Simple Knicks Offseason

[R-DAWG]

Everyone is saying that the OG number - 35mm per year over 4 years - $140mm total is light. But looking at the cap space landscape - outside of Philly - who is positioned to make him a larger offer and have it fit in with their team long term.

Only 4 teams - Detroit, Orlando, Philadelphia and Detroit have enough space to sign him outright. Orlando already has a full front court so we are down to 3 teams.

I don’t see Detroit committing big long term money, I see their approach being a short term approach similar to Houston this offseason and Tobias Harris being a better fit.

So now we’re down to Utah who isn’t a win now team.

Going back to Philly, if they use their cap space to sign OG, they will have just shy of 20mm in cap space plus the room MLE to round out a roster that features Embid, Maxey, OG, Pual Reed, their 2024 1st and some dude named Counsel. While the best version of OG is a perfect fit for this roster, is there enough depth here? It’s one thing if you sign a true star like Paul George and figure it out with depth. But OG isn’t on that level. If I’m Philly, signing DeRozan starting at 25-30mm and using the balance on the space on 2-3 players is a more attractive option.

OKC is the only other team that is close to having the cap space, but after the carusso trade, their other roster needs, and future payroll needs I don’t see this as being realistic.

[R-DAWG]

Ya i think OG costs a decent chunk more and IH isnt returning for anything less than the max NY can offer (tho maybe, if OKC doesnt want him, he might not have a market).

And agree with Chuck. NY is about to hit the 2nd apron after Brunson re-signs next offseason for like 60 mill/year meaning this offseason and trade deadline very well could be the last chance the Knicks have at improving on this iteration of their squad. You got picks and contracts like Robinson...Knicks should be taking their shot.

Brunson’s max will be closer to 45MM than 60mm

The way you skirt the 2nd apron in this scenario is using your draft picks to develop young, cost cost controlled players. In my example, you develop Ryan Dunn and after this season trade Josh Hart - which turns a 20mm player into a 3mm player. Same with Mitch Rob/Flipowski.

If NY can rebuild a stable of rookie scale rotation players and move off some of the role players they have on market rate deals, it lengthens the window to build a true contender around Brunson.

[Godaddycurse]

Ya i think OG costs a decent chunk more and IH isnt returning for anything less than the max NY can offer (tho maybe, if OKC doesnt want him, he might not have a market).

And agree with Chuck. NY is about to hit the 2nd apron after Brunson re-signs next offseason for like 60 mill/year meaning this offseason and trade deadline very well could be the last chance the Knicks have at improving on this iteration of their squad. You got picks and contracts like Robinson...Knicks should be taking their shot.

Brunson’s max will be closer to 45MM than 60mm

The way you skirt the 2nd apron in this scenario is using your draft picks to develop young, cost cost controlled players. In my example, you develop Ryan Dunn and after this season trade Josh Hart - which turns a 20mm player into a 3mm player. Same with Mitch Rob/Flipowski.

If NY can rebuild a stable of rookie scale rotation players and move off some of the role players they have on market rate deals, it lengthens the window to build a true contender around Brunson.

If he signs for 35 percent of the cap (155M/ it will ne about 55M starting salary

[Texas Chuck]

teams without cap space sign free agents every year. And if your counter is well the Knicks just won't play along. Now you are trying to set up a scenario where you have low balled a guy, refused to work with him with a team that will pay him. And think this is a great result?

These are humans, not just items on a spreadsheet. All the guy did once he got to New York was help you win basically every game he played while giving you exactly what you traded for him for. I wouldn't want to immediately tick him off like this.

[R-DAWG]

teams without cap space sign free agents every year. And if your counter is well the Knicks just won't play along. Now you are trying to set up a scenario where you have low balled a guy, refused to work with him with a team that will pay him. And think this is a great result?

These are humans, not just items on a spreadsheet. All the guy did once he got to New York was help you win basically every game he played while giving you exactly what you traded for him for. I wouldn't want to immediately tick him off like this.

I'm more than happy to work out sign and trade for OG that brings the Knicks back assets if he can secure a contract that makes it difficult for us to build around elsewhere. So go find me a team that can bring me back picks and useful players on reasonable deals.

Sure, these guys are humans, but this is also a business. And I will make the argument that while OG was great in January, he wasn't available when he was needed most, which has been a constant throughout his career. The Knicks need to do what's best for the Knicks, not just bid against themselves.

Call me crazy, but I don't feel a need to double down on a team that can't get out of the 2nd round of the playoffs. I say this all the time, the Knicks need to tread carefully with this payroll, because they are heading down the path of becoming a very expensive treadmill team. That's why I'm more than happy running it back and staying flexible. And paying a guy who is a 3rd best player at best $40MM per year is the path to being a very mediocre basketball team.

[R-DAWG]

Ya i think OG costs a decent chunk more and IH isnt returning for anything less than the max NY can offer (tho maybe, if OKC doesnt want him, he might not have a market).

And agree with Chuck. NY is about to hit the 2nd apron after Brunson re-signs next offseason for like 60 mill/year meaning this offseason and trade deadline very well could be the last chance the Knicks have at improving on this iteration of their squad. You got picks and contracts like Robinson...Knicks should be taking their shot.

Brunson’s max will be closer to 45MM than 60mm

The way you skirt the 2nd apron in this scenario is using your draft picks to develop young, cost cost controlled players. In my example, you develop Ryan Dunn and after this season trade Josh Hart - which turns a 20mm player into a 3mm player. Same with Mitch Rob/Flipowski.

If NY can rebuild a stable of rookie scale rotation players and move off some of the role players they have on market rate deals, it lengthens the window to build a true contender around Brunson.

If he signs for 35 percent of the cap (155M/ it will ne about 55M starting salary

He's not a 10 year vet thus only eligible for a 30% max. And he's not on his original team so not supermax eligible either.

[Godaddycurse]

Brunson’s max will be closer to 45MM than 60mm

The way you skirt the 2nd apron in this scenario is using your draft picks to develop young, cost cost controlled players. In my example, you develop Ryan Dunn and after this season trade Josh Hart - which turns a 20mm player into a 3mm player. Same with Mitch Rob/Flipowski.

If NY can rebuild a stable of rookie scale rotation players and move off some of the role players they have on market rate deals, it lengthens the window to build a true contender around Brunson.

If he signs for 35 percent of the cap (155M/ it will ne about 55M starting salary

He's not a 10 year vet thus only eligible for a 30% max. And he's not on his original team so not supermax eligible either.

ah he signed as a FA so is not eligible. my mistake

[Knickfan1982]

I would pass on Dunn if I was the Knicks. Turn one of your late 24 1st into multiple 2nds and draft some more depth or trade both and free up the guaranteed salary to help with your signings.

No need to waste a first that way. We already have 3 picks from 24-38. We don't need more.

I don't want them to waste a first either. Maybe find a way of kicking either or both picks down the road a year or two.

I can see trading one of those picks for a future pick in the hopes of it turning out to be slightly more valuable while saving money against the current tax. I wouldn't want to as there are a few prospects I really like and think would be helpful in our range. But I could see the justification for it.

[R-DAWG]

No need to waste a first that way. We already have 3 picks from 24-38. We don't need more.

I don't want them to waste a first either. Maybe find a way of kicking either or both picks down the road a year or two.

I can see trading one of those picks for a future pick in the hopes of it turning out to be slightly more valuable while saving money against the current tax. I wouldn't want to as there are a few prospects I really like and think would be helpful in our range. But I could see the justification for it.

I think the most likely scenario is keeping one pick, trading off the 2nd but likely for a package of 2nds, and using a few of those picks plus #38 to move back into the late 1st rd. This is consistent with how Leon Rose has operated the draft over the last handful of years.

I think it's very important for the Knicks to replace the rookie scale talent that they have had over the last few seasons. As I keep saying, this roster is getting too expensive for what it is. We need to face the reality that keeping both Hartenstein and Robinson, and even both Hart and Anunoby isn't going to be possible after next season.

[Knickfan1982]

teams without cap space sign free agents every year. And if your counter is well the Knicks just won't play along. Now you are trying to set up a scenario where you have low balled a guy, refused to work with him with a team that will pay him. And think this is a great result?

These are humans, not just items on a spreadsheet. All the guy did once he got to New York was help you win basically every game he played while giving you exactly what you traded for him for. I wouldn't want to immediately tick him off like this.

I'm more than happy to work out sign and trade for OG that brings the Knicks back assets if he can secure a contract that makes it difficult for us to build around elsewhere. So go find me a team that can bring me back picks and useful players on reasonable deals.

Sure, these guys are humans, but this is also a business. And I will make the argument that while OG was great in January, he wasn't available when he was needed most, which has been a constant throughout his career. The Knicks need to do what's best for the Knicks, not just bid against themselves.

Call me crazy, but I don't feel a need to double down on a team that can't get out of the 2nd round of the playoffs. I say this all the time, the Knicks need to tread carefully with this payroll, because they are heading down the path of becoming a very expensive treadmill team. That's why I'm more than happy running it back and staying flexible. And paying a guy who is a 3rd best player at best $40MM per year is the path to being a very mediocre basketball team.

I disagree with your perception of this team. I think injuries are the one thing that kept us from advancing this year. Injuries and the trade that brought us OG caused a severely lack of depth compared to the Pacers and I think that killed us.

[JayTWill]

teams without cap space sign free agents every year. And if your counter is well the Knicks just won't play along. Now you are trying to set up a scenario where you have low balled a guy, refused to work with him with a team that will pay him. And think this is a great result?

These are humans, not just items on a spreadsheet. All the guy did once he got to New York was help you win basically every game he played while giving you exactly what you traded for him for. I wouldn't want to immediately tick him off like this.

I'm more than happy to work out sign and trade for OG that brings the Knicks back assets if he can secure a contract that makes it difficult for us to build around elsewhere. So go find me a team that can bring me back picks and useful players on reasonable deals.

Sure, these guys are humans, but this is also a business. And I will make the argument that while OG was great in January, he wasn't available when he was needed most, which has been a constant throughout his career. The Knicks need to do what's best for the Knicks, not just bid against themselves.

Call me crazy, but I don't feel a need to double down on a team that can't get out of the 2nd round of the playoffs. I say this all the time, the Knicks need to tread carefully with this payroll, because they are heading down the path of becoming a very expensive treadmill team. That's why I'm more than happy running it back and staying flexible. And paying a guy who is a 3rd best player at best $40MM per year is the path to being a very mediocre basketball team.

I disagree with your perception of this team. I think injuries are the one thing that kept us from advancing this year. Injuries and the trade that brought us OG caused a severely lack of depth compared to the Pacers and I think that killed us.

I agree that the Knicks lack of depth and injuries were a huge issue but I always wonder if the Knicks would have possibly still lost at full strength. The Knicks were running an 8 man rotation of Brunson, DDV, Hart, OG, iHart, McBride, Mitch and Bogey barely holding onto the last spot. If Randle was healthy I could easily see Bogey completely removed from the rotation.

And even if Bogey remained in the rotation he along with Julius and Mitch aren't the greatest matchups defensively against the Pacer's style. I assume Thibs would have kept the shortened rotation without Burks and Precious and tried to slow the pace down but Randle, Bogey and Mitch aren't great defensively against a high powered offensive team with a frantic pace and stretch bigs that is also willing to go small at the 5.

Offensively Randle has had his struggles in the postseason. Bogey despite shooting 40% from 3 shot 29% overall in the playoffs and Mitch is Mitch. I'm not sure if what they bring offensively would makeup for the defensive disadvantage. One of the biggest advantages I honestly see of the Knicks having full health besides rebounding and a second creator would be a bigger body in Randle to throw at Siakam in the half court to free OG up to make a defensive impact elsewhere.

I'm curious how the contrasting styles would have matched up at full strength but I don't want to get caught up in the team's success in January and expect that to translate to the postseason. I'm not too worried OG's contract pushing them towards treadmill status but I also don't believe this current version of the Knicks' is a true championship contender and would love to make some adjustments to the core this year.

[R-DAWG]

I'm more than happy to work out sign and trade for OG that brings the Knicks back assets if he can secure a contract that makes it difficult for us to build around elsewhere. So go find me a team that can bring me back picks and useful players on reasonable deals.

Sure, these guys are humans, but this is also a business. And I will make the argument that while OG was great in January, he wasn't available when he was needed most, which has been a constant throughout his career. The Knicks need to do what's best for the Knicks, not just bid against themselves.

Call me crazy, but I don't feel a need to double down on a team that can't get out of the 2nd round of the playoffs. I say this all the time, the Knicks need to tread carefully with this payroll, because they are heading down the path of becoming a very expensive treadmill team. That's why I'm more than happy running it back and staying flexible. And paying a guy who is a 3rd best player at best $40MM per year is the path to being a very mediocre basketball team.

I disagree with your perception of this team. I think injuries are the one thing that kept us from advancing this year. Injuries and the trade that brought us OG caused a severely lack of depth compared to the Pacers and I think that killed us.

I agree that the Knicks lack of depth and injuries were a huge issue but I always wonder if the Knicks would have possibly still lost at full strength. The Knicks were running an 8 man rotation of Brunson, DDV, Hart, OG, iHart, McBride, Mitch and Bogey barely holding onto the last spot. If Randle was healthy I could easily see Bogey completely removed from the rotation.

And even if Bogey remained in the rotation he along with Julius and Mitch aren't the greatest matchups defensively against the Pacer's style. I assume Thibs would have kept the shortened rotation without Burks and Precious and tried to slow the pace down but Randle, Bogey and Mitch aren't great defensively against a high powered offensive team with a frantic pace and stretch bigs that is also willing to go small at the 5.

I think we close out the Pacers in 5 games if OG doesn't get hurt. But that's the real issue with OG. He's always hurt.

Offensively Randle has had his struggles in the postseason. Bogey despite shooting 40% from 3 shot 29% overall in the playoffs and Mitch is Mitch. I'm not sure if what they bring offensively would makeup for the defensive disadvantage. One of the biggest advantages I honestly see of the Knicks having full health besides rebounding and a second creator would be a bigger body in Randle to throw at Siakam in the half court to free OG up to make a defensive impact elsewhere.

I'm curious how the contrasting styles would have matched up at full strength but I don't want to get caught up in the team's success in January and expect that to translate to the postseason. I'm not too worried OG's contract pushing them towards treadmill status but I also don't believe this current version of the Knicks' is a true championship contender and would love to make some adjustments to the core this year.

I think we all can agree that the path to being a true championship contender starts with turning Julius Randle - who is a top 25sh level player - into a top 12 player that has more of a history of playoff success. Ie Paul George, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Durant and Lebron James given where the rumor mill is today.

Look - I have no problem with the Knicks making the OG trade when they did. If there was any year to push some chips in the middle of the table this was it. The conference was a mess and this Boston team isn't close to the same level of dominant as peak Warriors or HEATles.

[cgf]

I hate to say it needs a bit more to sign OG. Not many quality free agents and a fair bit of cap space. I could se a deal starting at 35 with raises maybe. 4/160 getting it done. I dont think he would or should sign a flat deal at his age.

That’s basically what I assumed it would cost when we traded for him and will be shocked if it’s any less.