WOJ: Blazers trade Brogdon and 14 for WAS or Deni Avdija

[Shem]

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[DusterBuster]

Jake Fisher on the Deni deal

Portland has to be thrilled about landing Clingan without having to sacrifice any future draft capital. The Blazers had pursued the 7-footer who anchored UConn’s national championship throughout this entire pre-draft cycle. It presents some questions about Portland’s crowded frontcourt with Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams already on the roster, but there are plenty of scouts and NBA talent evaluators who believe Clingan presents All-Defense-worthy intangibles, in addition to his fluidity at his staggering size.

Acquiring Avdija was an interesting piece of business as well, as the Blazers landed the 23-year-old forward in a move that sent out Brogdon and got them under the luxury tax threshold. By swapping Brodgon’s $22.5 million salary for next season in favor of Avdija’s new four-year, $55 million deal that begins in 2024-25, that now leaves Portland roughly $1 million under the luxury tax. The Blazers have projected an interest to compete for the playoffs next season, but this was not a roster that any front office would have felt was tax-worthy. And Avdija has been a developing defender who’s drawn interest from various contenders, to the point Washington had been telling interested teams it would take a pair of first-round picks to part with the Israeli forward. Avdija’s new deal is considered a value contract by team strategists, particularly if he can continue to improve during his fifth NBA season.

The price to save all that money and land a rising player, however, was surely steep. Not only did Portland hand Washington the No. 14 pick that became Bub Carrington out of Pittsburgh, but the Blazers also sent a 2029 first-round pick, plus second-rounders in 2028 and 2030. It’s quite the return for the Wizards, as Washington’s new front office under Michael Winger has done absolute surgery to the team’s roster and assets.

Bolded for ... wtf

[ThunderBolt]

I think you guys are going to love Deni. He’s one of the top guys I really wanted Presti to get. I shocked Sam didn’t go after him at that price.

[arusinov]

Short explanation about Avdija's game transformation over his NBA career and especially last year (and what kind of player he is, and what kind of player he isn't)

* Year by year part of 3PA among all FGA was decreasing: 53.8% -> 44.7% -> 40.1% -> 29.3%

* Part of FGA at rim (less than 3ft) went in opposite direction: 14.4% -> 22.1% -> 27.8% -> 33.6%

* USG% increased between 1nd & 2nd, and then 3rd & 4th seasons: 12.0% -> 16.3% -> 16.7% -> 20.2%

* More unassisted FGM every year FGM %UAST: 17.7% -> 29.6% -> 35.2% -> 36.9%

* Drew more fouls each year - FTr (FTA per FGA) : .144 -> .235 -> .285 -> .340

* And his TS% went up just as usage went up: 51.5% -> 53.6% -> 53.5% -> 59.7%

- Deni is not 3&D player. Employing him as low usage 3&D player (as Wizards did his rookie season) is very bad idea. He is playmaking wing which needs ball in his hands as secondary creator in order to be efficient.

- Avdija's main ability is getting to the basket, and scoring inside which are based on rare combination of size, quickness, strength, high BBIQ and good enough skills. Certainly improvement in 3P% helped to unlock his driving compelling defenders to respect his shot. But shooting is secondary feature in his scoring comparing to driving, finishing and drawing fouls

What should be in focus next season:

* left hand dribble and finishes - both improved a lot... but still not good enough

* pull-up shots, step-back shots - should be taken more so defenders couldn't go under when he runs p&r

* midrange game - Deni avoids midrange shots almost completely, should be able to take shots when defense is sagging in order to prevent him getting to basket.

To Illustrate Avdija's driving and finishing - "a monster slasher" :

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[Norm2953]

I do think it is possible Portland could compete for a play in spot but it will depend on how good
the Scoot/Sharpe BC will be. Simons will Portland's best guard in 2024/5 with Thybulle getting
some minutes but they will be limited to how well Scoot/Sharpe develop.

Everywhere else the team works fine for Deni and Jerami should play well together and now Portland
has a big, tough physical defender up front to set solid screens, protect the basket and rebound.

Team looks to be a 35 win team, looking to pick in the later half of the 2025 draft, for they will miss
the steady hand of Brogdon

[zzaj]

I like the addition of Deni...I think his connectivity is going to be a big help for the Blazers. I am a little bit worried that he was best with the ball in his hands--that's another player that needs it to be effective. HOWEVER. He did shoot 50+% on C&S threes from the corners. That alone is a godsend for the Blazer offense, which was last in the league in 3pt makes and percentage.

I feel like both Deni and Clingan's willing and very good passing skills will be a helpful boost to the offense as well.

I do think that Clingan will bring a lot of value on opp rim %, screen setting and passing. Gobert-lite with better BBIQ, screen setting and passing, with at least a little bit of shooting ability is a nice addition.

I am not ready to put a win number on the upcoming season until I see what the roster looks like it in the fall. I guessed exactly correct last year...but as usual, injuries or lack thereof will dictate everything in the NBA--including who the champion will be. I will say that if Scoot plays at least as well as he did toward the end of the year and Sharpe plays like he did in late-Nov through mid-Dec, then I feel like the Blazers can add 10 wins to last season. That would put them at 31 wins, which feels about right to me. Maybe as high as 34.

Like it or not:
Scoot
Sharpe
Deni
Clingan
Camara
Banton

is a nice little group of talent for age 24>.

[Red Robot]

He should be fun to watch and I hope he's a future star.

That said, I'm kind of a Deni skeptic. His counting stats look good, but he was in a great situation to to rack those up with a big role on a bad team (we had plenty of opportunity to see this effect firsthand last season). I'm concerned that the way he appears to be pretty good at everything might be hiding the fact that he's not particularly good at anything. It seems like his strengths--size at his position and driving ability--might be hard to really leverage as part of a great team. I don't think Washington would have made this trade if they thought his long-term upside was especially high. At this point I trust the team who worked with him for several years more than I trust the Blazers' scouting and player development staff.

For that reason, I think the price was high. The Blazers are letting a lot of value go for someone who might not move the needle much. I don't think the value is terrible either, but at this point I'm siding with the camp who'd rather use our assets taking bigger swings.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

You guys without a doubt got a great player. Plays hard, plays the right way, is a sneaky good (has nights where he is elite) defender , and really polished his offensive game last season and became a near 20-10 guy the second half of the season.

The Wizards (a team that I've watched for 20 years) are going to majorly regret this trade. You straight up robbed them because we had the petty new GM didn't see him as one of his guys despite him being the best young prospect on the roster. I'm sure you'll hear he didn't fit our timeline, but he's only 23 and it the trade made no sense hence the devastation on the Wizards board (look for yourself).

I wouldn't be shocked to see him put up something like 17-8-4 with great defense and being a super glue guy for you next season.

I'll be watching you guys a lot this upcoming year.

[zzaj]

He should be fun to watch and I hope he's a future star.

That said, I'm kind of a Deni skeptic. His counting stats look good, but he was in a great situation to to rack those up with a big role on a bad team (we had plenty of opportunity to see this effect firsthand last season). I'm concerned that the way he appears to be pretty good at everything might be hiding the fact that he's not particularly good at anything. It seems like his strengths--size at his position and driving ability--might be hard to really leverage as part of a great team. I don't think Washington would have made this trade if they thought his long-term upside was especially high. At this point I trust the team who worked with him for several years more than I trust the Blazers' scouting and player development staff.

For that reason, I think the price was high. The Blazers are letting a lot of value go for someone who might not move the needle much. I don't think the value is terrible either, but at this point I'm siding with the camp who'd rather use our assets taking bigger swings.

Well, look at what the value of Caruso was. Brogdon was likely worth less. If the #14 player in this draft turned into what Deni gives currently, this board would be ECSTATIC. So think of it like the Blazers drafting Deni at #14, especially since he's only 23.

As for giving up the (likely) Boston pick in '29? I don't love it. However, the Blazers will still have their own pick and Milwaukie's...assuming Boston is the best of those teams.

Deni's best trait? He was 90+ percentile in corner C&S 3s. That alone is a massive boon for Portland. Is he going to be a "star"? Not likely. Is he going to be in an ASG? Not likely. Can he have a Detlef Shrempf type career? He's tracking that way...and that's good for the Blazers.

[Red Robot]

Well, look at what the value of Caruso was. Brogdon was likely worth less. If the #14 player in this draft turned into what Deni gives currently, this board would be ECSTATIC. So think of it like the Blazers drafting Deni at #14, especially since he's only 23.

As for giving up the (likely) Boston pick in '29? I don't love it. However, the Blazers will still have their own pick and Milwaukie's...assuming Boston is the best of those teams.

Yeah, I agree with all this. I had hoped Brogdon would be valuable to someone, but it is what it is. It's not so much that I hate to part with any of those assets, it's that if we're going to part with three or more of them, I'd prefer it to be part of something bigger.

Deni's best trait? He was 90+ percentile in corner C&S 3s. That alone is a massive boon for Portland. Is he going to be a "star"? Not likely. Is he going to be in an ASG? Not likely. Can he have a Detlef Shrempf type career? He's tracking that way...and that's good for the Blazers.

I don't think he needs to be a 'star' either. If he becomes a solid starter (i.e., a consistent top-100 or so player) who fits decently well with the other long-term pieces then this was a good trade. There's a decent chance that happens but also a decent chance it doesn't.

[Shem]

Here are the Wizards fans reaction to the trade:

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=2389471

[Shem]

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[Village Idiot]

I am thrilled about this trade. To get a young and still improving player on a really cheap deal for this price is a boon. He is definitely the best SF we have had in a decade.

I like a lot of the pieces we have but so many of them are third to fifth options on a good team. Unless both Scoot and Sharpe turn into go-to players and all-stars its hard to see this team becoming a contender but then again we are still really early in a rebuild.

[bob2]

I believe Portland is still allowed to trade one of the 2029 picks. If they are smart, they can trade one of the 2 best picks at the 2029 deadline to get more value and then send the worst of the 3 picks to Washington.

[BlazersBroncos]

For some perspective regarding just how amazing the contract Deni is locked into - IQ just got 175M over 5 years. Thats 35M average, which comes to being paid 21.7M more than Deni PER YEAR. And I 100% would take Deni over IQ.

If Deni was on the open market this summer he likely would be looking at 25M AV deals.

[arusinov]

He should be fun to watch and I hope he's a future star.

Deni's best trait? He was 90+ percentile in corner C&S 3s. That alone is a massive boon for Portland. Is he going to be a "star"? Not likely. Is he going to be in an ASG? Not likely. Can he have a Detlef Shrempf type career? He's tracking that way...and that's good for the Blazers.

Using Deni as 3&D just shooting corner 3 would be stalling his progress, and it will be bad for the team too in long run.

By the way Shrempf had 3 ASG appearances. Let's say Shrempf type career and one ASG for Deni would be good

[Runner300]

Deni Avdija is a team player.
If the Team plays team offense and team defense, Deni will excel.
If they play iso, Scott Brooks style, he might get forgotten and lost in the corner.

[Pistol King]

My (long) two cents on Deni:

1. I do think he has All Star potential. As a talent, I view him on the Scottie Barnes tier (minus the long wingspan). But he's entering a streaky situation on a organization that didn't draft him. Had he continued on the Wizards who have drafted him and were entering a full tear down and rebuild the next few seasons, I'd almost guaranteed he'd be developed as an AS player. It took him time to adjust mentally to this league.

The mental maturity is my biggest question mark about him. How would he react to play on a new organization that didn't draft him and might not be as tolerant to passive games of him? would it shake his naivety (he's one of those guys that gave up shots for others with the mindset that's the right way to play, but the Wizards as an org didn't reward him for that and rather rewarded ISO players like Kuzma and Poole) and push him to take the next level or would it make him lose some confidence because the organization that has drafted him has given up on him?

When you'll watch him, you'll see a 6'9" tank, strong player who can bully ball his way to the rim, he's very fast for someone his size, good passer with untapped playmaking potential, impressive versatility defensively, can guard anyone from 1-5 (though it's a bit more challenging for him to guard the quickest types like Tryese Maxey and Ant Edwards and the massive tall centers, all the in between types he can guard as good as you can ask), but as Arusinov said above, two elements he'll have to keep polishing to take his offensive game to the next level is driving left on a much more consistent basis (so far he's very dominant going right), and as I suggested a few times on the Wizards board, I'd like him to add a few counter moves like spin move and body hesitations when he's driving. He's so fast that sometimes he finds himself in very good spots in the paint, when all he has to do is adding 1-2 counter moves to make his drives less predictable, and that's something he still has to improve to become a real 3 level scorer. Last season he started developing a nice step back three, I'd like him to keep polishing it.

TL;DR

Overall, if he'll keep improving his:

1. Mental maturity (aka the idea that sometimes it's beneficial for the team when you actually don't defer and take over games on your shoulders).

2. Keep improving his off the dribble game (that IMO needs at least 2 years of keep developing), a process he has started mainly this past season when given the chance, the sky is the limit.

[Pattycakes]

Look at the contract too boy. This is the best contract in the league right now.

Barely paying him more than rookie lotto pick numbers. Idk how you could be mad at that. I really wanted Knecht but this is a guarantee (Deni looks to have a better all around game as well). Wonderful move, Cronin crushes it out of the park per usual. One day this man will earn some respect

[BlazersBroncos]

Look at the contract too boy. This is the best contract in the league right now.

Barely paying him more than rookie lotto pick numbers. Idk how you could be mad at that. I really wanted Knecht but this is a guarantee (Deni looks to have a better all around game as well). Wonderful move, Cronin crushes it out of the park per usual. One day this man will earn some respect

Dalton might, no almost certainly will, be a better shooter / scorer but I would be FLOORED if he managed to develop anything close to the all around game that Deni brings. Handle, passing, defense - its night and day between the two.