What player mocked in the top 10 falls out of the lottery?

[JustBuzzin]

Holland gives me Cam Reddish vibes. I can see him dropping out of the top 10.

[Catchall]

Holland or Topic. To draft Topic, a team has to want a lead guard and also be willing to redshirt him for more or less his entire rookie season. That's near Sam Hinkie territory.

[clyde21]

Dilly with his size concerns can turn off a lot of teams, and Kentucky guards tend to drop in the draft a bit (Maxey, IQ, Keldon) for some reason, so he's my pick here even tho he should be a top 5 guy

[dolphinatik]

Holland might fall imo. Not sure I whittle take him at 15. Incredible athlete but a project all around.

[7r5ur]

Dilly with his size concerns can turn off a lot of teams, and Kentucky guards tend to drop in the draft a bit (Maxey, IQ, Keldon) for some reason, so he's my pick here even tho he should be a top 5 guy

But I feel like this is the year for the over-correction. Sheppard and Dillingham could conceivably go 3/4. I know I tend to feel like whatever I think they are, they're probably a bit better than that given the history with SGA, Booker, Maxey, etc.

[SeattleJazzFan]

Holland might fall imo. Not sure I whittle take him at 15. Incredible athlete but a project all around.

more than an incredible athlete. holland averaged 20 ppg in the g league as a young HS to pro player in that league.

holland will still be 18 when he gets drafted. he is being slept on.

[babyjax13]

Dillingham for sure.

All the news about Devin Carter moving up is bad news for him.
Also, with Topic falling into that range I could see Dillingham falling all the way down to Sacramento and replacing Monk pretty easily.

I think one of the Kentucky guards is the right choice given the Carter news. Interested to see how things shake out!

[HotelVitale]

Dilly with his size concerns can turn off a lot of teams, and Kentucky guards tend to drop in the draft a bit (Maxey, IQ, Keldon) for some reason, so he's my pick here even tho he should be a top 5 guy

But I feel like this is the year for the over-correction. Sheppard and Dillingham could conceivably go 3/4. I know I tend to feel like whatever I think they are, they're probably a bit better than that given the history with SGA, Booker, Maxey, etc.

Guys, three players outperforming their draft position doesn't mean teams are actually undervaluing Kentucky guards as some kind of systemic thing. Maxey was a meh offensive player in college and became a massively better shotmaker and finisher than he showed in at UK, IQ just looked like a bench 3D guy, etc. They were pretty appropriately ranked and just became really good versions of themselves (in Maxey's case a truly epic version) after a few years in the NBA.

Players get looked at individually and in detail, where they went to school for a year or two is barely an afterthought. Seems like it's only lazy announcers who are like 'well the only thing I know about these two guys are that they went to the same school, so I'll talk about them like they're tied at the hip for life.' Plus UK has had a zillion players drafted in the last 20 years so there's been all sorts of outcomes.

[7r5ur]

Dilly with his size concerns can turn off a lot of teams, and Kentucky guards tend to drop in the draft a bit (Maxey, IQ, Keldon) for some reason, so he's my pick here even tho he should be a top 5 guy

But I feel like this is the year for the over-correction. Sheppard and Dillingham could conceivably go 3/4. I know I tend to feel like whatever I think they are, they're probably a bit better than that given the history with SGA, Booker, Maxey, etc.

Guys, three players outperforming their draft position doesn't mean teams are actually undervaluing Kentucky guards as some kind of systemic thing. Maxey was a meh offensive player in college and became a massively better shotmaker and finisher than he showed in at UK, IQ just looked like a bench 3D guy, etc. They were pretty appropriately ranked and just became really good versions of themselves (in Maxey's case a truly epic version) after a few years in the NBA.

Players get looked at individually and in detail, it's only lazy announcers who are like 'well the only thing I know about these guys are that they went to the same school, so I'll talk about them like they're tied at the hip for life.' Plus UK has had a zillion guys drafted in the last 20 years so there's been all sorts of outcomes.

I mentioned 3 but there are a lot more (hence the "etc" part). Those are just extreme examples of guys over-performing relative to where they were drafted.

Shai, Booker, Maxey, Fox, Murray, Wallace, Monk, Quickley, Herro... That's just some of the active guys that you could argue have been as good or in many cases way better than basically all of the projections on them. It's 9 Kentucky guards going back 8 drafts. I would say that's a pretty damn good hit rate.

[clyde21]

Dilly with his size concerns can turn off a lot of teams, and Kentucky guards tend to drop in the draft a bit (Maxey, IQ, Keldon) for some reason, so he's my pick here even tho he should be a top 5 guy

But I feel like this is the year for the over-correction. Sheppard and Dillingham could conceivably go 3/4. I know I tend to feel like whatever I think they are, they're probably a bit better than that given the history with SGA, Booker, Maxey, etc.

Guys, three players outperforming their draft position doesn't mean teams are actually undervaluing Kentucky guards as some kind of systemic thing. Maxey was a meh offensive player in college and became a massively better shotmaker and finisher than he showed in at UK, IQ just looked like a bench 3D guy, etc. They were pretty appropriately ranked and just became really good versions of themselves (in Maxey's case a truly epic version) after a few years in the NBA.

Players get looked at individually and in detail, where they went to school for a year or two is barely an afterthought. Seems like it's only lazy announcers who are like 'well the only thing I know about these two guys are that they went to the same school, so I'll talk about them like they're tied at the hip for life.' Plus UK has had a zillion players drafted in the last 20 years so there's been all sorts of outcomes.

Maxey was a top 10 talent, I had him 7th. He was definitely under ranked

[ItsDanger]

Might be more than one. Topic seems likely to drop due to injury risk. Holland worked for Lakers at #17, he's probably dropping a lot.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Might be more than one. Topic seems likely to drop due to injury risk. Holland worked for Lakers at #17, he's probably dropping a lot.

just because a player works out for teams picking later does not mean he's dropping. Maybe the Lakers just want to kick the tires and if they like what they see, at a position of dire need, they can package the #17 plus Vanderbilt, Hood-Schifino or Rui to move up to get him.

I could easily see the Rockets, Hornets, Spurs and Kings be willing trade partners.

[ItsDanger]

Might be more than one. Topic seems likely to drop due to injury risk. Holland worked for Lakers at #17, he's probably dropping a lot.

just because a player works out for teams picking later does not mean he's dropping. Maybe the Lakers just want to kick the tires and if they like what they see, at a position of dire need, they can package the #17 plus Vanderbilt, Hood-Schifino or Rui to move up to get him.

I could easily see the Rockets, Hornets, Spurs and Kings be willing trade partners.

We'll see.

[wemby]

Might be more than one. Topic seems likely to drop due to injury risk. Holland worked for Lakers at #17, he's probably dropping a lot.

just because a player works out for teams picking later does not mean he's dropping. Maybe the Lakers just want to kick the tires and if they like what they see, at a position of dire need, they can package the #17 plus Vanderbilt, Hood-Schifino or Rui to move up to get him.

I could easily see the Rockets, Hornets, Spurs and Kings be willing trade partners.

Spurs aren't moving back from 8 to 17 for that bag of hot garbage.

[HotelVitale]

But I feel like this is the year for the over-correction. Sheppard and Dillingham could conceivably go 3/4. I know I tend to feel like whatever I think they are, they're probably a bit better than that given the history with SGA, Booker, Maxey, etc.

Guys, three players outperforming their draft position doesn't mean teams are actually undervaluing Kentucky guards as some kind of systemic thing. Maxey was a meh offensive player in college and became a massively better shotmaker and finisher than he showed in at UK, IQ just looked like a bench 3D guy, etc. They were pretty appropriately ranked and just became really good versions of themselves (in Maxey's case a truly epic version) after a few years in the NBA.

Players get looked at individually and in detail, where they went to school for a year or two is barely an afterthought. Seems like it's only lazy announcers who are like 'well the only thing I know about these two guys are that they went to the same school, so I'll talk about them like they're tied at the hip for life.' Plus UK has had a zillion players drafted in the last 20 years so there's been all sorts of outcomes.

Maxey was a top 10 talent, I had him 7th. He was definitely under ranked

Do you guys really think it’s because they’re UK guys though? In some of those cases it’s because they didn’t have enough time or touches to show what they could do (others were just late bloomers). But this year that doesn’t seem like the case with Dillingham and Sheppard. Do you all think it is?

(Also if you had Maxey top 7, Clyde, I’d love to see your scouting report. I frickin adore Maxey but he’s become great by constantly, all game is very game hitting really tough shots/finishes and almost nothing but tough shots/finishes. None of his raw tools are particularly good and he’s undersized, and he’s also not been very good at the thing he showed out best at at UK (on ball defense).)

[HotelVitale]

But I feel like this is the year for the over-correction. Sheppard and Dillingham could conceivably go 3/4. I know I tend to feel like whatever I think they are, they're probably a bit better than that given the history with SGA, Booker, Maxey, etc.

Guys, three players outperforming their draft position doesn't mean teams are actually undervaluing Kentucky guards as some kind of systemic thing. Maxey was a meh offensive player in college and became a massively better shotmaker and finisher than he showed in at UK, IQ just looked like a bench 3D guy, etc. They were pretty appropriately ranked and just became really good versions of themselves (in Maxey's case a truly epic version) after a few years in the NBA.

Players get looked at individually and in detail, it's only lazy announcers who are like 'well the only thing I know about these guys are that they went to the same school, so I'll talk about them like they're tied at the hip for life.' Plus UK has had a zillion guys drafted in the last 20 years so there's been all sorts of outcomes.

I mentioned 3 but there are a lot more (hence the "etc" part). Those are just extreme examples of guys over-performing relative to where they were drafted.

Shai, Booker, Maxey, Fox, Murray, Wallace, Monk, Quickley, Herro... That's just some of the active guys that you could argue have been as good or in many cases way better than basically all of the projections on them. It's 9 Kentucky guards going back 8 drafts. I would say that's a pretty damn good hit rate.

Same question--do you really think that's because they went to UK? I feel like scouts would get fired immediately if they were like 'so we don't necessarily like this guy's size and athleticism this high, and the shooting numbers were definitely concerning (even if a small one-year sample), but he attended Kentucky for 7 months and wore the same uniform as other recent successes so I went ahead and bumped him up 10 spots. Something in the water, right?'

I'm not trying to be smart or anything, that seems to me to be exactly what you're saying. Seems like the causality and correlation is way off there.

[7r5ur]

Guys, three players outperforming their draft position doesn't mean teams are actually undervaluing Kentucky guards as some kind of systemic thing. Maxey was a meh offensive player in college and became a massively better shotmaker and finisher than he showed in at UK, IQ just looked like a bench 3D guy, etc. They were pretty appropriately ranked and just became really good versions of themselves (in Maxey's case a truly epic version) after a few years in the NBA.

Players get looked at individually and in detail, it's only lazy announcers who are like 'well the only thing I know about these guys are that they went to the same school, so I'll talk about them like they're tied at the hip for life.' Plus UK has had a zillion guys drafted in the last 20 years so there's been all sorts of outcomes.

I mentioned 3 but there are a lot more (hence the "etc" part). Those are just extreme examples of guys over-performing relative to where they were drafted.

Shai, Booker, Maxey, Fox, Murray, Wallace, Monk, Quickley, Herro... That's just some of the active guys that you could argue have been as good or in many cases way better than basically all of the projections on them. It's 9 Kentucky guards going back 8 drafts. I would say that's a pretty damn good hit rate.

Same question--do you really think that's because they went to UK? I feel like scouts would get fired immediately if they were like 'so we don't necessarily like this guy's size and athleticism this high, and the shooting numbers were definitely concerning (even if a small one-year sample), but he attended Kentucky for 7 months and wore the same uniform as other recent successes so I went ahead and bumped him up 10 spots. Something in the water, right?'

I'm not trying to be smart or anything, that seems to me to be exactly what you're saying. Seems like the causality and correlation is way off there.

I think it has to do with Calipari's system and the players he recruits. Also because Kentucky players tend to play with a pretty loaded team of 1-and-done guys, which I think limits what each can show individually to some degree. So often they have more to their game than they show at UK.

[basketballto]

Trusting Kentucky's ability to recruit a star guard who can succeed yearly has paid off. I think it will in this flat draft as well. Nothing wrong with outsourcing your draft team from Kentucky for free if you want a guard.

[76ciology]

Wont happen. But for me it should be Stephon Castle. Why would you draft a guard that is a non scorer and poor shooter with a top 10 pick?