Cavs/Spurs/Wiz

[louc1970]

Based on Mitchell resigning in Cleveland and Garland asking out:

Wizards send Avdija, Holmes (or Bagley)
Wizards receive Graham, Johnson, #8
Wizards move Avdija but return with Johnson and a PG. They also receive #8 to go after a falling Clingan, Knecht or Dillingham to pair with #2 (Sarr/Risacher).

Spurs send Graham, Johnson, #8, 25 FRP (Chicago)
Spurs receive Garland
Spurs can use #4 to pick up BPA and pair Wemby with Garland and Vassell. A good young nucleus. Options at 4 become Buzelis, Holland, Clingan, Knecht.

Cavs send Garland
Cavs receive Avdija, Holmes, 25 FRP
With Mitchell resigning Cavs bring in another strong defender in Avdija, a backup center in either Holmes or Bagley. This allows Mobley to remain a PF.

[Texas Chuck]

8 for Deni seems reasonable, though Wizards fans here won't accept #1 for him so good luck. I don't like Keldon for them at all with them already paying Kuzma. That's not really a value add for them.

Spurs not paying enough for Garland.
Cavs not getting enough for Garland. The money savings and fit are nice. But its a pretty significant step down in caliber of player. I wouldn't do that for the minimal incentive they get.

Spurs really need to add more value here. Keldon Johnson is not the value you are assigning him.

[babyjax13]

Washington or San Antonio should be cut out of this. Deni is quite a bit more valuable than the 8th pick in this terrible draft, and I can't imagine the torture of watching a team with Poole, Johnson, amd Kuzma.

[louc1970]

8 for Deni seems reasonable, though Wizards fans here won't accept #1 for him so good luck. I don't like Keldon for them at all with them already paying Kuzma. That's not really a value add for them.

Spurs not paying enough for Garland.
Cavs not getting enough for Garland. The money savings and fit are nice. But its a pretty significant step down in caliber of player. I wouldn't do that for the minimal incentive they get.

Spurs really need to add more value here. Keldon Johnson is not the value you are assigning him.

Johnson’s value is basically salary. Couldn’t see adding Vassell.

Feel free to make the adjustments to satisfy.

[jbk1234]

8 for Deni seems reasonable, though Wizards fans here won't accept #1 for him so good luck. I don't like Keldon for them at all with them already paying Kuzma. That's not really a value add for them.

Spurs not paying enough for Garland.
Cavs not getting enough for Garland. The money savings and fit are nice. But its a pretty significant step down in caliber of player. I wouldn't do that for the minimal incentive they get.

Spurs really need to add more value here. Keldon Johnson is not the value you are assigning him.

Johnson’s value is basically salary. Couldn’t see adding Vassell.

Feel free to make the adjustments to satisfy.

I don't think the Spurs get Garland without Vassell. I suspect the draft comes and goes and Garland is still on the Cavs roster as there's no real catalyst to force a trade before then.

[mhd]

Based on Mitchell resigning in Cleveland and Garland asking out:

Wizards send Avdija, Holmes (or Bagley)
Wizards receive Graham, Johnson, #8
Wizards move Avdija but return with Johnson and a PG. They also receive #8 to go after a falling Clingan, Knecht or Dillingham to pair with #2 (Sarr/Risacher).

Spurs send Graham, Johnson, #8, 25 FRP (Chicago)
Spurs receive Garland
Spurs can use #4 to pick up BPA and pair Wemby with Garland and Vassell. A good young nucleus. Options at 4 become Buzelis, Holland, Clingan, Knecht.

Cavs send Garland
Cavs receive Avdija, Holmes, 25 FRP
With Mitchell resigning Cavs bring in another strong defender in Avdija, a backup center in either Holmes or Bagley. This allows Mobley to remain a PF.

You realize that Deni is only 4 months older than Knecht right? In this terrible draft, I'm not trading Deni for the 8th pick.

[TGW]

You realize that Deni is only 4 months older than Knecht right? In this terrible draft, I'm not trading Deni for the 8th pick.

It's just common sense. Only a fool would trade Deni for anyone in this horrible draft.

[nate33]

Expecting to get Deni for the #8 pick in this draft is utterly preposterous. I'm going to keep posting this:

Since February 8th, Deni has averaged 19.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists on a .604 TS% while being one of the better defensive forwards in the league. And they're not just empty stats. The team was just -1.2 per 100 possessions in those minutes, so Deni had the talentless Wizards playing like a 37-win team while he was on the floor. And FWIW, that production wasn't based on fluke 3-point shooting. He shot just .356 from 3-point range during that stretch, below his season average of .374.

Compare that production to three other All-Stars this season:
Player A: 19.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, .566 TS%, will get paid a max contract in 2025 for $42M a year.
Player B: 22.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, 5.4 assists, .545 TS%, will get paid a max contract in 2026 for $45M a year
Player C: 23.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, .580 TS%, will be paid $57M a year over the next 5 years
D.Avdija: 19.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, .604 TS%, will be paid $13M a year over the next 4 years.

Spoiler:

Player A is Scottie Barnes
Player B is Paulo Banchero
Player C is Jaylen Brown

Deni just turned 23 and appears to still be improving.

[jbk1234]

Expect to get Deni for the #8 pick in this draft is utterly preposterous. I'm going to keep posting this:

Since February 8th, Deni has averaged 19.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists on a .604 TS% while being one of the better defensive forwards in the league. And they're not just empty stats. The team was just -1.2 per 100 possessions in those minutes, so Deni had the talentless Wizards playing like a 37-win team while he was on the floor. And FWIW, that production wasn't based on fluke 3-point shooting. He shot just .356 from 3-point range during that stretch, below his season average of .374.

Compare that production to three other All-Stars this season:
Player A: 19.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, .566 TS%, will get paid a max contract in 2025 for $42M a year.
Player B: 22.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, 5.4 assists, .545 TS%, will get paid a max contract in 2026 for $45M a year
Player C: 23.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, .580 TS%, will be paid $57M a year over the next 5 years
D.Avdija: 19.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, .604 TS%, will be paid $13M a year over the next 4 years.

Spoiler:

Player A is Scottie Barnes
Player B is Paulo Banchero
Player C is Jaylen Brown

Deni just turned 23 and appears to still be improving.

*Since February 8th* is a monumental qualifier which is why you're not getting the response you expect. There's a long line of prospects who performed well in the last couple months of a season only to revert to the mean the following year. If the Wizards don't want to move Deni for No. 8, I get it. Heck, I might even agree given how much of a crap shoot any draft is, but the idea that it's some ridiculous suggestion is too much.

[nate33]

Expect to get Deni for the #8 pick in this draft is utterly preposterous. I'm going to keep posting this:

Since February 8th, Deni has averaged 19.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists on a .604 TS% while being one of the better defensive forwards in the league. And they're not just empty stats. The team was just -1.2 per 100 possessions in those minutes, so Deni had the talentless Wizards playing like a 37-win team while he was on the floor. And FWIW, that production wasn't based on fluke 3-point shooting. He shot just .356 from 3-point range during that stretch, below his season average of .374.

Compare that production to three other All-Stars this season:
Player A: 19.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, .566 TS%, will get paid a max contract in 2025 for $42M a year.
Player B: 22.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, 5.4 assists, .545 TS%, will get paid a max contract in 2026 for $45M a year
Player C: 23.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, .580 TS%, will be paid $57M a year over the next 5 years
D.Avdija: 19.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, .604 TS%, will be paid $13M a year over the next 4 years.

Spoiler:

Player A is Scottie Barnes
Player B is Paulo Banchero
Player C is Jaylen Brown

Deni just turned 23 and appears to still be improving.

*Since February 8th* is a monumental qualifier which is why you're not getting the response you expect. There's a long line of prospects who performed well in the last couple months of a season only to revert to the mean the following year. If the Wizards don't want to move Deni for No. 8, I get it. Heck, I might even agree given how much of a crap shoot any draft is, but the idea that it's some ridiculous suggestion is too much.

Nobody is saying it's an absolute certainty that Deni will continue to post these numbers in perpetuity. But when a 23-year-old posts these numbers for half a season in an apparently sustainable manner (i.e. without fluke 3-point shooting), teams aren't inclined to trade that player. The reasonable default is to assume that the young player is breaking out; not that we should ignore the good play, assume it's a fluke, and rush to trade him the next summer.

YOU may think it's a fluke, and there is a non-zero chance that you are right. But the Wizards sure as hell aren't going to value him as if the good play is a fluke.

[toooskies]

Expect to get Deni for the #8 pick in this draft is utterly preposterous. I'm going to keep posting this:

Since February 8th, Deni has averaged 19.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists on a .604 TS% while being one of the better defensive forwards in the league. And they're not just empty stats. The team was just -1.2 per 100 possessions in those minutes, so Deni had the talentless Wizards playing like a 37-win team while he was on the floor. And FWIW, that production wasn't based on fluke 3-point shooting. He shot just .356 from 3-point range during that stretch, below his season average of .374.

Compare that production to three other All-Stars this season:
Player A: 19.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, .566 TS%, will get paid a max contract in 2025 for $42M a year.
Player B: 22.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, 5.4 assists, .545 TS%, will get paid a max contract in 2026 for $45M a year
Player C: 23.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, .580 TS%, will be paid $57M a year over the next 5 years
D.Avdija: 19.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, .604 TS%, will be paid $13M a year over the next 4 years.

Spoiler:

Player A is Scottie Barnes
Player B is Paulo Banchero
Player C is Jaylen Brown

Deni just turned 23 and appears to still be improving.

*Since February 8th* is a monumental qualifier which is why you're not getting the response you expect. There's a long line of prospects who performed well in the last couple months of a season only to revert to the mean the following year. If the Wizards don't want to move Deni for No. 8, I get it. Heck, I might even agree given how much of a crap shoot any draft is, but the idea that it's some ridiculous suggestion is too much.

I'd say Deni even if he regresses half of his progress (league average 57% TS% and 35% 3P%, 16/8/4, very good defense) is still worth around #8, maybe more counting the contract, and worth a lot to a good team. If you're optimistic about Avdija's future you hold out for #4, or #8 with a pick on top at least.

The question is how soon Washington thinks they'll be competitive again. If Avdija turns out to be very good and soon, he might interfere with their plan to bottom out long enough to get some franchise players (which are not obviously apparent in this draft). In which case they might trade Avdija to make themselves worse and increase future lottery odds when real franchise players come around in the draft. And that's been Washington's problem, they don't have franchise guys. (I don't think Avdija ever gets to that level-- maybe his upside is fringe all-star at his peak-- but he's still young.)

Whereas if they roll the dice with Holland or Dillingham or whoever is left at #8, it's going to be awhile before those players are at their full potential, but that may align with Washington's future franchise-level draftees.

[penbeast0]

With his contract, I wouldn't have traded Avdija for the #8 pick this year at the end of LAST year, before his offensive jump. Big young forwards with excellent multiple position defense and good playmaking/bbiq are valuable even if they are 10-15 ppg scorers at NBA average efficiency. This year he showed a new level of offense which pushes his value considerably higher.

Dalton Knecht looks like the next Corey Kispert unless his defense is better than I have heard -- excellent outside shooter, good finisher at the rim, good size, very little playmaking, extremely limited on defense; though I certainly wouldn't trade his pick for Kispert because of the extra years of control and the (small but real) possibility he turns into something more.

Fringe all-star may be accurate (especially because the all-star votes traditionally overrate scoring and underrate defense), but you don't trade a young healthy player with a good attitude who has already shown fringe all-star ability for a middling pick in a bad draft.

[louc1970]

Does it change the narrative if SAS makes the pick the #4 instead of #8.

[TGW]

Does it change the narrative if SAS makes the pick the #4 instead of #8.

No.

[toooskies]

With his contract, I wouldn't have traded Avdija for the #8 pick this year at the end of LAST year, before his offensive jump. Big young forwards with excellent multiple position defense and good playmaking/bbiq are valuable even if they are 10-15 ppg scorers at NBA average efficiency. This year he showed a new level of offense which pushes his value considerably higher.

Dalton Knecht looks like the next Corey Kispert unless his defense is better than I have heard -- excellent outside shooter, good finisher at the rim, good size, very little playmaking, extremely limited on defense; though I certainly wouldn't trade his pick for Kispert because of the extra years of control and the (small but real) possibility he turns into something more.

Fringe all-star may be accurate (especially because the all-star votes traditionally overrate scoring and underrate defense), by you don't trade a young healthy player with a good attitude who has already shown fringe all-star ability for a middling pick in a bad draft.

Knecht makes no sense as a choice for a team like the Wizards at #8. Knecht is a much better pick for SA there when they already have a #1 in Wemby and a #2/#3 in Vassell, also have #4 to get another future scorer, and need to spread the floor with shooting.

The Wizards need franchise cornerstones, which I don't think anyone has Knecht's upside at that level. Guys with high ceilings, like Holland (Kuminga-esque?) or Dillingham (high offensive ceiling, low defensive floor) are much more appropriate picks at #8 for the Wizards, and that's where you see some reasonable upside.

In 2022-23 Avdija was way below NBA average efficiency. .535 true shooting is as far below average as stars are above average (league average was .581 and Kawhi Leonard was at .623, for example), and 30% from three isn't spacing the floor at all in the playoffs. On a good team, that guy isn't playable regardless of defense. There's a reason why his extension was so cheap last summer.

The offensive leap was so big that you absolutely need to know why it happened and why it may or may not be fully real. The easy answers are good stats/bad team, or played well when nobody was playing hard against the Wizards. OTOH, maybe he just needed the ball in his hands more or found a good shooting coach.

Someone who watched a lot of Wizards ball and isn't as invested in their future potential might have a clearer understanding of those reasons, and I certainly won't claim to know either way. But going forward has a wide range of possibilities based on historical record, anywhere from reversion to his career averages to consistent very good performance to continued advancement. A lot depends on if he continues to get opportunities like last year.

[penbeast0]

Note that I didn't say Avdija was a good offensive player before last year; but he was very young and you could see potential if he learned to use his other hand better and gained some confidence in his outside shot. Nothing certain but he was still only 22 and seemed a hard worker and with good bbiq. I had a lot more confidence in him improving than I did in former Wizards draft picks like Rui Hachimura or Kelly Oubre who didn't seem to have the instincts despite their physical tools.

[nate33]

In 2022-23 Avdija was way below NBA average efficiency. .535 true shooting is as far below average as stars are above average (league average was .581 and Kawhi Leonard was at .623, for example), and 30% from three isn't spacing the floor at all in the playoffs. On a good team, that guy isn't playable regardless of defense. There's a reason why his extension was so cheap last summer.

Yeah, one can't possibly expect that a 21-year-old would improve his shooting efficiency. It's never happened before.

[Dat2U]

In 2022-23 Avdija was way below NBA average efficiency. .535 true shooting is as far below average as stars are above average (league average was .581 and Kawhi Leonard was at .623, for example), and 30% from three isn't spacing the floor at all in the playoffs.

....

The offensive leap was so big that you absolutely need to know why it happened and why it may or may not be fully real. The easy answers are good stats/bad team, or played well when nobody was playing hard against the Wizards. OTOH, maybe he just needed the ball in his hands more or found a good shooting coach.

Only on realgm is a 21-yr old scrutinized & devalued for making significant improvements in his game.

[toooskies]

In 2022-23 Avdija was way below NBA average efficiency. .535 true shooting is as far below average as stars are above average (league average was .581 and Kawhi Leonard was at .623, for example), and 30% from three isn't spacing the floor at all in the playoffs. On a good team, that guy isn't playable regardless of defense. There's a reason why his extension was so cheap last summer.

Yeah, one can't possibly expect that a 21-year-old would improve his shooting efficiency. It's never happened before.

Avdija has two teammates who themselves shot 36% from three in their age-22 season and backslid in terms of shooting from 3 and overall efficiency immediately afterwards.

Improvement isn't linear and consistency isn't guaranteed.

[Texas Chuck]

Only on RealGM do we assume that players on teh team we root for only have massive upwards trajectories and freak out when anyone points out any reasons for skepticism.

Am I doing it right? Does this feel constructive to you? Or insulting?

It's okay to be super bullish on your player. But its also okay for others to look at the bulk of his career and not just 30 games and wonder what his career looks like.

If you are right, we will all have to eat our crow.