True cost of losing top 10 pick: could this be consequence to rebuild?

[ForeverTFC]

This doesn't mater at all, like literally at all.

The argument is that the FO valued Jak higher than the pick, I can agree with that. Except they valued him higher than the pick they expected to give up, not the pick it ended up being.

They expected to give up a pick that is 7 or worst in this year's draft. Therefore, they did not value the picks in this draft highly. It could have been 7, it could have been 8, it could have been 9, or it could have been 10. It doesn't matter. They are all of "mid-teens" value and the FO had already ascertained this value to the pick.

Givonny was on Lowe's pod last year during the off-season and said that there are many execs trying to dump their picks for '24. The value of the picks in this draft didn't just become apparent now. It's been apparent for a while.

There is absolutely zero chance they expected to give up a pick that high. You could argue maybe they were accepting of giving up a pick that high, but there was no way that was part of the plan. That would directly indicate they expected the trade to be a failure. Unless you're willing to admit that they fully expected Jak to do nothing more than raise us from a top 5 pick to a top 8 pick. In which case, why the **** would you ever make that trade.

You're just being contrarian at this point. There is not a snowballs chance in hell, that they didn't expect to be outside of the lotto when that chicken came home to roost. The fact that we gave up a lotto pick just proves whatever moves were made, were failures.

Unless we are gonna sit here with a straight face and ignore that Masai himself, all but publicly stated that the trade was a mistake. You are not someone I would consider stupid in the slightest, so I don't understand how you can look at all these glaringly obvious signs and moves that were made, the fact that they objectively failed, and still assume that this was all part of the plan.

Fine. They were comfortable giving up a pick that was 7th or worst. Is that better?

I'm on record saying the moment FVV walked, the Poeltl trade became a disaster. I'm not debating the merits of the Peoltl trade in the context of our team. I'm simply saying the value they gave up in a vaccum was not outlandish. My claim is simple: the FO was comfortable giving up a pick as high as 7 in this draft for Poeltl given how they valued these picks. And that in a vaccum, it does not seem that they were incorrect in the value of this pick vs Poeltl. That's it. That's all I'm saying.

[Scase]

They expected to give up a pick that is 7 or worst in this year's draft. Therefore, they did not value the picks in this draft highly. It could have been 7, it could have been 8, it could have been 9, or it could have been 10. It doesn't matter. They are all of "mid-teens" value and the FO had already ascertained this value to the pick.

Givonny was on Lowe's pod last year during the off-season and said that there are many execs trying to dump their picks for '24. The value of the picks in this draft didn't just become apparent now. It's been apparent for a while.

There is absolutely zero chance they expected to give up a pick that high. You could argue maybe they were accepting of giving up a pick that high, but there was no way that was part of the plan. That would directly indicate they expected the trade to be a failure. Unless you're willing to admit that they fully expected Jak to do nothing more than raise us from a top 5 pick to a top 8 pick. In which case, why the **** would you ever make that trade.

You're just being contrarian at this point. There is not a snowballs chance in hell, that they didn't expect to be outside of the lotto when that chicken came home to roost. The fact that we gave up a lotto pick just proves whatever moves were made, were failures.

Unless we are gonna sit here with a straight face and ignore that Masai himself, all but publicly stated that the trade was a mistake. You are not someone I would consider stupid in the slightest, so I don't understand how you can look at all these glaringly obvious signs and moves that were made, the fact that they objectively failed, and still assume that this was all part of the plan.

Fine. They were comfortable giving up a pick that was 7th or worst. Is that better?

I'm on record saying the moment FVV walked, the Poeltl trade became a disaster. I'm not debating the merits of the Peoltl trade in the context of our team. I'm simply saying the value they gave up in a vaccum was not outlandish. My claim is simple: the FO was comfortable giving up a pick as high as 7 in this draft for Poeltl given how they valued these picks. And that in a vaccum, it does not seem that they were incorrect in the value of this pick vs Poeltl. That's it. That's all I'm saying.

That's fair, I don't agree that they were ok with that trade (8th specifically), but rather they were ok with the risk as they probably expected it to be a low chance of it happening. I feel like with hindsight they would uno reverse that trade and would rather the pick.

[Tacoma]

They expected to give up a pick that is 7 or worst in this year's draft. Therefore, they did not value the picks in this draft highly. It could have been 7, it could have been 8, it could have been 9, or it could have been 10. It doesn't matter. They are all of "mid-teens" value and the FO had already ascertained this value to the pick.

Givonny was on Lowe's pod last year during the off-season and said that there are many execs trying to dump their picks for '24. The value of the picks in this draft didn't just become apparent now. It's been apparent for a while.

There is absolutely zero chance they expected to give up a pick that high. You could argue maybe they were accepting of giving up a pick that high, but there was no way that was part of the plan. That would directly indicate they expected the trade to be a failure. Unless you're willing to admit that they fully expected Jak to do nothing more than raise us from a top 5 pick to a top 8 pick. In which case, why the **** would you ever make that trade.

You're just being contrarian at this point. There is not a snowballs chance in hell, that they didn't expect to be outside of the lotto when that chicken came home to roost. The fact that we gave up a lotto pick just proves whatever moves were made, were failures.

Unless we are gonna sit here with a straight face and ignore that Masai himself, all but publicly stated that the trade was a mistake. You are not someone I would consider stupid in the slightest, so I don't understand how you can look at all these glaringly obvious signs and moves that were made, the fact that they objectively failed, and still assume that this was all part of the plan.

Fine. They were comfortable giving up a pick that was 7th or worst. Is that better?

I'm on record saying the moment FVV walked, the Poeltl trade became a disaster. I'm not debating the merits of the Peoltl trade in the context of our team. I'm simply saying the value they gave up in a vaccum was not outlandish. My claim is simple: the FO was comfortable giving up a pick as high as 7 in this draft for Poeltl given how they valued these picks. And that in a vaccum, it does not seem that they were incorrect in the value of this pick vs Poeltl. That's it. That's all I'm saying.

So you're saying it's a fair trade in a vacuum that became a disaster with some context? What's the point? You do not make trades in a vacuum. We were a 10th place team (in East) before the trade and ended up 9th out of playoffs, all with FVV.

It wasn't unforeseeable that FVV would walk - some of us argued this very fact - but even if we had re-signed FVV, we'd be at best a play-in team and it would still be a disaster unless your goal was to make the play-in. Had we been a ECF contending team missing a vet C to put us over the top, then you could justify expending draft capital for Poeltl. But we were in 10th place.

Sure, if you were to strip away all context and tunnel vision the trade in a vacuum, then maybe you could see a fair valuation. But that's like saying I bought a Toyota at fair value but I actually don't need a car. The valuation is beside the point. Context is everything and the trade should not have happened.

[Indeed]

Picking Scottie against consensus in perhaps the most consequential draft of the last decade for this franchise is nothing?

Define consensus.
I had Barnes as well, is that something surprised me and need to praise the FO? Not to me.

What do you mean define consensus? It means consensus. It means, to the best of our knowledge based on information made public to us, Suggs was above Barnes on majority of draft boards and rated higher by a higher portion of draft experts.

Congrats to you if you had Barnes at 4 or higher. You were also going against consensus in this case, just like the FO. You should both be congratulated for being able to see what the majority missed.

I mean how do you determine creditable source of data for doing consensus.
More than often it is just hype, those are not creditable source to me, as many who does the scouting (watch taps) have different big boards.

[ForeverTFC]

There is absolutely zero chance they expected to give up a pick that high. You could argue maybe they were accepting of giving up a pick that high, but there was no way that was part of the plan. That would directly indicate they expected the trade to be a failure. Unless you're willing to admit that they fully expected Jak to do nothing more than raise us from a top 5 pick to a top 8 pick. In which case, why the **** would you ever make that trade.

You're just being contrarian at this point. There is not a snowballs chance in hell, that they didn't expect to be outside of the lotto when that chicken came home to roost. The fact that we gave up a lotto pick just proves whatever moves were made, were failures.

Unless we are gonna sit here with a straight face and ignore that Masai himself, all but publicly stated that the trade was a mistake. You are not someone I would consider stupid in the slightest, so I don't understand how you can look at all these glaringly obvious signs and moves that were made, the fact that they objectively failed, and still assume that this was all part of the plan.

Fine. They were comfortable giving up a pick that was 7th or worst. Is that better?

I'm on record saying the moment FVV walked, the Poeltl trade became a disaster. I'm not debating the merits of the Peoltl trade in the context of our team. I'm simply saying the value they gave up in a vaccum was not outlandish. My claim is simple: the FO was comfortable giving up a pick as high as 7 in this draft for Poeltl given how they valued these picks. And that in a vaccum, it does not seem that they were incorrect in the value of this pick vs Poeltl. That's it. That's all I'm saying.

So you're saying it's a fair trade in a vacuum that became a disaster with some context? What's the point? You do not make trades in a vacuum. We were a 10th place team (in East) before the trade and ended up 9th out of playoffs, all with FVV.

It wasn't unforeseeable that FVV would walk - some of us argued this very fact - but even if we had re-signed FVV, we'd be at best a play-in team and it would still be a disaster unless your goal was to make the play-in. Had we been a ECF contending team missing a vet C to put us over the top, then you could justify expending draft capital for Poeltl. But we were in 10th place.

Sure, if you were to strip away all context and tunnel vision the trade in a vacuum, then maybe you could see a fair valuation. But that's like saying I bought a Toyota at fair value but I actually don't need a car. The valuation is beside the point. Context is everything and the trade should not have happened.

No, context matters. But the context today is not what the context was when the trade went down. Yes, we were 10th when the trade was made, but the stats said we should have had a higher win total than we did at that time. And our win rate with Poeltl was >.570 which would have been good for 5th in the east. At the time the trade was made, it wasn't exactly clear that Houston was coming after FVV as Harden was still their target then, before Udoka came, so not sure how we saw that one coming.

There are a portion of posters here who thought that team's record was exactly who they were despite the numbers saying otherwise and that FVV would get overpaid by someone. They ended up being correct at least on the latter, which meant we will never know regarding the former. However, it's not like everyone but the FO saw it one way. I didn't. Others on this board were in the same boat as me and didn't. The media was split on it with some of the more "analytical" guys saying it was an interesting move and had some rationale to it.

We can debate whether the FO overvalued our pieces in '22, i don't think they did but I recognize this is subjective. We can debate whether the FO messed up the FVV FA. I think it's the worst mistake they made this entire run. But if we take their view of the team as a given, then yes, the vaccum I'm describing Poeltl's value in is the value Poeltl had to this FO.

[nivisi9]

Scottie is not going to ask out after 2-3 years. He’ll gladly take that max extension and maybe threatens to walk when his contract expires, but that’s the extent of it. Acting like we’ll lose him for sure because of rebuilding seasons is just alarmist bs from the posters who want to compete right away.

Yeah trading our pick for Poeltl was a poor decision, even at the time considering the pick wasn’t lottery protected but Barnes is going to get the money first.

I didn't necessarily mean Scottie would ask out, more so the taxing daily reality of long term losing eventually effecting Masai's decision making in a short sighted way.

You could almost feel how deeply not even half a season of that type losing effected Masai in his presser. He even went into the talks he's had with Scottie about building a winner around him. A season that included a 15 game losing streak and basically getting nothing out of it.

I just don't necessarily buy into them bottoming out for another FULL season or 2 of that (which is unfortunately likely exactly what needs to happen-- roster is desperate for some high end prospects.)

That's basically what I am getting at.

we can all sit here and clearly see what we would do as fans (same way the consensus did last deadline prior to the trade) but I think a very underrated factor is how everyone working/playing in the organization lives this day in and day out.

Losing is taxing and damaging in so many ways and Masai is very emotional attached to his players and the concept of "winning".

[YogurtProducer]

There is absolutely zero chance they expected to give up a pick that high. You could argue maybe they were accepting of giving up a pick that high, but there was no way that was part of the plan. That would directly indicate they expected the trade to be a failure. Unless you're willing to admit that they fully expected Jak to do nothing more than raise us from a top 5 pick to a top 8 pick. In which case, why the **** would you ever make that trade.

You're just being contrarian at this point. There is not a snowballs chance in hell, that they didn't expect to be outside of the lotto when that chicken came home to roost. The fact that we gave up a lotto pick just proves whatever moves were made, were failures.

Unless we are gonna sit here with a straight face and ignore that Masai himself, all but publicly stated that the trade was a mistake. You are not someone I would consider stupid in the slightest, so I don't understand how you can look at all these glaringly obvious signs and moves that were made, the fact that they objectively failed, and still assume that this was all part of the plan.

Fine. They were comfortable giving up a pick that was 7th or worst. Is that better?

I'm on record saying the moment FVV walked, the Poeltl trade became a disaster. I'm not debating the merits of the Peoltl trade in the context of our team. I'm simply saying the value they gave up in a vaccum was not outlandish. My claim is simple: the FO was comfortable giving up a pick as high as 7 in this draft for Poeltl given how they valued these picks. And that in a vaccum, it does not seem that they were incorrect in the value of this pick vs Poeltl. That's it. That's all I'm saying.

So you're saying it's a fair trade in a vacuum that became a disaster with some context? What's the point? You do not make trades in a vacuum. We were a 10th place team (in East) before the trade and ended up 9th out of playoffs, all with FVV.

It wasn't unforeseeable that FVV would walk - some of us argued this very fact - but even if we had re-signed FVV, we'd be at best a play-in team and it would still be a disaster unless your goal was to make the play-in. Had we been a ECF contending team missing a vet C to put us over the top, then you could justify expending draft capital for Poeltl. But we were in 10th place.

Sure, if you were to strip away all context and tunnel vision the trade in a vacuum, then maybe you could see a fair valuation. But that's like saying I bought a Toyota at fair value but I actually don't need a car. The valuation is beside the point. Context is everything and the trade should not have happened.

I will push back that nothing can make the deal a "disaster" outside of there being a legit franchise altering talent taken in this draft that conceivably could have been takn at #7 (so no Jokic in the 2nd round type thing).

From a pure "value" standpoint, it is more likely Poeltl is a more productive and valuable asset over the next 3-4 years than whoever is drafted at #8. It is very, very possible that the #8 pick is at its most valuable right now and will just decrease from here. On the flip side, there is also the (lower) possibility the #8 pick grows immensely in value

We essentially have the low risk low reward asset. #8 is high risk high reward. Now, there is a legitimate argument we should be going for the riskier plays right now, but going low risk does not make it a disaster

[Dalek]

Although many are universally low on the 2024 draft it was still highly likely we could've came away with a nice prospect to add to the core (picking top 8).

Especially if you buy into the theory that this draft is considered "weak" only due to lack of star power at the very top (Which many draft experts have strongly indicated while now praising the depth of this draft).

by now giving up a top 8 pick (completely wasted losing season)..

---Scottie isn't going to want losing for another 2-3 yrs, Masai will feel that pressure and start making treadmill moves before then.

--- At THAT POINT we'll really feel losing this pick and not having that extra core piece, because once that occurs and those moves start being made we are what we are (for the most part - foundation building wise) moving forward.

I read this recently and realized this 100% could be the long term negative consequence/reality of losing this top 10 pick and effecting the rebuild.

Anyone else see this potentially happening?

especially considering Masai's recent yrs track record of transactions? (consumed with poor short sighted treadmill moves).

I think losing the pick was the best outcome. Number one reason is controllability of our future picks. Now we can go into 2024-25 and win or lose as much as we want. If we do well and want to add we can trade one of the 2026 picks at the deadline which we would not have been able to do if we were potentially losing the pick in 2025.

The 2024 class is NOT weak but flat, but I don't see there being a huge market for the lotto picks. The justification is that there is no franchise level talent in this class. No one where he has positional size, outlier athleticism and/or scoring skill. This class is full of good role players. Toronto likely gets two rotation guys to fill out the bench.

The 2025 class has a number of game changers: Cooper Flagg, Ace Bailey, Nolan Traore, Khaman Maluach, Connor Murray-Boyles. Let's hope we land one of them. We also

[Pointgod]

Scottie is not going to ask out after 2-3 years. He’ll gladly take that max extension and maybe threatens to walk when his contract expires, but that’s the extent of it. Acting like we’ll lose him for sure because of rebuilding seasons is just alarmist bs from the posters who want to compete right away.

Yeah trading our pick for Poeltl was a poor decision, even at the time considering the pick wasn’t lottery protected but Barnes is going to get the money first.

I didn't necessarily mean Scottie would ask out, more so the taxing daily reality of long term losing eventually effecting Masai's decision making in a short sighted way.

You could almost feel how deeply not even half a season of that type losing effected Masai in his presser. He even went into the talks he's had with Scottie about building a winner around him. A season that included a 15 game losing streak and basically getting nothing out of it.

I just don't necessarily buy into them bottoming out for another FULL season or 2 of that (which is unfortunately likely exactly what needs to happen-- roster is desperate for some high end prospects.)

That's basically what I am getting at.

we can all sit here and clearly see what we would do as fans (same way the consensus did last deadline prior to the trade) but I think a very underrated factor is how everyone working/playing in the organization lives this day in and day out.

Losing is taxing and damaging in so many ways and Masai is very emotional attached to his players and the concept of "winning".

I think it’s a GMs job to articulate a vision to htjeir bosses, the coach, the team and best players. Scottie won’t get tired of losing if there’s a clearly communicated outcome, it’s part of the process. If Masai begins to panic and make win now moves just to appease Scottie then that’s a failure on the front office since there wasn’t a clear rebuilding plan.

Long story short players are okay with losing if there’s a purpose behind it (get younger, more athletic, get players that fit Scottie’s timeline) but rushing and making win now transactions just to appease a player often has the opposite effect.

[720]

I don’t care. Tank in 2025 anyways. Get another blue chip prospect next to Scottie.

[LiSTWithLani]

The cost of losing our top 10 pick was a top 10 center

Poeltl is not a top 10 C. Don’t buy that fake talking point.

I used to think that too. Here are Cs more valuable than Poeltl:

Jokic
Embiid
ADavis
Wemby
Chet
Gobert
KAT
Adebayo
DLively
Sengun

And probably also MTurner, NClaxton, JDurren.

There’s a case to be made for like 12-13 Cs easily better than Poeltl. Also guys like Porzingis/Horford/Okongwu/MWilliams are arguably better fits for their teams than Poeltl.

Masai made several bad moves. We should still keep him though, because he’s better than going back to the pre-Masai era. We probably need another guy to counter Bobby.

I agree top 10 is ambitious and likely untrue.

But Lively/Duren are not better than Poeltl (just younger and more valuable due to age). TUrner/Claxton are similar tiered players but have different strengths/weaknesses themselves.

Jokic/Embiid/Davis/Wemby/Chet/Rudy/KAT/Bam/JJJ/Sabonis/Sengun are the clear top 11 (although KAT/JJJ are better suited as or play PF a lot, and Sengun is a littler overrated IMO). Poeltl is in that next tier with like nother 7-8 guys.

I think that I would put Jarrett Allen ahead of Poeltl as well. with Evan Mobley in the KAT/JJJ "Better suited as PF" group as well.

[will]

Just go look at the previous 20 picks made 8th overall the nba draft. It's not the catastrophe you are painting it as.

So which one is it, our FO is great at drafting. Or the 8th is a bad pick. Cause it cant be both. I'll never understand this ass backwards reasoning.

The Raptors played the Wiz in the first round of their 2019 'Chip.

[will]

What's done is done.

[binjumper]

It's just a 8th pick in a weak draft. This gets blown up way too much. Jak is also a very tradable contract. Did people not see the new nba deal? that cap is spiking. Raptors also have control of all their pick + some more acquired through the trades. The rebuild will be fine. Enjoy the great summer we are having.

[Shakril]

Poeltl is not a top 10 C. Don’t buy that fake talking point.

I used to think that too. Here are Cs more valuable than Poeltl:

Jokic
Embiid
ADavis
Wemby
Chet
Gobert
KAT
Adebayo
DLively
Sengun

And probably also MTurner, NClaxton, JDurren.

There’s a case to be made for like 12-13 Cs easily better than Poeltl. Also guys like Porzingis/Horford/Okongwu/MWilliams are arguably better fits for their teams than Poeltl.

Masai made several bad moves. We should still keep him though, because he’s better than going back to the pre-Masai era. We probably need another guy to counter Bobby.

I agree top 10 is ambitious and likely untrue.

But Lively/Duren are not better than Poeltl (just younger and more valuable due to age). TUrner/Claxton are similar tiered players but have different strengths/weaknesses themselves.

Jokic/Embiid/Davis/Wemby/Chet/Rudy/KAT/Bam/JJJ/Sabonis/Sengun are the clear top 11 (although KAT/JJJ are better suited as or play PF a lot, and Sengun is a littler overrated IMO). Poeltl is in that next tier with like nother 7-8 guys.

I think that I would put Jarrett Allen ahead of Poeltl as well. with Evan Mobley in the KAT/JJJ "Better suited as PF" group as well.

Point is, after the top dogs there is plethora of centers that are in the same range. Depending on what you value one center is better than the other. But the way Poeltl is beeing talked about is simply undervalueing him. His impact is undeniable and he did outplay some of those top dogs this year. But people just talk him down, cause of that trad that masai made.

[anotherhomer]

i think eventually raps need to tank one more season at least