2024 Draft Thread - Part III

[DCZards]

Don’t pencil Sarr into our lineup just yet, god I hope Risacher is not the backup plan, ATL is playing some chess here.

The better analogy is poker, not chess.

Atlanta really wants Washington to believe that they will draft Sarr at #1. Ideally for Atlanta, they extort Washington to make a big sacrifice to move up that one spot. At the very least, I'm sure they're pushing to grab our #26 pick. But the reason I say it's poker because I think they're bluffing. They don't really want Sarr. He is a bad fit for them because they need immediate help, not a project. And the fact that Sarr didn't even work out there speaks volumes. Not only does it suggest Sarr doesn't want to play there, but it also suggests that Atlanta couldn't even maintain the facade that they were truly interested in Sarr.

You’re probably right that the Hawks don’t want to draft Sarr. But I’m not as convinced of it as you are. I can see ATL viewing Sarr as easily the BPA and expecting/hoping that they can improve the team for the short-term through trades or free agency.

Clingan may be the better big man pick for immediate help but I believe that’s being shortsighted and the ATL FO may see it that way as well. They may indeed be playing chess.

The fact that Sarr has not visited ATL means something or nothing at the same time. It wouldn’t be the first time a team drafted a player it didn’t work out.

I’m increasingly looking forward to seeing Sarr in a Zards uni. I hope ATL doesn’t crush that vision.

[willbcocks]

If Atlanta really liked a player more than others, they would just draft them and make those signals clear, as typically happens of first overall picks. Given that, to continue the poker analogy, their hand is not that strong. If they don't like him that much more than the other picks, why would they pick him while he's giving clear signals that he doesn't want to be in Atlanta?

Maybe they have a slight preference for him and decide to go for him despite the friction, but I think Vegas's odds at this point are well-calibrated, and they currently have Sarr at +650, with Risacher at -240 and Clingan at +230.

[Dat2U]

Unless someone shocking drops, I'm leaning towards Nikola Djurisic at #26. His game just exploded once Topic left Mega. A legit 6-8 like Topic ... the difference is Djurisic is a wing with playmaking skill. I have Djurisic slightly higher than Topic due to his shooting ability while still having high level passing skill + the added benefit of being to play off the ball in a scaled down role.

[Frichuela]

If Atlanta really liked a player more than others, they would just draft them and make those signals clear, as typically happens of first overall picks. Given that, to continue the poker analogy, their hand is not that strong. If they don't like him that much more than the other picks, why would they pick him while he's giving clear signals that he doesn't want to be in Atlanta?

Maybe they have a slight preference for him and decide to go for him despite the friction, but I think Vegas's odds at this point are well-calibrated, and they currently have Sarr at +650, with Risacher at -240 and Clingan at +230.

Agreed. In any case, we should call their bluff. I wouldn't even give them the #52 pick...

Read on Twitter

[NatP4]

That is just a random dude on twitter. Monday before the draft is peak smokescreen day. Don't even buy the "Sarr doesn't want to play the 4" stuff.

[nate33]

If Atlanta really liked a player more than others, they would just draft them and make those signals clear, as typically happens of first overall picks. Given that, to continue the poker analogy, their hand is not that strong. If they don't like him that much more than the other picks, why would they pick him while he's giving clear signals that he doesn't want to be in Atlanta?

Maybe they have a slight preference for him and decide to go for him despite the friction, but I think Vegas's odds at this point are well-calibrated, and they currently have Sarr at +650, with Risacher at -240 and Clingan at +230.

Agreed. In any case, we should call their bluff. I wouldn't even give them the #52 pick...

Read on Twitter

Yeah, you're probably right. Don't even give them anything prior to their selection. If they actually draft Sarr, then maybe we offer the #52 pick, but make them take the risk of drafting the guy they don't actually want before rewarding them anything at all.

What would be funny, and entirely plausible, is if they draft Sarr with the intent to force us to trade up, and we don't take the bait at all. Then, just before we pick our guy at #2, they acquiesce and trade Sarr for our #2 pick for nothing at all in return. Even funnier would be if we extract a SRP from them to make the trade after they've realized that they screwed themselves by drafting Sarr in the first place.

[Rafael122]

Again, just a reminder, it's like with the Commanders and Jayden Daniels, most of the noise came outside of the Commanders office. Similar situation, IMO here, where the leaks aren't coming from the Wizards but other agents/scouts trying to put two and two together.

[DCZards]

Yeah, you're probably right. Don't even give them anything prior to their selection. If they actually draft Sarr, then maybe we offer the #52 pick, but make them take the risk of drafting the guy they don't actually want before rewarding them anything at all.

What would be funny, and entirely plausible, is if they draft Sarr with the intent to force us to trade up, and we don't take the bait at all. Then, just before we pick our guy at #2, they acquiesce and trade Sarr for our #2 pick for nothing at all in return. Even funnier would be if we extract a SRP from them to make the trade after they've realized that they screwed themselves by drafting Sarr in the first place.

If ATL drafts Sarr it will be either because they want him or that they already know they have a trade for him with the Zards or another team.

I don’t see any scenario where the Hawks put themselves in a position where they could end up with a player they don’t really want.

[Rafael122]

Also, we're in no position to give up an additional FRP to move up 1 spot. I think Winger/Dawkins are content staying at 2 and picking up Risacher and figuring it out from there.

[NatP4]

Also, we're in no position to give up an additional FRP to move up 1 spot. I think Winger/Dawkins are content staying at 2 and picking up Risacher and figuring it out from there.

I agree, don't try and move up. Acquire more assets, don't give them away. Sarr is not worth moving up.

This is the only real disastrous scenario. Risacher has bust potential. Non-existent shot creation/playmaking upside, average defense, subpar measurements/athleticism, streaky shooting. Had his good games at the right portions of the draft cycle, and followed up an extremely strong French league draft class. Taking him as opposed to Sheppard(or trading down), would be an egregious mistake.

Just my opinion.

[payitforward]

If Atlanta really liked a player more than others, they would just draft them and make those signals clear, as typically happens of first overall picks. Given that, to continue the poker analogy, their hand is not that strong. If they don't like him that much more than the other picks, why would they pick him while he's giving clear signals that he doesn't want to be in Atlanta?

Maybe they have a slight preference for him and decide to go for him despite the friction, but I think Vegas's odds at this point are well-calibrated, and they currently have Sarr at +650, with Risacher at -240 and Clingan at +230.

Agreed. In any case, we should call their bluff. I wouldn't even give them the #52 pick...

Read on Twitter

Yeah, you're probably right. Don't even give them anything prior to their selection. If they actually draft Sarr, then maybe we offer the #52 pick, but make them take the risk of drafting the guy they don't actually want before rewarding them anything at all.

What would be funny, and entirely plausible, is if they draft Sarr with the intent to force us to trade up, and we don't take the bait at all. Then, just before we pick our guy at #2, they acquiesce and trade Sarr for our #2 pick for nothing at all in return. Even funnier would be if we extract a SRP from them to make the trade after they've realized that they screwed themselves by drafting Sarr in the first place.

I love it, but I think we can forget about that idea. Landry Fields is a very smart dude. He won't paint himself into a corner.

[payitforward]

Also, we're in no position to give up an additional FRP to move up 1 spot. I think Winger/Dawkins are content staying at 2 and picking up Risacher and figuring it out from there.

I agree, don't try and move up. Acquire more assets, don't give them away. Sarr is not worth moving up.

This is the only real disastrous scenario. Rissacher has bust potential. Non-existent shot creation/playmaking upside, average defense, subpar measurements/athleticism, streaky shooting. Had his good games at the right portions of the draft cycle, and followed up an extremely strong French league draft class. Taking him over Sheppard(or trading down) would be an egregious mistake.

Just my opinion.

I'm not much of a Rissacher fan, but I don't see why trading down would be an error.

[NatP4]

I'm not much of a Rissacher fan, but I don't see why trading down would be an error.

Worded that poorly. *taking Risacher as opposed to taking Sheppard/or trading down, would be an egregious mistake*

[payitforward]

...In fact, come to think of it, I can imagine a trade down that yielded Topic & significant other assets; might turn out great. E.g. all our picks for all Portland's picks might conceivably yield Holland, Topic or Edey, Durisic & KJ Simpson (or Bona or Mogbo).

[NatP4]

...In fact, come to think of it, I can imagine a trade down that yielded Topic & significant other assets; might turn out great. E.g. all our picks for all Portland's picks might conceivably yield Holland, Topic or Edey, Durisic & KJ Simpson (or Bona or Mogbo).

A Kuzma-Topic trade makes way too much sense.

Washington is reportedly shopping Kuzma, seeking another 1st round pick.

Topic projected range: 8-15ish, featuring a number of teams that have had reported interest in Kuzma including SAS/SAC/OKC/Chicago. Only teams in the lottery that are not invested in lead ball handler/PGs are Washington/SAS/Utah.

2025 draft is loaded, Washington 1st round pick is top 10 protected, need to make a concerted effort to tank. Topic sitting out a year to rehab is perfect.

You can apply similar logic to the other PGs that are dropping in Collier/Dillingham, though I’m not a fan. The trade just makes sense.

[payitforward]

I suppose it's natural to concentrate on that single super-high pick, even in a draft that seems thin up top. But, it's important to recall that we have, basically, nothing -- or as close to nothing as possible. We're starting over.

We've got Deni, & we've got 1 guy w/ great promise, Bilal. Essentially, that's it. The rest is just a couple of maybes & a long list of guys on their way out. maybe we'll get something for 1 or 2 of them.

In short, we need to add as much talent as possible from this draft, & the biggest piece of capital we can use to get that talent is our #2 pick. Maybe we should use that capital to add Sarr, if he's there. In case he's not there, if I'm Will, I'm looking for ways to trade down. Or acquire more picks.

[badinage]

Unless someone shocking drops, I'm leaning towards Nikola Djurisic at #26. His game just exploded once Topic left Mega. A legit 6-8 like Topic ... the difference is Djurisic is a wing with playmaking skill. I have Djurisic slightly higher than Topic due to his shooting ability while still having high level passing skill + the added benefit of being to play off the ball in a scaled down role.

YES!

I’m glad to hear this, Dat. Your draft eye is amazing.

I think he’s so so intriguing, and would be an amazing get for this team.

[nate33]

Unless someone shocking drops, I'm leaning towards Nikola Djurisic at #26. His game just exploded once Topic left Mega. A legit 6-8 like Topic ... the difference is Djurisic is a wing with playmaking skill. I have Djurisic slightly higher than Topic due to his shooting ability while still having high level passing skill + the added benefit of being to play off the ball in a scaled down role.

YES!

I’m glad to hear this, Dat. Your draft eye is amazing.

I think he’s so so intriguing, and would be an amazing get for this team.

The eye test on him is impressive. He is a big strong guy that moves pretty well and can shoot and pass. The stats are a little less impressive. He is foul prone and turnover prone, and his 3P shooting is just 30%. Also, his combine numbers are pretty mediocre. He has a short wingspan and a lousy vertical leap. He did pretty well on lane agility, shuttle run and the sprint though. He has quick feet, albeit not that explosive. Finally, he is already 20.

[dckingsfan]

I suppose it's natural to concentrate on that single super-high pick, even in a draft that seems thin up top. But, it's important to recall that we have, basically, nothing -- or as close to nothing as possible. We're starting over.

We've got Deni, & we've got 1 guy w/ great promise, Bilal. Essentially, that's it. The rest is just a couple of maybes & a long list of guys on their way out. maybe we'll get something for 1 or 2 of them.

In short, we need to add as much talent as possible from this draft, & the biggest piece of capital we can use to get that talent is our #2 pick. Maybe we should use that capital to add Sarr, if he's there. In case he's not there, if I'm Will, I'm looking for ways to trade down. Or acquire more picks.

This. And take the BPA regardless of position.

[gesa2]

Also, we're in no position to give up an additional FRP to move up 1 spot. I think Winger/Dawkins are content staying at 2 and picking up Risacher and figuring it out from there.

Or maybe our supposed interest in Risacher is a smokescreen in case Atlanta takes Sarr, in hopes of getting treasure in a trade down with SA