IQ Contract Predictions

OakleyDokely · Post #1 » by **OakleyDokely** » Tue Jun 18, 2024 1:35 pm

Now that the season is officially over, the offseason can begin. Teams can officially negotiate with their free agents. IQ's due for a contract extension coming off his rookie scale deal. He's a restricted FA so the Raps can match any offer.

Some comparable (non max) rookie scale extensions that were signed at the beginning of this past season:

D Bane: 5/197M (+8M in incentives)
D Vassell: 5/135M (+11M in incentives)
J McDaniels: 5/131M (+5M in incentives)

With the Raptors after the trade (38 games):

33.3 MIN, 18.6 PPG, 6.8 AST, 4.8 REB, 0.9 STL, .422 FG, .395 3PT, .841 FT

It took him some time to adjust, but after the allstar break he posted (18 games):

34.7 MIN, 21.2 PPG, 7.8 AST, 5.7 REB, 1.2 STL, .442 FG, .385 3PT, .852 FT

Syd-TK3 · Post #2 » by **Syd-TK3** » Tue Jun 18, 2024 1:42 pm

Give him Vassell contract

douggood · Post #3 » by **douggood** » Tue Jun 18, 2024 1:44 pm

for reference his max is 5 year 205

ArthurVandelay · Post #4 » by **ArthurVandelay** » Tue Jun 18, 2024 1:48 pm

5/150 with 135 guaranteed.

3m per year in incentives/bonuses tied to winning

WuTang_CMB · Post #5 » by **WuTang_CMB** » Tue Jun 18, 2024 1:55 pm

Likely 5 years $140M

MiamiSPX · Post #6 » by **MiamiSPX** » Tue Jun 18, 2024 3:26 pm

I was called crazy for saying he gets 150M a couple of months ago, but I am still saying it. In fact, I am guessing he gets between 150 (30M) and 162.5 (32.5M).

ontnut · Post #7 » by **ontnut** » Tue Jun 18, 2024 3:35 pm

5 years 150m with a PO. Or 5 years 155-160 without a PO.

dhackett1565 · Post #8 » by **dhackett1565** » Tue Jun 18, 2024 3:41 pm

Yeah, 140-160 over 5 years seems about right. Hoping they give a little more AAV to get away from an option year or shorter contract, but that isn't always easy, especially with the new supermax rules where guys want to be able to hit FA a little earlier.

ForeverTFC · Post #9 » by **ForeverTFC** » Tue Jun 18, 2024 3:45 pm

4/120 is my bet.

If it was me, I’d overpay in year 1 and try and get a declining contract.

OakleyDokely · Post #10 » by **OakleyDokely** » Tue Jun 18, 2024 3:46 pm

dhackett1565 wrote:Yeah, 140-160 over 5 years seems about right. Hoping they give a little more AAV to get away from an option year or shorter contract, but that isn't always easy, especially with the new supermax rules where guys want to be able to hit FA a little earlier.

I want a 5 year deal as well. You'd be getting his 25-29 years, which will probably be the most productive of his career.

AbC? · Post #11 » by **AbC?** » Tue Jun 18, 2024 3:49 pm

3 year deal with player option incoming.

Tor_Raps · Post #12 » by **Tor_Raps** » Tue Jun 18, 2024 3:52 pm

27.5/ season should be what he gets. Please don't judge players who put up stats in a losing/tanking situation. It's what leads to teams overpaying a guy like Trent who was near useless when the games actually mattered.

dhackett1565 · Post #13 » by **dhackett1565** » Tue Jun 18, 2024 3:53 pm

AbC? wrote:3 year deal with player option incoming.

Not entirely unlikely. This is what all the agents are pushing for, 3+1(PO) out of the rookie scale deal so you can hit that 7 year vet supermax free agency. But I'd hope if they went that way they'd get a better AAV, well sub 30M.

Key is finding a middle ground offer that he'll accept without him going the route of getting an offer sheet to sign, as that offer sheet likely is only a 2+1(PO), which even if it's not as pricey with the AAV (and it could be), would not be what the Raps are looking for.

anotherhomer · Post #14 » by **anotherhomer** » Tue Jun 18, 2024 3:55 pm

5 yr/140M make sense

brownbobcat · Post #15 » by **brownbobcat** » Tue Jun 18, 2024 3:59 pm

OakleyDokely wrote:
dhackett1565 wrote:Yeah, 140-160 over 5 years seems about right. Hoping they give a little more AAV to get away from an option year or shorter contract, but that isn't always easy, especially with the new supermax rules where guys want to be able to hit FA a little earlier.

I want a 5 year deal as well. You'd be getting his 25-29 years, which will probably be the most productive of his career.

The cap is going to go up 10% annually with the new TV deal so it will be around $170M by 2026 offseason (rough midpoint). If the average came in under $35M/yr, that would be around 20.5% of cap which is reasonable for a good-not-great starting PG. $30M/yr or under would be a huge win.

OakleyDokely · Post #16 » by **OakleyDokely** » Tue Jun 18, 2024 4:02 pm

brownbobcat wrote:
OakleyDokely wrote:
dhackett1565 wrote:Yeah, 140-160 over 5 years seems about right. Hoping they give a little more AAV to get away from an option year or shorter contract, but that isn't always easy, especially with the new supermax rules where guys want to be able to hit FA a little earlier.

I want a 5 year deal as well. You'd be getting his 25-29 years, which will probably be the most productive of his career.

The cap is going to go up 10% annually with the new TV deal so it will be around $170M by 2026 offseason (rough midpoint). If the average came in under $35M/yr, that would be around 20.5% of cap which is reasonable for a good-not-great starting PG. $30M/yr or under would be a huge win.

I think people will react (positively/negatively) to the average amount per year, but the term is the key number with a rising cap.

Getting him for something around 30M a year but for only 2 years + an option isn't a win long term.

dhackett1565 · Post #17 » by **dhackett1565** » Tue Jun 18, 2024 4:03 pm

brownbobcat wrote:
OakleyDokely wrote:
dhackett1565 wrote:Yeah, 140-160 over 5 years seems about right. Hoping they give a little more AAV to get away from an option year or shorter contract, but that isn't always easy, especially with the new supermax rules where guys want to be able to hit FA a little earlier.

I want a 5 year deal as well. You'd be getting his 25-29 years, which will probably be the most productive of his career.

The cap is going to go up 10% annually with the new TV deal so it will be around $170M by 2026 offseason (rough midpoint). If the average came in under $35M/yr, that would be around 20.5% of cap which is reasonable for a good-not-great starting PG. $30M/yr or under would be a huge win.

Yeah, this is why they should trade a higher AAV for longer term.

That said, the player and his agent know all this too. So it's not always as easy as just tossing a couple extra million in there - term can get very expensive very fast.

Badonkadonk · Post #18 » by **Badonkadonk** » Tue Jun 18, 2024 4:24 pm

I chose 25-29, but incorporating the jumps to the various thresholds in the CBA, I wouldn't be surprised at low 30s. If I were his agent, that's what I'd be shooting for, I think people are gonna be shocked at what the next generation of contracts come in at.

The MLE for non-tax teams is gonna hit ~19M during the course of IQs next deal.
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cba/exceptions

ItsDanger · Post #19 » by **ItsDanger** » Tue Jun 18, 2024 4:33 pm

Prior to trade, it was said he was looking for a 5 year deal averaging $25M. I suspect that's gone up slightly.

kalel123 · Post #20 » by **kalel123** » Tue Jun 18, 2024 4:36 pm

Feel like it's going to be around $30M a year. We have historically overpaid slightly to retain our own FA's, which usually becomes a good contract by the end. Also with the new TV deal on the horizon, he's probably going to be aiming to get paid more so wouldn't be a total surprise if he ended up getting more. Maybe that comes in incentives.

his average annual salary will be...