10 years ago…

[Yallbecrazy]

There were a couple people who had him around ~10 on their big board.

really? who? Hollinger?

Yeah I would love some receipts on that one.

https://deanondraft.com/2014/06/26/mega-board/
#16 by Dean, and there was another 2+2'r who had him I think 7th or 8th on theirs IIRC. It boiled down to this guy is huge and has legit point guard skills and that is super rare and has value.

For those who don't know 2+2 used to be a forum way back in the day where a lot of poker players from different backgrounds discussed strategies.

There were a number of statisticians on the site in the 2003-2010 era and some lingered until about 2016 when the site started to fizzle and eventually die. Many tried to quantify value statistically in sports other than baseball which was the easiest to 'solve' with advanced statistics and eventually scouting was one of the last frontiers.
A number of posters went on to work in MLB, NBA and NHL front offices. The NBA was by far the biggest discussion sport and had the most interest and posts about it. Haraloubis Voulgaris was an early 2+2'r in the original gambling discussion and posted less and less eventually as the player value discussion grew.

I think NBA had the most discussions because it was a sport where the statiscians figured out that GMs at the time were much worse relatively than GMs in other sports. I think NBA GM was named the easiest / best job in the world in the early 2000s by the site in a semi satirical way.

[Michael Jordan]

I know this is about Bruno but Siakam and OG were drafted in the 20s and Fred obviously undrafted. Now they're set to make 40-50M on their new teams.

The point is that going for the project player like Siakam is never a bad idea just because Bruno didn't work out. Also going for the high floor pick worked out for OG and Fred just fine.

[ciueli]

Right the draft where they passed on Jokic twice. Obviously so did almost every other team including the Nuggets. Can’t help but wonder what if though.

I still don't undertand why Jokic even declared for the draft that year. He didn't even come over until the next season, and he really started to blow up in that last season he spent in Europe, he would have been a first round pick if he had waited a year.

[OakleyDokely]

Bruno was drafted 20th and basically busted yet he's still currently 31st in his draft class in win shares. Shows how many guys don't actually produce much in an average draft.

[YogurtProducer]

really? who? Hollinger?

Yeah I would love some receipts on that one.

https://deanondraft.com/2014/06/26/mega-board/
#16 by Dean, and there was another 2+2'r who had him I think 7th or 8th on theirs IIRC. It boiled down to this guy is huge and has legit point guard skills and that is super rare and has value.

For those who don't know 2+2 used to be a forum way back in the day where a lot of poker players from different backgrounds discussed strategies.

There were a number of statisticians on the site in the 2003-2010 era and some lingered until about 2016 when the site started to fizzle and eventually die. Many tried to quantify value statistically in sports other than baseball which was the easiest to 'solve' with advanced statistics and eventually scouting was one of the last frontiers.
A number of posters went on to work in MLB, NBA and NHL front offices. The NBA was by far the biggest discussion sport and had the most interest and posts about it. Haraloubis Voulgaris was an early 2+2'r in the original gambling discussion and posted less and less eventually as the player value discussion grew.

I think NBA had the most discussions because it was a sport where the statiscians figured out that GMs at the time were much worse relatively than GMs in other sports. I think NBA GM was named the easiest / best job in the world in the early 2000s by the site in a semi satirical way.

Pretty wild. He has to be one of like a few people in the entire world that had Jokic that high. Not even Denver did.

But, he also had Ennis at #9 and Exum at #2 so

Also kinda confused - GMs in the NBA are "worse" but it is the "easiest"? Seems contradictory

[Yallbecrazy]

Yeah I would love some receipts on that one.

https://deanondraft.com/2014/06/26/mega-board/
#16 by Dean, and there was another 2+2'r who had him I think 7th or 8th on theirs IIRC. It boiled down to this guy is huge and has legit point guard skills and that is super rare and has value.

For those who don't know 2+2 used to be a forum way back in the day where a lot of poker players from different backgrounds discussed strategies.

There were a number of statisticians on the site in the 2003-2010 era and some lingered until about 2016 when the site started to fizzle and eventually die. Many tried to quantify value statistically in sports other than baseball which was the easiest to 'solve' with advanced statistics and eventually scouting was one of the last frontiers.
A number of posters went on to work in MLB, NBA and NHL front offices. The NBA was by far the biggest discussion sport and had the most interest and posts about it. Haraloubis Voulgaris was an early 2+2'r in the original gambling discussion and posted less and less eventually as the player value discussion grew.

I think NBA had the most discussions because it was a sport where the statiscians figured out that GMs at the time were much worse relatively than GMs in other sports. I think NBA GM was named the easiest / best job in the world in the early 2000s by the site in a semi satirical way.

Pretty wild. He has to be one of like a few people in the entire world that had Jokic that high. Not even Denver did.

But, he also had Ennis at #9 and Exum at #2 so

Also kinda confused - GMs in the NBA are "worse" but it is the "easiest"? Seems contradictory

At the time all GMs were pretty bad and there weren't too many decisions you had to make over the course of a year. Easy to just do nothing and skate by while getting paid over a million a year.

[2019nbachamps]

That draft was buns. Can’t blame Masai here

[wegotthabeet]

really? who? Hollinger?

Yeah I would love some receipts on that one.

https://deanondraft.com/2014/06/26/mega-board/
#16 by Dean, and there was another 2+2'r who had him I think 7th or 8th on theirs IIRC. It boiled down to this guy is huge and has legit point guard skills and that is super rare and has value.

For those who don't know 2+2 used to be a forum way back in the day where a lot of poker players from different backgrounds discussed strategies.

There were a number of statisticians on the site in the 2003-2010 era and some lingered until about 2016 when the site started to fizzle and eventually die. Many tried to quantify value statistically in sports other than baseball which was the easiest to 'solve' with advanced statistics and eventually scouting was one of the last frontiers.
A number of posters went on to work in MLB, NBA and NHL front offices. The NBA was by far the biggest discussion sport and had the most interest and posts about it. Haraloubis Voulgaris was an early 2+2'r in the original gambling discussion and posted less and less eventually as the player value discussion grew.

I think NBA had the most discussions because it was a sport where the statiscians figured out that GMs at the time were much worse relatively than GMs in other sports. I think NBA GM was named the easiest / best job in the world in the early 2000s by the site in a semi satirical way.

This doesn’t surprise me actually. Dean is really good and certainly not afraid to veer away from the consensus boards, but like anyone he has just as many misses as he has hits. That’s inevitable when someone goes off script like this often. If you cherry pick his best calls he looks like one of the best talent evaluators ever.

I remember his board pre 2021. Without looking it up he had something like:

1. Mobley
2. Suggs
3. Barnes
4. Wagner
5. Sengun

As his top 5. That’s pretty close to what it should be now. Scottie is probably ahead of Mobley, but you have to have balls to not have neither the consensus 1 or 2 in your top 5 and then years later be right. And all his boards look like this. Not just 2021.

[wegotthabeet]

Spoiler:

Yeah I would love some receipts on that one.

https://deanondraft.com/2014/06/26/mega-board/
#16 by Dean, and there was another 2+2'r who had him I think 7th or 8th on theirs IIRC. It boiled down to this guy is huge and has legit point guard skills and that is super rare and has value.

For those who don't know 2+2 used to be a forum way back in the day where a lot of poker players from different backgrounds discussed strategies.

There were a number of statisticians on the site in the 2003-2010 era and some lingered until about 2016 when the site started to fizzle and eventually die. Many tried to quantify value statistically in sports other than baseball which was the easiest to 'solve' with advanced statistics and eventually scouting was one of the last frontiers.
A number of posters went on to work in MLB, NBA and NHL front offices. The NBA was by far the biggest discussion sport and had the most interest and posts about it. Haraloubis Voulgaris was an early 2+2'r in the original gambling discussion and posted less and less eventually as the player value discussion grew.

I think NBA had the most discussions because it was a sport where the statiscians figured out that GMs at the time were much worse relatively than GMs in other sports. I think NBA GM was named the easiest / best job in the world in the early 2000s by the site in a semi satirical way.

This doesn’t surprise me actually. Dean is really good and certainly not afraid to veer away from the consensus boards, but like anyone he has just as many misses as he has hits. That’s inevitable when someone goes off script like this often. If you cherry pick his best calls he looks like one of the best talent evaluators ever.

I remember his board pre 2021. Without looking it up he had something like:

1. Mobley
2. Suggs
3. Barnes
4. Wagner
5. Sengun

As his top 5. That’s pretty close to what it should be now. Scottie is probably ahead of Mobley, but you have to have balls to not have neither the consensus 1 or 2 in your top 5 and then years later be right. And all his boards look like this. Not just 2021.

now I had to look it up and yeah that's his top 5.

his top 10 was:

1. Mobley
2. Suggs
3. Barnes
4. Wagner
5. Sengun
6. Cade
7. Giddey
8. Green
9. Moody
10. Johnson

pretty hard to beat that. Trey Murphy @ 28 is a miss though and would be in the top 10 today.

his guiding principle in making these boards is simple. draft players with high floors, not just high upside.

he explains why is this article https://deanondraft.com/2023/02/01/the-downside-of-upside/ and it's a good summary of why so teams miss with high picks.

[BrunoSkull]

Biggest bust of all time imo.

[TravisScott55]

Swing and miss draft.

[YogurtProducer]

Spoiler:

https://deanondraft.com/2014/06/26/mega-board/
#16 by Dean, and there was another 2+2'r who had him I think 7th or 8th on theirs IIRC. It boiled down to this guy is huge and has legit point guard skills and that is super rare and has value.

For those who don't know 2+2 used to be a forum way back in the day where a lot of poker players from different backgrounds discussed strategies.

There were a number of statisticians on the site in the 2003-2010 era and some lingered until about 2016 when the site started to fizzle and eventually die. Many tried to quantify value statistically in sports other than baseball which was the easiest to 'solve' with advanced statistics and eventually scouting was one of the last frontiers.
A number of posters went on to work in MLB, NBA and NHL front offices. The NBA was by far the biggest discussion sport and had the most interest and posts about it. Haraloubis Voulgaris was an early 2+2'r in the original gambling discussion and posted less and less eventually as the player value discussion grew.

I think NBA had the most discussions because it was a sport where the statiscians figured out that GMs at the time were much worse relatively than GMs in other sports. I think NBA GM was named the easiest / best job in the world in the early 2000s by the site in a semi satirical way.

This doesn’t surprise me actually. Dean is really good and certainly not afraid to veer away from the consensus boards, but like anyone he has just as many misses as he has hits. That’s inevitable when someone goes off script like this often. If you cherry pick his best calls he looks like one of the best talent evaluators ever.

I remember his board pre 2021. Without looking it up he had something like:

1. Mobley
2. Suggs
3. Barnes
4. Wagner
5. Sengun

As his top 5. That’s pretty close to what it should be now. Scottie is probably ahead of Mobley, but you have to have balls to not have neither the consensus 1 or 2 in your top 5 and then years later be right. And all his boards look like this. Not just 2021.

now I had to look it up and yeah that's his top 5.

his top 10 was:

1. Mobley
2. Suggs
3. Barnes
4. Wagner
5. Sengun
6. Cade
7. Giddey
8. Green
9. Moody
10. Johnson

pretty hard to beat that. Trey Murphy @ 28 is a miss though and would be in the top 10 today.

his guiding principle in making these boards is simple. draft players with high floors, not just high upside.

he explains why is this article https://deanondraft.com/2023/02/01/the-downside-of-upside/ and it's a good summary of why so teams miss with high picks.

I think a lot of teams draft board they use and "make a list of who will be the top 10 players in 5 years" would look a lot different.

Teams take risks and try to hit home runs when they are 17-65 and need a superstar and picking in the lottery every year.

[wegotthabeet]

Spoiler:

This doesn’t surprise me actually. Dean is really good and certainly not afraid to veer away from the consensus boards, but like anyone he has just as many misses as he has hits. That’s inevitable when someone goes off script like this often. If you cherry pick his best calls he looks like one of the best talent evaluators ever.

I remember his board pre 2021. Without looking it up he had something like:

1. Mobley
2. Suggs
3. Barnes
4. Wagner
5. Sengun

As his top 5. That’s pretty close to what it should be now. Scottie is probably ahead of Mobley, but you have to have balls to not have neither the consensus 1 or 2 in your top 5 and then years later be right. And all his boards look like this. Not just 2021.

now I had to look it up and yeah that's his top 5.

his top 10 was:

1. Mobley
2. Suggs
3. Barnes
4. Wagner
5. Sengun
6. Cade
7. Giddey
8. Green
9. Moody
10. Johnson

pretty hard to beat that. Trey Murphy @ 28 is a miss though and would be in the top 10 today.

his guiding principle in making these boards is simple. draft players with high floors, not just high upside.

he explains why is this article https://deanondraft.com/2023/02/01/the-downside-of-upside/ and it's a good summary of why so teams miss with high picks.

I think a lot of teams draft board they use and "make a list of who will be the top 10 players in 5 years" would look a lot different.

Teams take risks and try to hit home runs when they are 17-65 and need a superstar and picking in the lottery every year.

Right, but some years don’t have any superstars seemingly.

His philosophy is that teams just need start with a framework of the worst case scenario. Like in this draft worst case scenario for Topic is he’s unplayable at the NBA level. Where as the worst case scenario for Sheppard is someone who should be an elite off ball shooter. So since Topic floor is much lower teams should draft Sheppard > Topic. Even if Topic could end up being better.

[YogurtProducer]

Spoiler:

now I had to look it up and yeah that's his top 5.

his top 10 was:

1. Mobley
2. Suggs
3. Barnes
4. Wagner
5. Sengun
6. Cade
7. Giddey
8. Green
9. Moody
10. Johnson

pretty hard to beat that. Trey Murphy @ 28 is a miss though and would be in the top 10 today.

his guiding principle in making these boards is simple. draft players with high floors, not just high upside.

he explains why is this article https://deanondraft.com/2023/02/01/the-downside-of-upside/ and it's a good summary of why so teams miss with high picks.

I think a lot of teams draft board they use and "make a list of who will be the top 10 players in 5 years" would look a lot different.

Teams take risks and try to hit home runs when they are 17-65 and need a superstar and picking in the lottery every year.

Right, but some years don’t have any superstars seemingly.

His philosophy is that teams just need start with a framework of the worst case scenario. Like in this draft worst case scenario for Topic is he’s unplayable at the NBA level. Where as the worst case scenario for Sheppard is someone who should be an elite off ball shooter. So since Topic floor is much lower teams should draft Sheppard > Topic. Even if Topic could end up being better.

For some teams that makes sense, for some it does not.

https://deanondraft.com/2023/02/01/the-downside-of-upside/

This article you posted he seems hyper focused on Kuminga and Wagner. Obv. it is quite old, but you would not even make that argument today. There is still a legitimate chance Kuminga ends up the better player. Based off last year, they are not as far off as that article makes it sound..

And even looking at his old boards, he has some impressive hits but he has just as many misses (Trae Young at 15 or Zhairie Smith at 5 in 2018, or Trevor Keels??? at 13 in 2022).

So sure, every philosophy has hits and misses. His philosophy seems to make more sense outside the top 5/10 or so picks, but inside the top 5/10 you need to be gunning for superstars, not role players.

Also - shoutout for him having Jontay Porter #2 in 2019

[wegotthabeet]

I think a lot of teams draft board they use and "make a list of who will be the top 10 players in 5 years" would look a lot different.

Teams take risks and try to hit home runs when they are 17-65 and need a superstar and picking in the lottery every year.

Right, but some years don’t have any superstars seemingly.

His philosophy is that teams just need start with a framework of the worst case scenario. Like in this draft worst case scenario for Topic is he’s unplayable at the NBA level. Where as the worst case scenario for Sheppard is someone who should be an elite off ball shooter. So since Topic floor is much lower teams should draft Sheppard > Topic. Even if Topic could end up being better.

For some teams that makes sense, for some it does not.

https://deanondraft.com/2023/02/01/the-downside-of-upside/

This article you posted he seems hyper focused on Kuminga and Wagner. Obv. it is quite old, but you would not even make that argument today. There is still a legitimate chance Kuminga ends up the better player. Based off last year, they are not as far off as that article makes it sound..

And even looking at his old boards, he has some impressive hits but he has just as many misses (Trae Young at 15 or Zhairie Smith at 5 in 2018, or Trevor Keels??? at 13 in 2022).

So sure, every philosophy has hits and misses. His philosophy seems to make more sense outside the top 5/10 or so picks, but inside the top 5/10 you need to be gunning for superstars, not role players.

Also - shoutout for him having Jontay Porter #2 in 2019

he's not saying teams shouldn't be gunning for superstars early in the draft.

he's saying that it's much easier and far more likely to go from valuable player/prospect with a well rounded game to superstar than raw player to superstar. approaching a draft from this standpoint would have teams inclined to draft someone like Haliburton > Hayes as opposed to vice versa.

but like i said before he's really hit or miss. just like anyone else making projections into the future. you can't account for unforeseen factors like injuries, situational opportunities like playing time, roster construct and environment around said player. some things are beyond impossible to predict like Len Bias, Jontay Porter type situations, etc..

[Yallbecrazy]

Spoiler:

now I had to look it up and yeah that's his top 5.

his top 10 was:

1. Mobley
2. Suggs
3. Barnes
4. Wagner
5. Sengun
6. Cade
7. Giddey
8. Green
9. Moody
10. Johnson

pretty hard to beat that. Trey Murphy @ 28 is a miss though and would be in the top 10 today.

his guiding principle in making these boards is simple. draft players with high floors, not just high upside.

he explains why is this article https://deanondraft.com/2023/02/01/the-downside-of-upside/ and it's a good summary of why so teams miss with high picks.

I think a lot of teams draft board they use and "make a list of who will be the top 10 players in 5 years" would look a lot different.

Teams take risks and try to hit home runs when they are 17-65 and need a superstar and picking in the lottery every year.

Right, but some years don’t have any superstars seemingly.

His philosophy is that teams just need start with a framework of the worst case scenario. Like in this draft worst case scenario for Topic is he’s unplayable at the NBA level. Where as the worst case scenario for Sheppard is someone who should be an elite off ball shooter. So since Topic floor is much lower teams should draft Sheppard > Topic. Even if Topic could end up being better.

Before he got hired by an unknown NBA team he had Topic as his runaway #1. He also liked Sheppard for some of his skills, but hated his archetype so wasn't sure what to make of him.

[wegotthabeet]

I think a lot of teams draft board they use and "make a list of who will be the top 10 players in 5 years" would look a lot different.

Teams take risks and try to hit home runs when they are 17-65 and need a superstar and picking in the lottery every year.

Right, but some years don’t have any superstars seemingly.

His philosophy is that teams just need start with a framework of the worst case scenario. Like in this draft worst case scenario for Topic is he’s unplayable at the NBA level. Where as the worst case scenario for Sheppard is someone who should be an elite off ball shooter. So since Topic floor is much lower teams should draft Sheppard > Topic. Even if Topic could end up being better.

Before he got hired by an unknown NBA team he had Topic as his runaway #1. He also liked Sheppard for some of his skills, but hated his archetype so wasn't sure what to make of him.

yeah that makes complete sense actually.

just used Topic/Sheppard as a random example without putting any thought into it, but Topic with a shot projects to be a star player and without it still has elite skills as a playmaker. his floor isn't unplayable, it's rotation player.