We're talking about a 23 year old wing defender who just shot 39% from 3. I am pretty certain there will be a market for Okoro, just on continued upside alone.

I think rival GMs will continue to look at how he's guarded and the volume he shoots. Although, I do think he has made a concerted effort to shoot more threes (especially some with some movement), however the rate stats only show marginal volume increase since last year.

He's young, but shouldn't fetch much more than PJ Tucker has (adjusted for the cap).

Okoro's young AND he hasn't gotten development reps on offense. I think he could do more than he does if Detroit or Utah want to give him those reps.

[JonFromVA]

Well, if we didn't have luxury tax considerations, I think this would be very straight forward. We'd try to keep his value as a team asset either as a player on the team at a reasonable price, or as a trade chip to any of the team's who were interested in paying him more than we thought he was worth.

Basically what happened with PJ Washington (who's 3pt shooting already took a drop .vs. the TWolves, and tbd .vs. the Celts)

[mcfly1204]

Well, if we didn't have luxury tax considerations, I think this would be very straight forward. We'd try to keep his value as a team asset either as a player on the team at a reasonable price, or as a trade chip to any of the team's who were interested in paying him more than we thought he was worth.

Basically what happened with PJ Washington (who's 3pt shooting already took a drop .vs. the TWolves, and tbd .vs. the Celts)

As much as some people want to harp on missteps by the front office, not signing Okoro to a team-friendly extension when they had the chance should be talked about more. I don't recall reading anything about offers made/offers turned down. Okoro is not a world-beater, but if we lose him in free agency, we are one Dean Wade injury away from LeVert being our best perimeter defender.