2024 Draft Thread - Part II

[jangles86]

Besides Sheppard, are there any other truly elite shooters in this draft?

At the end of the day, you have to be able to make baskets to win.

Obviously defense is critical as well but might more about things like
mindset and effort.

I guess we will see which side of the ball our FO prioritizes in whether
we end up with Castle or Sheppard. Or whether they think a team can't afford
obvious weak links on either side of the ball and they pick a more
all-around player.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/reed-sheppard

on paper, a player rated 4 stars for EF%, TS%, 3PT%, Steals and FG%
and 3 stars for blocks and DEF+/- sounds awfully good.

Will he be the guy a year from now that everyone will say should
have obviously been taken? Or once taken if demonstrated he can't
stay in front of anyone will people say that was obvious?

As others have mentioned, Knecht and McCain are two of the great shooters in this class. A few others that are arguably in there in the later part of the draft:

Jaylen Wells
Cam Spencer
Quentin Post

Surprised nobody is mentioning Jakobe Walter in the conversation for best shooters in this draft pool.

[jangles86]

Cody Williams arguably has the most upside of any player in this draft. I would be taking him over Rissacher Personally.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

He dated her for two or three years after the draft but ultimately married someone else.

According to her, they grew up together since elementary school. Ouch.

Sent from my SM-A146U using RealGM mobile app

[doclinkin]

Surprised nobody is mentioning Jakobe Walter in the conversation for best shooters in this draft pool.

Well he meets Dat's criteria for high volume at 6+ 3s taken per game. But only hit two per game. I don't think that puts in the conversation for 'best'.

[doclinkin]

So far according to Hoopshype and The Rookie Wire it looks like the Wizards have worked out:

Donovan Clingan
Cody Williams
Trentyn Flowers
Tristen Newton
Antonio Reeves
Taran Armstrong
Kenan Blackshear
John Newman III
Darius Brown II
Xavier Johnson
Pelle Larsson
John Newman III
Ugonna Onyenso

[closg00]

Castle seems to have this kind of character, great article about Jru Holiday.
https://sports.yahoo.com/2024-nba-finals-jrue-holiday-does-a-little-bit-of-everything-as-boston-grabs-2-0-series-lead-131031988.html

[closg00]

Cody Williams arguably has the most upside of any player in this draft. I would be taking him over Rissacher Personally.

I don’t know enough about Cody, but I have wondered if he might be a sneaky, under the radar gem, YODA has him as a 2nd rounder along with Risacher.

[badinage]

Does “YODA” analyze players beyond their current performance?

Because drafting is really projecting, and saying of a player — we feel confident that, given what he already can do, he can make leaps; and given what he can’t, we feel reasonably certain that he can address some of these weaknesses so that they’re no longer weak (and maybe even modest strengths).

[nate33]

Does “YODA” analyze players beyond their current performance?

Because drafting is really projecting, and saying of a player — we feel confident that, given what he already can do, he can make leaps; and given what he can’t, we feel reasonably certain that he can address some of these weaknesses so that they’re no longer weak (and maybe even modest strengths).

YODA takes into account player production relative to age, as well as player athleticism and anthro measurements. There really isn't much else you can do to objectively measure a player's ability to improve.

Obviously, YODA is not infallible. All YODA is saying that Cody does poorly on the metrics that have historically predicted good performance in the NBA. You can choose to ignore it if you like.

As I understand it, rebounding translates well from college to pros, and Cody's rebounding is horrific. Another metric that matters is assist rate and assist/turnover ratio, which, interestingly, predict defensive performance as much as offensive IQ. Again, Cody is pretty bad here with an A/TO ratio below 1.

[closg00]

I am convinced ATL will take Clingan at 1.

[Frichuela]

I am convinced ATL will take Clingan at 1.

This is possible, as both Sarr and -in particular- Risacher have significant flaws.

Broom's YODA rating of Risacher (second round) is very concerning...

https://www.bulletsforever.com/2024/6/11/24175704/nba-draft-2024-wings-shooting-guard-analysis-zaccharie-risacher-washington-wizards

[Frichuela]

I am convinced ATL will take Clingan at 1.

This is possible, as both Sarr and -in particular- Risacher have significant flaws.

Broom's YODA rating of Risacher (second round) is very concerning...

https://www.bulletsforever.com/2024/6/11/24175704/nba-draft-2024-wings-shooting-guard-analysis-zaccharie-risacher-washington-wizards

In all honesty, Broom's YODA assessment of Sarr is not bad:

"Alex Sarr — Teenaged French big who played professionally in Australia last season. Long, skinny, athletic. Good defender who blocks shots (3.4 per 40 minutes last season) and has a raw-but-promising offensive game. This is an archetype that feels familiar, even in the numbers. Top comps in YODA include Jaren Jackson Jr. and Evan Mobley."

So, if ATL picks Clingan, I'd expect Dawkins&co to pick Sarr, particularly as we are not in a rush and willing to afford a longer development for our players.

[payitforward]

Has anyone gone back to investigate how accurately Kevin's YODA assessments track players' NBA careers?
Not as far as I know.

[Dat2U]

Three players have made my 1st annual Jan Vesely 'Do NOT Draft under any circumstances' list:

Cody Williams ... His two best attributes is his length and efficiency on low usage. Yikes! Goes for long stretches without impact - basically extended cardio. Can't take contact right now. Gives me very strong Tony Snell vibes.

Zaccharie Risacher ... Height for position and 3 pt shooting are only plus traits. Streaky shooter who went cold for months at a time but shot a very good % on solid volume. Shot creation is nil. Handle is weak and not translatable. Frame is weak and has no lift ... can't explode at the rim = very poor finisher.

Stephon Castle ... Wants to play PG but lacks high level PG skill. Plays like an old school PG .... slow and methodical. Doesn't see the floor instinctively and tends to holds the ball. He makes basic reads, decent handle but more of a straight line driver. Has never shot it well from range. 30% on 11 3pfga in HS. I don't see the skill or decision making to put constant pressure on defenses. Will likely be forced to move off-the-ball.

[Frichuela]

On Sarr, an interesting comparison is 19-year old Porzingis who played in the ACB in Spain. Sarr's numbers at the NBL are quite comparable. Per 36:

Better in points, blocks, rebounds, assists, turnovers and fouls. The difference in blocks (3.1 vs. 1.7) and assists (2.1 vs. 0.9) is quite significant.
Worse in steals (0.9 vs. 1.5), 3 pt % (28% vs. 36% on similar attempts) and FTs (71% vs. 75%).

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=alexandre-sarr--kristaps-porzingis

[tontoz]

Three players have made my 1st annual Jan Vesely 'Do NOT Draft under any circumstances' list:

Cody Williams ... His two best attributes is his length and efficiency on low usage. Yikes! Goes for long stretches without impact - basically extended cardio. Can't take contact right now. Gives me very strong Tony Snell vibes.

Zaccharie Risacher ... Height for position and 3 pt shooting are only plus traits. Streaky shooter who went cold for months at a time but shot a very good % on solid volume. Shot creation is nil. Handle is weak and not translatable. Frame is weak and has no lift ... can't explode at the rim = very poor finisher.

Stephon Castle ... Wants to play PG but lacks high level PG skill. Plays like an old school PG .... slow and methodical. Doesn't see the floor instinctively and tends to holds the ball. He makes basic reads, decent handle but more of a straight line driver. Has never shot it well from range. 30% on 11 3pfga in HS. I don't see the skill or decision making to put constant pressure on defenses. Will likely be forced to move off-the-ball.

Disagree on Cody. People like to look at his numbers without taking into account multiple injuries. He might be the best wing in this draft finishing inside, and he did it without the ability to bully anyone. He has a variety of finishes with both hands and good handle. He has legit speed to go along with his length and skill off the dribble and that is a tough combination.

He played with a mask for awhile after catching an elbow to the face, missed 7 games with a wrist injury and also had an ankle injury. Not surprising he wasn't willing to go inside aggressively for rebounds.

What wing in this draft has such a variety of finishes inside?

Watch on YouTube

[payitforward]

Time to put YODA to bed. Here's Kevin's June 2020 YODA analysis of 2020 draft prospects: https://www.bulletsforever.com/2020/6/20/21297357/wizards-nba-draft-2020-preliminary

Some highlights:
at Center:
Isaiah Stewart -- R2
Vernon Carey Jr. -- late lottery, mid-first round.

Wings:
Joel Ayayi -- mid first round
Anthony Edwards -- mid first round

So far so good? Here are a few other highlights:

Payton Pritchard -- borderline undraftable (take late R2 ok)
Josh Green -- borderline undraftable (take late R2 ok)
Saddiq Bey -- borderline undraftable (take late R2 ok)

Completely undraftable: Deni Avdija, Tyrese Maxey, Cole Anthony, Jaden McDaniels.

Pretty good, huh?

[nate33]

Has anyone gone back to investigate how accurately Kevin's YODA assessments track players' NBA careers?
Not as far as I know.

Here's what YODA predicted for 2023:
https://www.bulletsforever.com/2023/6/16/23762624/the-yoda-guide-to-the-2023-nba-draft

Pretty darn impressive if you ask me. He nailed most of the late-picked gems like Whitmore, Jackson-Davis and Vukcevic. He was higher than consensus mocks on Podziemski, Coulibaly and Jaquez. (Those guys all went higher than mocked because smart teams use analytics like YODA.) His only real miss that I see was Derrick Lively. I guess he can be dinged for being less than enthusiastic about Brandon Miller.

Here's what YODA predicted for 2022:
https://www.bulletsforever.com/2022/6/23/23178376/the-2022-nba-draft-according-to-yoda

This turned out to be fairly accurate too, though not as good as his 2023 analysis. If someone picked Murray 1st, they'd sure as hell be disappointed they didn't grab Chet or Paulo. He did get Eason right, and Jalen Williams too. He was generally correct at being underwhelmed by Ivey and Agbaji and bullish on Dyson and Mathurin. He missed Jovic and Nembhard though.

[Frichuela]

Hawks please select Risacher, your wing of the future...

Read on Twitter

[DCZards]

Time to put YODA to bed. Here's Kevin's June 2020 YODA analysis of 2020 draft prospects: https://www.bulletsforever.com/2020/6/20/21297357/wizards-nba-draft-2020-preliminary

Some highlights:
at Center:
Isaiah Stewart -- R2
Vernon Carey Jr. -- late lottery, mid-first round.

Wings:
Joel Ayayi -- mid first round
Anthony Edwards -- mid first round

So far so good? Here are a few other highlights:

Payton Pritchard -- borderline undraftable (take late R2 ok)
Josh Green -- borderline undraftable (take late R2 ok)
Saddiq Bey -- borderline undraftable (take late R2 ok)

Completely undraftable: Deni Avdija, Tyrese Maxey, Cole Anthony, Jaden McDaniels.

Pretty good, huh?

Looks like a lot of misses to me--Edwards, Deni, Maxey, Anthony, McDaniels, Green.