Suns Even More All In w/Wizards

[Godaddycurse]

I'm assuming you aren't aware that Avdija blew up last season. Since February, he has averaged 19/9/4 on .604 TS% while playing borderline elite defense. He's actually been producing like that most of the season, but they were playing him 27 minutes a game in the first half of the season rather than the 35 he deserves. The second half of the season demonstrated that the production was legit over 35 minutes. His per-minute production actually improved with more minutes.

And his production wasn't just empty stats. When Avdija was on the court, he had the horrific Wizards roster playing like a respectable 37-win team (going by on/off differential). When he was off, they played like a 10-win team. And Avdija is locked into the best non-rookie contract in the league that pays him just $13M a year.

Here is a per-36 minute comparison of Avdija and Mikal Bridges. Mikal Bridges was just traded for 5 FRP's, 4 of them unprotected.



And here is a per-36 minute comparison of Avdija versus Scottie Barnes. Barnes just signed a max contract. Avdija will cost $32M less per season than Barnes. $32 million!



So, no. The Wizards aren't trading Avdija for what amounts to a single FRP. (I'm assuming that Butler and the 2 SRP's the Wizards are sending out plus the cost of absorbing Nurkic's contract is worth the price of the #22 pick alone. So effectively the Wizards are trading Avdija for a single FRP 7 years down the road.)

Factoring Avdija's age, contract, and the fact that he is improving, I would honestly expect a trade package similar to what the Knicks just gave Brooklyn for Mikal Bridges. THAT'S how far off this trade proposal is.

barnes is much more likely to make 38M/yr than 45. i dont think raptors will wn enough games for him to make All Nba. Barnes also has 1 less year in the league than avdija so he might become better in a year and make the difference in salary less pronouced

[nate33]

I'm assuming you aren't aware that Avdija blew up last season. Since February, he has averaged 19/9/4 on .604 TS% while playing borderline elite defense. He's actually been producing like that most of the season, but they were playing him 27 minutes a game in the first half of the season rather than the 35 he deserves. The second half of the season demonstrated that the production was legit over 35 minutes. His per-minute production actually improved with more minutes.

And his production wasn't just empty stats. When Avdija was on the court, he had the horrific Wizards roster playing like a respectable 37-win team (going by on/off differential). When he was off, they played like a 10-win team. And Avdija is locked into the best non-rookie contract in the league that pays him just $13M a year.

Here is a per-36 minute comparison of Avdija and Mikal Bridges. Mikal Bridges was just traded for 5 FRP's, 4 of them unprotected.



And here is a per-36 minute comparison of Avdija versus Scottie Barnes. Barnes just signed a max contract. Avdija will cost $32M less per season than Barnes. $32 million!



So, no. The Wizards aren't trading Avdija for what amounts to a single FRP. (I'm assuming that Butler and the 2 SRP's the Wizards are sending out plus the cost of absorbing Nurkic's contract is worth the price of the #22 pick alone. So effectively the Wizards are trading Avdija for a single FRP 7 years down the road.)

Factoring Avdija's age, contract, and the fact that he is improving, I would honestly expect a trade package similar to what the Knicks just gave Brooklyn for Mikal Bridges. THAT'S how far off this trade proposal is.

barnes is much more likely to make 38M/yr than 45. i dont think raptors will wn enough games for him to make All Nba. Barnes also has 1 less year in the league than avdija so he might become better in a year and make the difference in salary less pronouced

The $45M a year assumes that he DOESN'T make All-NBA. If he makes All-NBA, then he gets the 5/$270 contract that averages $54M a year. Think about that. He would be making $41M per year more than Deni. You could have 4 Deni Avdija's for the cost of one Scottie Barnes!

And I'm not even trying to argue that Avdija is better than Barnes. I'm just pointing out that they're in the same general tier of production, which serves to highlight how incredibly cheap Avdija. And that cheap salary massively boosts his trade value. I don't think people are properly factoring how important it is that Avdija costs practically nothing relative to similarly productive players.

[Godaddycurse]

I'm assuming you aren't aware that Avdija blew up last season. Since February, he has averaged 19/9/4 on .604 TS% while playing borderline elite defense. He's actually been producing like that most of the season, but they were playing him 27 minutes a game in the first half of the season rather than the 35 he deserves. The second half of the season demonstrated that the production was legit over 35 minutes. His per-minute production actually improved with more minutes.

And his production wasn't just empty stats. When Avdija was on the court, he had the horrific Wizards roster playing like a respectable 37-win team (going by on/off differential). When he was off, they played like a 10-win team. And Avdija is locked into the best non-rookie contract in the league that pays him just $13M a year.

Here is a per-36 minute comparison of Avdija and Mikal Bridges. Mikal Bridges was just traded for 5 FRP's, 4 of them unprotected.



And here is a per-36 minute comparison of Avdija versus Scottie Barnes. Barnes just signed a max contract. Avdija will cost $32M less per season than Barnes. $32 million!



So, no. The Wizards aren't trading Avdija for what amounts to a single FRP. (I'm assuming that Butler and the 2 SRP's the Wizards are sending out plus the cost of absorbing Nurkic's contract is worth the price of the #22 pick alone. So effectively the Wizards are trading Avdija for a single FRP 7 years down the road.)

Factoring Avdija's age, contract, and the fact that he is improving, I would honestly expect a trade package similar to what the Knicks just gave Brooklyn for Mikal Bridges. THAT'S how far off this trade proposal is.

barnes is much more likely to make 38M/yr than 45. i dont think raptors will wn enough games for him to make All Nba. Barnes also has 1 less year in the league than avdija so he might become better in a year and make the difference in salary less pronouced

The $45M a year assumes that he DOESN'T make All-NBA. If he makes All-NBA, then he gets the 5/$270 contract that averages $54M a year. Think about that. He would be making $41M per year more than Deni. You could have 4 Deni Avdija's for the cost of one Scottie Barnes!

And I'm not even trying to argue that Avdija is better than Barnes. I'm just pointing out that they're in the same general tier of production, which serves to highlight how incredibly cheap Avdija. And that cheap salary massively boosts his trade value. I don't think people are properly factoring how important it is that Avdija costs practically nothing relative to similarly productive players.

ah i thought you meant his starting salary, not average. my mistake

[jredsaz]

I'm assuming you aren't aware that Avdija blew up last season. Since February, he has averaged 19/9/4 on .604 TS% while playing borderline elite defense. He's actually been producing like that most of the season, but they were playing him 27 minutes a game in the first half of the season rather than the 35 he deserves. The second half of the season demonstrated that the production was legit over 35 minutes. His per-minute production actually improved with more minutes.

And his production wasn't just empty stats. When Avdija was on the court, he had the horrific Wizards roster playing like a respectable 37-win team (going by on/off differential). When he was off, they played like a 10-win team. And Avdija is locked into the best non-rookie contract in the league that pays him just $13M a year.

Here is a per-36 minute comparison of Avdija and Mikal Bridges. Mikal Bridges was just traded for 5 FRP's, 4 of them unprotected.



And here is a per-36 minute comparison of Avdija versus Scottie Barnes. Barnes just signed a max contract. Avdija will cost $32M less per season than Barnes. $32 million!



So, no. The Wizards aren't trading Avdija for what amounts to a single FRP. (I'm assuming that Butler and the 2 SRP's the Wizards are sending out plus the cost of absorbing Nurkic's contract is worth the price of the #22 pick alone. So effectively the Wizards are trading Avdija for a single FRP 7 years down the road.)

Factoring Avdija's age, contract, and the fact that he is improving, I would honestly expect a trade package similar to what the Knicks just gave Brooklyn for Mikal Bridges. THAT'S how far off this trade proposal is.

Okay, that last part is hilarious. I know Deni has improved. That’s why I proposed the deal. Figured it was off in value by some measure but the draft is today and running out of time to have fun with draft trades. You’re underestimating the value of that 2031 pick tho. Not as bad as you are over valuing Deni, but you are.

[nate33]

I'm assuming you aren't aware that Avdija blew up last season. Since February, he has averaged 19/9/4 on .604 TS% while playing borderline elite defense. He's actually been producing like that most of the season, but they were playing him 27 minutes a game in the first half of the season rather than the 35 he deserves. The second half of the season demonstrated that the production was legit over 35 minutes. His per-minute production actually improved with more minutes.

And his production wasn't just empty stats. When Avdija was on the court, he had the horrific Wizards roster playing like a respectable 37-win team (going by on/off differential). When he was off, they played like a 10-win team. And Avdija is locked into the best non-rookie contract in the league that pays him just $13M a year.

Here is a per-36 minute comparison of Avdija and Mikal Bridges. Mikal Bridges was just traded for 5 FRP's, 4 of them unprotected.



And here is a per-36 minute comparison of Avdija versus Scottie Barnes. Barnes just signed a max contract. Avdija will cost $32M less per season than Barnes. $32 million!



So, no. The Wizards aren't trading Avdija for what amounts to a single FRP. (I'm assuming that Butler and the 2 SRP's the Wizards are sending out plus the cost of absorbing Nurkic's contract is worth the price of the #22 pick alone. So effectively the Wizards are trading Avdija for a single FRP 7 years down the road.)

Factoring Avdija's age, contract, and the fact that he is improving, I would honestly expect a trade package similar to what the Knicks just gave Brooklyn for Mikal Bridges. THAT'S how far off this trade proposal is.

Okay, that last part is hilarious. I know Deni has improved. That’s why I proposed the deal. Figured it was off in value by some measure but the draft is today and running out of time to have fun with draft trades. You’re underestimating the value of that 2031 pick tho. Not as bad as you are over valuing Deni, but you are.

Look at the numbers bro. How am I overvaluing him? He is producing big numbers, and when he is on the court, the Wizards play much better. How else do you assess the value of a player?

He is outpacing Bridges in nearly every statistical category while costing 60% as much and is locked up for 2 extra years.

[jredsaz]

I'm assuming you aren't aware that Avdija blew up last season. Since February, he has averaged 19/9/4 on .604 TS% while playing borderline elite defense. He's actually been producing like that most of the season, but they were playing him 27 minutes a game in the first half of the season rather than the 35 he deserves. The second half of the season demonstrated that the production was legit over 35 minutes. His per-minute production actually improved with more minutes.

And his production wasn't just empty stats. When Avdija was on the court, he had the horrific Wizards roster playing like a respectable 37-win team (going by on/off differential). When he was off, they played like a 10-win team. And Avdija is locked into the best non-rookie contract in the league that pays him just $13M a year.

Here is a per-36 minute comparison of Avdija and Mikal Bridges. Mikal Bridges was just traded for 5 FRP's, 4 of them unprotected.



And here is a per-36 minute comparison of Avdija versus Scottie Barnes. Barnes just signed a max contract. Avdija will cost $32M less per season than Barnes. $32 million!



So, no. The Wizards aren't trading Avdija for what amounts to a single FRP. (I'm assuming that Butler and the 2 SRP's the Wizards are sending out plus the cost of absorbing Nurkic's contract is worth the price of the #22 pick alone. So effectively the Wizards are trading Avdija for a single FRP 7 years down the road.)

Factoring Avdija's age, contract, and the fact that he is improving, I would honestly expect a trade package similar to what the Knicks just gave Brooklyn for Mikal Bridges. THAT'S how far off this trade proposal is.

Okay, that last part is hilarious. I know Deni has improved. That’s why I proposed the deal. Figured it was off in value by some measure but the draft is today and running out of time to have fun with draft trades. You’re underestimating the value of that 2031 pick tho. Not as bad as you are over valuing Deni, but you are.

Look at the numbers bro. How am I overvaluing him? He is producing big numbers, and when he is on the court, the Wizards play much better. How else do you assess the value of a player?

He is outpacing Bridges in nearly every statistical category while costing 60% as much and is locked up for 2 extra years.

You’re using a single season to make all your valuations. More than that, Knicks overpaid for Bridges. Deni is a good player but come on man.

[nate33]

Look at the numbers bro. How am I overvaluing him? He is producing big numbers, and when he is on the court, the Wizards play much better. How else do you assess the value of a player?

He is outpacing Bridges in nearly every statistical category while costing 60% as much and is locked up for 2 extra years.

You’re using a single season to make all your valuations. More than that, Knicks overpaid for Bridges. Deni is a good player but come on man.

With young players, you usually use their most recent season to evaluate them, no?

The way things work in the NBA is that teams generally don't trade away 23-year-old two-way players posting near All-Star caliber numbers in exchange for a mystery pick in the distant future. Particularly not when the guy is locked into the best non-rookie contract in the league. It's not happening.

[jredsaz]

Look at the numbers bro. How am I overvaluing him? He is producing big numbers, and when he is on the court, the Wizards play much better. How else do you assess the value of a player?

He is outpacing Bridges in nearly every statistical category while costing 60% as much and is locked up for 2 extra years.

You’re using a single season to make all your valuations. More than that, Knicks overpaid for Bridges. Deni is a good player but come on man.

With young players, you usually use their most recent season to evaluate them, no?

The way things work in the NBA is that teams generally don't trade away 23-year-old two-way players posting near All-Star caliber numbers in exchange for a mystery pick in the distant future. Particularly not when the guy is locked into the best non-rookie contract in the league. It's not happening.

He posted near all star numbers for a month and a half on a team that went 6-22 during that stretch.

[nate33]

You’re using a single season to make all your valuations. More than that, Knicks overpaid for Bridges. Deni is a good player but come on man.

With young players, you usually use their most recent season to evaluate them, no?

The way things work in the NBA is that teams generally don't trade away 23-year-old two-way players posting near All-Star caliber numbers in exchange for a mystery pick in the distant future. Particularly not when the guy is locked into the best non-rookie contract in the league. It's not happening.

He posted near all star numbers for a month and a half on a team that went 6-22 during that stretch.

28 games is two full months. And he posted them for the entire season on a per-minute basis with his big jump in per-minute production actually starting at Christmas. He just didn't get more minutes until later in the year. Indeed, his per minute averages actually went up substantially when his minute load increased. This is not a fluke. Or more importantly, the Wizards certainly aren't going to attribute his production as a fluke and randomly opt to trade him for a pick in the 2031 draft!

[jredsaz]

With young players, you usually use their most recent season to evaluate them, no?

The way things work in the NBA is that teams generally don't trade away 23-year-old two-way players posting near All-Star caliber numbers in exchange for a mystery pick in the distant future. Particularly not when the guy is locked into the best non-rookie contract in the league. It's not happening.

He posted near all star numbers for a month and a half on a team that went 6-22 during that stretch.

28 games is two full months. And he posted them for the entire season on a per-minute basis with his big jump in per-minute production actually starting at Christmas. He just didn't get more minutes until later in the year. Indeed, his per minute averages actually went up substantially when his minute load increased. This is not a fluke. Or more importantly, the Wizards certainly aren't going to attribute his production as a fluke and randomly opt to trade him for a pick in the 2031 draft!

Might as well hang the jersey in the rafters Deni is a good player.

[Benjammin]

Somehow everyone wants to do the Wizards a "favor" by taking Deni off their hands like Ernie F. Grunfeld is still the GM.

Sent from my SM-S918U using Tapatalk

[babyjax13]

Avdija is very good and young Washington isn't trading him for this.

[Benjammin]

So, uh, exactly what does crow taste like and what's the best condiment to use?

[Mr Puddles]

The market has spoken, ya'll owe JRedsaz an apology.

[hugepatsfan]

lol

#22 is a lower pick than #16. Nurkic is multi year bad money vs Brogdon expiring. I do think a '31 unprotected Phoenix 1st is better than the '29 pick WAS got. So I'd say OP is still off some here.... but yeah he was a lot closer than the WAS fans haha

[jredsaz]

The market has spoken, ya'll owe JRedsaz an apology.

[jredsaz]

lol

#22 is a lower pick than #16. Nurkic is multi year bad money vs Brogdon expiring. I do think a '31 unprotected Phoenix 1st is better than the '29 pick WAS got. So I'd say OP is still off some here.... but yeah he was a lot closer than the WAS fans haha

I was pretty damn close. I agree the Portland deal was a little bit better because of the expiring but that could be outweighed but that 2031 pick. The 2029 pick is the less favorable. I honestly think what went down is a bit of an underpay.

[louc1970]

Somehow everyone wants to do the Wizards a "favor" by taking Deni off their hands like Ernie F. Grunfeld is still the GM.

Sent from my SM-S918U using Tapatalk

And then the trade happened! I value Avdija much more than the Wizards apparently.

[Mr Puddles]

lol

#22 is a lower pick than #16. Nurkic is multi year bad money vs Brogdon expiring. I do think a '31 unprotected Phoenix 1st is better than the '29 pick WAS got. So I'd say OP is still off some here.... but yeah he was a lot closer than the WAS fans haha

Wizards got more value than OP offered, but i don't think it's by that much

• ' 31 top 1 protected is quite a bit more valuable than least valuable out of two '29 protected.
• wizards move up 8 spots in what's reportedly a weak draft
• Brogdon has 1 year left, Nurkic has 2 years left. I'd rather have the brogdon deal ofcourse, he's the better player on a better contract, but the difference in length is only one season - not a huge concern for a wizards team that will be going through a multi-year rebuild.

I'd say the value of the 31 pick is pretty close to offsetting the Brogdon deal and moving up 8 points in the draft, and OP had a few second rounders coming the Suns' way.

We never get trades 100% right, and I think OP was only a few second rounders off IMO.

[giberish]

lol

#22 is a lower pick than #16. Nurkic is multi year bad money vs Brogdon expiring. I do think a '31 unprotected Phoenix 1st is better than the '29 pick WAS got. So I'd say OP is still off some here.... but yeah he was a lot closer than the WAS fans haha

I was pretty damn close. I agree the Portland deal was a little bit better because of the expiring but that could be outweighed but that 2031 pick. The 2029 pick is the less favorable. I honestly think what went down is a bit of an underpay.

The 2029 1st is middle of 3. So less upside than an unprotected distant 1st but less downside and sooner. Still likely seen as less valuable but perhaps not that much. Still much closer overall than I expected.