2024 Draft Thread - Part II

[Frichuela]

Increasing rumblings of Clingan to ATL at #1…

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[tontoz]

The ringer is reporting that the blazers are looking to move up in the draft.

https://www.blazersedge.com/2024/6/12/24177022/nba-draft-2024-rumors-blazers-rockets-trade-anfernee-simons-scoot-henderson

[dckingsfan]

The ringer is reporting that the blazers are looking to move up in the draft.

https://www.blazersedge.com/2024/6/12/24177022/nba-draft-2024-rumors-blazers-rockets-trade-anfernee-simons-scoot-henderson

Wahooooo

But

Now, Portland already has the number seven pick. Maybe they’re the team that wants to trade up. Maybe Portland’s trying to do, you know, #7 and #14 to go all the way up to #1. Or maybe they’re trying to do #7 and #14 to #3 and then get to #1 or something like that.

no #2

[AFM]

Bet we keep the pick and draft Risacher.

That reminds me, someone needs to make a poll before draft day with our predictions for what the FO will do on draft nite.

[gesa2]

Or a poll:
What the FO will do
What we really hope they don’t do
What we would do

[dckingsfan]

Bet we keep the pick and draft Risacher.

That reminds me, someone needs to make a poll before draft day with our predictions for what the FO will do on draft nite.

That would be you

But it will be hard to do this dynamically if there are trades...

Edit: didn't see gesa's post.

[jangles86]

Is it true rissachers hands measured very small at the combine?

[closg00]

Kevin's FRP rated Shooting Guards:

Reed Sheppard, Kentucky — Shooter! Elite efficiency — 55.5% on twos, 52.1% on threes (not a typo), 83.1% from the free throw line. Plus, he rebounded decently for a guard (5.7 per 40 minutes), did some playmaking (6.2 assists per 40), averaged more than two assists for every turnover, averaged a block per 40, and led the draft class in steals by half a steal per 40 minutes. His agility scores were well above average at the combine, and he tied for the best vertical leap. The concern? He’s just 6-2 and he has short arms. It could he’s too small to defend effectively at the NBA level. That’s a legit worry point, even though the statistical markers for athleticism agree with his outstanding combine performance.

Devin Carter, Providence — Good size, long wingspan, agile, incredible leaper. Probably the best athlete in this year’s draft. His production was good — just under 10 rebounds per 40 minutes, 4.1 assists per 40, plus 56.3% on twos, 37.7% from three, and 74.9% on 5.9 free throw attempts per 40. More turnovers than are ideal (1.3 assist-to-turnover ratio). And he’s 22 years old. He’s 13th in Tankathon’s consensus mock draft, and there should be better prospects available at two. If the Wizards trade back, he could be an interesting pick.

Stephon Castle, Connecticut — All-around contributor who provided his team with some rebounds, assists, and defense. Good size and solid agility scores at the combine. His leaping measurements were below average, though not enough to lose him points in YODA. The statistical markers for athleticism were mixed — solid two-point percentage and offensive rebounding vs. relatively low steals and blocks. Bigger worry point: 26.7% on threes, and he took just 3.3 per 40.

Rob Dillingham, Kentucky — Excellent three-point shooter (44.4%) who struggled inside the arc (49.5%), likely due to being so small. Despite the size, he rebounded (5.0 per 40) and generated assists (6.6 per 40). He also produced turnovers and a TON of fouls (4.5 per 40). The fouls are a signal of being overwhelmed on defense, which is worrisome as he tries to move up a level.

Nikola Topic, Red Star (International) — Impressive production in a strong international league. He’d rank higher but for the partially torn anterior cruciate ligament in his knee. Good height but a relatively short wingspan. Still, he shot 60.3% on twos and 87.8% from the free throw line. The two-point percentage is an indicator of athleticism, and the high free throw percentage suggests his 30.6% three-point shooting could be an aberration. He also averaged 8.0 assists per 40 and had an ast/tov ratio of 2.4-to-1. There wasn’t much defensive production from Topic, and he fouled a lot.

KJ Simpson, Colorado — Short (just 6-0 tall) with excellent agility and vertical leap. Superb shooting (43.4% from deep and 87.6% on free throws) plus good rebounding and assists. Like Dillingham, Simpson shot below 50% from two-point range and didn’t tally impressive steal or block numbers. Unlike Dillingham, Simpson didn’t foul much. The consensus has him as a second round pick. YODA thinks he’s worth a first.

Jamal Shead, Houston — Another diminutive PG with excellent quickness, though without the otherworldly hops. The assists and steals are impressive, and he even grabbed some rebounds. The poor two-point percentage (45.6%) and shooting from three (30.9%) combined with the size and age (he’s 22) are real concerns. He’s supposed to be a second round pick, but YODA has him with a late first grade.

https://www.bulletsforever.com/2024/6/14/24178146/nba-draft-2024-the-strength-of-the-draft-is-in-the-backcourt#comments

[Dark Faze]

I don't care who the pick is. I mean, eventually I will, but I'm mainly judging the FO on how they manage their current assets. They've got to find a way to consolidate current assets (including cap space) to get more draft capital in this draft. Even though the draft sucks, we've got an opportunity to get more lottery tickets. Picks will be harder to come by in better drafts.

[nate33]

Increasing rumblings of Clingan to ATL at #1…

The situation among the top 4 is really interesting, if the rumors are to be believed.

Atlanta wants Clingan but also seems like they're okay with Risacher and Sarr. It allows them to contemplate a trade-down while still getting a guy they're happy with.

Washington presumably wants Sarr. I don't know if we value anyone else in the same tier - enough to play some games in a bid to get more value in a trade-down

Houston probably wants Sarr or Sheppard, and figures one is sure to fall to them. Maybe they'd be open to a trade-down too.

San Antonio really wants Risacher, or at least there are rumors that Wemby is pushing for him. And it sounds like their desire for him is enough to motivate them to trade up.

Scenario 1:
Atlanta just drafts the guy they want: Clingan.
Washington drafts Sarr and is happy.
Houston drafts Sheppard and is happy.
San Antonio drafts Risacher and is happy.

Scenario 2:
Atlanta drafts Clingan
Washington drafts Risacher, because we like him and/or we want to generate leverage with San Antonio
Houston drafts Sheppard
San Antonio trades #4 and a 2025 1st to us for Risacher and we draft Sarr at #4.

Scenario 3:
Atlanta drafts Clingan
Washington draft Risacher, because we like him and/or we want to generate leverage with San Antonio
Houston drafts Sarr
San Antonio drafts Sheppard. They're a little disappointed in not landing Risacher, but Sheppard is a good fit and they''re not motivated to trade up with us.

Scenario 4:
Atlanta drafts Risacher and immediately trades him to SA for #4 and their 2025 pick back.
Washington drafts Sarr and is happy.
Houston drafts Sheppard and is happy
Atlanta drafts Clingan at #4 and is happy.

Scenario 5:
Atlanta drafts Risacher and immediately trades him to SA for #4 and their 2025 pick back.
Washington drafts Clingan to create leverage with Atlanta
Houston drafts Sarr
Atlanta has to trade up from #4 to get Clingan and has to give us the pick the package they just got from San Antonio

Scenario 6:
Atlanta drafts Risacher and immediately trades him to SA for #4 and their 2025 pick back.
Washington drafts Clingan to create leverage with Atlanta
Houston drafts Sheppard
Atlanta settles for Sarr. Maybe we can work out a 1 for 1 swap of Clingan for Sarr and be happy that we get Sarr on a cheaper contract.

In all scenarios, we could have had Sarr. We still end up with him in all but Scenario 3 (where we get Risacher) and maybe Scenario 6. And in Scenarios 2 and 5, we also land a 2025 FRP. I'm guessing Scenario 4 is the most likely scenario. I don't see us playing games with Atlanta in Scenario 5 and 6 because Atlanta might just call our bluff and take Sarr for themselves and look to make some other trade for a veteran center instead of Clingan.

[nate33]

Interesting analysis from a guy who watched every one of Buzelis 3-point attempts:

Matas Buzelis advanced 3 point shooting statistics and observations after watching all 121 attempts.

- Picture perfect mechanics, high release, soft ball.
- Frequently missed short, strength/fatigue a factor?
- Mostly spot ups or slips out of screening action.
- low volume movement shots off screens, promising.
- Very few bad misses, the makes are very pure .
- Comfortable shooting over closeouts, hard to block.
- Drew two 4-point plays, should have had four more.
- Settles for jump shots too often.

Overall, I buy the shot long term. I think it's a question of strength and fatigue rather than anything mechanical which could be why he shot it better in high school with the shorter line.

Doesn't project as a pull-up shooter, but can spot up and has the requisite ball skills to make defense pay for closing out hard. Shooting is the absolute swing skill for Buzelis, without it teams will sag off and he won't have the explosiveness to get to his spots.

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[gambitx777]

I want no part of buzelis

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[closg00]

FWIW, YODA ranks Matas as a 2nd rounder

[gambitx777]

FWIW, YODA ranks Matas as a 2nd rounder

The strongest I've ever felt about not taking a player. Was Jan Vesley. Matas is around that level.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[J-Ves]

Increasing rumblings of Clingan to ATL at #1…

The situation among the top 4 is really interesting, if the rumors are to be believed.

Atlanta wants Clingan but also seems like they're okay with Risacher and Sarr. It allows them to contemplate a trade-down while still getting a guy they're happy with.

Washington presumably wants Sarr. I don't know if we value anyone else in the same tier - enough to play some games in a bid to get more value in a trade-down

Houston probably wants Sarr or Sheppard, and figures one is sure to fall to them. Maybe they'd be open to a trade-down too.

San Antonio really wants Risacher, or at least there are rumors that Wemby is pushing for him. And it sounds like their desire for him is enough to motivate them to trade up.

Scenario 1:
Atlanta just drafts the guy they want: Clingan.
Washington drafts Sarr and is happy.
Houston drafts Sheppard and is happy.
San Antonio drafts Risacher and is happy.

Scenario 2:
Atlanta drafts Clingan
Washington drafts Risacher, because we like him and/or we want to generate leverage with San Antonio
Houston drafts Sheppard
San Antonio trades #4 and a 2025 1st to us for Risacher and we draft Sarr at #4.

Scenario 3:
Atlanta drafts Clingan
Washington draft Risacher, because we like him and/or we want to generate leverage with San Antonio
Houston drafts Sarr
San Antonio drafts Sheppard. They're a little disappointed in not landing Risacher, but Sheppard is a good fit and they''re not motivated to trade up with us.

Scenario 4:
Atlanta drafts Risacher and immediately trades him to SA for #4 and their 2025 pick back.
Washington drafts Sarr and is happy.
Houston drafts Sheppard and is happy
Atlanta drafts Clingan at #4 and is happy.

Scenario 5:
Atlanta drafts Risacher and immediately trades him to SA for #4 and their 2025 pick back.
Washington drafts Clingan to create leverage with Atlanta
Houston drafts Sarr
Atlanta has to trade up from #4 to get Clingan and has to give us the pick the package they just got from San Antonio

Scenario 6:
Atlanta drafts Risacher and immediately trades him to SA for #4 and their 2025 pick back.
Washington drafts Clingan to create leverage with Atlanta
Houston drafts Sheppard
Atlanta settles for Sarr. Maybe we can work out a 1 for 1 swap of Clingan for Sarr and be happy that we get Sarr on a cheaper contract.

In all scenarios, we could have had Sarr. We still end up with him in all but Scenario 3 (where we get Risacher) and maybe Scenario 6. And in Scenarios 2 and 5, we also land a 2025 FRP. I'm guessing Scenario 4 is the most likely scenario. I don't see us playing games with Atlanta in Scenario 5 and 6 because Atlanta might just call our bluff and take Sarr for themselves and look to make some other trade for a veteran center instead of Clingan.

I think in all scenarios where Sarr falls to 2 we take him and don’t get cute with trade downs. I could even see us packaging 2, 26 to move up 1 spot to prevent anyone from leap-froging us similar to what we did to get Bilal last year. ATL might take that trade as “free” value and then continue to try to leverage Risacher to the Spurs

[nate33]

I think in all scenarios where Sarr falls to 2 we take him and don’t get cute with trade downs. I could even see us packaging 2, 26 to move up 1 spot to prevent anyone from leap-froging us similar to what we did to get Bilal last year. ATL might take that trade as “free” value and then continue to try to leverage Risacher to the Spurs

I think you're probably right.

I think the only scenario where we might "get cute" would be if Atlanta drafts Sarr. With Sarr already gone, the stakes of us screwing up a trade gambit drop dramatically. Do we really have a strong preference between the remaining guys on our board (presumably Risacher, Sheppard, Castle and Clingan)? We would have the flexibility to go ahead and draft Risacher in the hopes of working out a tradedown deal with San Antonio. Worst case scenario is that San Antonio doesn't bite and we end up with Risacher, who we apparently like anyhow.

[tontoz]

If Portland offered 7 and 14 for the 2nd pick I would take it without hesitation regardless of what Atlanta does.

[dckingsfan]

I think in all scenarios where Sarr falls to 2 we take him and don’t get cute with trade downs. I could even see us packaging 2, 26 to move up 1 spot to prevent anyone from leap-froging us similar to what we did to get Bilal last year. ATL might take that trade as “free” value and then continue to try to leverage Risacher to the Spurs

I think you're probably right.

I think the only scenario where we might "get cute" would be if Atlanta drafts Sarr. With Sarr already gone, the stakes of us screwing up a trade gambit drop dramatically. Do we really have a strong preference between the remaining guys on our board (presumably Risacher, Sheppard, Castle and Clingan)? We would have the flexibility to go ahead and draft Risacher in the hopes of working out a tradedown deal with San Antonio. Worst case scenario is that San Antonio doesn't bite and we end up with Risacher, who we apparently like anyhow.

I guess this comes down to the FO board. Do they rate the top 7 equally if you will. If so, the trade is a no brainer. If they have a big drop-off from say 4 up, then no. Man, I would love to be a fly on the wall when they are discussing this (I wonder who they really want - they play it so close to the vest).

But, no way (would I - opinion) package 2 & 26 to move to 1, 2 & 51 sure.

[nate33]

If Portland offered 7 and 14 for the 2nd pick I would take it without hesitation regardless of what Atlanta does.

Yeah, but I think a Portland trade would take place BEFORE we make our selection, so there really isn't any gamesmanship involved. That's just a simple question of whether we think #7 plus #14 is more valuable than the best player on our board after Atlanta picks.

[Benjammin]

This would be my ideal scenario.
Atlanta takes Sarr
San Antonio trades up to 2 for Risacher, giving up 4 and 8 and 34, and the Wiz give them 2, 26, and 51.
Portland trades up to 4 for Clingan and trades 7 and 14 for 4 and 34.
That would leave the Wizards with 7,8, and 14.

At 7 and 8 I would be looking at Dillingham, Holland, Buzelis.
At 14---Collier, Dadiet, Edey, Topic.

Obviously it's not going to happen but that would be a nice talent infusion while not impacting the critical 24-25 tank season.
Alternatively, only do one of the deals and trade Kuzma for a mid first round pick.

This is the way/make it so/may it be so.