2024 Draft Thread - Part II

[payitforward]

Has anyone gone back to investigate how accurately Kevin's YODA assessments track players' NBA careers?
Not as far as I know.

...Here's what YODA predicted for 2022:
https://www.bulletsforever.com/2022/6/23/23178376/the-2022-nba-draft-according-to-yoda

This turned out to be fairly accurate too, though not as good as his 2023 analysis. If someone picked Murray 1st, they'd sure as hell be disappointed they didn't grab Chet or Paulo. He did get Eason right, and Jalen Williams too. He was generally correct at being underwhelmed by Ivey and Agbaji and bullish on Dyson and Mathurin. He missed Jovic and Nembhard though.

Wow.... I don't think that's particularly impressive. The opposite if anything -- as I posted a couple of hours ago.

Anyone ought to be able to get the top of a draft right -- or at least close. You or I could have predicted the top 10 closer to 100% than Yoda did.

After that point, any team that followed Yoda's lead would be badly disappointed.

Yoda put Kennedy Chandler at 15. He didn't make it out of his first year!
Yoda put Nembhard with a do not draft grade!
Yoda was wrong on Johnny obviously.
Yoda put Liddell at 14. He was drafted in R2.
Yoda put TyTy at 18. He's out of the league.
Yoda put Koloko at 20. Out of the league.
Yoda liked David Roddy (so did I). On his 2d team & on the way out of the league.
Yoda put Kendall Brown at 22 -- he was picked at 48 & has managed 50 minutes total in 2 years.
YODA put Ryan Rollins two picks above Christian Braun for heaven's sake!
Yoda rates Michael Foster #31. First pick in R2. He played 1 minute (literally) as a rookie & is out of the league.

Every single amateur 2022 mock draft on youtube was substantially more accurate than YODA. & I do mean all of them.

Of course, one could -- & no doubt should -- view YODA not as a mock draft tool but rather as an attempt at predictive assessment of a) how good prospects are & b) how likely prospects are to succeed in the league.

In which sense it is an utter failure. Completely useless. Or even worse, since it counsels you to look at box score numbers almost exclusively -- supplemented to an extremely minor degree by... nothing really -- Kevin's opinion.

I don't mean to pick on Kevin Broom -- it's hard to get this stuff right. What would make anyone think of him as more likely than anyone else to invent a "system" that works & is predictive, to even a slightly reliable degree?

[Dat2U]

In fairness, Kevin did a later run on the 2020 draft, which isn't quite as insanely bad: https://www.bulletsforever.com/2020/11/18/21571471/wizards-2020-nba-draft-according-to-yoda

Don't get me wrong, however: it's still just awful!

Even here, for example, Tyrese Maxey, Desmond Bane, Cole Anthony & Jaden McDaniels all get DO NOT DRAFT grades.

OTOH, Nate Hinton is the 6th best prospect in the entire draft class, while Malachi Flynn is the 7th best. Waaay better than the lowly Immanuel Quickley all the way down at 32.

Naturally, Hinton & Flynn are both better draft choices than Deni Avdija! But, hey, that's ok, b/c they're also better than Anthony Edwards.

Daniel Otoru ("a lot to like here..."), while not as good as Vernon Carey Jr., is of course much better than... oh forget it.

Anthony Edwards is a case study in why stats based analysis does not always work. A guy who for all accounts and purposes ... treated NCAA games as extended practice. Who's effort and focus clearly came and went his one season at Georgia. Multiple stories of him not learning plays ... but of course he gets to league and suddenly the work ethic and leadership are top notch.

I don't know how you can know how a guy like that will turn out without those in person interviews and background checks.

I'm pretty sure I had him solidly in the teens based on what he did in college despite recognizing he was one of the best athletes at the SG I had seen at the time.

The draft always has a good lesson to teach every single year.

[pancakes3]

Reed's working out with former Bullet and current Clippers color announcer Don MacLean. Don moonlights as a draft workout guy with Proactive Sports Performance. They've worked out some high profile names, like Jaime Jaquez and Coby White.

Don said that Reed's the only guy out of the hundreds of guys that he's worked out over the past 13 years that's gone 25-25 around the 3 point arc. There's been about a dozen guys that's gone 24-25, but nobody's ever done the perfect round around the arc except for Reed.

Thinks he's a top 3 draft pick.

[dckingsfan]

Three players have made my 1st annual Jan Vesely 'Do NOT Draft under any circumstances' list:

Stephon Castle ... Wants to play PG but lacks high level PG skill. Plays like an old school PG .... slow and methodical. Doesn't see the floor instinctively and tends to holds the ball. He makes basic reads, decent handle but more of a straight line driver. Has never shot it well from range. 30% on 11 3pfga in HS. I don't see the skill or decision making to put constant pressure on defenses. Will likely be forced to move off-the-ball.

Once again, we have a very different opinion of what makes for a quality NBA PG.

The player Castle says he models his game after, Jrue Holiday, plays like an "old school PG"— methodical, deliberate, crafty. He’s on the verge of winning his second NBA championship. (BTW, Holiday shot 30% from 3 in his one year at UCLA. Very similar to what Castle shot at UConn.)

I liked Jalen Brunson because he was an “old school PG.” I argued that he was at worst an early second round pick. You said Brunson was "too slow" and shouldn’t be drafted.

My questions with Brunson were all athletic based. He was the 30th pick of draft - so guess what? Alot of folks had questions too.

My questions with Castle are mostly skill based.

***I can't overstate the difference there and please don't conflate playing slow with being athletically slow.***

Castle sees the floor slowly. He takes time to make reads and he doesn't have great tempo or pace IMO. I don't think a methodical, hold-the-ball PG works unless he's incredibly skilled like a Luka. Castle is decently skilled for a wing... for a PG he's got some catching up to do.

I see Castle as a guard alongside the primary offensive guard starting his career. Your point is spot on though. He is several years from being the primary ball handler (IMO). Is the question "will he get there"? A note though, I would want to trade down to get Castle... so there is that.

For this year assuming Kuz gets traded (big if) then something like this...

Poole, Butler
Castle, Kispert
Deni, Bilal
Bilal, Vukcevic
Bagley, Holmes

This would give Castle time to develop his game. And yes, that team loses lots of games ensuring a lottery pick in '25.

A bit of a derailer but... we have 13 under contract for this year + our two picks. If we can't trade down, I can see us just adding the two FRPs and being done with it going into the trade deadline to move Kuz (and the expiring contracts).

[dobrojim]

I would not be upset if we took Sheppard. Not at all. There are lots of reasons
he could work out compared to the number of reasons he could bust.
25-25 is pretty impressive even if it is in a non defender situation.
And watching the playoffs this year, it's increasingly clear how important
3 point shooting is, BOS' game 2 finals W notwithstanding.

[dckingsfan]

I would not be upset if we took Sheppard. Not at all...

Yep. He is just your PG of the future. A bit of short-term angst working him in with Poole... but we really shouldn't care as we are looking (hopefully) well into the future.

[payitforward]

...A bit of a derailer but... we have 13 under contract for this year + our two picks. If we can't trade down, I can see us just adding the two FRPs and being done with it going into the trade deadline to move Kuz (and the expiring contracts).

Nah... We have 9 fully guaranteed contracts at this writing: Poole, Kuzma, Avdija, Bagley, Coulibaly, Kispert, Davis, Baldwin, Vukcevic (the last w/ a club option we'll obviously pick up).

In addition, Richaun Holmes has a player option, which he's sure to exercise -- taking us to 10.

Shamet's contract is not guaranteed. Neither are Butler's nor Omoroyi's.

I don't think we would keep either Shamet or Omoruyi over a rookie with any kind of potential. Assuming we do want to keep Butler, we have 4 open spots for rookies.

For that matter, we are so far under the lux tax line that if we decided there was a 5th guy we simply had to have, we could waive Davis or Baldwin or even Holmes without getting into lux tax trouble. Not to mention that the guy we take at 51 may start out on a 2-way deal.

More generally, is this a time to make conservative moves? Why?

[dckingsfan]

...A bit of a derailer but... we have 13 under contract for this year + our two picks. If we can't trade down, I can see us just adding the two FRPs and being done with it going into the trade deadline to move Kuz (and the expiring contracts).

Nah... We have 9 fully guaranteed contracts at this writing: Poole, Kuzma, Avdija, Bagley, Coulibaly, Kispert, Davis, Baldwin, Vukcevic (the last w/ a club option we'll obviously pick up).

In addition, Richaun Holmes has a player option, which he's sure to exercise -- taking us to 10.

Shamet's contract is not guaranteed. Neither are Butler's nor Omoroyi's.

I don't think we would keep either Shamet or Omoruyi over a rookie with any kind of potential. Assuming we do want to keep Butler, we have 4 open spots for rookies.

For that matter, we are so far under the lux tax line that if we decided there was a 5th guy we simply had to have, we could waive Davis or Baldwin or even Holmes without getting into lux tax trouble. Not to mention that the guy we take at 51 may start out on a 2-way deal.

More generally, is this a time to make conservative moves? Why?

Happy to be wrong here! Thanks!

Yes, Holmes is going to exercise his option. Yes to Butler.

And happily wrong on both Shamet and Omoruyi, it does indeed show the 2024-25 season as non-guaranteed.

That is indeed only 11 players so... we could add 4 rookies (I could see us adding 3).

[closg00]

Has anyone gone back to investigate how accurately Kevin's YODA assessments track players' NBA careers?
Not as far as I know.

...Here's what YODA predicted for 2022:
https://www.bulletsforever.com/2022/6/23/23178376/the-2022-nba-draft-according-to-yoda

This turned out to be fairly accurate too, though not as good as his 2023 analysis. If someone picked Murray 1st, they'd sure as hell be disappointed they didn't grab Chet or Paulo. He did get Eason right, and Jalen Williams too. He was generally correct at being underwhelmed by Ivey and Agbaji and bullish on Dyson and Mathurin. He missed Jovic and Nembhard though.

Wow.... I don't think that's particularly impressive. The opposite if anything -- as I posted a couple of hours ago.

Anyone ought to be able to get the top of a draft right -- or at least close. You or I could have predicted the top 10 closer to 100% than Yoda did.

After that point, any team that followed Yoda's lead would be badly disappointed.

Yoda put Kennedy Chandler at 15. He didn't make it out of his first year!
Yoda put Nembhard with a do not draft grade!
Yoda was wrong on Johnny obviously.
Yoda put Liddell at 14. He was drafted in R2.
Yoda put TyTy at 18. He's out of the league.
Yoda put Koloko at 20. Out of the league.
Yoda liked David Roddy (so did I). On his 2d team & on the way out of the league.
Yoda put Kendall Brown at 22 -- he was picked at 48 & has managed 50 minutes total in 2 years.
YODA put Ryan Rollins two picks above Christian Braun for heaven's sake!
Yoda rates Michael Foster #31. First pick in R2. He played 1 minute (literally) as a rookie & is out of the league.

Every single amateur 2022 mock draft on youtube was substantially more accurate than YODA. & I do mean all of them.

Of course, one could -- & no doubt should -- view YODA not as a mock draft tool but rather as an attempt at predictive assessment of a) how good prospects are & b) how likely prospects are to succeed in the league.

In which sense it is an utter failure. Completely useless. Or even worse, since it counsels you to look at box score numbers almost exclusively -- supplemented to an extremely minor degree by... nothing really -- Kevin's opinion.

I don't mean to pick on Kevin Broom -- it's hard to get this stuff right. What would make anyone think of him as more likely than anyone else to invent a "system" that works & is predictive, to even a slightly reliable degree?

In fairness to Ty Ty, he is a 22 y/o development project with the Bucks, and is on a two-way.

[Frichuela]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=GWeuz7j_sc5cBYZzdD92Tw

[AFM]

Which one is he?

[Frichuela]

Which one is he?

Tall dude with the hoodie!

[dckingsfan]

Which one is he?

[payitforward]

...That is indeed only 11 players so... we could add 4 rookies (I could see us adding 3).

We could add 7 rookies -- 4 to the regular roster plus 3 more as 2-way players.

Will has 3 picks at present: if it stays that way, I feel certain we'll add 3 guys. In fact, I'll be surprised if fewer than 4 rookies play for us.

Keep in mind what the model is:

OKC '19-20
4 rookies
2 second year players
1 third year player

OKC '20-21
4 rookies
5 second-year players
1 third year player

OKC 21-22
9 rookies
(they combined to play 45% of all minutes!)

[payitforward]

...
Yoda put TyTy at 18. He's out of the league....

In fairness to Ty Ty, he is a 22 y/o development project with the Bucks, and is on a two-way.

Nope.

TyTy was on a 2 way with Milwaukee all last year -- played 51 minutes total on the season. But that's in the past. He's not with them any more.

Of course they may sign him to a 2 way again. For the coming season. & I hope they do. I've got nothing against TyTy Washington.

I liked Ryan Rollins too, btw. The Bucks also had him on a 2 way contract starting in February this year.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=GWeuz7j_sc5cBYZzdD92Tw

At this point, I'm really starting to believe Atlanta might actually pass on Sarr. I definitely seem to be hearing Risacher and Clingan at 1 as much as Sarr, if not more.

[J-Ves]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=GWeuz7j_sc5cBYZzdD92Tw

At this point, I'm really starting to believe Atlanta might actually pass on Sarr. I definitely seem to be hearing Risacher and Clingan at 1 as much as Sarr, if not more.

I have to admit ATL taking Sarr is a little awkward for them assuming they are still trying to compete with Young as their star. Both Clingan and Risacher figure to be closer to NBA ready from the jump

[dckingsfan]

...That is indeed only 11 players so... we could add 4 rookies (I could see us adding 3).

We could add 7 rookies -- 4 to the regular roster plus 3 more as 2-way players.

Will has 3 picks at present: if it stays that way, I feel certain we'll add 3 guys. In fact, I'll be surprised if fewer than 4 rookies play for us.

Keep in mind what the model is:

OKC '19-20
4 rookies
2 second year players
1 third year player

OKC '20-21
4 rookies
5 second-year players
1 third year player

OKC 21-22
9 rookies
(they combined to play 45% of all minutes!)

Almost need to trade down to do that (in a meaningful way), purchase a 2nd round pick or two or make a trade or two.

I would be really happy if we "at least" added 3 rookies, especially if we did that three years running.

[dckingsfan]

At this point, I'm really starting to believe Atlanta might actually pass on Sarr. I definitely seem to be hearing Risacher and Clingan at 1 as much as Sarr, if not more.

I have to admit ATL taking Sarr is a little awkward for them assuming they are still trying to compete with Young as their star. Both Clingan and Risacher figure to be closer to NBA ready from the jump

Right. I am guessing they either take a wing (to compete with Young) or trade Young. It doesn't make much sense otherwise?

[closg00]

...
Yoda put TyTy at 18. He's out of the league....

In fairness to Ty Ty, he is a 22 y/o development project with the Bucks, and is on a two-way.

Nope.

TyTy was on a 2 way with Milwaukee all last year -- played 51 minutes total on the season. But that's in the past. He's not with them any more.

Of course they may sign him to a 2 way again. For the coming season. & I hope they do. I've got nothing against TyTy Washington.


I liked Ryan Rollins too, btw. The Bucks also had him on a 2 way contract starting in February this year.

It doesn’t matter much, but Washington is still with the Bucks on a two-way, and playing on the G-League affiliate.
https://wisconsin.gleague.nba.com/roster