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**NBA Draft Discussion 2024**

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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#1701 » by twix2500 » Mon Jun 10, 2024 3:41 pm

greg4012 wrote:
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There are littered throughout his game tape. Real stuff that needs to get sorted out and due diligence needs to determine he's hungry to do so and has awareness to do so. Potential Christian Wood issues.

I'm def glad that the Heat are working out Ware as his talent is undeniable. That one-on-one in person time paired with frank testimony from Mike Woodson and Don MacLean should all be invaluable.



That is not motor and heart. That is fundamentals and discipline. You can see he needs coaching, but as you can see when he got with Woodson and got coaching his game flourished. So its shown that he is receptive to coaching and has the talent. I do not think its anything to be alarmed about. Get him coaching that will teach him how to be a big man he should flourish.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#1702 » by greg4012 » Mon Jun 10, 2024 3:49 pm

twix2500 wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
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There are littered throughout his game tape. Real stuff that needs to get sorted out and due diligence needs to determine he's hungry to do so and has awareness to do so. Potential Christian Wood issues.

I'm def glad that the Heat are working out Ware as his talent is undeniable. That one-on-one in person time paired with frank testimony from Mike Woodson and Don MacLean should all be invaluable.



That is not motor and heart. That is fundamentals and discipline. You can see he needs coaching, but as you can see when he got with Woodson and got coaching his game flourished. So its shown that he is receptive to coaching and has the talent. I do not think its anything to be alarmed about. Get him coaching that will teach him how to be a big man he should flourish.


I hope so. I can't come to conclusions on that as easily as you seem to be able to do from the computer screen. I don't think it's so easy to distinguish whether it's just teachable and whether the student is hungry to learn and compete. It's not like he showed up at Indiana and all problems were solved. These sort of plays are all over his Indiana tape.

You don't think he's ever been taught to account for the location of opposition in transition?

That's why the in-person evaluations and testimonials from trusted sources are extra important for Ware IMO.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#1703 » by greg4012 » Mon Jun 10, 2024 4:44 pm

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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#1704 » by MettaWorldPanda » Mon Jun 10, 2024 5:12 pm

twix2500 wrote:When I take a deep dive into a player, my process is to look at full game tape versus top defensive teams, top teams and vs high level players at their position.

Evaulating Tristen Newton vs Devin Carter and omg :-o


Devin Carter is such a complete savage. Damn I hope he's there at 15. He's my #1 on the board followed by Collier based off the workout list.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#1705 » by greg4012 » Mon Jun 10, 2024 5:17 pm

greg4012 wrote:As everyone gets inundated with more and more draft tidbits and noise in the weeks leading up to the draft, I do think it remains important to highlight and remember how much the age of the prospect should impact the lens through which the prospect is assessed. All Freshman should get some benefit of the doubt with stats relative to upperclassmen. The youngest freshmen should get even more benefit of doubt as the physical improvement and technical improvement path that they have in front of them usually leaves a lot of untapped potential (especially for those with more athletic tools and size)

An exercise I value with young prospects is looking at their season splits. If a player shows clear growth and development over the back half/third of their season then that's a great indicator of a strong rate of development. Pair great physical tools with youth and an indicator for growth and development and you have a shot at a star trajectory in the NBA.

So, below I've provided the following for 4 young prospects that are likely to be on Miami's radar for the 15th pick:

- Draft age
- Season averages
- Averages from last leg of the season (last 10 games)

RON HOLLAND [18.95 on draft day]

Season Stats: 19.5 ppg / 46% FG / 24% 3PT (3.3 3PA) / 72.8% FT / 2.9 AST / 3.6 TO / 6.7 REB / 2.3 STL / 0.9 BLK
Last 10 Games: 22.7 ppg / 49% FG / 28.5% 3PT (3.5 3PA) / 73.6% FT / 3.7 AST / 2.8 TO / 7.1 REB / 2.4 STL / 0.8 BLK

ISAIAH COLLIER [19.7 on draft day]

Season Stats: 16.3 ppg / 49% FG / 33.8% 3PT (3 3PA) / 67.3% FT / 4.3 AST / 3.3 TO / 2.9 REB / 1.5 STL / 0.2 BLK
Last 11 Games: 17.6 ppg / 47.2% FG / 37.5% 3PT (2.9 3PA) / 68.5% FT / 4.5 AST / 2.8 TO / 3.3 REB / 1.8 STL / 0.3 BLK

BUB CARRINGTON [18.92 on draft day]

Season Stats: 13.8 ppg / 41.2% FG / 32.2% 3PT (6.1 3PA) / 78.5% FT / 4.1 AST / 1.9 TO / 5.2 REB / 0.6 STL / 0.2 BLK
Last 10 Games: 14.3 ppg / 44.7% FG / 40.3% 3PT (6.2 3PA) / 67% FT / 4 AST / 2.1 TO / 5.2 REB / 0.7 STL / 0.1 BLK


JARED MCCAIN [20.3 on draft day]

Season Stats: 14.3 ppg / 46.2% FG / 41.4% 3PT (5.8 3PA) / 88.5% FT / 1.9 AST / 1.3 TO / 5 REB / 1.1 STL / 0.1 BLK
Last 10 games: 16.3 ppg / 47.1% FG / 44.4% 3PT (6.3 3PA) / 94.5% FT / 2.1 AST / 1.6 TO / 5.3 REB / 1 STL / 0.2 BLK


Additional note: I used 11 games for Isaiah Collier because the last 11 games of the season represent him coming back from injury after missing about a month. USC went 1-5 during his absence.

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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#1706 » by twix2500 » Mon Jun 10, 2024 5:36 pm

greg4012 wrote:
twix2500 wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
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There are littered throughout his game tape. Real stuff that needs to get sorted out and due diligence needs to determine he's hungry to do so and has awareness to do so. Potential Christian Wood issues.

I'm def glad that the Heat are working out Ware as his talent is undeniable. That one-on-one in person time paired with frank testimony from Mike Woodson and Don MacLean should all be invaluable.



That is not motor and heart. That is fundamentals and discipline. You can see he needs coaching, but as you can see when he got with Woodson and got coaching his game flourished. So its shown that he is receptive to coaching and has the talent. I do not think its anything to be alarmed about. Get him coaching that will teach him how to be a big man he should flourish.


I hope so. I can't come to conclusions on that as easily as you seem to be able to do from the computer screen. I don't think it's so easy to distinguish whether it's just teachable and whether the student is hungry to learn and compete. It's not like he showed up at Indiana and all problems were solved. These sort of plays are all over his Indiana tape.

You don't think he's ever been taught to account for the location of opposition in transition?

That's why the in-person evaluations and testimonials from trusted sources are extra important for Ware IMO.


A lot of players are not. That is result of coaching. Big men in general do not get great coaching. One because most coaches are not big men and do not understand the fine techniques of a big man oppose to a guard. The angles and fundamentals are different. This is not uncommon. You see it alot with non bigs as well especially freshmen. It is wrong to assume kids are being taught to be fundamental sound
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#1707 » by greg4012 » Mon Jun 10, 2024 5:48 pm

Keeping the Collier wave going

Image

The above are the only college freshman since 2008 to meet the following thresholds:

- Usage rate >= 25% (Collier = 30.2%)
- eFG% >= 50% (Collier = 53.3%)
- TS% >= 55% (Collier = 56.7%
- Assist % >= 25% (Collier = 31.1%)
- Steal % >= 2% (Collier = 2.9%)
- 3PA per 100 >= 4 attempts (Collier = 5.7 attempts)
- FT rate >= 30% (Collier = 49.7%)

Pretty damn good company. All very dynamic athletic Freshman PGs. All top 10 picks except Tremont Waters (tiny at 5'10) and Terrell Stoglin (no clue). Majority are quality NBA players. 3 of the 9 achieving superstar status. Dennis Smith Jr remains the standout cautionary story for Collier.

I tried not to make the thresholds overly nuanced or prescriptive. This just generally represents high usage freshman that scored with a baseline level of efficiency, distributed the ball at a commensurate rate to their usage, had a baseline level of inside-out play where they slashed/drew fouls at a strong rate and still attempted a minimum number of 3s, and made some explosive plays on defense (steal %). Interestingly the list hardly changes if I remove the Steal % threshold.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#1708 » by greg4012 » Mon Jun 10, 2024 5:50 pm

twix2500 wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
twix2500 wrote:

That is not motor and heart. That is fundamentals and discipline. You can see he needs coaching, but as you can see when he got with Woodson and got coaching his game flourished. So its shown that he is receptive to coaching and has the talent. I do not think its anything to be alarmed about. Get him coaching that will teach him how to be a big man he should flourish.


I hope so. I can't come to conclusions on that as easily as you seem to be able to do from the computer screen. I don't think it's so easy to distinguish whether it's just teachable and whether the student is hungry to learn and compete. It's not like he showed up at Indiana and all problems were solved. These sort of plays are all over his Indiana tape.

You don't think he's ever been taught to account for the location of opposition in transition?

That's why the in-person evaluations and testimonials from trusted sources are extra important for Ware IMO.


A lot of players are not. That is result of coaching. Big men in general do not get great coaching. One because most coaches are not big men and do not understand the fine techniques of a big man oppose to a guard. The angles and fundamentals are different. This is not uncommon. You see it alot with non bigs as well especially freshmen. It is wrong to assume kids are being taught to be fundamental sound


Then it's settled. We now have full clarity on the Ware situation.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#1709 » by HeatIn5 » Mon Jun 10, 2024 5:51 pm

Yea I’d be pissed if we took a guy like Ware over a guy like Holmes.

If Topic drops because of the ACL, you run the card up.

I feel like we somehow end up with one of Topic, Holland, Dillingham
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#1710 » by MettaWorldPanda » Mon Jun 10, 2024 5:57 pm

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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#1711 » by Noodle Arm » Mon Jun 10, 2024 6:01 pm

There was a time nbadraft.net used to be decent (despite some ridiculous player comparisons), but my goodness...check out their recent mock draft. Look at the players drafted before and after the Heats pick. It's insane :crazy:

https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/?year-mock=2024
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#1712 » by HeatIn5 » Mon Jun 10, 2024 6:04 pm

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Honestly did not know that he's AC's son. That just moved him to the top of my Heat draft board.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#1713 » by HeatIn5 » Mon Jun 10, 2024 6:05 pm

No shot they are there -

Risacher
Sarr
Sheppard
Buzelis
Castle
Clingan

Duh, you take them, in this order -

Dillingham
Topic
Carter
Holland
Knecht
Williams


Guards -

Collier
McCain

Guys I like outside top 10 that I would consider in same/higher tier as Collier/McCain -

Tyler Smith (LOVE)
Tidjane Salaun
Terrance Shannon
Pacome Dadiet
DaRon Holmes
Tristan Da Silva



To be honest I love the idea of moving into the top 12 and getting one of the upper tier guys
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#1714 » by MettaWorldPanda » Mon Jun 10, 2024 6:32 pm

HeatIn5 wrote:
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Honestly did not know that he's AC's son. That just moved him to the top of my Heat draft board.



Also a true Miami kid. Went to Doral Academy.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#1715 » by twix2500 » Mon Jun 10, 2024 8:54 pm

greg4012 wrote:
twix2500 wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
I hope so. I can't come to conclusions on that as easily as you seem to be able to do from the computer screen. I don't think it's so easy to distinguish whether it's just teachable and whether the student is hungry to learn and compete. It's not like he showed up at Indiana and all problems were solved. These sort of plays are all over his Indiana tape.

You don't think he's ever been taught to account for the location of opposition in transition?

That's why the in-person evaluations and testimonials from trusted sources are extra important for Ware IMO.


A lot of players are not. That is result of coaching. Big men in general do not get great coaching. One because most coaches are not big men and do not understand the fine techniques of a big man oppose to a guard. The angles and fundamentals are different. This is not uncommon. You see it alot with non bigs as well especially freshmen. It is wrong to assume kids are being taught to be fundamental sound


Then it's settled. We now have full clarity on the Ware situation.


Well you cant see if a player is coachable. That happens in practice. And you cant see what a coach is coaching. You can get some hints if its a trend from that player or the players under that coach. Most coaching staff are not gonna talk negative about their players, if they do its a HUGE red sign. That is what was so glaring about Kevin Porter, USC coaches wanted him off the team and had nothing good to say about him. There was some leaks about Woods.

I am not saying Kel'El doesnt have a motor issue. But from those clips that was not an example of motor. That was example of BBIQ and lack of fundamentals drilled in him. That takes times, something you are not gonna see in most one and done players. Its very hard to coach a player fundamentals in one year. A player having the ability to read different defenses and scheme and for it to become instinctual where it is not something they have to think about, takes time. Plays from highschool to college is dramatically different and dramatically more complex let alone highschool to nba. If you are big player, its even more of a dramatic change because in highschool your size alone makes plays not the play itself. A player is getting very little fundamentals in highschool and especially AAU.

Those clips were examples of read and react to the right spots.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#1716 » by DayofMourning » Mon Jun 10, 2024 10:06 pm

So, we should beWare of Kel'el's mild motor?
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#1717 » by greg4012 » Mon Jun 10, 2024 10:26 pm

twix2500 wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
twix2500 wrote:
A lot of players are not. That is result of coaching. Big men in general do not get great coaching. One because most coaches are not big men and do not understand the fine techniques of a big man oppose to a guard. The angles and fundamentals are different. This is not uncommon. You see it alot with non bigs as well especially freshmen. It is wrong to assume kids are being taught to be fundamental sound


Then it's settled. We now have full clarity on the Ware situation.


Well you cant see if a player is coachable. That happens in practice. And you cant see what a coach is coaching. You can get some hints if its a trend from that player or the players under that coach. Most coaching staff are not gonna talk negative about their players, if they do its a HUGE red sign. That is what was so glaring about Kevin Porter, USC coaches wanted him off the team and had nothing good to say about him. There was some leaks about Woods.

I am not saying Kel'El doesnt have a motor issue. But from those clips that was not an example of motor. That was example of BBIQ and lack of fundamentals drilled in him. That takes times, something you are not gonna see in most one and done players. Its very hard to coach a player fundamentals in one year. A player having the ability to read different defenses and scheme and for it to become instinctual where it is not something they have to think about, takes time. Plays from highschool to college is dramatically different and dramatically more complex let alone highschool to nba. If you are big player, its even more of a dramatic change because in highschool your size alone makes plays not the play itself. A player is getting very little fundamentals in highschool and especially AAU.

Those clips were examples of read and react to the right spots.


I gotcha. I can see both dynamics at play in those clips. But I'm def not immune to confirmation bias. Stigmas from early draft reports or news pieces can be sticky.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#1718 » by IceColdCubano » Mon Jun 10, 2024 10:46 pm

DayofMourning wrote:So, we should beWare of Kel'el's mild motor?


Yeah its a red flag thrown around, of lots of tape of him taking plays off, not engaging or missing play calls, and lazy close outs throughout his tenure. Some say he has that lazy whiteside feel, and bad Defensive IQ even with all the measurables, which to Miami screams stay away.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#1719 » by lastb1ckman » Mon Jun 10, 2024 11:02 pm

IceColdCubano wrote:
DayofMourning wrote:So, we should beWare of Kel'el's mild motor?


Yeah its a red flag thrown around, of lots of tape of him taking plays off, not engaging or missing play calls, and lazy close outs throughout his tenure. Some say he has that lazy whiteside feel, and bad Defensive IQ even with all the measurables, which to Miami screams stay away.


If the Heat pick Ware he'll probably be a fan favorite or fan scapegoat within 4 years. It'll be up to him what happens. Cause people notice motor issues, and it sticks to your reputation amongst fans. Especially heat fans.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#1720 » by twix2500 » Mon Jun 10, 2024 11:52 pm

Who believes there is a player that will crack the starting lineup from this draft?

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