2024 Free Agency

[TimberKat]

I think something starting around 32-35 is realistic.

His market value is no where close to that. There's not a team out there that would pay him that in 2026. 20-24 mill is more like it.

I think Nic Claxton will help set the stage, and I would bet Gobert for the next 3-4 years is a better basketball player than Nic Claxton.

We just saw Gobert be quite comfortably a Top 10 impact player in the post-season. It will be Gobert's ages 33-36 season(s).

Jimmy Butler recently signed a 3 year, 146 Million extension in 2023. That is 48-49 Million AAV.

Domantas Sabonis is making 44 Million AAV over the next 4 seasons. Gobert is a similar caliber player as Sabonis [albeit older]. I think it is fair to say Gobert will command well over 20-24 Million, unless everyone in the NBA forgets just how good Rudy Gobert is, including Rudy Gobert himself

I am looking at it like this: If Gobert opt-in his player option of 46.7m in 2025-2026. He would then likely make $20m the following two years before drop off to Westbrook level. So (46.7+20+20)/3 = 28.9. So an extension of 3 years 33M each or 30M each for 4 years would be incentive to extend instead of opt-in. Maybe even 33, 30, 30, 25 is still better than opt-in because that would take him to 2028-2029 season, likely end of his career.

[Sealab2024]

I'm calling it now, SloMo returns. Vet minimum. Call it a gut feeling

[Klomp]

I'm calling it now, SloMo returns. Vet minimum. Call it a gut feeling

I tend to agree. Morris too. And honestly, maybe even McLaughlin, as crazy as it sounds.

[frankenwolf]

curious if Evan Fournier looks like he has anything left in the tank during Olympics
31, but hasn't done much in NBA for couple seasons

Yeah, he got on Thibs bad side and hasn't played much at all. Early this season (maybe or late last), Rudy said that he was upset that Evan wasn't playing more. Take that for what it's worth.

[Klomp]

From today's Scoops segment on SKOR North:
"Saturday the 29th, the $2 million contract for Josh Minott becomes guaranteed....the Wolves are going to bring back Josh Minott"
"That's also the last day to tender 1-year qualifying offers to Luka Garza and Daishen Nix....not sure on Nix; they would like to keep Garza around"

[shrink]

From today's Scoops segment on SKOR North:
"Saturday the 29th, the $2 million contract for Josh Minott becomes guaranteed....the Wolves are going to bring back Josh Minott"
"That's also the last day to tender 1-year qualifying offers to Luka Garza and Daishen Nix....not sure on Nix; they would like to keep Garza around"

I’m a little surprised about Garza, but I know he’s popular. I also heard something about the team tracking sportsmanship moves, like hopping off the bench to congratulate a teammate on a good play, etc. Supposedly the Wolves have a whole system in place with a number of things you can do to score points in this area. I imagine Garza has to be near the top on the team.

[wolves_89]

I'm calling it now, SloMo returns. Vet minimum. Call it a gut feeling

My best guess is that Kyle gets an offer of $10M/year or more in free agency and the Wolves let him move on. I think there is a much higher chance that Morris is back on a bargain contract.

[younggunsmn]

Is it correct that Gobert is signed through next year. Extension would mean he opt out of his 46m 2025-2026.
I think he signs a 3 to 4 year deal starting 2025-2026 season with something like 30M a year for 4 years.

I think something starting around 32-35 is realistic.

His market value is no where close to that. There's not a team out there that would pay him that in 2026. 20-24 mill is more like it.

Agree. His current $ value right now is right around what Nikola Vucevic signed for last summer unrestricted, plus inflation.
So 20-24 is about right.


You don't extend thrity-something 7'2 guys out any further than you absolutely have to.
His athleticism slips just a little bit and he becomes unplayable pretty quickly.

[Colbinii]

I think something starting around 32-35 is realistic.

His market value is no where close to that. There's not a team out there that would pay him that in 2026. 20-24 mill is more like it.

Agree. His current $ value right now is right around what Nikola Vucevic signed for last summer unrestricted, plus inflation.
So 20-24 is about right.


You don't extend thrity-something 7'2 guys out any further than you absolutely have to.
His athleticism slips just a little bit and he becomes unplayable pretty quickly.

That makes no sense. You guys really don't see how good Gobert was

[younggunsmn]

Slo-Mo's shooting disappearing IMHO has caused a serious chance he is now a vet minimum player.
My take:

JMac - 50% chance back for vet min
Slo-Mo - 33% chance back for vet min
Morris - 5% chance back for vet min

Garza - Zero percent chance given qualifying offer to make restricted free agent (because tax ramifications)
but 33% chance re-signs 1 year vet min. 33% he leaves for europe or another team. 33% chance wolves sign different backup big instead. 1% chance quits nba and becomes fashion and hollywood icon starring in blockbuster Zoolander 3.

[younggunsmn]

His market value is no where close to that. There's not a team out there that would pay him that in 2026. 20-24 mill is more like it.

Agree. His current $ value right now is right around what Nikola Vucevic signed for last summer unrestricted, plus inflation.
So 20-24 is about right.


You don't extend thrity-something 7'2 guys out any further than you absolutely have to.
His athleticism slips just a little bit and he becomes unplayable pretty quickly.

That makes no sense. You guys really don't see how good Gobert was

Did you actually watch the Dallas series? Or the Denver series?
Gafford and Lively look like prime Dwight Howard against us but get shut down and embarrassed by old man Al Horford?
Should Boston give Horford a max extension now too?

Saying Rudy is worth 20-24 is not a knock on Rudy, it's addressing the reality of what a defense only player is worth at the most talent saturated position in the game.
That's about what 2023 DPOY Brook Lopez got and that guy can stretch the floor too.

[Klomp]

Saying Rudy is worth 20-24 is not a knock on Rudy, it's addressing the reality of what a defense only player is worth at the most talent saturated position in the game.
That's about what 2023 DPOY Brook Lopez got and that guy can stretch the floor too.

Lopez is 4 years older.

[thinktank]

[gfycat][/gfycat]

Agree. His current $ value right now is right around what Nikola Vucevic signed for last summer unrestricted, plus inflation.
So 20-24 is about right.


You don't extend thrity-something 7'2 guys out any further than you absolutely have to.
His athleticism slips just a little bit and he becomes unplayable pretty quickly.

That makes no sense. You guys really don't see how good Gobert was

Did you actually watch the Dallas series? Or the Denver series?
Gafford and Lively look like prime Dwight Howard against us but get shut down and embarrassed by old man Al Horford?
Should Boston give Horford a max extension now too?

Saying Rudy is worth 20-24 is not a knock on Rudy, it's addressing the reality of what a defense only player is worth at the most talent saturated position in the game.
That's about what 2023 DPOY Brook Lopez got and that guy can stretch the floor too.

Rudy had the best on/off of any Wolf against Dallas, I believe.

Two players are not the whole Dallas team. You win by beating the whole team, not just two guys.

Better re-watch the series.

[Note30]

[gfycat][/gfycat]

That makes no sense. You guys really don't see how good Gobert was

Did you actually watch the Dallas series? Or the Denver series?
Gafford and Lively look like prime Dwight Howard against us but get shut down and embarrassed by old man Al Horford?
Should Boston give Horford a max extension now too?

Saying Rudy is worth 20-24 is not a knock on Rudy, it's addressing the reality of what a defense only player is worth at the most talent saturated position in the game.
That's about what 2023 DPOY Brook Lopez got and that guy can stretch the floor too.

Rudy had the best on/off of any Wolf against Dallas, I believe.

Two players are not the whole Dallas team. You win by beating the whole team, not just two guys.

Better re-watch the series.

On/off means **** all.

[shrink]

I think something starting around 32-35 is realistic.

His market value is no where close to that. There's not a team out there that would pay him that in 2026. 20-24 mill is more like it.

Agree. His current $ value right now is right around what Nikola Vucevic signed for last summer unrestricted, plus inflation.
So 20-24 is about right.

You don't extend thrity-something 7'2 guys out any further than you absolutely have to.
His athleticism slips just a little bit and he becomes unplayable pretty quickly.

Meh. Gobert isn’t the typical ponderous big man, and he has very little history of injuries. As a starting center, he’s averaged 71+ games a year, for ten years, and played 76 games last season. He is well known for how meticulously he takes care of his body, particularly his diet. Moreover, while Gobert’s length obviously helps him, it’s his brain and his positioning that make him so good defensively, not biting on fakes, etc. I don’t have concerns about Gobert being an elite defensive player at 35.

As for Gafford and Lively exposing him, that was the great passing of Luka Doncic, and the tired Wolves being unable to stay in front of him through picks. Gobert was supposed to be exposed against PHX. People say he was exposed against Jokic. People say he was exposed against the Mavs. The truth is, Gobert had the highest plus-minus of any player on the 2024 playoffs at +111.

[BlacJacMac]

Meh. Gobert isn’t the typical ponderous big man, and he has very little history of injuries. He is well known for how meticulously he takes care of his body, particularly his diet. Moreover, while Gobert’s length obviously helps him, it’s his brain and his positioning that make him so good defensively, not biting on fakes, etc. I don’t have concerns about Gobert being an elite defensive player at 35.

Absolutely. Gobert is not the most athletic/coordinated/twitchy player. He relies on size and smarts more than anything else. That should age well.

[shrink]

I will say that while I doubt the club is scared of extending Gobert because of his age/health/skill, they may be reluctant to do so because of the club’s overall finances. I would hope both ownership groups are willing to pay big tax bills the next two years - it makes sense to develop the market. However, it’s difficult financially for a team to stay over the second apron a third season. Right now, the Wolves have only three players locked up out that far - the three big new extensions of Ant, KAT and Jaden. Extending Gobert too, if all four are on the roster then, could make it difficult to stay under that apron, especially when we don’t know how much our starting 2026-27 PG will cost.

Personally, I think Connelly should still do it. In situations like this, a player agrees to a deal for less than he is worth, for the longterm security, and the team accepting any risk. I suspect that Gobert would still be a top 5 defensive player for the next five years, and this deal would be tradeable, if owners demand that Connelly cuts salary. More importantly, the Wolves may need him if KAT breaks down, or they choose to move Towns because of the payroll.

[Neeva]

Youngsgun and note30 have been wrong about mostly everything since the Rudy trade went down, it’s pretty comical how wrong their takes become like Kessler being better than Rudy( as a rookie) or McDaniels being trash.. etc

[Note30]

Youngsgun and note30 have been wrong about mostly everything since the Rudy trade went down, it’s pretty comical how wrong their takes become like Kessler being better than Rudy( as a rookie) or McDaniels being trash.. etc

Oh is that so? I don't think so one bit. Where are all the posters crowning us champions. Where are all the people crowning Gobert as a top 10 offensive player.

Don't get this twisted the only reason we got as far as we did was Anthony Edwards. Without him this team is an 11th seed. Our entire offense is him. Without him we're trash.

McDaniels disappeared for entire games and showed up for a few.

As for Kessler, at no point did I ever claim he was better than Gobert, my only point was he was a similar player and that if you want to experiment with a two big lineup maybe try it out first before throwing your entire wad at it.

Gobert and KAT aren't playable at the same time and that has more to do with Gobert's limitations.

We're capped, there's very little room for improvement and save some magical trade for KAT that brings us two players who can produce way more than him this is about as good as we are going to be.

If you want to call me out, name a time and court and bring a ball. We'll see whats up.

[minimus]

Meh. Gobert isn’t the typical ponderous big man, and he has very little history of injuries. He is well known for how meticulously he takes care of his body, particularly his diet. Moreover, while Gobert’s length obviously helps him, it’s his brain and his positioning that make him so good defensively, not biting on fakes, etc. I don’t have concerns about Gobert being an elite defensive player at 35.

Absolutely. Gobert is not the most athletic/coordinated/twitchy player. He relies on size and smarts more than anything else. That should age well.

Well, it is actually combination of Gobert size AND decent mobility that makes him DPOY. With how NBA game is shifting more towards perimeter Gobert mobility will be even more crucial for his success. Same with offense, Gobert struggles to finish non dunks around rim, if he loses a bit of his mobility he will be a liability offensively as well. His first year in MIN is a good example, when he was dealing with small injuries. Add here his summers with French national team and this is the reason I am a bit concerned about possible Rudy extension