New Yahoo article questioning the validity of ‘88 MJ’s DPOY

[1993Playoffs]

https://sports.yahoo.com/a-closer-look-at-michael-jordans-1988-dpoy-award-raises-questions-about-its-validity-has-lebron-james-been-chasing-a-ghost-140452567.html

Very good read. Didn’t expect this

[jalengreen]

Very interesting article. The massive home/road statistical split is one thing on its own, but not necessarily conclusive proof of any faulty statkeeping. But the discrepancy between live-ball turnovers and steals is pretty damning.

The incongruent turnover/steal columns presented a glaring red flag. In the other five games we watched, the live-ball turnovers and steals did not add up, either. In the Detroit game, eight Chicago steals on six Detroit live-ball turnovers. In the Denver game, 13 Chicago steals on just seven Denver live-ball turnovers. Again and again, the official steal counts were routinely outpacing the possible number of steal opportunities. Something was amiss.

All in all, by our count, the box score showed 59 steals on 41 live-ball turnovers, resulting in a whopping 18 excess steals.

Who benefited from all those extra steals? We brought our attention to Jordan’s accounting. In the six games, the box scores indicated that Jordan’s total steal count was 28. After comparing our notes from the film study, we each counted 12 steals. An astounding difference of 16 excess steals. Almost every excess steal was being allocated to Jordan.

[Colbinii]

Most sane people don't consider MJ close to the best defender in the NBA in 1988. Not really surprising, everyone seemed to Love Jordan.

[AEnigma]

Unexpectedly thorough article. Although it does not significantly change how I assess the season — I have always felt his box production grossly exceeded his real impact — I was most interested by the year-by-year road splits:



Will say that regardless of blatant home-cooking, Jordan was still more actively focusing on defence than in the surrounding years. However, this does make me softer on 1988 being his true defensive peak, because without actively watching every game (and recording those active impressions), even those of us who try to avoid being tied to box production may defer at least somewhat to a box score outlier season.

[KembaWalker]

I mean, if everyone relevant was getting juiced the same way I don’t see how it matters that much. Pulled up Alvin who was referenced frequently in the article and his splits were basically the same

[Colbinii]

I mean, if everyone relevant was getting juiced the same way I don’t see how it matters that much. Pulled up Alvin who was referenced frequently in the article and his splits were basically the same

But everyone isn't getting juiced the same way. Read the article.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Lebron's stats are more juiced than anyone's in NBA history, let's be real. Like he had teammates literally guiding rebounds into his hands. So the article is misguided trying to discredit MJ's resume in regards to that debate.

As for MJ's DPOY, it's was deserved. Perimeter defense is vastly underrated since the +/- gurus deemed it not important. MJ was way more impactful on defense than Rudy G has every been in practical terms.

Hopefully AI starts to merge into analytics so we can finally shed real light into actual player impact

[Colbinii]

Hopefully AI starts to merge into analytics so we can finally shed real light into actual player impact

And if AI agrees with many of the current analytic models? Are you going to change your tune, or keep playing the same broken chords?

[Owly]

I mean, if everyone relevant was getting juiced the same way I don’t see how it matters that much. Pulled up Alvin who was referenced frequently in the article and his splits were basically the same

So for context my starting point would be not making strong general assumptions off one year and not concluding much about one year without knowing more about norms and how much individuals fluctuate. One might consider too if teams varied strategies for home and road.

With that as context ... with blocks included Robertson's '88 is a touch "hotter" than MJ's (48 home blocks to 21 road ones lead his steals+blocks at home to make 69.6% (0.695652174) of his total steals and blocks to Jordan's 64.1% (0.641221374). I would think juicing blocks was harder instinctively though (I could be wrong).

That said "if everyone relevant was getting juiced the same way I don’t see how it matters that much" hinges an awful lot on that if. Say one assumes it a "juiced number" in both these cases, that would not mean "everyone relevant" was getting the same benefit. Even if just talking guys for that DPoY (so era isn't a factor - article at first glances seems to suggest stuff is tighter now) star guards might be more a focus for highlighting than lower status, less marketable bigs (say Eaton or Bol).

[Doctor MJ]

https://sports.yahoo.com/a-closer-look-at-michael-jordans-1988-dpoy-award-raises-questions-about-its-validity-has-lebron-james-been-chasing-a-ghost-140452567.html

Very good read. Didn’t expect this

Wow. Glad to see people looking at stuff like this in enough details to be able to explain how the inflation happened in an area where you can't just inflate without taking away something else.

I consider it a given that home scorekeepers have often done stuff in this direction, and so tend to think we should probably spend more time looking at away statistics, particularly in earlier eras where it was easiest for hometeam manipulation to occur without risk.

[KembaWalker]

Logic would dictate these same away scorekeepers would be just as motivated to deflate road guys stats if they have someone they are trying to juice, although this may be less common since a lot of teams probably didn’t have a guy in the race. Box scores are pretty junk all around

[Doctor MJ]

Most sane people don't consider MJ close to the best defender in the NBA in 1988. Not really surprising, everyone seemed to Love Jordan.

Ah, a good point of distinction here.

Was Jordan the best defensive player in the league in '88? We know the answer is "No", but then we also know that early DPOY voting was clearly pretty confused about the relative value of perimeter and interior defenders. I never thought Jordan's DPOY was more suspect than the other perimeter DPOYs previously, but now I see it might be the most egregious of the bunch. (Might be, but Alvin Robertson...).

When that silly guy make the case that JJJ's stocks were being fraudulently counted, it frankly perplexed me because we're now in an era where we have all these other stats that are clearly being included in DPOY considerations. I mean, Marc Gasol won a DPOY for goodness sake!

But voters back in '88? Um yeah, this fraudulent scorekeeping may well be the reason why Jordan won the DPOY. because the whole narrative around Jordan's DPOY candidacy - as stipulated by Jordan himself as he bashed Cooper for actually sticking to his man responsibly so that Magic could play free safety like Jordan - was the steals and blocks. If those numbers aren't big enough, he doesn't get that award.

[Doctor MJ]

Logic would dictate these same away scorekeepers would be just as motivated to deflate road guys stats if they have someone they are trying to juice, although this may be less common since a lot of teams probably didn’t have a guy in the race. Box scores are pretty junk all around

I mean, you have 41 times as many game with your home team than you do with a typical road team, so even if motivation for deflation & inflation were the same, you have WAY more ability to influence your own guys stats than anyone else's.

But I also think the motivation for incentivized homer-ism among the staff is far stronger than incentivized hater-ism, and in general it's less risky to inflate than deflate.

Beyond all that:

Even if we grant that there's road deflation of statistics, that's happening to everyone in a kind of averaged out way. By contrast home inflation generally happens with the scorekeeper looking to give the player credit for the stat he's known for.

So, as the article says, if Stockton passed the ball and then that guy makes a shot, that's that's an assist. Similarly, if two guys could get credit for a rebound or a steal, there's a pull to give it to the guy for whom people are known to care about his rebounds or steals.

[Doctor MJ]

I mean, if everyone relevant was getting juiced the same way I don’t see how it matters that much. Pulled up Alvin who was referenced frequently in the article and his splits were basically the same

But everyone isn't getting juiced the same way. Read the article.

Right, plus, Michael Jordan and Alvin Robertson are not "everyone", what they are are guys who prioritized making dramatic defensive plays over actually guarding their man.

It's frankly not unreasonable to look at all of these thieves and wonder if they were actually helping their teams, but the reason we look is more to appreciate the vast majority of players who were doing their thing on defense without being focused on padding their stats.

And as alluded to, that would be a guy like one Jordan was denigrating: Michael Cooper.

[OhayoKD]

Most sane people don't consider MJ close to the best defender in the NBA in 1988. Not really surprising, everyone seemed to Love Jordan.

Ah, a good point of distinction here.

Was Jordan the best defensive player in the league in '88? We know the answer is "No", but then we also know that early DPOY voting was clearly pretty confused about the relative value of perimeter and interior defenders. I never thought Jordan's DPOY was more suspect than the other perimeter DPOYs previously, but now I see it might be the most egregious of the bunch. (Might be, but Alvin Robertson...).

When that silly guy make the case that JJJ's stocks were being fraudulently counted, it frankly perplexed me because we're now in an era where we have all these other stats that are clearly being included in DPOY considerations. I mean, Marc Gasol won a DPOY for goodness sake!

But voters back in '88? Um yeah, this fraudulent scorekeeping may well be the reason why Jordan won the DPOY. because the whole narrative around Jordan's DPOY candidacy - as stipulated by Jordan himself as he bashed Cooper for actually sticking to his man responsibly so that Magic could play free safety like Jordan - was the steals and blocks. If those numbers aren't big enough, he doesn't get that award.

Feels like a good time to remind everyone it wasn't just the steals that were inflated:

Spoiler:

I wouldn’t say that analysis of 40 possessions in a random game is particularly persuasive of anything.
Alright, then how about we do another one. This time from 1988 when Jordan was the leading shotblocker on his team and 16th in blocks in the whole NBA. The first full game that shows up from CHI vs DET on youtube is Game 3 where Jordan was one of two Chicago players to record a block:

Watch on YouTube

Distribution went

Oakley 13
Corzine 9
Pippen 8
Grant 6
Jordan 3
Sam Vincient 2
Rory Sparrow 1
Elston Turner 1

(Doesn't add up exactly to 40 as there were a couple splits)

Some notes:
-> rim-load only tracks usage, not efficacy, I'd say Oakley was very effective, Corzine not, Pippen Grant and Vincient were also effective, Sparrow and Turner not.
-> Jordan was very effective the one time the other team drove, but the first 2 times he's credited as the paint-protector were quick possessions where the other team didn't really try to drive.
-> Oakley had the most possessions where if I gave secondary credit he'd also be the #2, Grant and Pippen would come after

As a side note, I'm honestly suprised how much Pippen and Grant (and to a degree even Sam Vincient) were doing defensively here. I was pretty confident Oakley was the real paint-protecting lead from the first time I watched these games(though maybe I underrated the extent), but it might be worth tracking more games to see if everyone else's performance was something happening regularly.

Hopefully AI starts to merge into analytics so we can finally shed real light into actual player impact

What exactly is AI going to be doing here?

[1993Playoffs]

https://sports.yahoo.com/a-closer-look-at-michael-jordans-1988-dpoy-award-raises-questions-about-its-validity-has-lebron-james-been-chasing-a-ghost-140452567.html

Very good read. Didn’t expect this

Wow. Glad to see people looking at stuff like this in enough details to be able to explain how the inflation happened in an area where you can't just inflate without taking away something else.

I consider it a given that home scorekeepers have often done stuff in this direction, and so tend to think we should probably spend more time looking at away statistics, particularly in earlier eras where it was easiest for hometeam manipulation to occur without risk.

Yeah good point, I think in the article it says if we adjust for road steals MJ actually came in 4th place behind Denver’s Michael Adams

[kcktiny]

Not sure why this is a surprise to anyone.

Stats crews have been inflating the stats of home team players - and also deflating the stats of away team players - since stats crews have existed. Especially on inconsequential statistics like assists, steals, or blocks, where the stats themselves do not affect the outcome of the game.

The NBA first tracked steals and blocked shots in 1973-74. Elmore Smith blocked 393 shots that season. Go look at his home/away disparity for those blocks:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithel01/gamelog/1974

Of his 12 games with 8+ blocks, 9 were at home. I wouldn't be surprised if 2/3 of his blocks came at home that season.

In 1985-86 Alvin Robertson set the league record for steals. Of his 28 games with 5+ steals, 22 were home games:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/roberal01/gamelog/1986

[capfan33]

Not sure why this is a surprise to anyone.

Stats crews have been inflating the stats of home team players - and also deflating the stats of away team players - since stats crews have existed. Especially on inconsequential statistics like assists, steals, or blocks, where the stats themselves do not affect the outcome of the game.

This is true, there been a number of things written about Stockton and assists for example, but its the degree of the discrepancy that's shocking here. This isn't like 10 or even 20% which you can sort of gloss over, 82% is completely absurd and a historic outlier.

[Special_Puppy]

Lebron's stats are more juiced than anyone's in NBA history, let's be real. Like he had teammates literally guiding rebounds into his hands. So the article is misguided trying to discredit MJ's resume in regards to that debate.

As for MJ's DPOY, it's was deserved. Perimeter defense is vastly underrated since the +/- gurus deemed it not important. MJ was way more impactful on defense than Rudy G has every been in practical terms.

Hopefully AI starts to merge into analytics so we can finally shed real light into actual player impact

Was MJ a better defender than Hakeem Olajuwon in 1988?

[One_and_Done]

Lebron's stats are more juiced than anyone's in NBA history, let's be real. Like he had teammates literally guiding rebounds into his hands. So the article is misguided trying to discredit MJ's resume in regards to that debate.

As for MJ's DPOY, it's was deserved. Perimeter defense is vastly underrated since the +/- gurus deemed it not important. MJ was way more impactful on defense than Rudy G has every been in practical terms.

Hopefully AI starts to merge into analytics so we can finally shed real light into actual player impact

Lebron was more deserving of a DPOY than Jordan ever was.