Challenge: Draft Day Predictions 2024

[babyjax13]

I don't know if LoserX planned on posting this on draft day, so apologies if jumping the gun. Just quoting the usual format with edits for this year!

How is draft day less than two days away already??

I've done a few of these in the past, sometimes keeping score...but the last few have been just for fun and discussion. (You are of course encouraged to post back and brag about how you did...or eat crow )

(Note for these questions, when I say "between now and draft day", that includes draft day.)

A) Mock out the top 14, noting any traded picks:

1) Atlanta
2) Washington
3) Houston
4) San Antonio
5) Detroit
6) Charlotte
7) Portland
8) San Antonio
9) Memphis
10) Utah
11) Chicago
12) Oklahoma City
13) Sacramento
14) Portland

B) How many 2024 first rounders will get traded between now (Monday, June 24) and draft day?

C) Who will be the biggest name player (not draftee) traded from now until the end of the NBA draft?

D) Who will be the biggest steal? Who will be the biggest reach?

E) Every year, some top prospect takes a huge and unexpected slide. (e.g. in 2021, highly regarded Keon Johnson dropped all the way to #21.) Who's the candidate for that this year?

F) In what order will these guard prospects be taken: Devin Carter, Rob Dillingham, Nikola Topic, Reed Sheppard?

G) True or False: this player will be taken in the first round:
i) Tyler Kolek
ii) Ryan Dunn
iii) Terrence Shannon

H) If you be so bold, predict one trade to happen between now and draft day. Who trades what to whom?

I) Not a prediction, just a preference: who (realistically) would you like to see your team come away with on draft day?

Bonus: who gets picked last?

[babyjax13]

A) Mock out the top 14, noting any traded picks:

1) Atlanta: Alex Sarr [traded to Washington for 2 + 26]
2) Washington: Donovan Clingan [traded to Atlanta with 26 for 1]
3) Houston: Reed Sheppard
4) San Antonio: Zaccharie Risacher
5) Detroit: Matas Buzelis
6) Charlotte: Stephon Castle
7) Portland: Ron Holland
8) San Antonio: Devin Carter
9) Memphis: Cody Williams
10) Utah: Nikola Topic
11) Chicago: Tidjane Saluan
12) Oklahoma City: Tyler Smith
13) Sacramento: Kel'el Ware
14) Portland: Dalton Knecht

B) How many 2024 first rounders will get traded between now (Monday, June 24) and draft day?
6

C) Who will be the biggest name player (not draftee) traded from now until the end of the NBA draft?
Jimmy Butler

D) Who will be the biggest steal? Who will be the biggest reach?
Steal: Kyshawn George
Reach: Bronny James

E) Every year, some top prospect takes a huge and unexpected slide. (e.g. in 2021, highly regarded Keon Johnson dropped all the way to #21.) Who's the candidate for that this year?
Rob Dillinghaam

F) In what order will these guard prospects be taken: Devin Carter, Rob Dillingham, Nikola Topic, Reed Sheppard?
Reed Sheppard
Devin Carter
Nikola Topic
Rob Dillingham

G) True or False: this player will be taken in the first round:
i) Tyler Kolek: False
ii) Ryan Dunn: True
iii) Terrence Shannon: True

H) If you be so bold, predict one trade to happen between now and draft day. Who trades what to whom?
ATL trades 1 to Washington for 2 + 26

I) Not a prediction, just a preference: who (realistically) would you like to see your team come away with on draft day?
10: Devin Carter, Tyler Smith, or Kyshawn George
29: Kyshawn George, Johnny Furphy, or Pacome Dadiet
32: Pacome Dadiet, Bobi Klintman, or Baylor Schiermann

Bonus: who gets picked last?
Antonio Reeves

[babyjax13]

Also, please feel free to add questions you think are interesting!

[R-DAWG]

Top 5 projections:

1) Atlanta ends up staying at #1 and drafts Clingan
2) Washington throws a curveball and drafts Castle
3) With Sarr falling at the last minute, a team gets a little more aggressive in their offer to move up acquire #3
4) Reschier falls into the Spurs lap at #4
5) Pistons also benefit with Reed falling to them

Another prediction - the cost to move up from the mid 20's to high teens will be less than usual with teams like the Heat, Sixers and Lakers so close to the 2nd apron.

Additionally, there will be a blockbuster trade that shifts the balance of power in the league and the main player won't be Paul George.

[toooskies]

A) Mock out the top 14, noting any traded picks:

1) Atlanta: Clingan
2) Washington: Sarr
3) Houston: Castle
4) San Antonio: Sheppard
5) Detroit: Risacher
6) Charlotte: Carter
7) Portland: Buzelis
8) San Antonio: Topic
9) Memphis: Cody WIlliams
10) Utah: Knecht
11) Chicago: Holland
12) Oklahoma City: Holmes
13) Sacramento: da Silva
14) Portland: Edey

B) How many 2024 first rounders will get traded between now (Monday, June 24) and draft day?

6. (Portland x2, SAS x1, PHI x1, CLE x1, LAL x1)

C) Who will be the biggest name player (not draftee) traded from now until the end of the NBA draft?

Simons

D) Who will be the biggest steal? Who will be the biggest reach?

Dillingham #15 to Miami as a steal; OKC taking Holmes #12 as a reach

E) Every year, some top prospect takes a huge and unexpected slide. (e.g. in 2021, highly regarded Keon Johnson dropped all the way to #21.) Who's the candidate for that this year?

Holland, Dillingham, Topic could all slide. Clingan's name is out there a ton, he might slide out of the top 10.

F) In what order will these guard prospects be taken: Devin Carter, Rob Dillingham, Nikola Topic, Reed Sheppard?

Sheppard,

G) True or False: this player will be taken in the first round:
i) Tyler Kolek
ii) Ryan Dunn
iii) Terrence Shannon

Yes to Kolek, Dunn. No to Shannon.

H) If you be so bold, predict one trade to happen between now and draft day. Who trades what to whom?

Philly trades #16 for a rotation player on a super-low value contract. (Think Duop Reath, Sam Merrill, etc.)

I) Not a prediction, just a preference: who (realistically) would you like to see your team come away with on draft day?

Filipowski to the Cavs, in order to finally replace the Kevin Love role behind Mobley/Allen

Bonus: who gets picked last?

Quentin Post

[gswhoops]

A) Mock out the top 14, noting any traded picks:

1) Atlanta
2) Washington
3) Houston
4) San Antonio
5) Detroit
6) Charlotte
7) Portland
8) San Antonio
9) Memphis
10) Utah
11) Chicago
12) Oklahoma City
13) Sacramento
14) Portland

1. Atlanta - Risacher
2. Washington - Sarr
3. Portland (from Houston)* - Clingan
4. San Antonio - Castle
5. Detroit - Buzelis
6. Charlotte - Sheppard
7. Houston (from Portland)* - Carter
8. San Antonio - Salaun
9. Memphis - Knecht
10. Utah - Holland
11. Chicago - C. Williams
12. Oklahoma City - Holmes
13. Houston (from Sacramento via Portland)* - da Silva
14. Portland - Ware

* Sacramento trades Harrison Barnes, Sasha Vezenkov, and #13 to Portland for Jerami Grant, Portland trades #7 and #13 to Houston for #3 and a 2030 1st (top-10 protected)

B) How many 2024 first rounders will get traded between now (Monday, June 24) and draft day?

6

C) Who will be the biggest name player (not draftee) traded from now until the end of the NBA draft?

Jerami Grant

D) Who will be the biggest steal? Who will be the biggest reach?

Steal: Rob Dillingham
Reach: DaRon Holmes

E) Every year, some top prospect takes a huge and unexpected slide. (e.g. in 2021, highly regarded Keon Johnson dropped all the way to #21.) Who's the candidate for that this year?

Nikola Topic falls to Miami at #15, and the rest of the league is kicking themselves for the next decade.

F) In what order will these guard prospects be taken: Devin Carter, Rob Dillingham, Nikola Topic, Reed Sheppard?

Sheppard, Topic, Carter, Dillingham

G) True or False: this player will be taken in the first round:
i) Tyler Kolek
ii) Ryan Dunn
iii) Terrence Shannon

i) False
ii) True
iii) False

H) If you be so bold, predict one trade to happen between now and draft day. Who trades what to whom?

Jerami Grant to Sacramento (as described above)

I) Not a prediction, just a preference: who (realistically) would you like to see your team come away with on draft day?

We don't pick until the 50s, so

Bonus: who gets picked last?

AJ Johnson

[babyjax13]

bump!

[daoneandonly]

WOuld be interesting to see if anyone jumps Sarr and Riasacher. Could Clingan rise that high?

[gswhoops]

WOuld be interesting to see if anyone jumps Sarr and Riasacher. Could Clingan rise that high?

Oh definitely. None of those three would surprise me at #1 overall tbh.

This is the most wide-open the #1 pick has been since...2013?

[Texas Chuck]

WOuld be interesting to see if anyone jumps Sarr and Riasacher. Could Clingan rise that high?

Oh definitely. None of those three would surprise me at #1 overall tbh.

This is the most wide-open the #1 pick has been since...2013?

Banchero, Chet, Smith Jr? Maybe I remember wrong, but it was assumed Orlando was taking Smith Jr until just a few hours before the draft?

[daoneandonly]

WOuld be interesting to see if anyone jumps Sarr and Riasacher. Could Clingan rise that high?

Oh definitely. None of those three would surprise me at #1 overall tbh.

This is the most wide-open the #1 pick has been since...2013?

Banchero, Chet, Smith Jr? Maybe I remember wrong, but it was assumed Orlando was taking Smith Jr until just a few hours before the draft?

I think you're right. Actually I think right up until the draft, if not when the pick itself was made. All signed pointed to Jabari

[gswhoops]

WOuld be interesting to see if anyone jumps Sarr and Riasacher. Could Clingan rise that high?

Oh definitely. None of those three would surprise me at #1 overall tbh.

This is the most wide-open the #1 pick has been since...2013?

Banchero, Chet, Smith Jr? Maybe I remember wrong, but it was assumed Orlando was taking Smith Jr until just a few hours before the draft?

True! I had totally memory-holed that one.

[toooskies]

Oh definitely. None of those three would surprise me at #1 overall tbh.

This is the most wide-open the #1 pick has been since...2013?

Banchero, Chet, Smith Jr? Maybe I remember wrong, but it was assumed Orlando was taking Smith Jr until just a few hours before the draft?

True! I had totally memory-holed that one.

This year a lot more guys could be on the board, though. You can see a lot of guys at the top of various teams' big boards given that Risacher, Sarr, and Clingan typically project into solid 3rd to 5th starters. If some team decided Ron Holland or Cody Williams has star upside and that's worth the risk given their average cases are still probably a 3rd to 5th starter, would you blame that team for taking them? If Atlanta didn't have too many guards, you could see them picking Dillingham, Sheppard, or Carter as the highest-upside player in the draft.

[MotownMadness]

Hoping Pistons cam trade back (Maybe with the Grizz)

Someone should want to trade up for Clingan and we might have him

[gswhoops]

Banchero, Chet, Smith Jr? Maybe I remember wrong, but it was assumed Orlando was taking Smith Jr until just a few hours before the draft?

True! I had totally memory-holed that one.

This year a lot more guys could be on the board, though. You can see a lot of guys at the top of various teams' big boards given that Risacher, Sarr, and Clingan typically project into solid 3rd to 5th starters. If some team decided Ron Holland or Cody Williams has star upside and that's worth the risk given their average cases are still probably a 3rd to 5th starter, would you blame that team for taking them? If Atlanta didn't have too many guards, you could see them picking Dillingham, Sheppard, or Carter as the highest-upside player in the draft.

Not at all. I do think Sarr has star upside though, if he can develop a consistent outside shot.

[aguiar95]

A) Mock out the top 14, noting any traded picks:

1) Atlanta: Donovan Cllingan
2) Washington: Alex Sarr
3) Houston: Reed Sheppard
4) San Antonio: Zaccharie Risacher
5) Detroit: Matas Buzelis
6) Charlotte: Stephon Castle
7) Portland: Ron Holland
8) San Antonio: Rob Dillingham
9) Memphis: Zach Edey [Traded to TOR with Kennard and Aldama for #19 + Poeltl]
10) Utah: Cody Williams [Traded to OKC for #12 and Isaiah Joe]
11) Chicago: Dalton Knetch
12) Oklahoma City: Devin Carter [Traded to UTA with Isaiah Joe for #10]
13) Sacramento: Nikola Topic [Traded to WAS with Huerter and Vezenkov for Kuzma]
14) Portland: Jared McCain

B) How many 2024 first rounders will get traded between now (Monday, June 24) and draft day?

7

C) Who will be the biggest name player (not draftee) traded from now until the end of the NBA draft?

Kyle Kuzma

D) Who will be the biggest steal? Who will be the biggest reach?

Steal: Jaylon Tyson
Reach: Bronny James

E) Every year, some top prospect takes a huge and unexpected slide. (e.g. in 2021, highly regarded Keon Johnson dropped all the way to #21.) Who's the candidate for that this year?

Nikola Topic

F) In what order will these guard prospects be taken: Devin Carter, Rob Dillingham, Nikola Topic, Reed Sheppard?

Reed Sheppard
Rob Dillingham
Devin Carter
Nikola Topic


G) True or False: this player will be taken in the first round:
i) Tyler Kolek: True
ii) Ryan Dunn: True
iii) Terrence Shannon: False

H) If you be so bold, predict one trade to happen between now and draft day. Who trades what to whom?

WAS trades Kuzma for Huerter/Vezenkov/#13

I) Not a prediction, just a preference: who (realistically) would you like to see your team come away with on draft day?

58: Trey Alexander, Cam Spencer or Ariel Hukporti

Bonus: who gets picked last?

Hopefully someone from the question above. Realistically Isaiah Crawford I guess

[babyjax13]

Christmas is here, get your predictions in!