2024 Draft Prospect: Dalton Knecht

[KembaWalker]

There is a degree of appeal to drafting a 23 year old and figuring out if he sucks or not right away so you can just cut bait without convincing yourselves they need another full contract cycle to develop

[JMAC3]

If Knecht is Corey Kispert and he goes 9th and we take a complete bust at 6th how devastated are we?

[Chapelchilla]

If Knecht is Corey Kispert and he goes 9th and we take a complete bust at 6th how devastated are we?

Knecht is a LOT more athletic than Kispert. He can go to the hole strongly and finish above the rim. Kispert is stiffer and has less hops. They are not the same kind of player.
Even so, Kispert just averaged 13.4/3/2 on 38% from the 3 so he is not useless. If that is the floor for Knecht and the ceiling is like Thunder Dan that’s not a bad pick in this draft.

[JMAC3]

If Knecht is Corey Kispert and he goes 9th and we take a complete bust at 6th how devastated are we?

Knecht is a LOT more athletic than Kispert. He can go to the hole strongly and finish above the rim. Kispert is stiffer and has less hops. They are not the same kind of player.
Even so, Kispert just averaged 13.4/3/2 on 38% from the 3 so he is not useless. If that is the floor for Knecht and the ceiling is like Thunder Dan that’s not a bad pick in this draft.

I am not talking about ceilings or floors tho. I am saying assume Knecht hits a medium outcome of 13/3/2 on good percentages and we draft Cody Williams and he flops like a Kevin Knox type. Is this a draft we look back on and as a huge missed opportunity by not taking Knecht?

[JMAC3]

Similar to what I did for Devin Carter....The closest comps in my database are

Terrence Shannon Jr., Gradey Dick, Dalton Knecht, Kevin McCullar Jr., Stephon Castle, Klay Thompson, DeMar DeRozan, Julian Strawther, Doug McDermott, Kyle Korver

Parameters:
Height: 6'5-6'6.5
Weight: 204-220 lbs
Wingspan: 6'8.5-6'9.75

Note: There are other names (total 30)

[Snidely FC]

ESPN+ analytics guru Kevin Pelton ranks Knecht #35 based on statistical projection

Knecht, a sure top-10 pick, rated below replacement level based on his stats. One of the factors that makes my projections unique is weighing earlier seasons more heavily because of the importance of excelling at a young age. Knecht didn't emerge as an above-average college player until his second season at Northern Colorado, after two in junior college, and wasn't considered a first-round NBA prospect until averaging 21.7 PPG last season at Tennessee.

Beyond that, Knecht's low rates of assists, steals and blocks hurt his projection. His combined rate of those three nonscoring contributions is lowest for any player ranked in ESPN's top 30. Of the 10 players in my database whose statistical profile were most similar to Knecht's, just two (Joe Harris and Danuel House Jr.) played 1,000 minutes in the NBA.

There have been five players age 22 or older drafted in the top 10 in the past decade: Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield, Frank Kaminsky, Davion Mitchell and Obi Toppin. Of those picks, only Hield has become a capable starter, and the numbers don't suggest Knecht is likely to change that trend.

[Bassman]

ESPN+ analytics guru Kevin Pelton ranks Knecht #35 based on statistical projection

Knecht, a sure top-10 pick, rated below replacement level based on his stats. One of the factors that makes my projections unique is weighing earlier seasons more heavily because of the importance of excelling at a young age. Knecht didn't emerge as an above-average college player until his second season at Northern Colorado, after two in junior college, and wasn't considered a first-round NBA prospect until averaging 21.7 PPG last season at Tennessee.

Beyond that, Knecht's low rates of assists, steals and blocks hurt his projection. His combined rate of those three nonscoring contributions is lowest for any player ranked in ESPN's top 30. Of the 10 players in my database whose statistical profile were most similar to Knecht's, just two (Joe Harris and Danuel House Jr.) played 1,000 minutes in the NBA.

There have been five players age 22 or older drafted in the top 10 in the past decade: Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield, Frank Kaminsky, Davion Mitchell and Obi Toppin. Of those picks, only Hield has become a capable starter, and the numbers don't suggest Knecht is likely to change that trend.

Good info to add to the equations. His analysis data points do skew to college stats which can overtly influence for better or worse. Not saying it’s wrong or bad. Based on his formula, his top 10 group is Sheppard, Clingan, Sarr, Edey, Furphy, Walter, Risarcher, McCain, George, Castle. Interesting stuff but said never use it exclusively.

[MasterIchiro]

Is he very different from Chris Duarte?

[amcoolio]

Is he very different from Chris Duarte?

I like him better than Duarte because he's bigger and stronger, but I think his level of impact is around there which means I really don't want to take him at 6. Like the stats above, the odds are very low on him being anything better than a bench role player

[JustBuzzin]

Is he very different from Chris Duarte?

I like him better than Duarte because he's bigger and stronger, but I think his level of impact is around there which means I really don't want to take him at 6. Like the stats above, the odds are very low on him being anything better than a bench role player

Knecht is the best scorer in this draft.

The age is the only thing I'm hesitant about when it comes to him. He's my early favorite for rookie of the year simply because I think he will be pro ready from day 1.

I see Knecht as a 15-18ppg kind of player. He can be a potential 3rd option if we were to draft him.

[wilson115]

Knecht knows he needs to improve at least. That's a start.

Read on Twitter

[EmpireFalls]

Knecht may have improved like 5% on defense this year but he has a long long way to go… his defensive stance is utterly absurd even for pickup basketball it’s way too high and it causes all sorts of problems.

We talk about having to start from scratch with shooting, we are going to have to start from scratch with Knecht’s entire approach to the defensive side of the ball. He’s 23. Not great.

Good news is it’s easier to learn NBA defense than it is to be a knockdown movement shooter. But the degree to which it is easier is not as big as most realize.

[luciano-davidwesley]

I just hope we pick anyone but Knecht

[Lwcasu]

Knecht may have improved like 5% on defense this year but he has a long long way to go… his defensive stance is utterly absurd even for pickup basketball it’s way too high and it causes all sorts of problems.

We talk about having to start from scratch with shooting, we are going to have to start from scratch with Knecht’s entire approach to the defensive side of the ball. He’s 23. Not great.

Good news is it’s easier to learn NBA defense than it is to be a knockdown movement shooter. But the degree to which it is easier is not as big as most realize.

Watch on YouTube

;pp=ygUdZGFsdG9uIGtuZWNodCBzY291dGluZyByZXBvcnQ%3D

I liked this scouting report of him. Compared him to Rudy Gay. 5:50 talks about his bad defender but also discusses positives. I’ve also seen a lot of people compare him to Klay Thompson. I can see it offensively but not defensively. Klay at his peak was a good defender.

[Bassman]

Here is the entire comment from X on Dalton’s improvement in defense while at Tennessee:

Dalton Knecht said he chose to play at Tennessee because NBA scouts said he needed to improve his defense & who better to help him with that than Tennessee’s Rick Barnes. Tennessee has been top 5 in adjusted defensive efficiency in four straight seasons…

Last year at Northern Colorado Knecht allowed 0.959 points per possession when his man finished a play, this season at Tennessee he is allowing 0.655 (top 10% nationally). Per @SynergySST

While the difference may seem slight, it is a huge improvement statistically. The metric put his defense in the top 10% nationally for that category. It means Knecht IS coachable, has the capability to play D at a high level, and could become a plus defender within the team concept. His size enables him to switch out more easily than Sheppard could, so he does bring some pluses in that regard.

[SWedd523]

It also shows that he's not necessarily maxed out on his growth curve