2024 Draft - Who you got?

[wolves_89]

I don't think I've seen a mock draft in over a week where Baylor Sheierman was off the board at 27, yet for some reason I still feel like there's a real chance he goes 23-25.

[Klomp]

I don't think I've seen a mock draft in over a week where Baylor Sheierman was off the board at 27, yet for some reason I still feel like there's a real chance he goes 23-25.

Honestly, I would be comfortable if we had to trade up for him. I know some people are against moves like that, but that's how much I believe in the kid.

[Neeva]

Nah I wouldn’t, wait and see if he drops. I’ve been reading Miami doesn’t want another wing, Pelicans want to trade out of first round and teams like Phoenix and Orlando need pgs badly, Scheierman may be available at 27 after all but does Connelly like him?

[Klomp]

People are quick to bring up how much of a bargain that someone in the mold of Minott is because he's got so much potential at such a low salary. But how close is he to realizing is that potential? If you think an older player could step in right away as a rotation player, isn't that a better financial move for our draft pick than drafting someone who is still a year or two away from being in a rotation? The financial crunch is now, not in two years.

[younggunsmn]

People are quick to bring up how much of a bargain that someone in the mold of Minott is because he's got so much potential at such a low salary. But how close is he to realizing is that potential? If you think an older player could step in right away as a rotation player, isn't that a better financial move for our draft pick than drafting someone who is still a year or two away from being in a rotation? The financial crunch is now, not in two years.

Yes, you draft a guy with potential hoping that he gives you meaningful minutes a year or two down the road.
If that doesn't materialize, the pick is a bust no matter how tantalizing the talent of the prospect.
Minott couldn't even get on the floor for his college team and it's no surprise he is a bust so far.

You can also draft an older player thinking his floor is lower and there is a better chance he will actually be able to contribute meaningful minutes for you, and if that doesn't materialize, the player is still a bust (Wendell Moore for example).
There is no guarantee an older player can step in right away.
The leap in competition level is substantial.

You can overrate both a player's current skills and potential to improve.
But the younger guys by and large go a lot earlier in the draft, skill level being equal.

[Sealab2024]

People are quick to bring up how much of a bargain that someone in the mold of Minott is because he's got so much potential at such a low salary. But how close is he to realizing is that potential? If you think an older player could step in right away as a rotation player, isn't that a better financial move for our draft pick than drafting someone who is still a year or two away from being in a rotation? The financial crunch is now, not in two years.

Honestly the only one of those game closing youngsters that regularly popped was Garza and we know his limitations will never let him play meaningful NBA minutes. Miller popped like twice when he was up from the G-league, and I think Nix looked good a couple times, but Minott just always looked out of place, awkward and overmatched. I hoped he'd gain a 3 ball and his energy could carry him defensively till he bulked up but it's pretty obvious it's not happening here. So he was a sunk cost, but only a second round pick. Not a huge loss as far as team capital would go.

[younggunsmn]

One constant among the guards available around our picks is that they are going to have a hard time guarding at the next level due to either poor length or athleticism. Both in the case of Scheierman.

Also the best available guys in our range all seem to already be 22 or older.

Kolek so small and unathletic, going to have a really hard time scoring at the next level.
Shannon almost 24 already.

Some guys I like a little bit:
KJ Simpson, 6-2 PG Colorado, Age 22
Really small, not an explosive athlete, but good twitch, body control, and short area quickness and a quick release.
Developed floater/mid range game.
Not going to be a rim attacking PG but plays a smart game and I could see him having a Monte Morris type of impact.

DaRon Holmes, 6-11 PF/C Dayton Age 22
This guy is already what we want Leonard Miller to turn into with a better body/physicality.
We're going to need another big with Naz a free agent next summer and an unsustainable 100 million tied up in KAT and Rudy.

So I'll go Holmes at 27 and Simpson at 37 for our picks.
Holmes supposedly having a promise from Denver at 28 have something to do with us at 27? Who knows.

We can't afford to pick anyone as bad as Wendell Moore again with such salary problems and 3 of the next 5 1st rounders gone though.

[Klomp]

People are quick to bring up how much of a bargain that someone in the mold of Minott is because he's got so much potential at such a low salary. But how close is he to realizing is that potential? If you think an older player could step in right away as a rotation player, isn't that a better financial move for our draft pick than drafting someone who is still a year or two away from being in a rotation? The financial crunch is now, not in two years.

Yes, you draft a guy with potential hoping that he gives you meaningful minutes a year or two down the road.
If that doesn't materialize, the pick is a bust no matter how tantalizing the talent of the prospect.
Minott couldn't even get on the floor for his college team and it's no surprise he is a bust so far.

You can also draft an older player thinking his floor is lower and there is a better chance he will actually be able to contribute meaningful minutes for you, and if that doesn't materialize, the player is still a bust (Wendell Moore for example).
There is no guarantee an older player can step in right away.
The leap in competition level is substantial.

You can overrate both a player's current skills and potential to improve.
But the younger guys by and large go a lot earlier in the draft, skill level being equal.

Sure, of course it can go both ways. But to my broader point...the financial crunch is now, not in two years. If they think someone like Kolek, Scheierman, or whoever can come in now and contribute, it's not a sunk cost in the middle of a cap crunch like it is if they are drafting more with an eye on the future. If you're drafting someone for two years from now, he still gets a salary and it's still on the books this year (unless it's a draft and stash). Paying $3 million and getting no production isn't ideal asset management once you start calculating luxury tax payments on those DNP-CDs.

[Slim Tubby]

One constant among the guards available around our picks is that they are going to have a hard time guarding at the next level due to either poor length or athleticism. Both in the case of Scheierman.

Also the best available guys in our range all seem to already be 22 or older.

Kolek so small and unathletic, going to have a really hard time scoring at the next level.
Shannon almost 24 already.

Some guys I like a little bit:
KJ Simpson, 6-2 PG Colorado, Age 22
Really small, not an explosive athlete, but good twitch, body control, and short area quickness and a quick release.
Developed floater/mid range game.
Not going to be a rim attacking PG but plays a smart game and I could see him having a Monte Morris type of impact.

DaRon Holmes, 6-11 PF/C Dayton Age 22
This guy is already what we want Leonard Miller to turn into with a better body/physicality.
We're going to need another big with Naz a free agent next summer and an unsustainable 100 million tied up in KAT and Rudy.

So I'll go Holmes at 27 and Simpson at 37 for our picks.
Holmes supposedly having a promise from Denver at 28 have something to do with us at 27? Who knows.

We can't afford to pick anyone as bad as Wendell Moore again with such salary problems and 3 of the next 5 1st rounders gone though.

I'm not sure that Terrance Shannon Jr being 24 makes any difference at all. If you get ten (10) solid years from a draft pick in the 20s, you've hit a home run. I'd be ecstatic with him...he might be the player most ready to contribute in the entire draft.

Scheierman would be nice, too.

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[Slim Tubby]

As a Gopher fan, I like Christie's potential as a shooter but physically, he's two (2) years away from being ready to contribute on both sides of the ball, especially defensively.

He's a perfect "stash" prospect IMO.

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[younggunsmn]

People are quick to bring up how much of a bargain that someone in the mold of Minott is because he's got so much potential at such a low salary. But how close is he to realizing is that potential? If you think an older player could step in right away as a rotation player, isn't that a better financial move for our draft pick than drafting someone who is still a year or two away from being in a rotation? The financial crunch is now, not in two years.

Yes, you draft a guy with potential hoping that he gives you meaningful minutes a year or two down the road.
If that doesn't materialize, the pick is a bust no matter how tantalizing the talent of the prospect.
Minott couldn't even get on the floor for his college team and it's no surprise he is a bust so far.

You can also draft an older player thinking his floor is lower and there is a better chance he will actually be able to contribute meaningful minutes for you, and if that doesn't materialize, the player is still a bust (Wendell Moore for example).
There is no guarantee an older player can step in right away.
The leap in competition level is substantial.

You can overrate both a player's current skills and potential to improve.
But the younger guys by and large go a lot earlier in the draft, skill level being equal.

Sure, of course it can go both ways. But to my broader point...the financial crunch is now, not in two years. If they think someone like Kolek, Scheierman, or whoever can come in now and contribute, it's not a sunk cost in the middle of a cap crunch like it is if they are drafting more with an eye on the future. If you're drafting someone for two years from now, he still gets a salary and it's still on the books this year (unless it's a draft and stash). Paying $3 million and getting no production isn't ideal asset management once you start calculating luxury tax payments on those DNP-CDs.

Well Rookie Scale of #27 is 2.55 million and a 2 year vet min is 2.2 million.
It's our own dumb fault picking up Moore's option for next year when it was pretty clear he couldn't play at this level.

But I get your point about it being harder to carry essentially dead salary with a player you can't reliably put on the floor, which is why I think it's a possibility Minott is cut.
That being said, I feel the roster spot is a much bigger deal than the salary when you are talking young players on a team that expects to contend, unless you are talking a lottery pick or something like that.

For what it's worth, if we wanted to trade up the difference between 27 and 22 in salary will be about 520k which is about 2-2.5 million when luxury taxes are figured in.

[younggunsmn]

As a Gopher fan, I like Christie's potential as a shooter but physically, he's two (2) years away from being ready to contribute on both sides of the ball, especially defensively.

He's a perfect "stash" prospect IMO.

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Christie would be another Minott pick.

[younggunsmn]

I'm not sure that Terrance Shannon Jr being 24 makes any difference at all. If you get ten (10) solid years from a draft pick in the 20s, you've hit a home run. I'd be ecstatic with him...he might be the player most ready to contribute in the entire draft.

Scheierman would be nice, too.

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Maybe not.
He's older than both Ant and Jaden, and he played 5 years of college basketball so you would hope he's fully developed at this point.
I do like his ability to get to the line.

I wouldn't be disappointed if we drafted him at 27 but that's because the pickings are kind of slim in this year's draft, really all the way through from 1-60 compared to an average year.

[Klomp]

Read on Twitter

I've gone back to look at some of the biggest "winners" of the Draft Combine scrimmages in recent years.
2023: Brandin Podziemski, Olivier-Maxence Prosper
2022: Jalen Williams, Andrew Nembhard
2021: Jericho Sims, Quentin Grimes
2019: Cody Martin
2018: Donte DiVincenzo, Gary Trent Jr.

[LibertyPrime]

So I got bored and ran the ESPN Mock Simulator again approximately 100x, this time just taking the top ranked prospect at 27/37 regardless of need/position, came up with these percentages:
Bona 17.5 (exclusively 2nd round pick)
Furphy 14.3 (exclusively 1st round)
Dadiet 11.1 (exclusively 2nd round pick)
Ware 10.6 (excl. 1st)
Filipowski 9.0 (excl. 1st)
George 8.5 (excl. 1st)
Schierman 5.8 (sometimes 1st, sometimes 2nd)
...with everyone else at 5% or less (got Dillingham one time).

Got me more interested in Bona and Dadiet, both of whom look like they have a shot. Bona got some dawg in him, man. With Nas becoming more of a big forward it would be nice to have a smash-mouth dude in the second unit.

[Slim Tubby]

As a Gopher fan, I like Christie's potential as a shooter but physically, he's two (2) years away from being ready to contribute on both sides of the ball, especially defensively.

He's a perfect "stash" prospect IMO.

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Christie would be another Minott pick.

I agree completely. I'd actually be disappointed if we drafted him at 37. He seems like a good kid, though, so I'm happy he will get drafted to live the dream.

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[Slim Tubby]

I'm not sure that Terrance Shannon Jr being 24 makes any difference at all. If you get ten (10) solid years from a draft pick in the 20s, you've hit a home run. I'd be ecstatic with him...he might be the player most ready to contribute in the entire draft.

Scheierman would be nice, too.

Sent from my N152DL using RealGM mobile app

Maybe not.
He's older than both Ant and Jaden, and he played 5 years of college basketball so you would hope he's fully developed at this point.
I do like his ability to get to the line.

I wouldn't be disappointed if we drafted him at 27 but that's because the pickings are kind of slim in this year's draft, really all the way through from 1-60 compared to an average year.

I watch a lot of Big 10 hoops so I could be biased in favor of Shannon Jr, too. My prediction is he will go at 17 to the Lakers.

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[Klomp]

Read on Twitter

[Krapinsky]

I'm not very excited about anyone and haven't studied much, but wanted to get my thoughts on the record for tradition sake.

I think Dillingham has most star potential in the draft and think Castle is most sure thing.

I think it's a weaker crop of foreign players that are being over drafted due to a bad crop of college players.

My fav player we have a slim chance of getting is Carrington however unlikely it may be (maybe if we can package our picks and trade up?). I think Mavs exposed our need for another playmaker beyond Ant. Carrington doesn't have a ton of juice, but seems steady enough and I think with his youth and developing body he has some upside. Reminds me of Markelle Fultz but hopefully without his mental block/shooting woes.

Assuming we can't trade up, then as a back up plan I'd be cool with waiting on Ajay Mitchell who sometimes looks like a younger, skinner Jamal Murray without range. He is an adept ball handler that is not afraid to attack which I think is precisely what we need.

Of the old guys that might be around at 37, I like Larson and McCullough the most. Both seem like heady two-way role players that fill up the stat sheet. Long term I'd rather bet on McCullough developing a consistent jumper over Scheierman developing better lateral quickness, though I'll admit with Scheirman it'd be fun to see Finch open up the playbook a little more.

[Neeva]

IMO I think Castle will be one of the top ten that dissapoint. He isn’t dynamic enough athletically and is not a good shooter. He has been helped getting a uconn bump, playing on a talented team full of 5th year seniors and very well coached. Same thing with Clingan who is a big plodder.

Dillingham’s defense is horrendous but I do think he could be good offensively and put up big numbers but on a bad team. He won’t be as good as Maxey and I don’t think he is the kind of player that you can win a lot with if he is starting for you.

Apparently Phoenix wants to draft Ryan Dunn,who is basically Okogie 2.0 but possibly an even worse shooter.