2024 NBA Draft Thread

[juanc]

Call me crazy but I would take Nikola Djurišić in the lottery this year. I just think that his game translates well in the NBA, I am also confident about his shot.

[shangrila]

If he translates, he'll be closer to an superstar. If he doesn't. He'll be a crappy backup combo guard.

So you think he's boom or bust?

His, his production is outsized in BPM (an ersatz estimator of RAPM, which is an attempt at estimating adjusted plus minus). It is known that BPM is heavily biased for big men. Reed's production is only beaten by freshman Harden. All other players above him are bigs with most of them worthy of #1 picks, Zions, Davis, Beasley, Love, Chet, KAT, Mobley.

Add this on top of his shooting signals in the 100 percentile (not 99), far exceeding Curry. Reed is an outlier among outliers. If he can adjust to NBA speed, athleticism, there is no reason to think he cannot succeed. Lastly let's not forget that Reed is considered one of the highest basketball IQ players in this draft; smarter players adjust. Dumber ones like Ayton, Wiseman perish.

I'm not arguing against him as a prospect, I just don't understand how he can have better potential to be an All star vs a semi star.

As you say he looks like he's got an incredible floor so I can him at worst as a role player. I can also see him a level above that in a Kyle Lowry mould (which is what I'd put as a semi-star) and then with a chance for a poor man's Curry-esque star outcome.

But that should be a gradual decrease in odds from role player to star, whereas you seem to have him as either role player or all star with a lower chance of the middle ground. That kind of projected outcomes makes more sense to me with the athletic guys. I don't have an example in this draft but maybe an Anthony Edwards, where there wasn't a chance of him being just a solid starter. He was either going to put it together and become a star or he wasn't and he'd be a rotation piece at best. Anthony Randolph fits this too if you want to go back further (and a better example of the bad outcome of this scenario)

[babyjax13]

Watched a ton of Chomche (almost all the film that is available), now I really don't get it and I already didn't before. He has a terrible shot but shoots a lot (TONS of airballs, even from 5 feet), he is indecisive, he has really poor decisionmaking, he can't dribble, he can't finish around the rim, he is a walking missed dunk + layup. He throws some nice passes but more frequently stands there trying to figure out what is happening on the court. He gets the ball stripped all the time, etc. etc. I do think when he is not under duress he is okay (sometimes) at keeping the ball moving unless he decides to fart up a jumper, but not only do I not see a first round pick, I don't see a gleague player - much less an NBA player. I think he will continue to be a mediocre player in the BAL (which is bad right now but improving pretty fast, I've actually had fun watching some of their games) for a few years before moving up to a European League, Australia, or China if his skill level improves (which I assume it will).

What you are betting on is a guy who hasn't learned to use his body and that this will actually happen. Maybe it will, but it's a very outside chance. I remember watching Coboclo and he was way more polished as a skinny kid from Brazil than Chomche is.

[babyjax13]

Name the 5 guys you think are most likely to be All Star caliber players from this draft, in order.

Alexandre Sarr
Kyshawn George
Nikola Topic
Tyler Smith
Ron Holland

[JustBuzzin]

Name the 5 guys you think are most likely to be All Star caliber players from this draft, in order.

Alexandre Sarr
Kyshawn George
Nikola Topic
Tyler Smith
Ron Holland

Kyshawn George fan stand up!

I'm high on that kid as well.

[babyjax13]

Name the 5 guys you think are most likely to be All Star caliber players from this draft, in order.

Alexandre Sarr
Kyshawn George
Nikola Topic
Tyler Smith
Ron Holland

Kyshawn George fan stand up!

I'm high on that kid as well.

I think he's marginally less athletic than Cody Williams (who I don't hate) with a worse (but not terrible) body (I think he'll be a below-average athlete with good length and height) but a much higher skill level and an elite shot in college (that I think will be solidly above average in the NBA). Basically, I see someone who can be Joe Ingles-esque, with some upside to be more (e.g., I think George has a nice stepback jumper and flashes the ability to be a frustrating guy like Joe Johnson or Khris Middleton if EVERYTHING goes right). I'd love the Jazz to draft him at 10 and I have him 2nd on my big board (the above is just the top 5 of my big board).

I may move Rissacher up a bit, I'm trying to decide how good I think the shot is. The long season at such a young age I think depressed his shooting numbers a bit, and I think that's why we have seen him rise.

[RyugaFan]

What's Tyler Smith's role in the league?

[MalonesElbows]

Call me crazy but I would take Nikola Djurišić in the lottery this year. I just think that his game translates well in the NBA, I am also confident about his shot.

I don't think you could be called crazy for taking anyone at any point in this crap shoot of a draft.

[babyjax13]

What's Tyler Smith's role in the league?

An athletic 4 who can shoot, rim run, run in transition, and has some (limited) self-creation potential. Good at getting putbacks on offensive rebounds. Defensively he's a bit of a mess, but his development has been pretty fast so I feel like with his physical tools he can become passable. I think he's a better prospect than PJ Washington, but it isn't the worst comp (Smith is bigger).

[SelfishPlayer]

Kyshawn George getting drafted in the first round will be the first time I can recall a freshman role player getting drafted that high. He does things in college that role players do in the NBA because they are restricted from doing more and typically displayed a greater variety of ability at some point in the past. Kyshawn George was literally a role player in college and didn't produce very much. He shot the magic 40% from three, and passes the ball well off the dribble, but it's scary projecting a 7.6 ppg freshman as a first round pick. This used to be reserved for the international guys relegated to bench roles due to veterans taking priority. The University of Miami doesn't have a team filled with future professional basketball players.

[babyjax13]

Kyshawn George getting drafted in the first round will be the first time I can recall a freshman role player getting drafted that high. He does things in college that role players do in the NBA because they are restricted from doing more and typically displayed a greater variety of ability at some point in the past. Kyshawn George was literally a role player in college and didn't produce very much. He shot the magic 40% from three, and passes the ball well off the dribble, but it's scary projecting a 7.6 ppg freshman as a first round pick. This used to be reserved for the international guys relegated to bench roles due to veterans taking priority. The University of Miami doesn't have a team filled with future professional basketball players.

He emerged into a starting role halfway through the season and in that role put up similar stats to Cody Williams.

16 games as a starter:
10p 4r 3a 1s (29 mins) 42/41/79 shooting on 5.8 attempted 3s per game
Season: 58% TS

Williams 18 games as a starter:
14p 3r 2a 2s (31 minutes) 59/46/71 shooting on 1.8 attempted 3s per game
Season: 62% TS

Williams has an advantage in scoring efficiency and volume + FTr, but does not score like an NBA wing (imo, he's a power forward, reminds me a lot of Tim Thomas)

George has an advantage in 3pt attempt rate, is a better passer AND rebounder, and is a much better ball handler.

Yes, he was a bench player to start the season behind Wooga Poplar and Matthew Cleveland who are borderline NBA prospects. Miami also had Norchad Omier and Nijel Pack who were ball-dominant but excellent college players. TBH both guys were in a very similar spot on their college teams because both had lots of established talent, and when George became a starter due to Poplar's injuries he performed similarly to Williams. I think it is debatable which profile is more promising, so I would resort to the eye test which *for me* says George is a more promising prospect.

[SelfishPlayer]

Kyshawn George getting drafted in the first round will be the first time I can recall a freshman role player getting drafted that high. He does things in college that role players do in the NBA because they are restricted from doing more and typically displayed a greater variety of ability at some point in the past. Kyshawn George was literally a role player in college and didn't produce very much. He shot the magic 40% from three, and passes the ball well off the dribble, but it's scary projecting a 7.6 ppg freshman as a first round pick. This used to be reserved for the international guys relegated to bench roles due to veterans taking priority. The University of Miami doesn't have a team filled with future professional basketball players.

He emerged into a starting role halfway through the season and in that role put up similar stats to Cody Williams.

16 games as a starter:
10p 4r 3a 1s (29 mins) 42/41/79 shooting on 5.8 attempted 3s per game
Season: 58% TS

Williams 18 games as a starter:
14p 3r 2a 2s (31 minutes) 59/46/71 shooting on 1.8 attempted 3s per game
Season: 62% TS

Williams has an advantage in scoring efficiency and volume + FTr, but does not score like an NBA wing (imo, he's a power forward, reminds me a lot of Tim Thomas)

George has an advantage in 3pt attempt rate, is a better passer AND rebounder, and is a much better ball handler.

Yes, he was a bench player to start the season behind Wooga Poplar and Matthew Cleveland who are borderline NBA prospects. Miami also had Norchad Omier and Nijel Pack who were ball-dominant but excellent college players. TBH both guys were in a very similar spot on their college teams because both had lots of established talent, and when George became a starter due to Poplar's injuries he performed similarly to Williams. I think it is debatable which profile is more promising, so I would resort to the eye test which *for me* says George is a more promising prospect.

Cody Williams played on a team with another two guys that are projected to get drafted in the first round. They really weren't in similar situations at all.

[babyjax13]

Kyshawn George getting drafted in the first round will be the first time I can recall a freshman role player getting drafted that high. He does things in college that role players do in the NBA because they are restricted from doing more and typically displayed a greater variety of ability at some point in the past. Kyshawn George was literally a role player in college and didn't produce very much. He shot the magic 40% from three, and passes the ball well off the dribble, but it's scary projecting a 7.6 ppg freshman as a first round pick. This used to be reserved for the international guys relegated to bench roles due to veterans taking priority. The University of Miami doesn't have a team filled with future professional basketball players.

He emerged into a starting role halfway through the season and in that role put up similar stats to Cody Williams.

16 games as a starter:
10p 4r 3a 1s (29 mins) 42/41/79 shooting on 5.8 attempted 3s per game
Season: 58% TS

Williams 18 games as a starter:
14p 3r 2a 2s (31 minutes) 59/46/71 shooting on 1.8 attempted 3s per game
Season: 62% TS

Williams has an advantage in scoring efficiency and volume + FTr, but does not score like an NBA wing (imo, he's a power forward, reminds me a lot of Tim Thomas)

George has an advantage in 3pt attempt rate, is a better passer AND rebounder, and is a much better ball handler.

Yes, he was a bench player to start the season behind Wooga Poplar and Matthew Cleveland who are borderline NBA prospects. Miami also had Norchad Omier and Nijel Pack who were ball-dominant but excellent college players. TBH both guys were in a very similar spot on their college teams because both had lots of established talent, and when George became a starter due to Poplar's injuries he performed similarly to Williams. I think it is debatable which profile is more promising, so I would resort to the eye test which *for me* says George is a more promising prospect.

Cody Williams played on a team with another two guys that are projected to get drafted in the first round. They really weren't in similar situations at all.

Lots of outlets had Wooga Poplar in the 1st round during the beginning of the season. Cleveland is an NBA prospect who might get drafted, Pack and Omier are really good college players. George came in as a raw prospect and earned a role on a very good college team with a ton of depth. Not only did he earn a role, he was arguably the best player on the team once he got minutes. I realize that Colorado had da Silva who is unquestionably better than anyone else on Miami's roster and they also had KJ Simpson who is also better than Pack, but Miami had a lot of talent and depth and for a college team matches up pretty well with Colorado even if not all their guys are the same caliber NBA prospect as Colorado's top guys. If you don't think those are similar situations, fine, but *I think* that's a misunderstanding of the college basketball landscape where most teams don't have more than 1 NBA prospect and both Miami and Colorado had 3 (and this is just a healthy disagreement, not me trying to be an ass).

Without injuries, Miami had the talent to be a tournament team.

[RyugaFan]

What's Tyler Smith's role in the league?

An athletic 4 who can shoot, rim run, run in transition, and has some (limited) self-creation potential. Good at getting putbacks on offensive rebounds. Defensively he's a bit of a mess, but his development has been pretty fast so I feel like with his physical tools he can become passable. I think he's a better prospect than PJ Washington, but it isn't the worst comp (Smith is bigger).

I don't think he's quick enough or has good enough ball skills to play the 4. If I'm drafting a role player and they're a tweener/don't have a defined role I'm not taking them top 20.

[RyugaFan]

Kyshawn George getting drafted in the first round will be the first time I can recall a freshman role player getting drafted that high. He does things in college that role players do in the NBA because they are restricted from doing more and typically displayed a greater variety of ability at some point in the past. Kyshawn George was literally a role player in college and didn't produce very much. He shot the magic 40% from three, and passes the ball well off the dribble, but it's scary projecting a 7.6 ppg freshman as a first round pick. This used to be reserved for the international guys relegated to bench roles due to veterans taking priority. The University of Miami doesn't have a team filled with future professional basketball players.

Ironically I think you can make a statistically based argument for Kyshawn George. Freshman/Sophomores with his size and shooting production have a really good hit rate in the NBA. Not to mention guys with his size + shooting + Ast%

[SelfishPlayer]

Kyshawn George getting drafted in the first round will be the first time I can recall a freshman role player getting drafted that high. He does things in college that role players do in the NBA because they are restricted from doing more and typically displayed a greater variety of ability at some point in the past. Kyshawn George was literally a role player in college and didn't produce very much. He shot the magic 40% from three, and passes the ball well off the dribble, but it's scary projecting a 7.6 ppg freshman as a first round pick. This used to be reserved for the international guys relegated to bench roles due to veterans taking priority. The University of Miami doesn't have a team filled with future professional basketball players.

Ironically I think you can make a statistically based argument for Kyshawn George. Freshman/Sophomores with his size and shooting production have a really good hit rate in the NBA. Not to mention guys with his size + shooting + Ast%

He shot 40% from three, but it's not as if he shot them at high volumn and also was elite at the FT line. So much of his perceived first round value is based upon that magic 40% mark. If he simply shot 38% from 3 but averaged four more PPG I doubt people would be as high on him as they are now. I do like that he sees the floor well and can surely get the ball into the hands of the more talented players in the NBA. He has really good length for the perimeter but he lacks vertical explosion. He appears to never attack the rim in the halfcourt.

[babyjax13]

Kyshawn George getting drafted in the first round will be the first time I can recall a freshman role player getting drafted that high. He does things in college that role players do in the NBA because they are restricted from doing more and typically displayed a greater variety of ability at some point in the past. Kyshawn George was literally a role player in college and didn't produce very much. He shot the magic 40% from three, and passes the ball well off the dribble, but it's scary projecting a 7.6 ppg freshman as a first round pick. This used to be reserved for the international guys relegated to bench roles due to veterans taking priority. The University of Miami doesn't have a team filled with future professional basketball players.

Ironically I think you can make a statistically based argument for Kyshawn George. Freshman/Sophomores with his size and shooting production have a really good hit rate in the NBA. Not to mention guys with his size + shooting + Ast%

He shot 40% from three, but it's not as if he shot them at high volumn and also was elite at the FT line. So much of his perceived first round value is based upon that magic 40% mark. If he simply shot 38% from 3 but averaged four more PPG I doubt people would be as high on him as they are now. I do like that he sees the floor well and can surely get the ball into the hands of the more talented players in the NBA. He has really good length for the perimeter but he lacks vertical explosion. He appears to never attack the rim in the halfcourt.

He shot 5.8 per game in 16 games as a starter. No arguments on the lack of athleticism. I do think NBA training will really help, but I'm not arguing that he will ever be elite or even above average.

[SelfishPlayer]

Ironically I think you can make a statistically based argument for Kyshawn George. Freshman/Sophomores with his size and shooting production have a really good hit rate in the NBA. Not to mention guys with his size + shooting + Ast%

He shot 40% from three, but it's not as if he shot them at high volumn and also was elite at the FT line. So much of his perceived first round value is based upon that magic 40% mark. If he simply shot 38% from 3 but averaged four more PPG I doubt people would be as high on him as they are now. I do like that he sees the floor well and can surely get the ball into the hands of the more talented players in the NBA. He has really good length for the perimeter but he lacks vertical explosion. He appears to never attack the rim in the halfcourt.

He shot 5.8 per game in 16 games as a starter. No arguments on the lack of athleticism. I do think NBA training will really help, but I'm not arguing that he will ever be elite or even above average.

I don't think anyone is asserting how much of a lock NBA player or bust he will be. It's the first round value I am questioning. I think that shooters are getting better so we will all learn how to value freshman role player 40% three point shooters with marginal athleticism and good size moving forward.

[azcatz11]

Name the 5 guys you think are most likely to be All Star caliber players from this draft, in order.

Alexandre Sarr
Kyshawn George
Nikola Topic
Tyler Smith
Ron Holland

Kyshawn George fan stand up!

I'm high on that kid as well.

Babyjax was the first person to tell me about George...I honestly had no idea he was even a prospect until the media kept hyping him up.

I'm telling ya'll this is a Cam Reddish situation. Looks great on paper but the kid is a non impact player. I bet he goes top 10 in this draft and I wouldn't be surprised if he's out of the league within 4 years.

[babyjax13]

Alexandre Sarr
Kyshawn George
Nikola Topic
Tyler Smith
Ron Holland

Kyshawn George fan stand up!

I'm high on that kid as well.

Babyjax was the first person to tell me about George...I honestly had no idea he was even a prospect until the media kept hyping him up.

I'm telling ya'll this is a Cam Reddish situation. Looks great on paper but the kid is a non impact player. I bet he goes top 10 in this draft and I wouldn't be surprised if he's out of the league within 4 years.

Might be. To be fair were the draft not as thin as it is I wouldn't normally have him as high as I do. In most drafts I think he'd be like 8-15 on my board? Maybe even a bit lower since he was not a huge producer, but I do like what I see and think that he was good at things he's supposed to be good at, unlike Cam who was billed as a shooter and just wasn't. My main comp for George is Joe Ingles, who was a very good player but certainly just a very good roleplayer.