LAC - New York - Cleveland - Miami - Washington

[Godaddycurse]

I think wolveswin would be proud of this one..

Cleveland trade: Garland, Niang
Cleveland receive: George (Opt in/extend and trade)

New York trade: Randle, Bogdanovic, MIL 2025 top 4 protected 1st
New York receive: Butler

LAC trade: George (opt in/extend and trade)
LAC receive: Randle, Niang

Miami trade: Butler
Miami receive: Garland, Kispert

Washington trade: Kispert
Washington receive: Bogdanovic, MIL 2025 top 4 protected 1st

Why for Cleveland: add a star 2 way wing next to mitchell
Why for New York: add a better 2nd option to help brunson win in playoffs. Thibs love butler too (i think?)
Why for LAC: avoid losing George for nothing and get a floor raising star to help them get through the regular season
Why for Miami: avoid giving butler an extension and get a recent all star pg to pair w/ Bam
Why for Washington: get a 1st for Kispert by eating some extra salary
Why for George: play 2nd option for a contending team but not in big market/less scrutiny

I have trouble figuring out the relative value of Garland/Butler/George (opt in and trade) here. How far off am i? Debated Kispert going to Cleveland instead of Miami if people think Garland > Butler/George?

Mitchell
Okoro?
George
Mobley
Allen

Brunson
DDV
Butler
OG
Hartenstein

Harden
Mann
Leonard
Randle
Zubov

Garland
Herro
Kispert
JJJ
Bam

[jbk1234]

I don't think the Cavs would trade a 24-year old Garland for Butler or PG until we'll into the summer after better options failed to materialize and he forcefully asked out. The idea of paying any of PG, Butler, or Ingram the money they want just isn't that attractive.

[BBallFreak]

I feel like New York is sucking up value. How is the upgrade from Randle to Butler worth nothing more than a Milwaukee first? Bogdanovich just isn't an incentive.

To be clear, it's the Clippers that need the incentive

[Godaddycurse]

Who does new york owe value to?

[Hoops23]

Another trade that over value Randle.

[Nazrmohamed]

I wouldn't trade Randle for Butler. Now I would trade lesser players and give a war chest of picks. Anybody like dradt picks? If I get Jimmy Butler it's because you see that spot over there that DVC occupies? Yeah, he's to slide right in there sandwiched between Brinson and OG.


Finally OG is not a PF. He doesn't rebound well enough to be a longterm PF so all these trades which assume OG just slides over, forget them. Josh Hart is more likely to play PF than OG if you had been watching.

[mhd]

No for the Wizards. Kispert is likely going to extend (it won't be expensive) according to Wizards bear writer Josh Robbins and provides much needed spacing to help the younger players and evaluate them. It is much tougher for Bilal (and this year's draft picks) to grow when the offense lacks the spacing that Kispert provides.

[penbeast0]

If the Wiz think Kispert will leave, then sure. But if he's willing to extend on a contract like that of Kuzma/Avdija where he gets market value but the Wiz get to front load it, then Kispert will probably be worth more as the contract declines assuming health. He's been a very consistent shooter since he came into the league while improving his ability to drive and score on ball to bring his usage up from 12-15 to around 20.

[cgf]

I feel like New York is sucking up value. How of the upgrade from Randle to Butler worth nothing more than a Milwaukee first? Bogdanovich just isn't incentive.

To be clear, it's the Clippers that need the incentive

I'd agree that we probably owe another one of our non-future-NYK picks, but with the age gap and contract demands, I wouldn't be surprised if the value gap wasn't as big as we think. I'd be on board with giving Jimmy the contract he wants because of how well he should fit on paper...both on the court and in the locker-room...but I get why other franchises would be hesitant.

I would certainly be excited by this, but part of me would be disappointed we never got to see a healthy Julius Randle in the playoffs with Brunson...especially cause it was you pricks that injured him both of these last two years

[nate33]

If the Wiz think Kispert will leave, then sure. But if he's willing to extend on a contract like that of Kuzma/Avdija where he gets market value but the Wiz get to front load it, then Kispert will probably be worth more as the contract declines assuming health. He's been a very consistent shooter since he came into the league while improving his ability to drive and score on ball to bring his usage up from 12-15 to around 20.

This.

The Wizards will try and extend Kispert as soon as the July Moratorium ends. I'm sure they will try and work out a deal at roughly MLE money with declining salaries like the Avdija deal. If they can't work out a deal, then, sure, trading Kispert for a future pick is better than letting him walk. But if a deal can be worked out, I'd rather have Kispert at roughly MLE money than a very late pick in the 2025 draft.

People still don't seem to grasp how rebuilding a team is different under the new CBA. In the past, it was always a default assumption that it's better to trade vets for pick capital rather than pay them market-value contracts. After all, what good is a 25-year-old role player on an MLE contract for a team that is rebuilding? It would be better to just dump that salary to improve tanking chances.

But the difference today is the minimum salary threshold. Teams have to get to a salary of $127M, which is practically impossible if all you have are rookie contract guys. If you can use surplus cap room to buy dead weight contracts in exchange for picks, that's one way to add salary and get to the minimum salary threshold. But there are very few bad contracts out there in this era of a rapidly rising cap, and with so many bad teams having cap room, they're driving down the cost to offload bad contracts. The next best thing is to sign a good youngish veteran to a declining salary contract so that he is overpaid early in his contract and underpaid later. It's another way of using surplus cap room now to provide value in the future. This is what the Wizards did with Avdija and Kuzma, and I expect them to do it again with Kispert.

Three years from now, Kispert will be on a substantially below market contract which will help provide the Wizards cheap depth, or be an asset to trade for something else.

[oldncreaky]

Agree that NYK is stealing value, and I have a higher opinion of Randle than most

I'm curious what valuation you're assigning Bojan Bogdanovic. I have him as neutral at best, but more likely movable for a small incentive. At $19M he's paid like a starter, but to me he is now a situational bench piece who's going to drop out of the rotation on a playoff team.

[Godaddycurse]

Agree that NYK is stealing value, and I have a higher opinion of Randle than most

I'm curious what valuation you're assigning Bojan Bogdanovic. I have him as neutral at best, but more likely movable for a small incentive. At $19M he's paid like a starter, but to me he is now a situational bench piece who's going to drop out of the rotation on a playoff team.

kispert = multiple 2nds
bogdanovic = multiple 2nds to dump

so washington gets a late 1st for the transaction

[oldncreaky]

Agree that NYK is stealing value, and I have a higher opinion of Randle than most

I'm curious what valuation you're assigning Bojan Bogdanovic. I have him as neutral at best, but more likely movable for a small incentive. At $19M he's paid like a starter, but to me he is now a situational bench piece who's going to drop out of the rotation on a playoff team.

kispert = multiple 2nds
bogdanovic = multiple 2nds to dump

so washington gets a late 1st for the transaction

OK, that part I agree with

Then on the NYK portion: Randle + FRP + Bogie <===> Randle + FRP - 2 SRPs

I don't think that's enough for Butler

[Godaddycurse]

Agree that NYK is stealing value, and I have a higher opinion of Randle than most

I'm curious what valuation you're assigning Bojan Bogdanovic. I have him as neutral at best, but more likely movable for a small incentive. At $19M he's paid like a starter, but to me he is now a situational bench piece who's going to drop out of the rotation on a playoff team.

kispert = multiple 2nds
bogdanovic = multiple 2nds to dump

so washington gets a late 1st for the transaction

OK, that part I agree with

Then on the NYK portion: Randle + FRP + Bogie <===> Randle + FRP - 2 SRPs

I don't think that's enough for Butler

ya i agree with the general consensus this is a FRP short from NYK, but i dont know wwho that FRP should go to? Cleveland?

[oldncreaky]

kispert = multiple 2nds
bogdanovic = multiple 2nds to dump

so washington gets a late 1st for the transaction

OK, that part I agree with

Then on the NYK portion: Randle + FRP + Bogie <===> Randle + FRP - 2 SRPs

I don't think that's enough for Butler

ya i agree with the general consensus this is a FRP short from NYK, but i dont know wwho that FRP should go to? Cleveland?

That's where it gets tricky: I think each of the other 4 teams in the trade can make a case for wanting some additional value. Cleveland might have the best argument, but everyone's mileage will vary. Or you get into complicated exchanges of SRPs and possibly swaps, which personally I find hard to value and hard to follow . . . simple trades are better