Kings/Wizards

[Rafael122]

The Bridges trade changes things for me. I agree to a crux of a deal sending Kuzma to Sacramento, but I'm not trading 26. It's 13, salary filler and a future first round pick. I'm not expecting a Bridges-like haul, but I'm asking for two first round picks...at least.

I think you're probably right, but it's futile to argue that here. Everyone hates Kuzma on the trade board. They look at his somewhat inefficient volume scoring totally out of context.

4 years ago, Kuzma was 5th in total minutes and 6th in total playoff minutes on a championship team.
3 years ago, Kuzma was 2nd in total minutes for a 48-win Lakers team (projection onto an 82-game season)

So he was basically the 5th guy on a champion, which likely means he was probably good enough to be the 4th best guy on a mid-tier playoff team.

In his 3 years in Washington, his usage climbed from 20.3% in his last year in LA, to 24.2%, to 27.9% to 29.7%. Despite taking on that massive increase in usage, his TS% remained exactly the same, going from .546 to .547 to .544 to .547. I think it's reasonable to argue that this had demonstrated a considerable offensive improvement. Jumping from 20% usage to 30% usage is a MASSIVE increase, and doing so without losing any efficiency means he has gotten much better at making more difficult shots against greater defensive attention.

So if you take that useful 4th man on a playoff team, factor 3 years of obvious improvement, I think it's reasonable to argue he is a legit 3rd starter on a playoff team, or at least a very good 4th starter. But guys dump on him because he is in over his head as the primary offensive threat on a bad team.

Right, a lot of this is based on pre-conceived notions on who these players are. Bridges was the 3rd guy in Phoenix, showed off being a main guy in Brooklyn for like 2 months. Now he's being traded to a team where he might be the 4th option? And you traded 6 picks for that. I get it, but the price for Kuzma has gone up IMO as a result.

[Scoot McGroot]

Well, I was not expecting anyone to compare Kuzma to Bridges, and I don’t see how the Bridges trade impacts Kuzma’s trade value one iota. That Bridges is he better offensive player (ts% and usage compared) AND an insanely better defender means that he gets a major premium over a guy that’s below league average TS% (even if on a higher volume) and a terrible defender.

Kuzma should be compared to a Tim Hardaway Jr rather than a Mikal Bridges, no? Slightly below average efficiency on volume, bad defenders, but still useful players? Like, +-10% to your favored player?

[penbeast0]

Well, I was not expecting anyone to compare Kuzma to Bridges, and I don’t see how the Bridges trade impacts Kuzma’s trade value one iota. That Bridges is he better offensive player (ts% and usage compared) AND an insanely better defender means that he gets a major premium over a guy that’s below league average TS% (even if on a higher volume) and a terrible defender.

Kuzma should be compared to a Tim Hardaway Jr rather than a Mikal Bridges, no? Slightly below average efficiency on volume, bad defenders, but still useful players? Like, +-10% to your favored player?

THJ is a pretty cheap comp, his shots come with Doncic drawing a lot of the defensive focus. A closer comp might be Cade Cunningham . . . both 1st options for awful teams, similar efficiency (this year, Kuzma's has been superior the rest of their careers), similar defense, both decent but not great playmakers for their respective positions. Cade is the better rebounder for his position and, of course, much younger with a correspondingly greater chance to change his game so correspondingly more valuable but as a comp of his impact it's closer.

[nate33]

Well, I was not expecting anyone to compare Kuzma to Bridges, and I don’t see how the Bridges trade impacts Kuzma’s trade value one iota. That Bridges is he better offensive player (ts% and usage compared) AND an insanely better defender means that he gets a major premium over a guy that’s below league average TS% (even if on a higher volume) and a terrible defender.

Kuzma should be compared to a Tim Hardaway Jr rather than a Mikal Bridges, no? Slightly below average efficiency on volume, bad defenders, but still useful players? Like, +-10% to your favored player?

THJ is a pretty cheap comp, his shots come with Doncic drawing a lot of the defensive focus. A closer comp might be Cade Cunningham . . . both 1st options for awful teams, similar efficiency (this year, Kuzma's has been superior the rest of their careers), similar defense, both decent but not great playmakers for their respective positions. Cade is the better rebounder for his position and, of course, much younger with a correspondingly greater chance to change his game so correspondingly more valuable but as a comp of his impact it's closer.

Another comp would be Jerami Grant. Kuzma rebounds way better than either Grant or Cade. Grant is the most efficient scorer of the three, particularly from 3, but at a much greater cost. Cade passes better but at a cost of more turnovers, and he is about to get extremely expensive.

[OGSactownballer]

Well, I was not expecting anyone to compare Kuzma to Bridges, and I don’t see how the Bridges trade impacts Kuzma’s trade value one iota. That Bridges is he better offensive player (ts% and usage compared) AND an insanely better defender means that he gets a major premium over a guy that’s below league average TS% (even if on a higher volume) and a terrible defender.

Kuzma should be compared to a Tim Hardaway Jr rather than a Mikal Bridges, no? Slightly below average efficiency on volume, bad defenders, but still useful players? Like, +-10% to your favored player?

THJ is a pretty cheap comp, his shots come with Doncic drawing a lot of the defensive focus. A closer comp might be Cade Cunningham . . . both 1st options for awful teams, similar efficiency (this year, Kuzma's has been superior the rest of their careers), similar defense, both decent but not great playmakers for their respective positions. Cade is the better rebounder for his position and, of course, much younger with a correspondingly greater chance to change his game so correspondingly more valuable but as a comp of his impact it's closer.

Another comp would be Jerami Grant. Kuzma rebounds way better than either Grant of Cade. Grant is the most efficient scorer of the three, particularly from 3, but at a much greater cost. Cade passes better but at a cost of more turnovers, and he is about to get extremely expensive.

These feel like good comps as players but not as trade value pieces.

Obviously the value on Cade is going to far exceed the other two because he is still early in the “potential” range of his career.

Grants value is greatest to an actual contending team as he is a known quantity and pretty expensive for being your fifth starter/sixth man but may be the consistent piece that puts you over the top.

Kuzma has the least return value of the three as he isn’t that young anymore, not too expensive though and basically can effectively play only one position (I wouldn’t want him at SF more than a couple minutes here and there for big lineups and NEVER at Center) and is not a standout at that one. But for the right team (the Kings) he is a good fit piece at a position of need and is fairly efficient.

So I go back to what feels a fair deal to me which is Huerter/Mitchell or Sasha/13/45 For Kuzma/26 which tilts some to WAS favor but is a fair deal because they ease some of our salary tightness.

My end goal for the Kings is add Kuzma, keep a late and cheap draft pick and drop below the tax line enough to have the full NTMLE available to fill in the hole (b/u wing) on the roster.

For WAS they get two young guards a better pick and a flyer 2nd and if they don’t like things can dump the money at season end for cap and move Huerter elsewhere as he has value around the league.

[nate33]

Obviously the value on Cade is going to far exceed the other two because he is still early in the “potential” range of his career.

Agreed

Grants value is greatest to an actual contending team as he is a known quantity and pretty expensive for being your fifth starter/sixth man but may be the consistent piece that puts you over the top.

Disagree. The problem is, contending teams don't have $33M in salary to throw around. I think Kuzma is more valuable because he can be fit into a payroll structure without blowing it up. I think teams would gladly sacrifice 2 or 3% in TS% to get back a guy that costs $12M less and pulls down twice as many rebounds. It also helps that Kuzma rarely gets hurt.

[Scoot McGroot]

Obviously the value on Cade is going to far exceed the other two because he is still early in the “potential” range of his career.

Agreed

Grants value is greatest to an actual contending team as he is a known quantity and pretty expensive for being your fifth starter/sixth man but may be the consistent piece that puts you over the top.

Disagree. The problem is, contending teams don't have $33M in salary to throw around. I think Kuzma is more valuable because he can be fit into a payroll structure without blowing it up. I think teams would gladly sacrifice 2 or 3% in TS% to get back a guy that costs $12M less and pulls down twice as many rebounds. It also helps that Kuzma rarely gets hurt.

[/quote]


I don’t know. Grant has shown that he CAN defend well in the nba in the last, if he focuses more there than the offensive end. Kuzma has shown he doesn’t really care to defend, if he ever could. I think teams will place at least some value on that defensive end, if not a ton.

[nate33]

Obviously the value on Cade is going to far exceed the other two because he is still early in the “potential” range of his career.

Agreed

Grants value is greatest to an actual contending team as he is a known quantity and pretty expensive for being your fifth starter/sixth man but may be the consistent piece that puts you over the top.

Disagree. The problem is, contending teams don't have $33M in salary to throw around. I think Kuzma is more valuable because he can be fit into a payroll structure without blowing it up. I think teams would gladly sacrifice 2 or 3% in TS% to get back a guy that costs $12M less and pulls down twice as many rebounds. It also helps that Kuzma rarely gets hurt.

I don’t know. Grant has shown that he CAN defend well in the nba in the last, if he focuses more there than the offensive end. Kuzma has shown he doesn’t really care to defend, if he ever could. I think teams will place at least some value on that defensive end, if not a ton.

I've never considered Kuzma to be that bad of a defender. He's not a stopper or anything, but he's fine. It's not like teams try and pick on him or anything. And you can't overlook Grant's truly anemic rebounding. Rebounding is part of defense too.

[Scoot McGroot]

Agreed


Disagree. The problem is, contending teams don't have $33M in salary to throw around. I think Kuzma is more valuable because he can be fit into a payroll structure without blowing it up. I think teams would gladly sacrifice 2 or 3% in TS% to get back a guy that costs $12M less and pulls down twice as many rebounds. It also helps that Kuzma rarely gets hurt.

I don’t know. Grant has shown that he CAN defend well in the nba in the last, if he focuses more there than the offensive end. Kuzma has shown he doesn’t really care to defend, if he ever could. I think teams will place at least some value on that defensive end, if not a ton.

I've never considered Kuzma to be that bad of a defender. He's not a stopper or anything, but he's fine. It's not like teams try and pick on him or anything. And you can't overlook Grant's truly anemic rebounding. Rebounding is part of defense too.

I’ve never considered Kuzma to be anything better than a bad defender. He loses interest and he’s just not very talented when he is dialed in. He was picked on in LA, and o think he’s only not in Washington because there’s just too many easy open holes defensively for opponents to otherwise take.

Otherwise, Team rebounding is part of defense in a way, sure. But individual rebounding isn’t as specifically insightful. Guys that guard on the perimeter and that take tough assignments get less opportunities to rebound as they’re contesting shots on the perimeter more often. And, of course, some guys vulture as many team rebounds as possible to make their raw stats look better.

[nate33]

I’ve never considered Kuzma to be anything better than a bad defender. He loses interest and he’s just not very talented when he is dialed in. He was picked on in LA, and o think he’s only not in Washington because there’s just too many easy open holes defensively for opponents to otherwise take.

But doesn't that argument also apply to Grant in Portland? Portland's DRtg was only 2 points higher than Washington's.

[Scoot McGroot]

I’ve never considered Kuzma to be anything better than a bad defender. He loses interest and he’s just not very talented when he is dialed in. He was picked on in LA, and o think he’s only not in Washington because there’s just too many easy open holes defensively for opponents to otherwise take.

But doesn't that argument also apply to Grant in Portland? Portland's DRtg was only 2 points higher than Washington's.

I said specifically “ Grant has shown that he CAN defend well in the nba in the [p]ast” (mistyped past as “last”). I didn’t specifically mean that Grant was an amazing defender last year for Portland, but Grant made his way in the nba as a positive wing defender. His offensive “explosion” in Detroit was a huge surprise.

[OGSactownballer]

Obviously the value on Cade is going to far exceed the other two because he is still early in the “potential” range of his career.

Agreed

Grants value is greatest to an actual contending team as he is a known quantity and pretty expensive for being your fifth starter/sixth man but may be the consistent piece that puts you over the top.

Disagree. The problem is, contending teams don't have $33M in salary to throw around. I think Kuzma is more valuable because he can be fit into a payroll structure without blowing it up. I think teams would gladly sacrifice 2 or 3% in TS% to get back a guy that costs $12M less and pulls down twice as many rebounds. It also helps that Kuzma rarely gets hurt.

I can see your points there and they make sense. So that being the case the rankings would be:

Cade
Kuzma
Grant

[The Beam King]

The Bridges trade changes things for me. I agree to a crux of a deal sending Kuzma to Sacramento, but I'm not trading 26. It's 13, salary filler and a future first round pick. I'm not expecting a Bridges-like haul, but I'm asking for two first round picks...at least.

I think you're probably right, but it's futile to argue that here. Everyone hates Kuzma on the trade board. They look at his somewhat inefficient volume scoring totally out of context.

4 years ago, Kuzma was 5th in total minutes and 6th in total playoff minutes on a championship team.
3 years ago, Kuzma was 2nd in total minutes for a 48-win Lakers team (projection onto an 82-game season)

So he was basically the 5th guy on a champion, which likely means he was probably good enough to be the 4th best guy on a mid-tier playoff team.

In his 3 years in Washington, his usage climbed from 20.3% in his last year in LA, to 24.2%, to 27.9% to 29.7%. Despite taking on that massive increase in usage, his TS% remained exactly the same, going from .546 to .547 to .544 to .547. I think it's reasonable to argue that this had demonstrated a considerable offensive improvement. Jumping from 20% usage to 30% usage is a MASSIVE increase, and doing so without losing any efficiency means he has gotten much better at making more difficult shots against greater defensive attention.

So if you take that useful 4th man on a playoff team, factor 3 years of obvious improvement, I think it's reasonable to argue he is a legit 3rd starter on a playoff team, or at least a very good 4th starter. But guys dump on him because he is in over his head as the primary offensive threat on a bad team.

Right, a lot of this is based on pre-conceived notions on who these players are. Bridges was the 3rd guy in Phoenix, showed off being a main guy in Brooklyn for like 2 months. Now he's being traded to a team where he might be the 4th option? And you traded 6 picks for that. I get it, but the price for Kuzma has gone up IMO as a result.

Geeat. I'm glad tobhear that. I want kuzma nowhere near our roster. I didn't like any proposal that brought him tonsac to begin with.