Rank these off-peak LeBron years

[ardee]

2006
2007
2008
2011
2015

[LukaTheGOAT]

2011


2015
2008
2007
2006

I think 2nd half of 2008 Celtics series Lebron started to figure somethings out and is better than 15, but it took him sometime to figure things out. 2015 Lebron probably doesn't have quite the same lag to get going but also probably doesn't reach the same heights either. And before people mention 2015 being clear because of the offense he lead, I do think 15 is the safer choice, but you must understand that team's spacing was more ideal.

[Narigo]

2008
2011
2006
2015
2007

[homecourtloss]

2011


2015
2008
2007
2006

I think 2nd half of 2008 Celtics series Lebron started to figure somethings out and is better than 15, but it took him sometime to figure things out. 2015 Lebron probably doesn't have quite the same lag to get going but also probably doesn't reach the same heights either. And before people mention 2015 being clear because of the offense he lead, I do think 15 is the safer choice, but you must understand that team's spacing was more ideal.

2015 LeBron doesn’t have the individual numbers and his efficiency in the playoffs for a variety of reasons was down, including the back issues he had all year, but he was the dominant force on a historically good team after the trades that they made. Honestly, in many ways that was the best team it was ever on, and they were that good because of LeBron.

In 2015, after the Cavaliers made those trades, LeBron/Love/Kyrie were 33-3 with a gargantuan SRS approaching +12.

With Lebron, the 2015 Cavs went 50-19(59-win). Without they went 3-10 going at a 19-win pace. With all three of Love, Kyrie, and Lebron, the Cavs were 42-5(73-win) improving from 4-11 with just kyrie and love 21-win(note that's a 3-year sample, not just 2015).

—LeBron, after the trades was +15.5 on court, +18.3 on-off.
—LeBron/Love/Kyrie were +18.0 in 32 games in the regular season.
—LeBron/TT/Shumpert were +21.9 (not much spacing here—in 2016, LeBron did just as well with Tristan Thompson at the five as he did with Kevin Love at the five. The Cavs ran some dominant lineup with Mozgov, Tristan Thompson, and other non-shooters)
—LeBron/Shump/Delly were +23.7
—LeBron/Love/TT were +26.
— The Cavs at home after the trades rarely even trailed in any games after those trades, usually the mark of a dominant team. James was +21.3 on court, and James/Love/Kyrie were +24.1 on court (113.7 ORtg, 89.7 DRtg) and undefeated, 17-0, sans the final game, which they won, but sat out all their top players. The 2017 Warriors, for example, were 24-4 with KD/Curry/Dray, +25 on court at home.

2015 Cleveland post the trades and with a physically diminished James was an absolute monster team, headed for a titanic clash with the Golden State Warriors.

Only injuries derailed that team, which included a nice little 4-0 sweep of a 60 win Hawks team with no Love and little Kyrie (2 games played, 49 mp, 13 ppg).

[rk2023]

15/11
08

07
06

[lessthanjake]

2011


2015
2008
2007
2006

I think 2nd half of 2008 Celtics series Lebron started to figure somethings out and is better than 15, but it took him sometime to figure things out. 2015 Lebron probably doesn't have quite the same lag to get going but also probably doesn't reach the same heights either. And before people mention 2015 being clear because of the offense he lead, I do think 15 is the safer choice, but you must understand that team's spacing was more ideal.

2015 LeBron doesn’t have the individual numbers and his efficiency in the playoffs for a variety of reasons was down, including the back issues he had all year, but he was the dominant force on a historically good team after the trades that they made. Honestly, in many ways that was the best team it was ever on, and they were that good because of LeBron.

In 2015, after the Cavaliers made those trades, LeBron/Love/Kyrie were 33-3 with a gargantuan SRS approaching +12.

With Lebron, the 2015 Cavs went 50-19(59-win). Without they went 3-10 going at a 19-win pace. With all three of Love, Kyrie, and Lebron, the Cavs were 42-5(73-win) improving from 4-11 with just kyrie and love 21-win(note that's a 3-year sample, not just 2015).

—LeBron, after the trades was +15.5 on court, +18.3 on-off.
—LeBron/Love/Kyrie were +18.0 in 32 games in the regular season.
—LeBron/TT/Shumpert were +21.9 (not much spacing here—in 2016, LeBron did just as well with Tristan Thompson at the five as he did with Kevin Love at the five. The Cavs ran some dominant lineup with Mozgov, Tristan Thompson, and other non-shooters)
—LeBron/Shump/Delly were +23.7
—LeBron/Love/TT were +26.
— The Cavs at home after the trades rarely even trailed in any games after those trades, usually the mark of a dominant team. James was +21.3 on court, and James/Love/Kyrie were +24.1 on court (113.7 ORtg, 89.7 DRtg) and undefeated, 17-0, sans the final game, which they won, but sat out all their top players. The 2017 Warriors, for example, were 24-4 with KD/Curry/Dray, +25 on court at home.

2015 Cleveland post the trades and with a physically diminished James was an absolute monster team, headed for a titanic clash with the Golden State Warriors.

Only injuries derailed that team, which included a nice little 4-0 sweep of a 60 win Hawks team with no Love and little Kyrie (2 games played, 49 mp, 13 ppg).

I’m not sure I particularly disagree with the general crux of what you’re saying, but just FYI, that 42-5 number for the 2015 Cavaliers with LeBron, Kyrie, and Love all playing is wrong. They went 46-14 in those games: https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy/nba?0Exactly3PlayedInGame=2544,202681,201567&TeamId=1610612739&Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&Type=Team

The 33-3 number after the trades seems to be wrong too, though less dramatically. If we add a date filter to the above that starts the day after the trades (which occurred on January 5, 2015), then it tells us that LeBron/Love/Kyrie were 29-4 together after the trades. Which is still super good of course, so the correction doesn’t really affect the overarching point you’re making, but figured I’d correct it while correcting the above as well.

_________

As for the answer to this thread, I think 2008 is up there with 2011 and 2015. I think 2008 was the best regular season of any of those three, and the knock on it is just that he’d not quite figured things out from a playoff perspective yet. But all three of those years involved significant playoff struggles for him, so that’s not a distinguishing negative factor really in this particular comparison. Honestly, a pretty decent argument could be made for 2006 as well. In general, LeBron was very good in that 2006-2008 timeframe, and while he had better years later, I think they generally compare pretty well with the subsequent years that were relative down years for him.

[1993Playoffs]

I think 06, and 07 are a clear step behind .

15
11
08
07
06

[homecourtloss]

2011


2015
2008
2007
2006

I think 2nd half of 2008 Celtics series Lebron started to figure somethings out and is better than 15, but it took him sometime to figure things out. 2015 Lebron probably doesn't have quite the same lag to get going but also probably doesn't reach the same heights either. And before people mention 2015 being clear because of the offense he lead, I do think 15 is the safer choice, but you must understand that team's spacing was more ideal.

2015 LeBron doesn’t have the individual numbers and his efficiency in the playoffs for a variety of reasons was down, including the back issues he had all year, but he was the dominant force on a historically good team after the trades that they made. Honestly, in many ways that was the best team it was ever on, and they were that good because of LeBron.

In 2015, after the Cavaliers made those trades, LeBron/Love/Kyrie were 33-3 with a gargantuan SRS approaching +12.

With Lebron, the 2015 Cavs went 50-19(59-win). Without they went 3-10 going at a 19-win pace. With all three of Love, Kyrie, and Lebron, the Cavs were 42-5(73-win) improving from 4-11 with just kyrie and love 21-win(note that's a 3-year sample, not just 2015).

—LeBron, after the trades was +15.5 on court, +18.3 on-off.
—LeBron/Love/Kyrie were +18.0 in 32 games in the regular season.
—LeBron/TT/Shumpert were +21.9 (not much spacing here—in 2016, LeBron did just as well with Tristan Thompson at the five as he did with Kevin Love at the five. The Cavs ran some dominant lineup with Mozgov, Tristan Thompson, and other non-shooters)
—LeBron/Shump/Delly were +23.7
—LeBron/Love/TT were +26.
— The Cavs at home after the trades rarely even trailed in any games after those trades, usually the mark of a dominant team. James was +21.3 on court, and James/Love/Kyrie were +24.1 on court (113.7 ORtg, 89.7 DRtg) and undefeated, 17-0, sans the final game, which they won, but sat out all their top players. The 2017 Warriors, for example, were 24-4 with KD/Curry/Dray, +25 on court at home.

2015 Cleveland post the trades and with a physically diminished James was an absolute monster team, headed for a titanic clash with the Golden State Warriors.

Only injuries derailed that team, which included a nice little 4-0 sweep of a 60 win Hawks team with no Love and little Kyrie (2 games played, 49 mp, 13 ppg).

I’m not sure I particularly disagree with the general crux of what you’re saying, but just FYI, that 42-5 number for the 2015 Cavaliers with LeBron, Kyrie, and Love all playing is wrong. They went 46-14 in those games: https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy/nba?0Exactly3PlayedInGame=2544,202681,201567&TeamId=1610612739&Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&Type=Team

The 33-3 number after the trades seems to be wrong too, though less dramatically. If we add a date filter to the above that starts the day after the trades (which occurred on January 5, 2015), then it tells us that LeBron/Love/Kyrie were 29-4 together after the trades. Which is still super good of course, so the correction doesn’t really affect the overarching point you’re making, but figured I’d correct it while correcting the above as well.

_________

As for the answer to this thread, I think 2008 is up there with 2011 and 2015. I think 2008 was the best regular season of any of those three, and the knock on it is just that he’d not quite figured things out from a playoff perspective yet. But all three of those years involved significant playoff struggles for him, so that’s not a distinguishing negative factor really in this particular comparison. Honestly, a pretty decent argument could be made for 2006 as well. In general, LeBron was very good in that 2006-2008 timeframe, and while he had better years later, I think they generally compare pretty well with the subsequent years that were relative down years for him.

The 33-3 includes the sweep of the Celtics in the playoffs. It technically would be 33-4 if you include the game vs. Suns before that 33-3 stretch though that’s the first game LeBron was back from his injury (James +4, Love -20, Kyrie -7). Not sure whom I took the quote from though it looks like a typo.

Obviously the over arching point is that even being physically diminished with the back issues all season, he was essential of an ultra dominant force put 2015 in a certain light for me.

[rk2023]

2011


2015
2008
2007
2006

I think 2nd half of 2008 Celtics series Lebron started to figure somethings out and is better than 15, but it took him sometime to figure things out. 2015 Lebron probably doesn't have quite the same lag to get going but also probably doesn't reach the same heights either. And before people mention 2015 being clear because of the offense he lead, I do think 15 is the safer choice, but you must understand that team's spacing was more ideal.

2015 LeBron doesn’t have the individual numbers and his efficiency in the playoffs for a variety of reasons was down, including the back issues he had all year, but he was the dominant force on a historically good team after the trades that they made. Honestly, in many ways that was the best team it was ever on, and they were that good because of LeBron.

In 2015, after the Cavaliers made those trades, LeBron/Love/Kyrie were 33-3 with a gargantuan SRS approaching +12.

With Lebron, the 2015 Cavs went 50-19(59-win). Without they went 3-10 going at a 19-win pace. With all three of Love, Kyrie, and Lebron, the Cavs were 42-5(73-win) improving from 4-11 with just kyrie and love 21-win(note that's a 3-year sample, not just 2015).

—LeBron, after the trades was +15.5 on court, +18.3 on-off.
—LeBron/Love/Kyrie were +18.0 in 32 games in the regular season.
—LeBron/TT/Shumpert were +21.9 (not much spacing here—in 2016, LeBron did just as well with Tristan Thompson at the five as he did with Kevin Love at the five. The Cavs ran some dominant lineup with Mozgov, Tristan Thompson, and other non-shooters)
—LeBron/Shump/Delly were +23.7
—LeBron/Love/TT were +26.
— The Cavs at home after the trades rarely even trailed in any games after those trades, usually the mark of a dominant team. James was +21.3 on court, and James/Love/Kyrie were +24.1 on court (113.7 ORtg, 89.7 DRtg) and undefeated, 17-0, sans the final game, which they won, but sat out all their top players. The 2017 Warriors, for example, were 24-4 with KD/Curry/Dray, +25 on court at home.

2015 Cleveland post the trades and with a physically diminished James was an absolute monster team, headed for a titanic clash with the Golden State Warriors.

Only injuries derailed that team, which included a nice little 4-0 sweep of a 60 win Hawks team with no Love and little Kyrie (2 games played, 49 mp, 13 ppg).

I’m not sure I particularly disagree with the general crux of what you’re saying, but just FYI, that 42-5 number for the 2015 Cavaliers with LeBron, Kyrie, and Love all playing is wrong. They went 46-14 in those games: https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy/nba?0Exactly3PlayedInGame=2544,202681,201567&TeamId=1610612739&Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&Type=Team

The 33-3 number after the trades seems to be wrong too, though less dramatically. If we add a date filter to the above that starts the day after the trades (which occurred on January 5, 2015), then it tells us that LeBron/Love/Kyrie were 29-4 together after the trades. Which is still super good of course, so the correction doesn’t really affect the overarching point you’re making, but figured I’d correct it while correcting the above as well.

_________

As for the answer to this thread, I think 2008 is up there with 2011 and 2015. I think 2008 was the best regular season of any of those three, and the knock on it is just that he’d not quite figured things out from a playoff perspective yet. But all three of those years involved significant playoff struggles for him, so that’s not a distinguishing negative factor really in this particular comparison. Honestly, a pretty decent argument could be made for 2006 as well. In general, LeBron was very good in that 2006-2008 timeframe, and while he had better years later, I think they generally compare pretty well with the subsequent years that were relative down years for him.

How do you see 2008 James in comparison to Kobe / KG / CP3 (as well as how Kobe & LBJ fared against the 08 Celtics respectively)?

[wafflzgod]

2011 > 2015 > 2008 > 2007 >= 2006

[lessthanjake]

2015 LeBron doesn’t have the individual numbers and his efficiency in the playoffs for a variety of reasons was down, including the back issues he had all year, but he was the dominant force on a historically good team after the trades that they made. Honestly, in many ways that was the best team it was ever on, and they were that good because of LeBron.

In 2015, after the Cavaliers made those trades, LeBron/Love/Kyrie were 33-3 with a gargantuan SRS approaching +12.



—LeBron, after the trades was +15.5 on court, +18.3 on-off.
—LeBron/Love/Kyrie were +18.0 in 32 games in the regular season.
—LeBron/TT/Shumpert were +21.9 (not much spacing here—in 2016, LeBron did just as well with Tristan Thompson at the five as he did with Kevin Love at the five. The Cavs ran some dominant lineup with Mozgov, Tristan Thompson, and other non-shooters)
—LeBron/Shump/Delly were +23.7
—LeBron/Love/TT were +26.
— The Cavs at home after the trades rarely even trailed in any games after those trades, usually the mark of a dominant team. James was +21.3 on court, and James/Love/Kyrie were +24.1 on court (113.7 ORtg, 89.7 DRtg) and undefeated, 17-0, sans the final game, which they won, but sat out all their top players. The 2017 Warriors, for example, were 24-4 with KD/Curry/Dray, +25 on court at home.

2015 Cleveland post the trades and with a physically diminished James was an absolute monster team, headed for a titanic clash with the Golden State Warriors.

Only injuries derailed that team, which included a nice little 4-0 sweep of a 60 win Hawks team with no Love and little Kyrie (2 games played, 49 mp, 13 ppg).

I’m not sure I particularly disagree with the general crux of what you’re saying, but just FYI, that 42-5 number for the 2015 Cavaliers with LeBron, Kyrie, and Love all playing is wrong. They went 46-14 in those games: https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy/nba?0Exactly3PlayedInGame=2544,202681,201567&TeamId=1610612739&Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&Type=Team

The 33-3 number after the trades seems to be wrong too, though less dramatically. If we add a date filter to the above that starts the day after the trades (which occurred on January 5, 2015), then it tells us that LeBron/Love/Kyrie were 29-4 together after the trades. Which is still super good of course, so the correction doesn’t really affect the overarching point you’re making, but figured I’d correct it while correcting the above as well.

_________

As for the answer to this thread, I think 2008 is up there with 2011 and 2015. I think 2008 was the best regular season of any of those three, and the knock on it is just that he’d not quite figured things out from a playoff perspective yet. But all three of those years involved significant playoff struggles for him, so that’s not a distinguishing negative factor really in this particular comparison. Honestly, a pretty decent argument could be made for 2006 as well. In general, LeBron was very good in that 2006-2008 timeframe, and while he had better years later, I think they generally compare pretty well with the subsequent years that were relative down years for him.

How do you see 2008 James in comparison to Kobe / KG / CP3 (as well as how Kobe & LBJ fared against the 08 Celtics respectively)?

At the time, I recall thinking during that 2006-2008 time period that LeBron was arguably the best player in the world. I definitely had him over Kobe in those years, though I recall that that wasn’t a majority opinion at the time. Definitely more of an “in the conversation” guy than the clear-cut best player he’d later become. Some of that is a function of LeBron improving. But some of it is also a function of the fact that the competition at the top in those years was stiffer than it became in the years subsequent to that. You had guys like Garnett and Duncan still in their prime, Kobe probably peaking (albeit on a bad team for all but one of those three years), Nash at his best, Dirk at his best, etc. At the same time, the best guys from LeBron’s own generation had already arrived, certainly by 2008 specifically. Wade was great that entire 2006-2008 time period, and Chris Paul and Dwight were already in their prime by 2008. So it was just really crowded. A lot of the older generation fell off a good bit after that, and when you combine that with LeBron himself improving some aspects of his game and having better teams, he quickly went from an “in the conversation” guy to the clear-cut best player. Since a good bit of that was a function of the rest of the talent at the top of the league generally taking a bit of a dip, I think that that shift in perception exaggerates how much better LeBron himself was after that. He was already really good in 2006-2008! The improvements in his game were real but still at the margins. So when we compare those years to the subsequent years that were his weakest, I don’t necessarily think 2006-2008 is behind, even if he probably didn’t have the same stature in the league at the time.

[Colbinii]

The 2015 Cavaliers were an ATG team when healthy.

Their Big 3 of LeBron/Kyrie/Love were +18.9 together post January 7th trade. The Warriors Big 3 of Curry/Klay/Draymond were +19.7 throughout the season.

In the post-season, prior to the Finals, in limited minutes the LeBron/Kyrie/Love trio was +20.6, LeBron/Kyrie were at +5.8 and LeBron WITHOUT Kyrie/Love was +8.5 included a complete evisceration of the 2015 Atlanta Hawks. Meanwhile, the Warriors trio was +10.9 prior to the finals.

I would put 2015, 2011 and 2008 as ATG Peaks [2023 Jokic, 2015 Curry, 2021 Giannis, 1986 Bird, 1987 Magic] with 2006 and 2007 being MVP level seasons.

[IG2]

2008
2011
2015
2007
2006

[lessthanjake]

The 2015 Cavaliers were an ATG team when healthy.

Their Big 3 of LeBron/Kyrie/Love were +18.9 together post January 7th trade. The Warriors Big 3 of Curry/Klay/Draymond were +19.7 throughout the season.

In the post-season, prior to the Finals, in limited minutes the LeBron/Kyrie/Love trio was +20.6, LeBron/Kyrie were at +5.8 and LeBron WITHOUT Kyrie/Love was +8.5 included a complete evisceration of the 2015 Atlanta Hawks. Meanwhile, the Warriors trio was +10.9 prior to the finals.

I would put 2015, 2011 and 2008 as ATG Peaks [2023 Jokic, 2015 Curry, 2021 Giannis, 1986 Bird, 1987 Magic] with 2006 and 2007 being MVP level seasons.

This seems perhaps right, with the caveat that limiting things to the big 3 together post-trade gets us into a bit of a small-sample-size realm. So, similar to when we discussed how the 2024 Mavs did post-trade, and people (I think correctly) said that they probably weren’t *really* a 9+ SRS team even if that’s what they’d done with Luka post-trade, the 2015 Cavs probably weren’t actually quite as good as those post-trade numbers suggest. The fact that the Big 3 was like 17-10 together prior to the trades and 29-4 after them is also suggestive of that—role player trades matter, but they almost certainly don’t matter *that* much!

I’m also not quite sure how this line of thinking maps on to ranking LeBron’s years against each other. LeBron definitely had a down year in terms of playoff performance in 2015 (and that was true even before the injuries to Love and Kyrie—he had a negative rTS% even in the first round. If we think that the 2015 Cavs with the Big 3 playing were an all-time great team (and better than other LeBron teams) even with that in mind, then isn’t that just a reflection of the supporting cast’s quality (and fit), rather than reflective of LeBron himself actually being better that year compared to others? And if we’re instead just not thinking about how LeBron played in the playoffs, aren’t we then just ranking based on a hypothetical rather than on reality? Like, one of the main reasons that 2015 is on the list of “off-peak” years is precisely because he had a down year in the playoffs, so it’s kind of a no-brainer that it’d go high up if we handwave that away.

[Colbinii]

The 2015 Cavaliers were an ATG team when healthy.

Their Big 3 of LeBron/Kyrie/Love were +18.9 together post January 7th trade. The Warriors Big 3 of Curry/Klay/Draymond were +19.7 throughout the season.

In the post-season, prior to the Finals, in limited minutes the LeBron/Kyrie/Love trio was +20.6, LeBron/Kyrie were at +5.8 and LeBron WITHOUT Kyrie/Love was +8.5 included a complete evisceration of the 2015 Atlanta Hawks. Meanwhile, the Warriors trio was +10.9 prior to the finals.

I would put 2015, 2011 and 2008 as ATG Peaks [2023 Jokic, 2015 Curry, 2021 Giannis, 1986 Bird, 1987 Magic] with 2006 and 2007 being MVP level seasons.

This seems perhaps right, with the caveat that limiting things to the big 3 together post-trade gets us into a bit of a small-sample-size realm. So, similar to when we discussed how the 2024 Mavs did post-trade, and people (I think correctly) said that they probably weren’t *really* a 9+ SRS team even if that’s what they’d done with Luka post-trade, the 2015 Cavs probably weren’t actually quite as good as those post-trade numbers suggest. The fact that the Big 3 was like 17-10 together prior to the trades and 29-4 after them is also suggestive of that—role player trades matter, but they almost certainly don’t matter *that* much!

I’m also not quite sure how this line of thinking maps on to ranking LeBron’s years against each other. LeBron definitely had a down year in terms of playoff performance in 2015 (and that was true even before the injuries to Love and Kyrie—he had a negative rTS% even in the first round. If we think that the 2015 Cavs with the Big 3 playing were an all-time great team (and better than other LeBron teams) even with that in mind, then isn’t that just a reflection of the supporting cast’s quality (and fit), rather than reflective of LeBron himself actually being better that year compared to others?

What made LeBron worse in the 2015 Playoffs?

Here were the Cavaliers rORTG by series in 2015. The Number is simply the Cavaliers ORTG - Opponent RS DRTG.

2015 ECQF vs Celtics: +7.1 rORtg
2015 ECSF vs Bulls: +8.0 rORtg
2015 ECF vs Hawks: +10.9 rORtg
2015 Finals vs Warriors: -1.8 rORtg

Seems like the Cavaliers had incredible offenses in 2015, without Love and some series [See Atlanta] without Kyrie for portions.

Are we really pointing to Iman Shumpert, J.R. Smith and Timofey Mozgoz as players who made a career of producing high level post-season offense?

I value the engine to an elite offense over rTS%, but that's just me

[lessthanjake]

The 2015 Cavaliers were an ATG team when healthy.

Their Big 3 of LeBron/Kyrie/Love were +18.9 together post January 7th trade. The Warriors Big 3 of Curry/Klay/Draymond were +19.7 throughout the season.

In the post-season, prior to the Finals, in limited minutes the LeBron/Kyrie/Love trio was +20.6, LeBron/Kyrie were at +5.8 and LeBron WITHOUT Kyrie/Love was +8.5 included a complete evisceration of the 2015 Atlanta Hawks. Meanwhile, the Warriors trio was +10.9 prior to the finals.

I would put 2015, 2011 and 2008 as ATG Peaks [2023 Jokic, 2015 Curry, 2021 Giannis, 1986 Bird, 1987 Magic] with 2006 and 2007 being MVP level seasons.

This seems perhaps right, with the caveat that limiting things to the big 3 together post-trade gets us into a bit of a small-sample-size realm. So, similar to when we discussed how the 2024 Mavs did post-trade, and people (I think correctly) said that they probably weren’t *really* a 9+ SRS team even if that’s what they’d done with Luka post-trade, the 2015 Cavs probably weren’t actually quite as good as those post-trade numbers suggest. The fact that the Big 3 was like 17-10 together prior to the trades and 29-4 after them is also suggestive of that—role player trades matter, but they almost certainly don’t matter *that* much!

I’m also not quite sure how this line of thinking maps on to ranking LeBron’s years against each other. LeBron definitely had a down year in terms of playoff performance in 2015 (and that was true even before the injuries to Love and Kyrie—he had a negative rTS% even in the first round. If we think that the 2015 Cavs with the Big 3 playing were an all-time great team (and better than other LeBron teams) even with that in mind, then isn’t that just a reflection of the supporting cast’s quality (and fit), rather than reflective of LeBron himself actually being better that year compared to others?

What made LeBron worse in the 2015 Playoffs?

Here were the Cavaliers rORTG by series in 2015. The Number is simply the Cavaliers ORTG - Opponent RS DRTG.

2015 ECQF vs Celtics: +7.1 rORtg
2015 ECSF vs Bulls: +8.0 rORtg
2015 ECF vs Hawks: +10.9 rORtg
2015 Finals vs Warriors: -1.8 rORtg

Seems like the Cavaliers had incredible offenses in 2015, without Love and some series [See Atlanta] without Kyrie for portions.

Are we really pointing to Iman Shumpert, J.R. Smith and Timofey Mozgoz as players who made a career of producing high level post-season offense?

I value the engine to an elite offense over rTS%, but that's just me

2015 was a really significant outlier for LeBron in terms of rTS% in the playoffs. Prior to the 2015 playoffs, LeBron had gone six years without having a negative rTS% series, and then had a negative rTS% in every single series in 2015, followed by only having one negative rTS% series in the next five years. That’s a big deal! I think it’s fine to point to playoff rORTG as a counterpoint to that. The 2015 Cavs did have a higher playoff rORTG that year than LeBron’s teams had in the other years in consideration here (despite injuries to major players during the playoffs). But rORTG is a function of much more than just what LeBron James does. If his team had a better rORTG in a series where he shot abnormally badly, then it’s likely his teammates simply made up for it by doing abnormally well in some way. For instance, his teammates shot super well from three against the Bulls and Hawks. Mozgov and Thompson were also pretty dominant on the offensive boards during those playoffs. And I believe the 2015 Cavs offense in the playoffs actually had positive rORTG even in minutes LeBron was off the court, which definitely was abnormal, particularly under the injury circumstances. These sorts of things happen in small samples, and they really don’t have to mean that the team’s best player was playing better than other years despite the individual stats indicating that he really wasn’t.

[Cavsfansince84]

08/15
11
06
07

LeBron was better in 06 compared to 07 unless you focus overly on the ecf imo. What happened is he took on a big scoring load in 06 and I think he wanted to break out of that mindset in 07 and in some ways he took a step backwards and I think reworked his shot but then he sort of put it back together again in 08 after the 07 playoff run. In 06 he was 2nd in mvp voting at age 21. So I applaud the fact he didn't just keep upping his ppg after that season like he could have but he had to rework his offensive game so that he wasn't just a bigger more athletic AI and learn to polish his weaknesses and improve his shot selection. 11 he was great but due to the circumstances of adding 15lb and having to fit in with two other star players he wasn't the freewheeling force of nature he'd been the previous 3 years where he'd do things that you weren't sure you'd seen a player do before on a bb court.

[MyUniBroDavis]

2011 underground lmao

[Colbinii]

This seems perhaps right, with the caveat that limiting things to the big 3 together post-trade gets us into a bit of a small-sample-size realm. So, similar to when we discussed how the 2024 Mavs did post-trade, and people (I think correctly) said that they probably weren’t *really* a 9+ SRS team even if that’s what they’d done with Luka post-trade, the 2015 Cavs probably weren’t actually quite as good as those post-trade numbers suggest. The fact that the Big 3 was like 17-10 together prior to the trades and 29-4 after them is also suggestive of that—role player trades matter, but they almost certainly don’t matter *that* much!

I’m also not quite sure how this line of thinking maps on to ranking LeBron’s years against each other. LeBron definitely had a down year in terms of playoff performance in 2015 (and that was true even before the injuries to Love and Kyrie—he had a negative rTS% even in the first round. If we think that the 2015 Cavs with the Big 3 playing were an all-time great team (and better than other LeBron teams) even with that in mind, then isn’t that just a reflection of the supporting cast’s quality (and fit), rather than reflective of LeBron himself actually being better that year compared to others?

What made LeBron worse in the 2015 Playoffs?

Here were the Cavaliers rORTG by series in 2015. The Number is simply the Cavaliers ORTG - Opponent RS DRTG.

2015 ECQF vs Celtics: +7.1 rORtg
2015 ECSF vs Bulls: +8.0 rORtg
2015 ECF vs Hawks: +10.9 rORtg
2015 Finals vs Warriors: -1.8 rORtg

Seems like the Cavaliers had incredible offenses in 2015, without Love and some series [See Atlanta] without Kyrie for portions.

Are we really pointing to Iman Shumpert, J.R. Smith and Timofey Mozgoz as players who made a career of producing high level post-season offense?

I value the engine to an elite offense over rTS%, but that's just me

2015 was a really significant outlier for LeBron in terms of rTS% in the playoffs.

Yes it was. Does it make him a worse player?

Prior to the 2015 playoffs, LeBron had gone six years without having a negative rTS% series, and then had a negative rTS% in every single series in 2015, followed by only having one negative rTS% series in the next five years. That’s a big deal! I think it’s fine to point to playoff rORTG as a counterpoint to that. The 2015 Cavs did have a higher playoff rORTG that year than LeBron’s teams had in the other years in consideration here (despite injuries to major players during the playoffs). But rORTG is a function of much more than just what LeBron James does. If his team had a better rORTG in a series where he shot abnormally badly, then it’s likely his teammates simply made up for it by doing abnormally well in some way.

For instance, his teammates shot super well from three against the Bulls and Hawks.

That isn't how it works. There isn't only A [LeBron's TS%] and B [LeBron's teammates shooting]. Context is important here.

Who is dictating the offense? LeBron James
Who is making a majority of the decisions? LeBron James

Cleveland Cavaliers 3P% LeBron James ON in EC PS: 35.8%
Cleveland Cavaliers 3P% LeBron James OFF in EC PS: 34.6%

LeBron James teammates shooting isn't mutually exclusive from LeBron James' impact on an offense.

Another point of note is the Cavaliers make many more assisted shots when on the court with LeBron James. Whether this is a direct assist from LeBron James or LeBron James creating a 4v3 by driving and the team making the correct pass is a shot created from the driving of LeBron James.

Mozgov and Thompson were also pretty dominant on the offensive boards during those playoffs. And I believe the 2015 Cavs offense in the playoffs actually had positive rORTG even in minutes LeBron was off the court, which definitely was abnormal, particularly under the injury circumstances. These sorts of things happen in small samples, and they really don’t have to mean that the team’s best player was playing better than other years despite the individual stats indicating that he really wasn’t.

So, let's just say that LeBron's rTS% is something we really want to hone in on. We want to ignore all the terrific playmaking, difficult shot diet, incredible passing and incredible rim pressure LeBron puts on a defense. Let's do all that--ignore it all, chalk LeBron up to a neutral offensive player.

LeBron is--in his post-season minutes in the EC--outscoring opponents by an incredible amount. He still has a Net Rtg of +8.9.

Regarding defense, the Cavaliers defense was excellent. They held all opponents below their RS Ortg.

And, going a bit further on why I value the 2015 season: I don't really have scoring efficiency as LeBron's most important attribute. That is to say, I think LeBron can still have an ATG impact by volume scoring + elite playmaking + elite defense. He can still have a tremendous impact on a game by taking a larger scoring load + defensive responsibility + defensive role + offensive facilitator. When he is getting +rTS%, it's when we see LeBron getting seasons that are very much, in my eyes, GOAT level peaks. 2015 is similar to 2011 in that regard where his rTS% does take a hit but his overall impact is still overall ATG level.

[lessthanjake]

What made LeBron worse in the 2015 Playoffs?

Here were the Cavaliers rORTG by series in 2015. The Number is simply the Cavaliers ORTG - Opponent RS DRTG.



Seems like the Cavaliers had incredible offenses in 2015, without Love and some series [See Atlanta] without Kyrie for portions.

Are we really pointing to Iman Shumpert, J.R. Smith and Timofey Mozgoz as players who made a career of producing high level post-season offense?

I value the engine to an elite offense over rTS%, but that's just me

2015 was a really significant outlier for LeBron in terms of rTS% in the playoffs.

Yes it was. Does it make him a worse player?

Prior to the 2015 playoffs, LeBron had gone six years without having a negative rTS% series, and then had a negative rTS% in every single series in 2015, followed by only having one negative rTS% series in the next five years. That’s a big deal! I think it’s fine to point to playoff rORTG as a counterpoint to that. The 2015 Cavs did have a higher playoff rORTG that year than LeBron’s teams had in the other years in consideration here (despite injuries to major players during the playoffs). But rORTG is a function of much more than just what LeBron James does. If his team had a better rORTG in a series where he shot abnormally badly, then it’s likely his teammates simply made up for it by doing abnormally well in some way.

For instance, his teammates shot super well from three against the Bulls and Hawks.

That isn't how it works. There isn't only A [LeBron's TS%] and B [LeBron's teammates shooting]. Context is important here.

Who is dictating the offense? LeBron James
Who is making a majority of the decisions? LeBron James

Cleveland Cavaliers 3P% LeBron James ON in EC PS: 35.8%
Cleveland Cavaliers 3P% LeBron James OFF in EC PS: 34.6%

LeBron James teammates shooting isn't mutually exclusive from LeBron James' impact on an offense.

Another point of note is the Cavaliers make many more assisted shots when on the court with LeBron James. Whether this is a direct assist from LeBron James or LeBron James creating a 4v3 by driving and the team making the correct pass is a shot created from the driving of LeBron James.

Mozgov and Thompson were also pretty dominant on the offensive boards during those playoffs. And I believe the 2015 Cavs offense in the playoffs actually had positive rORTG even in minutes LeBron was off the court, which definitely was abnormal, particularly under the injury circumstances. These sorts of things happen in small samples, and they really don’t have to mean that the team’s best player was playing better than other years despite the individual stats indicating that he really wasn’t.

So, let's just say that LeBron's rTS% is something we really want to hone in on. We want to ignore all the terrific playmaking, difficult shot diet, incredible passing and incredible rim pressure LeBron puts on a defense. Let's do all that--ignore it all, chalk LeBron up to a neutral offensive player.

LeBron is--in his post-season minutes in the EC--outscoring opponents by an incredible amount. He still has a Net Rtg of +8.9.

Regarding defense, the Cavaliers defense was excellent. They held all opponents below their RS Ortg.

And, going a bit further on why I value the 2015 season: I don't really have scoring efficiency as LeBron's most important attribute. That is to say, I think LeBron can still have an ATG impact by volume scoring + elite playmaking + elite defense. He can still have a tremendous impact on a game by taking a larger scoring load + defensive responsibility + defensive role + offensive facilitator. When he is getting +rTS%, it's when we see LeBron getting seasons that are very much, in my eyes, GOAT level peaks. 2015 is similar to 2011 in that regard where his rTS% does take a hit but his overall impact is still overall ATG level.

Yes, scoring efficiency isn’t the only thing LeBron does on offense. But it’s undeniably a big deal. And this thread is about comparing LeBron to LeBron, not comparing LeBron to some hypothetical average player. So it’s not enough to just say that you think his creation outweighs the scoring inefficiency. You’d have to posit that his creation in 2015 was abnormally better than his own creation in other years, such that it makes up for him having been substantially worse than normal in scoring efficiency. And do you think that’s the case? I suppose you could try to make that case, by pointing out that the 2015 Cavs’ playoff rORTG was better than LeBron’s team’s playoff rORTG in 2006, 2007, 2008, or 2011. But do you genuinely think that that’s because LeBron was a substantially better creator in 2015 than in those other years, or do you think it’s perhaps just caused by the fairly unremarkable fact that you can get positive variance from a supporting cast in small samples?