2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (BOS leads 3-0)

[ITYSL]

Dang, Luka's offensive rating is the second lowest of all Mavs starters. I guess he's being carried on offense. Thanks for your insights.

[HotRocks34]

Also, I can say anecdotally from doing the research for those clips that opponents do seem to be having a tougher time scoring on Luka than other Mavs, so the BBREF individual DRTG makes sense to me.

Luka is a big guy. It's easier to shoot over shorter guys and it's easier to muscle smaller guys.

[mfletcher4177]

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=BrianSuttererMD

I think we are down playing the injury to KP. This looks absolutely horrible. Especially for someone with foot and lower leg injuries in the past. I never want to see injury but I just don't see how he keeps going with this sort of injury. Think about trying to play on a rolled ankle but much, much worse.

That being said, I think KP and Jrue have been the biggest thorns in our side. You eliminate KP and his rim protection, rebounding, floor spacing, hot shooting... This is a different Boston team. We are talking about 20 points off the floor with opening up the lane for Luka and Kyrie.

You always want to beat a team at it's best, and this injury sucks. Especially as he was a former Maverick.

You take away the Celtics best +/- player and open the lane for Luka and Kyrie, I think you are going to have some issues. KP didn't play in the games where the Heat hung around, the Cavs hung around and the Pacers hung around. Dallas is better than all 3 from what we've seen in the playoffs.

If we get the Boston Celtics that showed up against their other 3 series, I think that's where you see a change in this series. Nobody expected KP to come out and play the way he did after his injury. He's been absolutely lights out and has outplayed Kyrie, while coming off the bench.

I hope he is ok and able to give it a go but let's not act like this isn't a big deal. Losing 20 points, rebounds, defense and floor spacing. That's huge.

If there is any sort of comparison in this series, it would be like the Mavericks losing Kyrie.. Except KP was outplaying Kyrie.

[HotRocks34]

Dang, Luka's offensive rating is the second lowest of all Mavs starters. I guess he's being carried on offense. Thanks for your insights.

You're a joke. No more attention.

[Chanel Bomber]

False.



There's plenty more data and highlights to back me up.

I've gone over this elsewhere so no need to repeat it here.

Using your screenshot and your logic, what this graphic also shows is that Kyrie has been great on offense this series, because the team's offensive rating with him off the court is the lowest of anyone. Derp.

Basketball-reference's defensive rating is not the same as the NBA, and its results tilt heavily towards boxscore stats (stocks), which are not necessarily indicative of defensive impact. All Mavs are low on stocks through 2 games except Luka who averages 3 steals (and 3 stocks total) a game, which explains why he'd #1 in this stat.

His overall defense however has been poor and this stat doesn't have the complexity to properly capture it. It's basically unreliable, which is why nobody uses it.

[HotRocks34]

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=BrianSuttererMD

I think we are down playing the injury to KP. This looks absolutely horrible. Especially for someone with foot and lower leg injuries in the past. I never want to see injury but I just don't see how he keeps going with this sort of injury. Think about trying to play on a rolled ankle but much, much worse.

That being said, I think KP and Jrue have been the biggest thorns in our side. You eliminate KP and his rim protection, rebounding, floor spacing, hot shooting... This is a different Boston team. We are talking about 20 points off the floor with opening up the lane for Luka and Kyrie.

You always want to beat a team at it's best, and this injury sucks. Especially as he was a former Maverick.

You take away the Celtics best +/- player and open the lane for Luka and Kyrie, I think you are going to have some issues. KP didn't play in the games where the Heat hung around, the Cavs hung around and the Pacers hung around. Dallas is better than all 3 from what we've seen in the playoffs.

If we get the Boston Celtics that showed up against their other 3 series, I think that's where you see a change in this series. Nobody expected KP to come out and play the way he did after his injury. He's been absolutely lights out and has outplayed Kyrie, while coming off the bench.

I hope he is ok and able to give it a go but let's not act like this isn't a big deal. Losing 20 points, rebounds, defense and floor spacing. That's huge.

If there is any sort of comparison in this series, it would be like the Mavericks losing Kyrie.. Except KP was outplaying Kyrie.

I've seen one doc say he can play through it and another day he's done for the series.

I hope he can go.

[HotRocks34]

Basketball-reference's defensive rating is not the same as the NBA

I know, and I know you're wrong as regards Luka. I did the research myself.

[Chanel Bomber]

Basketball-reference's defensive rating is not the same as the NBA

I know, and I know you're wrong as regards Luka. I did the research myself.

And what's your research?

Bball ref's defensive rating is unreliable and pretty much unusable due to its lack of complexity and over-reliance on boxscore stats, yet you are using it.

It's an outdated metric that doesn't come close to capturing defensive impact.

[HotRocks34]

Basketball-reference's defensive rating is not the same as the NBA

I know, and I know you're wrong as regards Luka. I did the research myself.

And what's your research?

Bball ref's defensive rating is unreliable and pretty much unusable due to its lack of complexity and over-reliance on boxscore stats, yet you are using it.

It's an outdated metric that doesn't come close to capturing defensive impact.

The research is posted. Multiple data points and clips.

Now I'm going to avoid the fallacy of wasting any more of my time on this particular discussion, since it's going nowhere.

Take care.

[HotRocks34]

Just reposting this because I don't recall where I put it before.

On Court Team DRTG through G2. Luka best among the starters.

This goes along with the "Team DRTG worst with Luka Off Court" and "Luka best BBREF individual DRTG" metrics, as well as the 16 defensive clips I posted in the other thread.


relax

[HotRocks34]

In the first 3 pages of this thread, starting near the bottom of page 1, I compiled and posted 16 clips of Luka playing good/smart defense in G1 and G2.

Clips are a bit grainy. Sorry about that. Easier to see if you enlarge although they do pixelate then.

viewtopic.php?t=2385262

[GeorgeSears]

Porzingis injury could be a huge. Especially if he misses multiple games. I'm expecting Tatum to break out of his slump.

[zshawn10]

There’s a whole compliation someone posted here of Luka getting blown by for a minute straight

You get points for blow by a player?

I have a thread with 16 clips of Luka playing good defense in Games 1 and 2:

viewtopic.php?t=2385262#p113638696

We're past the silliness.

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=nTTEj4pYTl_o_im2gtZyQg

[HotRocks34]

Luka playoff DRAPTOR vs Jaylen Brown's. Higher positive is better.

Can't isolate this for The Finals as far as I know but it gives you a sense of what his level has been recently. Through G2 I believe.

[Chanel Bomber]

I know, and I know you're wrong as regards Luka. I did the research myself.

And what's your research?

Bball ref's defensive rating is unreliable and pretty much unusable due to its lack of complexity and over-reliance on boxscore stats, yet you are using it.

It's an outdated metric that doesn't come close to capturing defensive impact.

The research is posted. Multiple data points and clips.

Now I'm going to avoid the fallacy of wasting any more of my time on this particular discussion, since it's going nowhere.

Take care.

The off-court defensive rating only tells the story of how lineups without Luka fared defensively (in 15 minutes). It says absolutely nothing about the Mavs' defense with Luka, let alone about Luka's defense.

And Bball-ref defensive rating is basically unusable, for the reasons I mentioned.

So those two "data points" are basically irrelevant, and don't support your conclusion at all.

Selective clips of a couple successful plays also don't count for much, especially as we have a more longer compilation of plays that shows he got repeatedly burnt on drives in game 2.

[HotRocks34]

You get points for blow by a player?

I have a thread with 16 clips of Luka playing good defense in Games 1 and 2:

viewtopic.php?t=2385262#p113638696

We're past the silliness.

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=nTTEj4pYTl_o_im2gtZyQg

Doesn't matter. I have 16 misses/steals/etc against Luka from the first two games. And I could get more, I'm sure.

That's why you have to do the research and look at the total picture to understand what is actually taking place. That's what I did.

Clips and eye test are just one piece of the puzzle.

[zshawn10]

I have a thread with 16 clips of Luka playing good defense in Games 1 and 2:

viewtopic.php?t=2385262#p113638696

We're past the silliness.

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=nTTEj4pYTl_o_im2gtZyQg

Doesn't matter. I have 16 misses/steals/etc against Luka from the first two games. And I could get more, I'm sure.

That's why you have to do the research and look at the total picture to understand what is actually taking place. That's what I did.

Clips and eye test are just one piece of the puzzle.

lol ok my guy who’s past all the silliness allegedly

[Bobbymcgee]

Do or die game 3 for the Mavs.

I think the only way the Mavs beat the Celtics in game 3 is by their role players showing up big on offense at home. Otherwise, I think the Mavs are cooked.

[HotRocks34]

Luka has the second best Mavs DRAPTOR for the playoffs, behind only Lively. Through G2.

His defense has been good throughout the postseason, so that continuing in the Finals isn't surprising.

[Handlez]

Luka has the second best Mavs DRAPTOR for the playoffs, behind only Lively. Through G2.

His defense has been good throughout the postseason, so that continuing in the Finals isn't surprising.

Damn why you wrecking these boys with facts.

You a cold mfer.