Official Santana Trade thread

[horaceworthy]

Why do people think Ellsbury is anything more than an average major leaguer just because he helped them in the WS? If he has one season with more than 10 home runs or 60 RBI in his career, I'll be shocked. He'll probably provide a nice batting average, stolen bases, and defense. He's hardly any better than Brett Gardner, I can't believe Theo has the Twins rolling over for him.

Ellsbury should be a better than average major leaguer, he's quick asa the dickens, has excellent plate coverage, makes good contact and has a good glove. He should be around a .300/.380/.440 guy that can steal 35+ bases a year with above average defense when all is said and done.

I don't think it's just Ellsbury that the Twins are rolling over for just Ellsbury, I think it's Ellsbury and one of either Lester/Buchholz that the Twins are after. The Red Sox have the advantage of being able to add guys like Jed Lowrie or Lars Anderson to the deal. Hank Steinbrenner doesn't seem to understand that, while a guy like Hughes is very appealing, the Twins have good, young pitching in the system and need to flesh out the position prospects. Personally, I'd take a deal centered around Hughes/Melky/another good prospect over a Ellsbury/Masterson/Lowrie, but if it was Buchholz or Lester instead of Masterson, then it might be another story. That's not on the table at the moment, and I think that's what the Twins are gunning for.

[GopherIt!]

Hughes, Cano, Tabata/Jackson? You're correct about one thing, it is a no brainer for Cashman. No chance the yankees do that sort of deal.

Then there is no chance the Yankees will ever get Johan and that's exactly what Smith has already told them.

The reality is that they are way apart on value. The Yankees have Abreu, Damon and Godzilla in the OF and Giambi at DH and they are worried about losing either Tabata or Jackson in this deal? Not a single decent starting pitcher is available in free agency while loads of second basemen are out there (Iguchi, Giles, Loretta, etc.) and Cano is too valuable?? Thank God the Yankees are stupid.

Hopefully now no trade happens and this makes Pohlad change course and they resign Johan to open the new stadium in 2010.








[/quote]

[nykgeneralmanager]

Hughes, Cano, Tabata/Jackson? You're correct about one thing, it is a no brainer for Cashman. No chance the yankees do that sort of deal.

Then there is no chance the Yankees will ever get Johan and that's exactly what Smith has already told them.

The reality is that they are way apart on value. The Yankees have Abreu, Damon and Godzilla in the OF and Giambi at DH and they are worried about losing either Tabata or Jackson in this deal? Not a single decent starting pitcher is available in free agency while loads of second basemen are out there (Iguchi, Giles, Loretta, etc.) and Cano is too valuable?? Thank God the Yankees are stupid.

Hopefully now no trade happens and this makes Pohlad change course and they resign Johan to open the new stadium in 2010.

[/quote]
Abreu and Giambi are gone after 2008, both Damon and Matsui are gone after 2009. Matsui's days in the OF are already nearly done, and Damon has no business being anywhere but LF. By late 2009/2010, there will be huge needs for both Tabata and Jackson.

Robinson Cano is the second best 2B in baseball, and the ONLY positional player on the Yankees that is under 32 and a superstar. He is untouchable for that reason. You don't dump him and replace him with Iguchi, that would be pathetic.

[daddyfivestar]

Well something better get done soon or Kobe will be gone after this year..oops I mean Johan.

[daddyfivestar]

Smith: I'll make it simple, 2 choices. We want Hughes, Cabrera, Kennedy.
NY: No Kennedy.
Smith: Then offer 2 is Hughes, Cabrera, Horne, Jackson.
NY: No.
Smith: Goodbye.

[GopherIt!]

[quote]Abreu and Giambi are gone after 2008, both Damon and Matsui are gone after 2009. Matsui's days in the OF are already nearly done, and Damon has no business being anywhere but LF. By late 2009/2010, there will be huge needs for both Tabata and Jackson.

Robinson Cano is the second best 2B in baseball, and the ONLY positional player on the Yankees that is under 32 and a superstar. He is untouchable for that reason. You don't dump him and replace him with Iguchi, that would be pathetic.[/quote]


I understand your point in that Giambi is probably a one year guy, Damon is running out of gas, Godzilla needs to DH and Abreu will be 34 after '08. So having a couple of young OF prospects like Jackson and Tabata to take over is important to the Yankees future. Also, along with perhaps Utley, Phillips, Polanco and Roberts, Cano is probably one of the top five second basemen in the game and is just 25 and certainly the best Yankee on the team under 30 right now. Plus, Hughes, Kennedy and Joba all look to have bright futures...

The question becomes do the Yankees want to focus on bringing the best pieces together to win a championship now or retool for future runs or do something in between?

My thinking (if I'm Cashman) is, the best pitcher in baseball is available. I can give up a few young pieces to get him to go with the rest of my predominantly vet team or I can stand pat and hope my prospects pan out (or possibly make other moves for pitching - which is a whole other discussion.) The key is do I want a guy who is a staff ace right now or do I hope one of my promising young arms develops into one? There have been flashes of brilliance but there have also been lots of growing pains. Most pitchers need a couple of years in the bigs to develop. If I play my young guys they may let me down in '08 and possibly '09. They may even let me down in '10 and beyond. Visions of #1 overall draft pick Brien Taylor haunt my owner's memory. We might win 95 games because of our offense but how will our kid pitchers respond starting playoffs games under October pressure in the Bronx? Who do we put on the mound for game one of the ALCS?

I know Abreu is expensive but he is consistent and has some good years left in him. Godzilla is a gamer and could prolong his career moving to the DH spot. Melky can play CF. That leaves either Tabata or Jackson eventually for the other OF spot. I can afford to move one of those guys and still be alright. I really like Cano but the Twins are demanding him as part of the deal. If I give up Cano, I lose will production when I replace him. But the question remains - where else can I find another staff ace??? A lefty would be icing on the cake. Beckett was the key to the Sox title this year. Santana will be the key to our title this year. Santana vs Beckett, that truly is as good as it gets...



The point I have been making in all of my hypothetical discussions is that the Yankees won't be hurting in the near future if they move any of those offensive players and they certainly don't lack the resources to replace them but they are hurting right now for a staff ace. They have the prospects but with prospects comes a degree of risk and uncertainty and the time it takes to develop.

It's funny cause I really dislike the Yankees, so I am hoping that they don't meet the Twins demands. I rip my heart out of my chest and put in cold Steinbrenner blood when I think and write like this.

[daddyfivestar]

If I'm Smith I counter with a 5 player offer:
Pitchers Lester and Masterson
OF Crisp, and minors SS Lowrie and 1B Anderson (future insurance on Morneau).

None of those players outside of Lester are key to the next few years for Boston but would be for the Twins 2010 plan.

[TheFranchise21]

The Yankees are vastly underrating Johan's value. This man is a Cy Young Contender every single year. He is by far the most dominant pitcher in baseball.

Don't give me this crap about he wants a large contract so we should factor that into the trade discussions. The Yankees have no problem giving A-Rod potentially $300+ million to choke in October but are reluctant to give a guy who can win you 2-3 games in a series $150 million? Look at what Beckett did for Boston. Santana is Beckett times two.

The Yankees are foolish to drop out of the bidding for Johan. The Yankees would not want to face Santana/Beckett 1-2 in a series and only be able to counter with Wang/Petitte or Mussina or Joba or whoever.

Johan Santana is a sure thing. With the Yankees offense, he's going to win 20+ games, have an ERA below 3 and strike out 250+.

I want us to trade with the Dodgers. It gets Johan out of the American league. I prefer Kemp over Ellsbury. Kershaw is a lefty and he might be as good a prospect as Hughes or Bucholz. LaRoche fills a need position for us.

[TheFranchise21]

LEN III said in his blog that the exchanging of medical reports between the Twins and Red Sox regarding Santana and Lester could mean a trade is in the final stages. The deal is reportedly, Lester, Crisp, Lowrie, and Masterson. No Ellsbury.

I don't know anything about Lowrie or Masterson. Anyone with insight care to share?

If that is what the deal is, I'd prefer the Yankees deal of Hughes, Cabrera and a mid-level prospect. Lester's health issues concern me. Hughes, to me, projects to be a better player than Lester, and Cabrera is already better and younger than Crisp. Does throwing in Lowrie and Masterson negate the talent gap between Hughes/Cabrera/Anonymous and Lester/Crisp/Lowrie/Masterson?

[SSUBluesman]

I agree. Without Ellsbury the Yankees have a better package. I'm a little disappointed that we can't drive up the price more, and have always been wondering if perhaps there is significant interest from WC teams that is getting buried due to the media power of the Sox/Yanks. Ultimately you want a stud pitching prospect and a couple of other prospects back (at least one of which is a SP). So far neither offer satisfies this.

I too would prefer dealing with the Dodgers, as overall I think they can/will offer more given the young talent they already have on the field/ready for the field for next season. I'm guessing though they'd probably want to focus more on a big bat.

[kg2005]

If we deal to the Red Sox I think I'm going to be sick. Ellsbury and Lester can be good, but they're nothing special. Hughes is special and Melky is already league average and a year younger than Ellsbury. I think the Twins are going for the wrong deal at this point.

[daddyfivestar]

I keep seeing the Dodgers in pitching conversations so why hasn't Smith opened that door up.

I too would like LA for all of the above reasons. Even if LA won't part with Kemp (and Min does not need yet another corner outfielder), they can put together a great package of talent:
A no Kemp package could be 2 pitchers (Billingsley and Kershaw or Elbert) and 2 bats (3B Laroche, SS Hu). I'm sure LA fans would say that's alot of good pitching, but remember no Kemp and no Loney and you GET SANTANA.

[TheAlmightyOne21]

Seriously, why aren't the Dodgers talking about Johan. Ugh, I do NOT want him to go the Red Sox, besides they are giving us such **** offers its not even funny. I personally have come to believe Ellsbury is overrated, what really seperates him from a player like David DeJesus? Also Lester projects as a #3 starter or even worse plus has the health issues.

As much as I hate the Yankees a package of Hughes, Melky and whoever else is better than the Sox offer. Hughes will be a stud and our ace of the team in a couple years, Melky is younger than Ellsbury, terrific defensively and is likable.

My dream trade would be to the Dodgers where we get Kemp, Kershaw and maybe another prospect. Kemp is a masher and plays CF, Kershaw is a 19 lefty pitcher who is a stud.

[dunkonu21]

Almighty ru going to U of Iowa?...I was looking there for Grad School...they have a top notch creative writing program...I wonder if I have the grades or motivation to get there though...

[wigglestrue]

My dream trade would be to the Dodgers where we get Kemp, Kershaw and maybe another prospect. Kemp is a masher and plays CF, Kershaw is a 19 lefty pitcher who is a stud.

Seriously, just about any 4-5 player package the Dodgers could offer would beat Lester, Coco, Lowrie, Masterson, Kalish. Kershaw is easily on the Hughes and Buchholz level talent wise. Kemp > Ellsbury or especially Melky/Coco. I'd have a hard time choosing between Lester and Elbert. LaRoche > Lowrie (but Lowrie plays SS). And on and on, the Dodgers are loaded with a capital L. But the question is, why aren't the Dodgers offering that package?

[daddyfivestar]

Kemp is not a CF long term. He's much like Young in that he could fill in if needed but he's a corner outfielder. The fact that LA is looking for a CF right now tells me that they agree that is not Kemp's true spot.

3 CF guys to look into, thought probably tough to get: Josh Hamilton, Reds, Carlos Gonzalez DBacks, and Pence, Astros.

[TheFranchise21]

Lester does nothing for me. I'd agree with someone else's evaluation that he's only a #3 starter at best.

These big market teams are tying to bully us like they're the only teams we can trade with.

Why do they want to hold onto these potential studs (i.e. Bucholz/Hughes/Lester) when they can get the stud of all studs in Santana? I don't understand it. You can get a sure thing but yet you want are reluctant to let go of your young talent.

I'd compare it to, not trading Oden (pre-injury) for Dwight Howard.

Since I hate the Yankees and the Red Sox are approaching Yankee status, I hope we trade Johan to the National league. I'm so sick of these bandwagon Red Sox fans.

[BigDaddyPR]

Dwight Howard doesnt cost 150 mil, plus Howard's best years are ahead of him, Johan prob has 2 or 3 dominant years as much.... Small market teams dont have the $ to pay what Johans is asking for... thats why you have to trade him right???

Yanks had the best offer, you guys let it slip away, imo big error.. well see what happens...

BTW, im a Yankee fan.

[TheFranchise21]

It was a loose comparison. If the NBA didn't have a salary cap like the MLB, Howard would get $150 million.

We don't have to trade Johan. We can always sign him outright. Granted it would prevent us from locking up Morneau or Cuddyer long term, I believe we can still sign Santana.

Just because we're shopping him doesn't mean we will trade him for much less than he is worth.

I would agree with you, the Yankees had the best offer but it still wasn't good enough. The Yankees NEED Johan, plain and simple. There is no way they can compete without a true #1 to counter Beckett.

[Wade2k6]

Lester does nothing for me. I'd agree with someone else's evaluation that he's only a #3 starter at best.

These big market teams are tying to bully us like they're the only teams we can trade with.

Why do they want to hold onto these potential studs (i.e. Bucholz/Hughes/Lester) when they can get the stud of all studs in Santana? I don't understand it. You can get a sure thing but yet you want are reluctant to let go of your young talent.

I'd compare it to, not trading Oden (pre-injury) for Dwight Howard.

Since I hate the Yankees and the Red Sox are approaching Yankee status, I hope we trade Johan to the National league. I'm so sick of these bandwagon Red Sox fans.

Teams are so reluctant to trade there young studs because of what they can be. Maybe Hughes won't be as good as Santana, but in 3 years when you can start the see the wear and tear on Santana, Hughes is going to be 24 years old, where as Santana will be 32. Not only was it Hughes, but the yankees best OF prospect (Tabata) and Melky.

It would be the same thing as 2 years ago with Liriano. I'm sure every single one of you fans would of called Liriano absouletly untouchable 2 years ago, and even still probably do, even after his surgery. It's the same situation.