2024 NBA Draft Thread, part 2 – (June 26 & 27)

[djFan71]

The goal of the new CBA is to force the great teams, like the Celtics, to stand pat.

If you study the new CBA, you'll understand why even a #30 pick is very expensive for a luxury tax paying team.

But the thing is its just not.

Again, the first pick will start at roughly 2.4 million this year. A vet min guy will start at around 2.1 million. That's 300K in extra salary. We are talking about less than a 1.5 million dollars in extra salary+taxes.

Lats year the 32 pick got a starting salary year one of 1.7 million. That's 700K less in salary, so probably less than three million dollars difference in salary/tax for a team already paying 45 million in tax.

The difference in salary/tax for the 30th pick between either a vet minimum or an early second round pick just isn't that much.

Again, it's not the amount of money, it's the guaranteed contract.

A 2nd rnd pick can be given a non-guaranteed contract while a 1st rnd pick will get a 3-year guaranteed contract.

You have to have 14 guys, though. So you will have a guaranteed contract one way or the other. And the difference between 30 and vet min is miniscule.

[Fierce1]

Its not actually an extra 3.6 million tho, because that spot it going to go to somebody. if they sign somebody to a vet min instead at 2.1 million they are saving a grand total of 300K in salary and 450 k in taxes, so roughly 750K. Its nothing. hell, even 3.6 million should not matter. That would just be ownership being cheap.

Again, money should not matter in this decision.

I actually agree with you about money should not matter.

But what I'm hearing from Celtic beat writers and Celtic podcasts is the Cs will save all the money they can save for the extensions of Tatum and White.

Guess we'll know for sure in Day 1 of the draft.

I think Cs will only use the #30 pick if there's a guy too good to pass up.

But most likely the Cs will trade down and avoid the 1st round pick guaranteed contract.

I don't think what the C's do with their draft pick is all that connected with any extension, in really any way. The two don't effect each other at all.

As for the guaranteed money stuff, that's silly. It just doesn't matter. If they do trade down my guess is it's becasue they get a good offer value wise.

If you look at it on a macro level, if the Cs have a payroll, for example, of 200m, that's 200m × 1.5 = 300m.

That's an additional 100m in taxes and that's only the 1st year of the tax penalty.

When it goes up to 2.5, that's 200m × 2.5 = 500m.

Keeping a super team intact will be extremely difficult.

That's why every dollar counts if you're a tax paying team.

[keevsnick1]

The goal of the new CBA is to force the great teams, like the Celtics, to stand pat.

If you study the new CBA, you'll understand why even a #30 pick is very expensive for a luxury tax paying team.

But the thing is its just not.

Again, the first pick will start at roughly 2.4 million this year. A vet min guy will start at around 2.1 million. That's 300K in extra salary. We are talking about less than a 1.5 million dollars in extra salary+taxes.

Lats year the 32 pick got a starting salary year one of 1.7 million. That's 700K less in salary, so probably less than three million dollars difference in salary/tax for a team already paying 45 million in tax.

The difference in salary/tax for the 30th pick between either a vet minimum or an early second round pick just isn't that much.

Again, it's not the amount of money, it's the guaranteed contract.

A 2nd rnd pick can be given a non-guaranteed contract while a 1st rnd pick will get a 3-year guaranteed contract.

I get it man, what I'm trying to saying is that early 2nd round picks will still typically get two years guaranteed. Guys drafted 31-40 still usually get guaranteed deals unless they are stashed overseas, pretty much everybody drafted in that range last year who wasn't stashed got two or more guaranteed years. Many got three.

And first round picks only get two guaranteed years as well, the last two years on 1st rounder are team options.

[Fierce1]

But the thing is its just not.

Again, the first pick will start at roughly 2.4 million this year. A vet min guy will start at around 2.1 million. That's 300K in extra salary. We are talking about less than a 1.5 million dollars in extra salary+taxes.

Lats year the 32 pick got a starting salary year one of 1.7 million. That's 700K less in salary, so probably less than three million dollars difference in salary/tax for a team already paying 45 million in tax.

The difference in salary/tax for the 30th pick between either a vet minimum or an early second round pick just isn't that much.

Again, it's not the amount of money, it's the guaranteed contract.

A 2nd rnd pick can be given a non-guaranteed contract while a 1st rnd pick will get a 3-year guaranteed contract.

You have to have 14 guys, though. So you will have a guaranteed contract one way or the other. And the difference between 30 and vet min is miniscule.

But the vets minimum can be NOT guaranteed, like what Svi got last year.

The #30 pick will get a guaranteed 3-year contract because that is the rule regarding 1st rnd picks.

[Fierce1]

But the thing is its just not.

Again, the first pick will start at roughly 2.4 million this year. A vet min guy will start at around 2.1 million. That's 300K in extra salary. We are talking about less than a 1.5 million dollars in extra salary+taxes.

Lats year the 32 pick got a starting salary year one of 1.7 million. That's 700K less in salary, so probably less than three million dollars difference in salary/tax for a team already paying 45 million in tax.

The difference in salary/tax for the 30th pick between either a vet minimum or an early second round pick just isn't that much.

Again, it's not the amount of money, it's the guaranteed contract.

A 2nd rnd pick can be given a non-guaranteed contract while a 1st rnd pick will get a 3-year guaranteed contract.

I get it man, what I'm trying to saying is that early 2nd round picks will still typically get two years guaranteed. Guys drafted 31-40 still usually get guaranteed deals unless they are stashed overseas, pretty much everybody drafted in that range last year who wasn't stashed got two or more guaranteed years. Many got three.

And first round picks only get two guaranteed years as well, the last two years on 1st rounder are team options.

The 3rd year of a 1st rnd pick's contract is the qualifying offer.

[djFan71]

Again, it's not the amount of money, it's the guaranteed contract.

A 2nd rnd pick can be given a non-guaranteed contract while a 1st rnd pick will get a 3-year guaranteed contract.

I get it man, what I'm trying to saying is that early 2nd round picks will still typically get two years guaranteed. Guys drafted 31-40 still usually get guaranteed deals unless they are stashed overseas, pretty much everybody drafted in that range last year who wasn't stashed got two or more guaranteed years. Many got three.

And first round picks only get two guaranteed years as well, the last two years on 1st rounder are team options.

The 3rd year of a 1st rnd pick's contract is the qualifying offer.

Which you don't have to extend. We very well may trade down, but it's not due to the financial difference. The 2nd year of pick 30 is still not going to be much more than the vet min you'd need that 2nd year. Yeah, the tax compounds it, but it's still basically insignificant.

[Homerclease]

I feel ok posting this after winning banner 18, but oh what could’ve been.

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[keevsnick1]

Again, it's not the amount of money, it's the guaranteed contract.

A 2nd rnd pick can be given a non-guaranteed contract while a 1st rnd pick will get a 3-year guaranteed contract.

I get it man, what I'm trying to saying is that early 2nd round picks will still typically get two years guaranteed. Guys drafted 31-40 still usually get guaranteed deals unless they are stashed overseas, pretty much everybody drafted in that range last year who wasn't stashed got two or more guaranteed years. Many got three.

And first round picks only get two guaranteed years as well, the last two years on 1st rounder are team options.

The 3rd year of a 1st rnd pick's contract is the qualifying offer.

No, its not. A first round picks gets two guaranteed years. The third and fourth years are team options that can be declined after the players first and second seasons.

[patman66]

Anybody up for offering #30 to Spurs for 35 & 48?

I'm sure Brad Stevens has been calling the Spurs all week.

Portland for 34 and 40 or a future 2nd instead if 40 is too rich
Spurs for 35 and 48
Pacers for 36 and 49 or 50 (traded for a future 2nd)
Timberwolves for 37 and a future 2nd.
Grizzlies for 39 and a future 2nd

Those seem to be our options if we want to trade back and stay in the 30's. Raptors/Jazz/Bucks probably won't want to trade up from 31-33 to 30th (they all already have 1st round picks), Knicks at 38 already have 24/25 so won't want 30.

I wouldn't be surprised if Brad traded back into the 40's for a pair of 2nds or did his Belichickian approach of trading back 2-3 times to grab a couple more.

I'd be surprised if drafted more than 2 guys in the 2nd round, so one of the options where we trade back and grab a pick or two in future years seems to make the most sense.

yeah, I think 30 and 54 for 34 and 40 is about right.

[Fierce1]

I get it man, what I'm trying to saying is that early 2nd round picks will still typically get two years guaranteed. Guys drafted 31-40 still usually get guaranteed deals unless they are stashed overseas, pretty much everybody drafted in that range last year who wasn't stashed got two or more guaranteed years. Many got three.

And first round picks only get two guaranteed years as well, the last two years on 1st rounder are team options.

The 3rd year of a 1st rnd pick's contract is the qualifying offer.

Which you don't have to extend. We very well may trade down, but it's not due to the financial difference. The 2nd year of pick 30 is still not going to be much more than the vet min you'd need that 2nd year. Yeah, the tax compounds it, but it's still basically insignificant.

Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

I'm not against using the #30 pick, but I keep hearing the Cs will be saving money for the contract extensions of the core and one way to do that is not to have a 1st round pick.

[Fierce1]

I get it man, what I'm trying to saying is that early 2nd round picks will still typically get two years guaranteed. Guys drafted 31-40 still usually get guaranteed deals unless they are stashed overseas, pretty much everybody drafted in that range last year who wasn't stashed got two or more guaranteed years. Many got three.

And first round picks only get two guaranteed years as well, the last two years on 1st rounder are team options.

The 3rd year of a 1st rnd pick's contract is the qualifying offer.

No, its not. A first round picks gets two guaranteed years. The third and fourth years are team options that can be declined after the players first and second seasons.

Yeah, I was looking at the old CBA.

Guess we'll just have to see what Brad does because I keep hearing the Cs are trading down.

[Celts17Pride]

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This very much sounds like a trade down to me.

[Hal14]

Again, it's not the amount of money, it's the guaranteed contract.

A 2nd rnd pick can be given a non-guaranteed contract while a 1st rnd pick will get a 3-year guaranteed contract.

You have to have 14 guys, though. So you will have a guaranteed contract one way or the other. And the difference between 30 and vet min is miniscule.

But the vets minimum can be NOT guaranteed, like what Svi got last year.

The #30 pick will get a guaranteed 3-year contract because that is the rule regarding 1st rnd picks.

Also, 2nd round picks can also be stashed overseas (this very rarely happens with 1st rounders, who typically always get a guaranteed NBA contract) and 2nd rounders can also sign a 2-way contract (which is dirt cheap..I think it's only like $600K a year)

In terms of total contract value, the 30th pick last year Kobe Brown..his contract is 4 years, $12.3 mil. Compare that to Jordan Walsh's contract (38th pick) which is 4 yrs, $7.6 mil. That difference of nearly $5mil can be pretty significant for a team that is paying a ton of $ to its top 5 or 6 guys. And might want to save some $ on end of the roster..why pay that extra $ for a guy who's played 0 NBA games and there typically is not very much difference in ability between the 30th pick and the 38th pick..

You look at a guy like Jaden Springer. Late 2nd round pick, making $4 mil this upcoming season in year 4. People on this board has been complaining ever since we traded for him about that $4 mil salary. Well, Jordan Walsh in his 4th year is only gonna make $2.4 mil. So that again is the value of drafting in the 2nd round, rather than the 1st round.

[keevsnick1]

You have to have 14 guys, though. So you will have a guaranteed contract one way or the other. And the difference between 30 and vet min is miniscule.

But the vets minimum can be NOT guaranteed, like what Svi got last year.

The #30 pick will get a guaranteed 3-year contract because that is the rule regarding 1st rnd picks.

Also, 2nd round picks can also be stashed overseas (this very rarely happens with 1st rounders, who typically always get a guaranteed NBA contract) and 2nd rounders can also sign a 2-way contract (which is dirt cheap..I think it's only like $600K a year)

In terms of total contract value, the 30th pick last year Kobe Brown..his contract is 4 years, $12.3 mil. Compare that to Jordan Walsh's contract (38th pick) which is 4 yrs, $7.6 mil. That difference of nearly $5mil can be pretty significant for a team that is paying a ton of $ to its top 5 or 6 guys. And might want to save some $ on end of the roster..why pay that extra $ for a guy who's played 0 NBA games and there typically is not very much difference in ability between the 30th pick and the 38th pick..

You look at a guy like Jaden Springer. Late 2nd round pick, making $4 mil this upcoming season in year 4. People on this board has been complaining ever since we traded for him about that $4 mil salary. Well, Jordan Walsh in his 4th year is only gonna make $2.4 mil. So that again is the value of drafting in the 2nd round, rather than the 1st round.

1) First round picks get stashed all the time. It may be slightly easier to get second round picks to agree to a stash, but the C's have in fact stashed first rounders before. In any case we should not be stashing guys this year anyway, we should be getting guys in to develop on the actual team with NBA minutes. The c's are so good they can afford to develop some guys in the regular seaosn.

2) A second round picked late enough to be on a two way is probably in the 45-60 range, which is much different in terms of expected outcome from the 30th overall pick. Again, the guys drafted in the 31-40 range usually get guaranteed contracts, to trade back far enough to get a guy on a two way means you'd traded the 30th pick for somewhere in the 40's or 50's and have significantly effected your expected return on that pick. The highest pick to sign a two-way last year was #41.The C's absolutely should not be trading back 10+ spots to draft a guy who will take a 2-way, that's what pick #54 if for.

3) Its five million spread over 4 years, only the first two of which are guaranteed. So its really not a lot of money for a team even as tax compact as the Celtics. And most of that difference is in the 4th season, since first rounders contracts take a jump in year 4. Over the first three years of the contract its 7.6 million for Brown, 6.2 for Walsh. So you're talking grand total of 1.4 million dollars in difference over the next three seasons. Its just not enough to actually matter. If the first round pick is good enough that he's worth the little extra he gets paid in year 4, that's actually a good thing. If he not, he won't be on the team.

Again you guy, you simply do not lose all that much flexibility or pay all that much more at #30 vs 31-40. There are certain situations where it might make sense to save the extra 500-800K in salary by picking at 35 vs 30, but this year the only reason to do so would be to save a relatively small amount of luxury tax. It should absolutely not be driving their decision making.

IF THEY DO TRADE DOWN it should be because they get great value, last year they pickled up 5 second rounders, including a VERY good one next year that's likely to be 31-35, just to move down 8 spots. That's too good to pass up.

But you should not trade down 8 spots just to save 1.4 million over 3 years. That's bad franchise management.

[djFan71]

But the vets minimum can be NOT guaranteed, like what Svi got last year.

The #30 pick will get a guaranteed 3-year contract because that is the rule regarding 1st rnd picks.

Also, 2nd round picks can also be stashed overseas (this very rarely happens with 1st rounders, who typically always get a guaranteed NBA contract) and 2nd rounders can also sign a 2-way contract (which is dirt cheap..I think it's only like $600K a year)

In terms of total contract value, the 30th pick last year Kobe Brown..his contract is 4 years, $12.3 mil. Compare that to Jordan Walsh's contract (38th pick) which is 4 yrs, $7.6 mil. That difference of nearly $5mil can be pretty significant for a team that is paying a ton of $ to its top 5 or 6 guys. And might want to save some $ on end of the roster..why pay that extra $ for a guy who's played 0 NBA games and there typically is not very much difference in ability between the 30th pick and the 38th pick..

You look at a guy like Jaden Springer. Late 2nd round pick, making $4 mil this upcoming season in year 4. People on this board has been complaining ever since we traded for him about that $4 mil salary. Well, Jordan Walsh in his 4th year is only gonna make $2.4 mil. So that again is the value of drafting in the 2nd round, rather than the 1st round.

1) First round picks get stashed all the time. It may be slightly easier to get second round picks to agree to a stash, but the C's have in fact stashed first rounder before. In any case we shouldn't be stashing anyone this year anyway.

2) A second round picked late enough to be on a two way is probably in the 45-60 range, which is much different in terms of expected outcome from the 30th overall pick. Again, the guys drafted in the 31-40 range usually get guaranteed contracts, to trade back far enough to get a guy on a two way means you'd traded the 30th pick for somewhere in the 40's or 50's and have significantly effected your expected return on that pick. The C's absolutely should not be trading back to get a worse player just becasue he can be on a two way.

3) Its five million spread over 4 years, only the first two of which are guaranteed. So its really not a lot of money for a team even as tax compact as the Celtics. And most of that difference is in the 4th season, since first rounders contracts take a jump in year 4. Over the first three years of the contract its 7.6 million for Brown, 6.2 for Walsh. So you're talking grand total of 1.4 million dollars in difference over the next three seasons. Its just not enough to actually matter. If the first round pick is good enough that he's worth the little extra he gets paid in year 4, that's actually a good thing. If he not, he won't be on the team.

I'm glad I waited. I was going to write basically the same as #3. The 4th year is the big difference, and it's optional and if you decide to pay it - it's a good thing.

[Smart2Nesmith43]

With the 30th pick the Celtics should pick Desmond Bane. Too soon ? Too soon.

[Hal14]

First round picks get stashed all the time.

I could be wrong, but I don't believe it's happened since like 2016..

Also, just because the highest drafted player last year to get a 2-way contract was 41st pick, doesn't mean you can't draft someone at like 38 or 35 and give them a 2-way.

I could be wrong, but any 2nd round pick can get a 2-way but 1st rounders all get a guaranteed contract (unless they're stashed).

And it's not like there is any significant difference between picking a guy at 40 or 41 anyways.

IMO, most years the entire 20-50 range is pretty fluid, with not a ton of separation between those players..

Every draft has guys in the lottery who are busts (Langford, Papagiannis, Johnny Davis, etc.), every draft has guys in the late 1st round who are busts (Poku, Tre Mann, Kai Jones, Patrick Baldwin Jr, Udoka Azuibuke, Usman Garuba, etc.) and others in the late 1st round who hit (Derrick White, Bane, Jimmy Butler, Jaden Mcdaniels).

Every draft has guys in the early 2nd round who hit (Andrew Nembhard, Hartenstein, Daniel Gafford< Nix Claxton) and others in the early 2nd round who miss (Joe Wieskamp, Carsen Edwards, Jared Butler, Bruno Fernando, Isiah Todd, KZ Okpala)..each draft has mid 2nd round guys who hit (Jokic, GG Jackson, Vince Williams, Dillon Brooks, Deanthony Melton) and others that miss (Madar, Begarin, Ryan Rollins, Greg Brown, Sharife Cooper).

Every draft has guys in the late 2nd round who hit (Paul Reed, Ginobili, Monte Morris) and late 2nd round guys who miss (JD Davison, Tyrese Martin).

There's lots of UDFA hits (Strus, Hauser, Duncan Robinson, Austin Reaves, TJ McConnell, Caleb Martin, Fred VanVleet, Naz Reid, etc.) but there's even more misses (Vincent Valderio-Bodon, Gabe Brown, Jules Bernard, Justin Champagnie, Donovan Williams, Trevion Williams, Taylor Funk, etc.)

There's hits and misses all over the draft. The key is to scout well and develop players well. Of course, the later in the draft, the lower the odds are of the pick "hitting". Sure, you have higher odds of drafting a good player at 32 rather than 42 (or at 30, rather than 36) but it generally it seems like having a pick a few spots higher (that late in the draft) doesn't make *that* much of a difference in terms of talent for it to be worth the cost of drafting that much higher (especially for contending teams) which is why teams (especially contenders) often look to trade back, acquiring additional assets/picks along the way, which can be used as trade bait later down the line.

And again, most drafts the 20-50 range, there isn't a whole lot of separation between those players anyways.

All of this stuff makes covering/discussing the draft a lot of fun

[CelticsPride18]

2 day draft is so dumb. Nobody will tune Thursday afternoon to watch round 2

[165bows]

Taking Brad's comments to a logical conclusion, there may be more valuable prospects that are much older than in years prior. Ie, he said the back end (ie, 45-60) of the draft could be weaker now since guys stay in school for the NIL money. Well those players need to come out eventually, esp. as the additional year dries up for the newer guys.

So the quality of older players may be better than it was in the past is the result of what he is saying imo.

[keevsnick1]

First round picks get stashed all the time.

I could be wrong, but I don't believe it's happened since like 2016..

Ya, it doesn't happen often. But to be honest the C's should not be draft and stashing someone this year anyway regardless of draft position. Draft and stashes are usually highly speculative flyer type guys, Celtics should be aiming higher than that in this draft.

The C's have enough room on their roster for another young developmental guy to join Walsh and Springer.