2024 Draft Thread - Part II

[doclinkin]

At least Brown was a freak athlete with crazy measureables. He was 6-7 with a 7-0 wingspan who could jump out of the gym. Sometimes teams take a flyer on those top 1% athletic specimens in the hopes that they can be developed. Particularly if they're freshmen and their mediocre college numbers can be explained by inexperience.

…

I think betting on guys who are neither all that athletic nor all that prolific in college is an even riskier move. Even if you love a guy's intangibles, if he is both mediocre as an athlete as well as mediocre in production, it's unlikely to turn out well - particularly at the very top of the draft. Sure, those guys can be nice role players, but very rarely are they stars.

Not sure why we’re calling Castle mediocre in production and Athleticism. Only 3 PGs put up faster lane agility or shuttle run scores. Aside from 3pt shooting his numbers are strong across the board.

His athletic upside showed in his Defense. He showed all season he was startlingly good at walling off penetration. Covered for Clingan on the interior when the big man challenged outside and couldn’t recover.

In the NBA you play the position you can defend. Few offenses rely on ball dominant PGs any more. More are switching to motion offenses and team passing. UConn style offense. Where Castle excelled.

We are drafting for upside. Work ethic, measurables, track record.

The only skill Castle needs is an outside shot. 70+% FT suggests his shot will improve. As does his showing in workouts. If he’s playable on D as a PG He will be a mismatch vs PGs on offense. Too big too strong. And a mismatch in D vs any guard. Switchable vs many forwards. If he struggles at PG for a minute, that suits us. But to me he seems like the biggest combination of upside and likelihood to achieve it.

Can he play in the NBA? I say so.

I will happily look back on this thread and read where Dat has a ‘DO NOT DRAFT’ rating on Castle. I didn’t quote where similar things were said about Kawhi. Doubts based on his athleticism and lack of a shot. Despite clearly showing he knew how to play the game and had the strength to do so.

I think Castle IS an athletic outlier. In quickness and functional speed. Useful strength. Right he’s unusual. Doesn’t fit the mold of most PGs. But can he play the game? Will he get better?

Of players in the lotto I think only Reed Sheppard is a better actual basketball player. In terms of playing winning ball. (Plus Edey outside the lotto). only thing is Reed’s stature suggests he might lack the upside potential of Castle. Still I’d take Reed and be happy. Hell I’ll be optimistic about whomever we take. But I’m invested in Castle and would love to see his development. I think he’d be an ideal fit next to whomever we draft in the next few years. He’s good. Will get better. I know this kid can play.

And you know, Hurley loves the kid. We’d be set when he is ready to quit UConn and jump to the NBA.

[9 and 20]

At this point our alternate uniforms next year are just gonna be the french flag. I consider this a hostile takeover. Screenshot this post

Might be something to this. Trade Deni for Rissacher. Jules Bernard starts because he has to French with that name. Bring back fan fave Ian Mahinmi. Start planning for Wembanya free agency now.

[NatP4]

I trust our talent evaluators. I'm glad they brought Sarr in, interviewed him, and worked him out. If they draft him, I'm going to assume it's because they have faith that Sarr will ultimately pan out as a center.

I like to think of Sarr as a 3/4 and compare him to Siakam.

Siakam age 22 vs low level NCAA competition (per36):
21.1 points 12.1 rebounds 1.8 assists 2.3 blocks 1.0 steals 2.1 turnovers 57% TS. 20% from 3 68% from FT (basically didn’t shoot 3s at all in college)

Sarr age 19 vs NBL competition (per36):
19.2 points 9.0 rebounds 2.1 assists 3.1 blocks 0.9 steals 2.1 turnovers 57% TS. 28% from 3 70% from FT

Develop him as a switch everything 4 with weak side shot blocking ability, guy that plays with the ball on offense and has some legit playmaking/shot creation skills. He’s simply not, and probably won’t ever be, a screen setting roll man/finisher.

[doclinkin]

Idk drafting a guy who’s scared to play big seems like the wrong move. Refusing to work out with Atlanta since he doesn’t want competition or to play at 5 makes me even more leery. I’ll be happy to be wrong if we draft him and he develops a power game. Or a finesse game. But I don’t see the dog in his game. personally I think our interest in Sarr is a smokescreen for something. Wishful thinking maybe but I don’t see it.

[joshuacf]

Idk drafting a guy who’s scared to play big seems like the wrong move. Refusing to work out with Atlanta since he doesn’t want competition or to play at 5 makes me even more leery. I’ll be happy to be wrong if we draft him and he develops a power game. Or a finesse game. But I don’t see the dog in his game. personally I think our interest in Sarr is a smokescreen for something. Wishful thinking maybe but I don’t see it.

This is a very odd critique, since you seem to be a big supporter of Castle, who insists he wants to play point guard in the NBA. So is Castle afraid to play big? Or does he just want to play the position he wants to play, just like Sarr?

[Kanyewest]

Sarr's reaction draft night when Atlanta won the lottery



Sportsbook currently have Sarr at -500 to the WIzards although I remember the sportsbook odds shifting dramatically in the 2022 NBA draft on who was going to go #1.

[doclinkin]

Idk drafting a guy who’s scared to play big seems like the wrong move. Refusing to work out with Atlanta since he doesn’t want competition or to play at 5 makes me even more leery. I’ll be happy to be wrong if we draft him and he develops a power game. Or a finesse game. But I don’t see the dog in his game. personally I think our interest in Sarr is a smokescreen for something. Wishful thinking maybe but I don’t see it.

This is a very odd critique, since you seem to be a big supporter of Castle, who insists he wants to play point guard in the NBA. So is Castle afraid to play big? Or does he just want to play the position he wants to play, just like Sarr?

Castle does play big. He regularly defends players taller and heavier and outmuscles them despite being slim. His competitive nature is not in doubt.

But Sarr has no interior game. And didn’t even in the Overtime Elite games where he was often the tallest and biggest guy on the floor. He seems timid and overmatched when battling in the paint. When caught deep with the ball he will pass it as often as he tries to go up with it. We’d be drafting him as a big who plays small. He’s notable for his agility at that size but so far that hasn’t translated into success at his primary position. He doesn’t even play as a power forward but a kind of small forward or wing at the top of the key. Won’t even roll. Or set a hard pick. He’s been training as a pro since forever. It’s in his family. How has he not developed any big man skills already?

Maybe he gets more confidence as he bulks and builds muscle. Or maybe his skill level develops swiftly. I don’t know. It’s just a feel thing for me. I see him in interviews and just don’t get the sense he’s got the fire I want from my front court monsters.

If I’m drafting for upside I’m looking for the player who plays with a rage to compete. That guy will work to get bigger and better and realize his potential. Otherwise you get JaVale McGee. Or Kwame Brown. A supremely talented underachiever.

I could be wrong. I like his one on one defense at the perimeter. He’s no doubt a physical talent, so maybe 70% of his potential is higher than 90% of somebody else’s. I just get the feeling years from now we will look back and ID another player as the best in the class and wish we’d drafted 3rd or 5th instead.

Funny. Looks like we didn’t even work out Reed Sheppard. So clearly by Wizards fan logic thats the guy who’s Best in Draft.

[leswizards]

Reading some of the responses to Sarr not wanting to play center makes me wonder why we are so set on drafting this kid. First, people think he would be our fourth best pf. That is saying a lot because Kuzma sucks and I can’t even figure out who the third quality pf could be (unless they mean Bilal). Second, people think he is a huge project at center. Third, I am reminded of what one nba analyst once said about one the wizards draft busts (I think it was about kwame, but not sure), it was something along the lines of: it doesn’t matter what position you project the player to be, what matters is what position the player projects himself to be, because that will always be how he plays the game.

[nate33]

Not sure why we’re calling Castle mediocre in production and Athleticism. Only 3 PGs put up faster lane agility or shuttle run scores. Aside from 3pt shooting his numbers are strong across the board.

His athletic upside showed in his Defense. He showed all season he was startlingly good at walling off penetration. Covered for Clingan on the interior when the big man challenged outside and couldn’t recover.

I'm looking mostly at his vertical leap numbers and the 3/4 sprint because neither of those can't be improved much with last-minute cramming for the test. His 3/4 sprint was one of the slowest among the guards, and his 28-inch standing vertical was also among the worst. His max vertical was better at 37 inches. But that's still only in-line with what one expects from a small forward (which is okay since he is small forward sized). Not bad but not amazing either.

In the NBA you play the position you can defend. Few offenses rely on ball dominant PGs any more. More are switching to motion offenses and team passing. UConn style offense. Where Castle excelled.

We are drafting for upside. Work ethic, measurables, track record.

The only skill Castle needs is an outside shot. 70+% FT suggests his shot will improve. As does his showing in workouts. If he’s playable on D as a PG He will be a mismatch vs PGs on offense. Too big too strong. And a mismatch in D vs any guard. Switchable vs many forwards. If he struggles at PG for a minute, that suits us. But to me he seems like the biggest combination of upside and likelihood to achieve it.

Can he play in the NBA? I say so.

I absolutely think Castle can play and I like him as a prospect. I think he is likely to improve his shot and pan out to be a reliable starter. But I think he is a 4th/5th starter. I don't really see a lot of guard skills on offense. He is going to be a 3&D wing with a little extra "connector" skills as a ball-handler and passer, but not really a guard who can run primary actions. I think his 3-ball will be serviceable, but he'll more of a 35-37% guy with a slower release. Guys won't be able to completely leave him alone, but he's not going to have off-ball gravity like a KCP/Danny Green type of player.

I figure the absolute best possible outcome is that he is a Jrue Holiday/Jalen Suggs type of player, but I don't think his PG skills will ever get to Jrue's level, and I don't think his 3-ball will ever get to Suggs' level. I think the likelihood is much greater that he pans out a tier below those guys because his offense won't be reliable enough. That makes him more of a Marcus Smart or Alex Caruso. Those are good players, but not worthy of the #2 overall pick in the draft.

I'm not really in love with Sarr so if we traded down to the #4-6 range and Sheppard was off the table, I wouldn't hate the Castle pick. I just wouldn't take him at #2.

[nate33]

Reading some of the responses to Sarr not wanting to play center makes me wonder why we are so set on drafting this kid. First, people think he would be our fourth best pf. That is saying a lot because Kuzma sucks and I can’t even figure out who the third quality pf could be (unless they mean Bilal). Second, people think he is a huge project at center. Third, I am reminded of what one nba analyst once said about one the wizards draft busts (I think it was about kwame, but not sure), it was something along the lines of: it doesn’t matter what position you project the player to be, what matters is what position the player projects himself to be, because that will always be how he plays the game.

Agree with this.

(The third quality PF is Bilal. In two years, that guy will be 6-9 225 with a 7-3 wingspan.)

[gesa2]

It’s much easier to imagine how every prospect can fail in this year’s class, they all have at least be one major flaw. I like Sarr because I think we can count on him having a bankable NBA skill - switchable defense at the 4/5 ala Nick Claxton. Thats a good base to build on. Castle’s floor is lower to me than Sarr’s. Defense only wings don’t play in the playoffs

[Dat2U]

At least Brown was a freak athlete with crazy measureables. He was 6-7 with a 7-0 wingspan who could jump out of the gym. Sometimes teams take a flyer on those top 1% athletic specimens in the hopes that they can be developed. Particularly if they're freshmen and their mediocre college numbers can be explained by inexperience.

…

I think betting on guys who are neither all that athletic nor all that prolific in college is an even riskier move. Even if you love a guy's intangibles, if he is both mediocre as an athlete as well as mediocre in production, it's unlikely to turn out well - particularly at the very top of the draft. Sure, those guys can be nice role players, but very rarely are they stars.

Not sure why we’re calling Castle mediocre in production and Athleticism. Only 3 PGs put up faster lane agility or shuttle run scores. Aside from 3pt shooting his numbers are strong across the board.

His athletic upside showed in his Defense. He showed all season he was startlingly good at walling off penetration. Covered for Clingan on the interior when the big man challenged outside and couldn’t recover.

In the NBA you play the position you can defend. Few offenses rely on ball dominant PGs any more. More are switching to motion offenses and team passing. UConn style offense. Where Castle excelled.

We are drafting for upside. Work ethic, measurables, track record.

The only skill Castle needs is an outside shot. 70+% FT suggests his shot will improve. As does his showing in workouts. If he’s playable on D as a PG He will be a mismatch vs PGs on offense. Too big too strong. And a mismatch in D vs any guard. Switchable vs many forwards. If he struggles at PG for a minute, that suits us. But to me he seems like the biggest combination of upside and likelihood to achieve it.

Can he play in the NBA? I say so.

I will happily look back on this thread and read where Dat has a ‘DO NOT DRAFT’ rating on Castle. I didn’t quote where similar things were said about Kawhi. Doubts based on his athleticism and lack of a shot. Despite clearly showing he knew how to play the game and had the strength to do so.

I think Castle IS an athletic outlier. In quickness and functional speed. Useful strength. Right he’s unusual. Doesn’t fit the mold of most PGs. But can he play the game? Will he get better?

Of players in the lotto I think only Reed Sheppard is a better actual basketball player. In terms of playing winning ball. (Plus Edey outside the lotto). only thing is Reed’s stature suggests he might lack the upside potential of Castle. Still I’d take Reed and be happy. Hell I’ll be optimistic about whomever we take. But I’m invested in Castle and would love to see his development. I think he’d be an ideal fit next to whomever we draft in the next few years. He’s good. Will get better. I know this kid can play.

And you know, Hurley loves the kid. We’d be set when he is ready to quit UConn and jump to the NBA.

Got to disagree. Check the usage rate of these PGs. Lots of ball dominance here. League avg usage rate is 16.9 which would be 40 out 50 PGs on the list below (cut off was 20 minutes per night or less to weed out the low minute shot jackers & game managers).

1. 35.7 Luka Doncic
2. 31.7 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
3. 31.7 LaMelo Ball
4. 31.3 Jalen Brunson
5. 30.4 Stephen Curry
6. 30.3 Donovan Mitchell
7. 30.0 De'Aaron Fox
8. 30.0 Cade Cunningham
9. 29.7 Ja Morant
10. 29.1 Trae Young
11. 27.6 Jamal Murray
12. 27.6 Kyrie Irving
13. 27.5 Damian Lillard
14. 27.4 Tyrese Maxey
15. 26.9 Tyler Herro
16. 26.1 Dejounte Murray
17. 26.0 Scoot Henderson
18. 25.9 Jordan Poole
19. 25.4 Terry Rozier
20. 25.1 Darius Garland
21. 24.6 C.J. McCollum
22. 24.5 Jaden Ivey
23. 24.1 Russell Westbrook
24. 23.5 Immanuel Quickley
25. 23.3 Cole Anthony
26. 23.1 T.J. McConnell
27. 22.7 Malcolm Brogdon
28. 22.7 Marcus Smart
29. 22.6 Bradley Beal
30. 22.5 Josh Giddey
31. 22.5 Coby White
32. 22.4 Keyonte George
33. 22.4 D'Angelo Russell
34. 21.3 Reggie Jackson
35. 20.3 James Harden
36. 20.3 Dennis Schroder
37. 19.5 Fred VanVleet
38. 18.5 Tre Mann
39. 18.3 Markelle Fultz
40. 16.9 Payton Pritchard
41. 16.2 Jrue Holiday
42. 16.2 Tyus Jones
43. 15.9 Mike Conley
44. 15.6 Chris Paul
45. 15.0 Tre Jones
46. 14.9 Killian Hayes
47. 14.3 Patrick Beverley
48. 12.9 Cason Wallace
49. 12.8 Kyle Lowry
50. 12.7 Ben Simmons

Only quality starters at PG with a usage rate under 20% are VanVleet, Holiday & Conley.

I note recent PG prospect usage rates:
12.4 Dyson Daniels
12.3 Anthony Black

I predict Castle will be in a similar space in terms of usage with Daniels & Black.

I also don't tie defense with upside.... defense is the floor. Offense is the ceiling. Offense is what I link upside too. Defense is what can get you on the floor as a rookie but offense is what gets a player a starting role and paid. Outlier defense can be extremely valuable (see O.G. Anunoby & Marcus Smart) but even that comes with the caveat of being a useful offensive player that's not significantly hurting spacing. No one out here is breaking the bank for Matisse Thybulle or Dennis Smith Jr.

[Dat2U]

Reading some of the responses to Sarr not wanting to play center makes me wonder why we are so set on drafting this kid. First, people think he would be our fourth best pf. That is saying a lot because Kuzma sucks and I can’t even figure out who the third quality pf could be (unless they mean Bilal). Second, people think he is a huge project at center. Third, I am reminded of what one nba analyst once said about one the wizards draft busts (I think it was about kwame, but not sure), it was something along the lines of: it doesn’t matter what position you project the player to be, what matters is what position the player projects himself to be, because that will always be how he plays the game.

Agree with this.

(The third quality PF is Bilal. In two years, that guy will be 6-9 225 with a 7-3 wingspan.)

Yall are reading way too much into the draft scuttlebutt. Remember when Wemby's camp viewed him as a PF and that playing him at C was not his skillset? No one is talking about that now. Wemby also shot 45% from the floor and 29% from 3 overseas prior to getting drafted.

Not comparing Sarr to Wemby at all but with the younger prospects projection has to be involved. I'm encouraged with his shooting volume, there's evidence that volume of attempts matter as much as the percentage prior to reaching the NBA.

[Frichuela]

Read on Twitter

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[NatP4]

Read on Twitter

[payitforward]

At least Brown was a freak athlete with crazy measureables.…

I think betting on guys who are neither all that athletic nor all that prolific in college is an even riskier move.... Sure, those guys can be nice role players, but very rarely are they stars.

Not sure why we’re calling Castle mediocre in production and Athleticism....
The only skill Castle needs is an outside shot. 70+% FT suggests his shot will improve. As does his showing in workouts.

Precisely. I have no idea whatever why there's such an outlier negative focus on Castle. He gives every indication that he's going to be a very good NBA player.

I don't think anyone has said that we should pick him over Sarr. But, if we were to trade down & get him at 7, for example, I'd be very happy about it.

[DCZards]

I expect Castle’s usage to initially be in the 10-12% range and eventually be in the upper teens to low 20s. He probably won’t ever have usage in the 30s because he’ll likely be a combo guard and connector and not a ball dominant PG.

It’s interesting to note from DAT’s list that Jrue Holiday, the player Castle says he models his game after, has a usage rate of around 16%. Yet he’s one of the top PGs in the NBA.

[tontoz]

I expect Castle’s usage to initially be in the 10-12% range and eventually be in the upper teens to low 20s. He probably won’t ever have usage in the 30s because he’ll likely be a combo guard and connector and not a ball dominant PG.

It’s interesting to note from DAT’s list that Jrue Holiday, the player Castle says he models his game after, has a usage rate of around 16%. Yet he’s one of the top PGs in the NBA.

No, he's really not. Any team with Holiday as their 1st or 2nd option isnt going anywhere.

[Frichuela]

ATL fans salty about Sarr…

Read on Twitter

?s=61&t=ICcggtNoAgpgLzxKVsmDBw

[nate33]

Continued here