2024 Draft Thread - Part II

[doclinkin]

Makes me question myself. I have had a history of falling for these guys that fall into the “high effort high motor” and “he’s just a winner and makes winning plays”, defensive intensity, “baller”, but have offensive shortcomings or aren’t good shooters category of player types... guys like Davion Mitchell & Isaac Okoro, and I always convince myself the shot will come around and improve. But then it doesn’t.

Look, me too. LOL. I didn't fall for Johnny Davis but otherwise yeah, effort and winning mindset will sway me.

Still:

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=stephon-castle--isaac-okoro

Maybe it is damning with faint praise to say Castle is a better prospect than Isaac Okoro.

Castle 6'9" wingspan, 8'6" standing reach
Okoro 6’8.5' wingspan, 8’4.5 standing reach

Slightly bigger. In college Okoro was tough but guarded 2-4 at best. This year Castle was the stopper against PGs, picking up the opponent's best player from end to end, defending bigs on a switch when Clingan chased outside. This is the aspect that makes Castle an outlier, few big guards can keep up with the smaller quicker PGs as well as the best outside scorers. Okoro is small for a SF, where he is played. Castle is large for a PG, the position he defends.

That said you might reexamine your take on Okoro:
College: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/isaac-okoro-1.html
NBA: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/okorois01.html

From shooting .286 from NCAA three, to nearly 40% from NBA range. That shot has definitely begin to come around. That work ethic has his 3FG% steadily improving every year. Maybe not worth a #2 pick, but its' a good trend for a 23 year old player, especially if he can increase the volume and keep the % steady. If NBA peak is at age 26-27 he is showing signs of turning into a damned good player.

If Castle could get to .391% from 3 on work ethic and focus, I'd damn sure take that. A guy who can frustrate wings 1-4 is the rare part. The rest is raw potential: playmaking skills (showed in HS) and shooting (flashed at the combine in motion shooting drills, and big shots in the Tourney) are what you are hoping for.

There are no perfect players in this draft. You are looking for guys with at least one outlier skill or physical feature, and hoping to build the rest. Otherwise you take Reed Sheppard, whose only displayed flaw so far is his size. Fair strategy. Select a complete player and hope it translates. But this front office prefers to take the bigger guy at a position, and build the rest, hoping you can grow into that hidden upside. So. I suppose the front office philosophy agrees with you (and Tommy Sheppard really) by selecting for work ethic and IQ. EXCEPT that it has to be paired with some outlier trait in length or athleticism or the like.

[Ed Wood]

Okoro has underperformed his draft position because his offensive game hasn't come together as much as that draft spot was projecting/hoping it would, but he has been a legitimately excellent defensive player and so a net asset on the court (I think a lot of assessments/metrics would hold that he's been better defensively than Deni, which is saying something). I do think I am pretty good at not over-crediting prospects for team success at their pre-NBA level of play (maybe I even overcompensate in being a little suspicious of players who are really celebrated who had high visibility NCAA tournament runs or something similar).

[doclinkin]

Bah. They took it down. Draftexpress used to have a table with the average measurements by position for all years.
Now it defaults to 2017 only but:

https://www.draftexpress.com/average-measurements-by-position/2017/NBA+Draft+Combine/all/60/

Average lane agility for PG (drafted): 10.8 sec.
Castle lane agility: 10.9

Funny, the draft always happens when I am up in the mountains with family and no cell reception or internet. I think this is the first year it will happen when I get back. Still, it will probably be good to take next week off. I just caught myself watching highlights of Quinten Post. "True 7 footer, hitting 40% from 3. International passport, draft and stash?..."

[DCZards]

Man...watching, long lean players like Brown, Holiday and White dominate an NBA finals game with their defense...and seeing an elite offensive player like Irving struggle against that kind of defensive intensity...makes me want Stephon Castle even more.

[closg00]

Man...watching, long lean players like Brown, Holiday and White dominate an NBA finals game with their defense...and seeing an elite offensive player like Irving struggle against that kind of defensive intensity...makes me want Stephon Castle even more.

Great FO
Great Coach
Great teamwork, no one guy is trying win on his own. Castle would fit right in on this Celtic team, but someone’s gotta score the ball too.

[machu46]

I'm not sure what constitutes as "elite handle" nowadays and why it's necessary. Players like Jamal Crawford and Skip to my Lou had "elite handles", but they weren't very good. It's a nice to have if you're game is predicated on being a shoot first point guard. I'm fine with "average" handles--John Stockton, Mark Price, Steve Nash. As long as you're not getting plucked and you can use angles to get to the rim, I'm fine with average handles. I don't need god-shamgod NYC pickup game handles. Give me boring and safe.

I disagree with the notion that someone like Nash had average handles; I think his approach to the game was just so different from guys like Crawford, Iverson, etc. Those guys were trying to break ankles vs. Nash just trying to get to his spots to set up teammates. To your point, as long as you can get to the spot you want to get to, that's really all you need. I would say with guys like Sheppard and Topic for example, it's not a guarantee they can do that in the NBA. Having said that, Sheppard in particular is good enough at the other stuff that I'd take the chance with him. I'm not sure what order I'd take them in, but I think the guys in my personal top 5 would probably be Sheppard, Risacher, Holland, Devin Carter, and probably Sarr.

[machu46]

https://player.fm/series/upside-swings-nba-draft-podcast/scouting-upside-wings-stephon-castle-johnny-furphy-bronny-james-kyshawn-george-jakobe-walter-cam-christie


Man listening to these guys, not high at all on Castle. Basically see him as a late 2nd rounder.


Makes me question myself. I have had a history of falling for these guys that fall into the “high effort high motor” and “he’s just a winner and makes winning plays”, defensive intensity, “baller”, but have offensive shortcomings or aren’t good shooters category of player types... guys like Davion Mitchell & Isaac Okoro, and I always convince myself the shot will come around and improve. But then it doesn’t.

I don't like Castle in the top 5, but I still like him enough as a lottery guy. I think one of my hang-ups with him is I'm not entirely sold on him as the elite defensive prospect that others are (and share many of the offensive questions that others have). I noticed this with Andre Jackson last year too; it seems like Hurley coaches these guys to play with their hands and knees on defense way too much; a lot of blocking fouls that go uncalled in college but tend to get called in the NBA (and that was certainly true of Andre in his rookie season as he averaged nearly 6 fouls per 36 minutes). They also simply weren't very disruptive in terms of creating turnovers, deflections, etc. Not the most important part of defense but I do think it's a part of making the leap from merely solid defender to an All-Defense type. All that said, I think Castle projects as a solid to pretty good defender and a solid prospect overall.

[nate33]

https://player.fm/series/upside-swings-nba-draft-podcast/scouting-upside-wings-stephon-castle-johnny-furphy-bronny-james-kyshawn-george-jakobe-walter-cam-christie


Man listening to these guys, not high at all on Castle. Basically see him as a late 2nd rounder.


Makes me question myself. I have had a history of falling for these guys that fall into the “high effort high motor” and “he’s just a winner and makes winning plays”, defensive intensity, “baller”, but have offensive shortcomings or aren’t good shooters category of player types... guys like Davion Mitchell & Isaac Okoro, and I always convince myself the shot will come around and improve. But then it doesn’t.

Yeah, I'm cooling on Castle too.

If we trade down to #7 or #8, I'm okay with him (but would prefer Holland). I definitely would not take him at #2.

At this point, the only guys I'd be truly happy with at #2 are Sarr or Sheppard. I'd be cautiously optimistic if we got Holland or Buzelis. I'd be moderately disappointed with Castle, Clingan or Risacher.

[nate33]

I'm starting to think drafting for fit should be a bit of a factor here. With Bilal looking so good in workouts, and with the Deni breakout, forward is really not a priority. And then factor that some of the best prospects in the 2025 draft are also forwards (Flagg, Bailey).

I'm not saying we should reach for fit over BPA, but if there's a tie between a forward, center or guard, we should lean toward the guard or center. It's one of the reasons why Sarr and Sheppard are a bit higher on my list.

[DCZards]

Man...watching, long lean players like Brown, Holiday and White dominate an NBA finals game with their defense...and seeing an elite offensive player like Irving struggle against that kind of defensive intensity...makes me want Stephon Castle even more.

Great FO
Great Coach
Great teamwork, no one guy is trying win on his own. Castle would fit right in on this Celtic team, but someone’s gotta score the ball too.

This is all no doubt true. So if you’re the Zards FO do you prioritize scoring in someone like Sheppard or Dillingham or size and D in players like Castle and Sarr.

I’m honestly on the fence…but in a situation like this my default tends to be defense and length.

When your offense struggles your D can put you over the top. We saw that last night with Boston. It was also D that got Minny past Denver and into the WC finals.

My ideal draft is probably Sarr, Castle or Risacher with the #2 pick and Carrington, who I think will be one of the best offensive players to come out of this draft, at 26.

[closg00]

Man...watching, long lean players like Brown, Holiday and White dominate an NBA finals game with their defense...and seeing an elite offensive player like Irving struggle against that kind of defensive intensity...makes me want Stephon Castle even more.

Great FO
Great Coach
Great teamwork, no one guy is trying win on his own. Castle would fit right in on this Celtic team, but someone’s gotta score the ball too.

This is all no doubt true. So if you’re the Zards FO do you prioritize scoring in someone like Sheppard or Dillingham or size and D in players like Castle and Sarr.

I’m honestly on the fence…but in a situation like this my default tends to be defense and length.

When your offense struggles your D can put you over the top. We saw that last night with Boston. It was also D that got Minny past Denver and into the WC finals.

From what Coach Keefe said, we are going to continue to play at a fast pace, so who is the best fit for that worthy of going at #2? Sarr, Zach, Sheppard, and some others fit the bill for fast-paced run-and-gun, but then you would also need some grinding half-courts guys too.

[dobrojim]

Man...watching, long lean players like Brown, Holiday and White dominate an NBA finals game with their defense...and seeing an elite offensive player like Irving struggle against that kind of defensive intensity...makes me want Stephon Castle even more.

Great FO
Great Coach
Great teamwork, no one guy is trying win on his own. Castle would fit right in on this Celtic team, but someone’s gotta score the ball too.

I've long despised the Celtics but watching them this year win over and over
the thing I concluded last night (as they were going up 2-0) is how cerebral their
players are. Yes, they are physically gifted as well but as a group, they react
to capitalize on every advantage that offers itself and rarely force issues
when their opponent manages to momentarily create an advantage.
They make the 'right' play and also the easy one if you can describe
any NBA game sequence as being easy.

[dobrojim]

Besides Sheppard, are there any other truly elite shooters in this draft?

At the end of the day, you have to be able to make baskets to win.

Obviously defense is critical as well but might more about things like
mindset and effort.

I guess we will see which side of the ball our FO prioritizes in whether
we end up with Castle or Sheppard. Or whether they think a team can't afford
obvious weak links on either side of the ball and they pick a more
all-around player.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/reed-sheppard

on paper, a player rated 4 stars for EF%, TS%, 3PT%, Steals and FG%
and 3 stars for blocks and DEF+/- sounds awfully good.

Will he be the guy a year from now that everyone will say should
have obviously been taken? Or once taken if demonstrated he can't
stay in front of anyone will people say that was obvious?

[payitforward]

I'm starting to think drafting for fit should be a bit of a factor here. ...I'm not saying we should reach for fit over BPA, but if there's a tie between a forward, center or guard, we should lean toward the guard or center. It's one of the reasons why Sarr and Sheppard are a bit higher on my list.

Although this makes sense on its own terms, nate, I'd say we are way too talent-poor overall to worry much about "fit" in this draft -- just try to add the highest-value prospects available. Especially I wouldn't want to move someone up my list based on fit.

Or, to put it even better, add the maximum overall talent possible. In case of a "tie," sure, pick the guy who you prefer for fit -- as you point out. But... beware of convincing yourself of something -- e.g. of ranking someone "a bit higher" than otherwise you would, because you like his fit.

A related problem: if we add 1 good player a year through the draft... when are we ever going to have a good team? If we happen to hit on a star, a generational player, sure, but....

We need surprises. It's not about whom we take at 2 as much as it is about how we use our draft capital to add as much talent as possible. Prime case I have in mind: last year the Warriors got Podziemski & TJ-D at 19 & 57. It may not be obvious yet, but those two picks will turn out to have radically improved their future outlook! Akin, potentially, to getting Draymond at 35, another example of the same point I'm hoping to make

Would I rather have, say, the 13th, 17th & 29th pick instead of the 2d pick? For a team in our condition? You bet I would. This year & most years.

[nate33]

Besides Sheppard, are there any other truly elite shooters in this draft?

At the end of the day, you have to be able to make baskets to win.

Yes. Knecht and McCain.

I have no interest at all in Knecht. I think Kispert is better.

McCain is very interesting. If we had a pick in the low teens, he's a guy I would target, assuming we didn't already pick up a diminutive guard like Sheppard.

[payitforward]

Besides Sheppard, are there any other truly elite shooters in this draft?

At the end of the day, you have to be able to make baskets to win.

Yes. Knecht and McCain.

I have no interest at all in Knecht. I think Kispert is better.

McCain is very interesting. If we had a pick in the low teens, he's a guy I would target, assuming we didn't already pick up a diminutive guard like Sheppard.

Right... & this is one reason I was sorry to see that Mark Sears returned to Alabama for his last year of eligibility....

[closg00]

Besides Sheppard, are there any other truly elite shooters in this draft?

At the end of the day, you have to be able to make baskets to win.

Obviously defense is critical as well but might more about things like
mindset and effort.

I guess we will see which side of the ball our FO prioritizes in whether
we end up with Castle or Sheppard. Or whether they think a team can't afford
obvious weak links on either side of the ball and they pick a more
all-around player.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/reed-sheppard

on paper, a player rated 4 stars for EF%, TS%, 3PT%, Steals and FG%
and 3 stars for blocks and DEF+/- sounds awfully good.

Will he be the guy a year from now that everyone will say should
have obviously been taken? Or once taken if demonstrated he can't
stay in front of anyone will people say that was obvious?

..also to piggyback on this point, who on this team will be your clutch shooter/player down the stretch not just be a decent shooter during games? We certainly don’t have one, Poole is not the guy, but I see the UK boys as future clutch players, Dalton too, disagree on with Nate on Corey vs Dalton, but we’re not drafting him anyway…

[nate33]

Besides Sheppard, are there any other truly elite shooters in this draft?

At the end of the day, you have to be able to make baskets to win.

Obviously defense is critical as well but might more about things like
mindset and effort.

I guess we will see which side of the ball our FO prioritizes in whether
we end up with Castle or Sheppard. Or whether they think a team can't afford
obvious weak links on either side of the ball and they pick a more
all-around player.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/reed-sheppard

on paper, a player rated 4 stars for EF%, TS%, 3PT%, Steals and FG%
and 3 stars for blocks and DEF+/- sounds awfully good.

Will he be the guy a year from now that everyone will say should
have obviously been taken? Or once taken if demonstrated he can't
stay in front of anyone will people say that was obvious?

..also to piggyback on this point, who on this team will be your clutch shooter/player down the stretch not just be a decent shooter during games? We certainly don’t have one, Poole is not the guy, but I see the UK boys as future clutch players, Dalton too, disagree on with Nate on Corey vs Dalton, but we’re not drafting him anyway…

Knecht is a better on-ball shot creator than Kispert, but I value Kispert's off-ball actions and his finishing around the rim more. I also think Kispert is a better defender (which is damning with feint praise, I know).

[doclinkin]

Man...watching, long lean players like Brown, Holiday and White dominate an NBA finals game with their defense...and seeing an elite offensive player like Irving struggle against that kind of defensive intensity...makes me want Stephon Castle even more.

Great FO
Great Coach
Great teamwork, no one guy is trying win on his own. Castle would fit right in on this Celtic team, but someone’s gotta score the ball too.

This is all no doubt true. So if you’re the Zards FO do you prioritize scoring in someone like Sheppard or Dillingham or size and D in players like Castle and Sarr.

I’m honestly on the fence…but in a situation like this my default tends to be defense and length.

When your offense struggles your D can put you over the top. We saw that last night with Boston. It was also D that got Minny past Denver and into the WC finals.

My ideal draft is probably Sarr, Castle or Risacher with the #2 pick and Carrington, who I think will be one of the best offensive players to come out of this draft, at 26.

Boston only struggled this year against Milwaukee, Minnesota, and Denver. They also lost games to Indiana twice (Haliburton went off) and New York late season when the Knicks were sharpest. In losses they tended to be outrebounded. These are teams who go big across the front line, with big mobile defenders. If you are building to defeat a team with length and shooting all around I think you can beat them up with dominant interior scoring and challenge them outside with rangy defenders of your own. We know Porzingis will struggle against beast frontcourt players inside. If you beat on Tatum a bit and make him work I think you can make him meltdown a little.

But yeah they are good, and deep, and well coached, with probably the best front office in the league.

[DCZards]

Man...watching, long lean players like Brown, Holiday and White dominate an NBA finals game with their defense...and seeing an elite offensive player like Irving struggle against that kind of defensive intensity...makes me want Stephon Castle even more.

Great FO
Great Coach
Great teamwork, no one guy is trying win on his own. Castle would fit right in on this Celtic team, but someone’s gotta score the ball too.

I've long despised the Celtics but watching them this year win over and over
the thing I concluded last night (as they were going up 2-0) is how cerebral their
players are. Yes, they are physically gifted as well but as a group, they react
to capitalize on every advantage that offers itself and rarely force issues
when their opponent manages to momentarily create an advantage.
They make the 'right' play and also the easy one if you can describe
any NBA game sequence as being easy.

As closg says, Castle would “fit right in” on the Celtics. He’s smart, unselfish and plays the right way. Shouldn’t that tell us something about Castle’s potential value to a rebuilding team like the Zards?

People are legitimately concerned about Castle’s shooting. The 2021-22 ROY, Scottie Barnes, shot 30% from 3 in his rookie season. He has since improved to 34%, where I could see Castle getting to in one or two years.

Barnes is a damn good and extremely versatile NBA player…despite not being a great shooter.