Dilly or Dejounte

[Worm Guts]

The Warriors make so much money they just cut CP3 and let Klay walk to save money because they are afraid of the repeater penalties in the new CBA and need to be below the tax line the next 2 years so they can reset the clock on the repeater penalties.

They’re also not a championship caliber team anymore.

[winforlose]

Try about 450 million.
210 for salary, 90 for tax, 150 for operating expenses (which are getting hit hard with inflation and rising interest rates).
The salary cap was set at 136 million last year and that figure is supposed to represent 50% of total revenue.
So the average team had 272 million in projected revenue last year.
We are a mid market and probably took in less than that figure when you consider the overall revenue curve and the bigger chunk the big markets make of the overall pie.

This team has been barely breaking even the past few years running salaries in the 150-165 million range, with no luxury tax payments and probably at least 10-15 mil a year coming in from their share of the luxury tax pie.
You think we can make up the difference of essentially doubling our salary costs by winning.
I do not.
We will have to agree to disagree on that one.

The Warriors make so much money they just cut CP3 and let Klay walk to save money because they are afraid of the repeater penalties in the new CBA and need to be below the tax line the next 2 years so they can reset the clock on the repeater penalties.

Will update with more.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/timberwolves-brand-hot-historic-revenue-152100331.html

Out of date but still relevant for our discussion
https://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-timberwolves/

No specifics but talks about significant increase in revenue last year compared to the year before. It also says their projections are that they will make even more this season.

https://m.startribune.com/timberwolves-brand-is-hot-with-historic-revenue-and-ticket-sales-more-deals-in-the-works/600376654/?clmob=y&c=n


You can talk about market forces and inflation if you want to, but you must also remember that the overall value of the team is rising and that also represents return on investment. The reason we talk about cash rich and poor is because they need to be able to cover the day to day without taking on bad debt. But increased revenue helps with that. As does growing the fan base and getting a new arena (they are trying to do it.)

As for GSW, they were expensive when they needed to be and are trying not be. Look at the list of teams over the 2nd apron. It is the norm for contenders to be expensive, and it has been for quite a while, in no small part because of GSW, LAC, and other big city teams being willing to pay obscene tax to try and buy wins and titles.

[younggunsmn]

The Warriors make so much money they just cut CP3 and let Klay walk to save money because they are afraid of the repeater penalties in the new CBA and need to be below the tax line the next 2 years so they can reset the clock on the repeater penalties.

They’re also not a championship caliber team anymore.

Yeah, I agree with that.
But Curry is also 36 though and in his last few productive years.
You would think they want one more shot with him before he retires.

I'm not ruling out a Klay sign and trade though, something like a double sign and trade where they get say Tobias Harris and the Sixers get Klay could make sense.
But I still think they avoid the luxury tax at all costs.

[younggunsmn]

Winforlose, none of that had any specifics for revenue.

If you can show me something reliable that shows the Wolves can bring in 400 million in revenue in one year I'm all ears.
Until then I'm going to stick with the NBA's own cap projections and go with 270-300 million with the playoff run, and that's being generous to the franchise in the NBA with the 2nd lowest valuation.

[winforlose]

Winforlose, none of that had any specifics for revenue.

If you can show me something reliable that shows the Wolves can bring in 400 million in revenue in one year I'm all ears.
Until then I'm going to stick with the NBA's own cap projections and go with 270-300 million with the playoff run, and that's being generous to the franchise in the NBA with the 2nd lowest valuation.

The second link clearly showed that the 22/23 season was 259 million in revenue. The other two articles establish a significant and historic for the franchise increase in revenue. They also talk about projections for another significant revenue boost based in part on significant ticket sales that have already happened, and you want me to believe that number is 300? Also our valuation has gone up 87% in the last 2 years. Dude you need to read the articles. I think 400 is a low end projection for 24/25.

Quoting from the first article I linked to above “ The team declined to provide specific revenue figures for this past season, but said it's total revenue reached a new high. The organization, whose value has risen 87% from $1.57 billion in 2021 to $2.9 billion, reached this thanks to a flurry of merchandise sales, more expensive regular and postseason tickets sales and sponsorship revenue during that time.


And the Wolves expect to break those records during the upcoming season, said chief operating officer Ryan Tanke. Specifically, he said, they have a huge opportunity to land a new jersey patch sponsor after its three-year jersey patch deal with Aura, an identity protection company in Boston, expired at the end of the season.

The value of NBA jersey patch deals have grown significantly since the league first approved them in 2017. Deals are now landing in the $5 million to $20 million per-year range, with an average of $10 million expected for the 2024-2025 season, according to industry reports.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/timberwolves-brand-hot-historic-revenue-152100331.html

[younggunsmn]

With the league setting the cap, I've updated the capology thread.
Make sure you are sitting down before you click.
205 million in salary plus 103 million in luxury tax.

I did read it and I also looked at the historic graphs.
259 mil in revenue in a year we were a playoff team the first year with Gobert. Right about where I said it would be.
And we'll be missing out on a nice chunk of that revenue next year by not receiving any of the tax pie.

Did you also read the part that showed 259 million in revenue but only 39 million in gate receipts, where you expect all this championship money to come from?
Or that they estimated that 2/3 of the value of the franchise is tied to the NBA and only 1/3 to local market/brand?

The coming spike in the TV deal is definitely going to help revenue, but not enough to sustain the current level of salary.
We're going to lose a lot of money next year and the year after.
And we aren't even paying repeater tax rates yet.

[winforlose]

With the league setting the cap, I've updated the capology thread.
Make sure you are sitting down before you click.
205 million in salary plus 103 million in luxury tax.

I did read it and I also looked at the historic graphs.
259 mil in revenue in a year we were a playoff team the first year with Gobert. Right about where I said it would be.
And we'll be missing out on a nice chunk of that revenue next year by not receiving any of the tax pie.

Did you also read the part that showed 259 million in revenue but only 39 million in gate receipts, where you expect all this championship money to come from?
Or that they estimated that 2/3 of the value of the franchise is tied to the NBA and only 1/3 to local market/brand?

The coming spike in the TV deal is definitely going to help revenue, but not enough to sustain the current level of salary.
We're going to lose a lot of money next year and the year after.
And we aren't even paying repeater tax rates yet.

1. I expect it to be higher than 103 when we are done with free agency.

2. The article/articles talk about a huge increase in fan base, merch sales, significantly higher ticket prices and ticket sales last year. In 23/24 we had two additional playoff series. Better sponsors want to associate with us and that is reflected in the patch deal.

3. For the sake of argument let’s say that ownership operates at a loss of say 50-60. Do you believe that loss will be unacceptable relative to increase valuation for the team? In other words if the team goes up 80 million in value would that be worth the 50-60 that ownership would need to borrow to keep things afloat? Of course this also assumes that new ownership is in fact cash poor which they have publicly and repeatedly claimed they are not.

[younggunsmn]

3. For the sake of argument let’s say that ownership operates at a loss of say 50-60. Do you believe that loss will be unacceptable relative to increase valuation for the team? In other words if the team goes up 80 million in value would that be worth the 50-60 that ownership would need to borrow to keep things afloat? Of course this also assumes that new ownership is in fact cash poor which they have publicly and repeatedly claimed they are not.

It all depends on the ownership and their financial position.
Glen bought the team for 94 million.
A 50% stake for Lore is 750 million dollars.

Glen could easily finance a 50 mil loss by diluting his equity. Lore can't.
He's already diluting it a ton just to make the initial purchase by bringing in other people, he goes below majority shareholder and he loses control of his asset, which is worse than losing money on it.

An asset gaining equity is great and all but financing losses like that is also very painful and maybe not even doable at a certain point.
One thing rich people have in common is that they want their money to keep making money.
Hard to do that if you are piling up debt.

FWIW i don't believe for a second Glen would be green lighting 103 million dollars in luxury taxes if he weren't smack dab in the middle of a fight for control of the team.

[Saltine]

I think revenue was at least $350m last season. It was $288m the season before, add in 11 more playoff games, massive merch sales, ticket price increases, and selling out every game. Next season will be higher, they've already sold over 10,000 season tickets, Ant was number two in the league in social media clicks behind Lebron, according to the NBA; we will get more National TV exposure.

"ESPN VP/Brand Strategy & Content Research Flora Kelly notes that ESPN’s social analytics last week “showed the most popular NBA team for its socials was Minnesota.” "
https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Articles/2024/05/24/minnesota-timberwolves-tv

"According to the NBA, Sunday’s Game 7 between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets averaged 8.41M viewers on TNT/truTV/Max, making it the most watched first or second round playoff game ever on TNT Sports. Sunday also marked the most active day ever across the NBA App and NBA.com."
https://clutchpoints.com/timberwolves-nuggets-game-7-records-nba-tv-ratings-never-seen-before

Also, their cut from the new national TV deal will bring in $230+ million in revenue every year, the old deal only nets $89m a year. Thats another $141m a season, easily going to be pulling down around $500m in revenue going forward with deep playoff runs. So, yes, they can afford a $300m payroll.

[minimus]

Also, next offseason, if we want to trade KAT for a purely draft pick based return to duck back under the luxury tax, adding Dillingham and his rookie scale deal makes that much more realistic, and we could possibly even bring back Naz and NAW and stay under the 2nd apron.

Would also possibly allow us to move on from Gobert in '25 with a core of Ant/KAT/Jaden and Dilly, and possibly even Naz.

IMHO this supertax thing is a one year deal barring a finals appearance, maybe not even then.
IF the AROD/Lore group wins out in the ownership fight they might be stuck with the entire luxury tax bill next June.

Which makes Glen running up a big tax bill while he still has control of the team a kind of under the radar way of poison pilling the sale of the team..

That is an interesting take on a poison pill. So to be clear, if the Wolves don’t win the championship then Glen is the ******* who stuck them with 80% of a large tax bill but a ton of extra profit that far exceeds the 80%. Or in the alternative they do win the championship which further increases their value and they get the credit? Or does that rest entirely with Glen for stopping them? Not to mention the fact that new ownership can always sue Glen for the damages incurred by denying them control in a timely manner. Your argument fails on many levels.

Trading KAT for salary dump is the kind of move you make if your goal is to lose Ant. You don’t go from contending to not contending simply for money and ask a superstar to go along for the ride. I also strongly suspect that a KAT salary dump loses you TC. We are either perennial losers who don’t want to spend what it takes to compete, or we are contenders who spend what it takes. You want proof, look at the teams over the 2nd apron and ask yourself how many of them are in contention talks?

It will be 100% of the bill since they have an option that expires next year (March i think? not 100%) to buy out Glen's last 20%.
SInce they are so cash poor already, a huge tax bill is pretty significant.

There's nothing illegal about Glen running up a big tax bill, and Lore and Arod are not publicly complaining about it.
But it's to Glen's advantage because it makes the purchase of the team more expensive for people he doesnt want to sell to.
I'm just saying Glen being willing to run up a huge luxury tax bill for the coming season isn't 100% him being a good guy.
It's actually quite out of character.

Possibility 1: Glene wins the dispute or legal battle drags out past next june
Glen has cash to pay the big tax bill already from the inital partial sale.
Lore and Arod are forced to finance their share of big financial losses.
Possibility 2: Lore and Arod win the disupte before the tax bill is due.
Lore and Arod are forced to finance even bigger losses shortly after assuming control of team, as do their other investors.

Even if we win the title next year, we will lose tens of millions of dollars.
You grossly overestimate playoff revenue in a market this size. This isnt LA, NY, or SIlicon Valley.

You also grossly overestimate the importance of KAT. A supermax guy should average more than 19 and 9 in the playoffs.

We have surrounded Ant (who is locked up through the end of 2029 by the way) with many other good players, and retooling by trading KAT may be the only way forward financially in the future to keep surrounding Ant with the talent he can compete for a title with. Keeping KAT is going to start costing you other players (like Naz and NAW next offseason).

I know nothing about US, but I find very possible that some decisions will be push back to 2025 offseason. Let me explain:

First and foremost, by the end of 2025 playoffs, we will have following timelines with some results:

- Dillingham development trajectory. We will get proves whether he can be our PG of future
- Naz Reid development trajectory, whether his 6th man award was his ceiling. I really hope that Dillingham can build with Reid a dynamic duo. It will be important because he will be FA
- McDaniels development trajectory, whether he can grow and learn from recent playoff experience
- TSJ will show us his potential and fit as wing
- MIN will re-sign NAW, it TC needs to make a tough decision. So NAW development trajectory as 3&D, will be important because he will be FA. His inconsistent shooting in playoff was a big negative factor, maybe Dillingham/TSJ can share offensive load and take pressure of NAW

Second, we will know who is owner: Glen or Lore/ARod. To me everything that say Glen and Lore/ARod sounds like political advertisement. By the end of 2024-25 season I think TC will have clear idea where new ownership is going to go in terms of roster cost.

Finally, I forgot that before Towns got injured MIN was #1 team in West, I also think that it is easier to change narrative by playing excellent offense, than by playing excellent defense which Towns did by guarding Jokic in playoffs. So receipt here is to get better in offense AND stay healthy. To me Towns lowest point of season was not his injury, but his 62pt game and loss against CHA. It was incredibly dumb and immature. Once he avoids such mistakes, and stays humble, I can easily see his trade value to grow. Meanwhile, all new signed contracts, new rookie players will change landscape of NBA and perception of Towns contract as "one of the worst in NBA". Right now, I dont see any Towns trade idea, that makes MIN better and makes sense for other team, but it might change by the end of the new season

[shrink]

From Marks last week:

CBA impact: There are no restrictions on the Timberwolves prior to July 1. The $189.6 million second apron for next season, however, will get triggered if Minnesota takes back more money in a trade, aggregate contracts, uses its $4 million trade exception or sends out cash. The Wolves are a projected $6.6 million over the second apron. Minnesota also does not have access to the $5.1 million tax midlevel exception and cannot acquire a player in a sign-and-trade.

www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/40286276/nba-free-agency-2024-priorities-player-needs-30-teams-draft-outlook#min

But...he updated it today to now read:

CBA impact: The Timberwolves are over the second apron. They are not allowed to take back more money in a trade, aggregate contracts and send out cash.

So either he was wrong last week, or something changed post-draft (could it be the cap holds for our draft picks?)

I don’t have espn insider, but I think he wasn’t talking about timing, but the hard cap. In fact, his last two sentences demonstrate that those restrictions are in effect, since they don’t have the tMLE.

There are two separate questions going on - what are your payroll restrictions, and can you add more salary (hard cap)? For example, MIN is a second apron team, but I don’t think they have done any transactions that triggers the hard cap, so they can continue to add to their payroll.

Now, these new penalties for the second apron have tried to remove as many ways to add salary as they could think of, but maybe Connelly and his crew will come up with new ways. Remember, the concept of a hard cap came up when the first apron was created, and that CBA obviously didn’t place enough restrictions, as anyone who remembers GSW’s orchestrations to not hard cap themselves will attest. With the second apron’s new restrictions, they made it so it’s tough to add salary, even if you are allowed to. The last CBA only had a handful of ways to hardcap yourself, but now there are far more. I posted Keith Smith’s long list in our capology thread, if you want to see the list.

[Klomp]

I think revenue was at least $350m last season. It was $288m the season before, add in 11 more playoff games, massive merch sales, ticket price increases, and selling out every game. Next season will be higher, they've already sold over 10,000 season tickets, Ant was number two in the league in social media clicks behind Lebron, according to the NBA; we will get more National TV exposure.

"ESPN VP/Brand Strategy & Content Research Flora Kelly notes that ESPN’s social analytics last week “showed the most popular NBA team for its socials was Minnesota.” "
https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Articles/2024/05/24/minnesota-timberwolves-tv

"According to the NBA, Sunday’s Game 7 between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets averaged 8.41M viewers on TNT/truTV/Max, making it the most watched first or second round playoff game ever on TNT Sports. Sunday also marked the most active day ever across the NBA App and NBA.com."
https://clutchpoints.com/timberwolves-nuggets-game-7-records-nba-tv-ratings-never-seen-before

Also, their cut from the new national TV deal will bring in $230+ million in revenue every year, the old deal only nets $89m a year. Thats another $141m a season, easily going to be pulling down around $500m in revenue going forward with deep playoff runs. So, yes, they can afford a $300m payroll.

Also worth noting that drafting Rob Dillingham should only help that. In terms of social media, I think the only guy in this draft class who is close to as popular as him is Bronny James. And now skeptics will try to use that popularity against him, but in terms of improving the "Timberwolves brand" it was a really good draft pick.

[shrink]

Also worth noting that drafting Rob Dillingham should only help that. In terms of social media, I think the only guy in this draft class who is close to as popular as him is Bronny James. And now skeptics will try to use that popularity against him, but in terms of improving the "Timberwolves brand" it was a really good draft pick.

People will tune in to see if Zach Edey can play in the NBA. Edey was easily the most well-known player in college basketball.

[Klomp]

Also worth noting that drafting Rob Dillingham should only help that. In terms of social media, I think the only guy in this draft class who is close to as popular as him is Bronny James. And now skeptics will try to use that popularity against him, but in terms of improving the "Timberwolves brand" it was a really good draft pick.

People will tune in to see if Zach Edey can play in the NBA. Edey was easily the most well-known player in college basketball.

Rob Dillingham has 882,000 followers on Instagram.
Zach Edey has 128,000 followers.

The numbers here are three months old, but it still puts things into perspective, again considering Dillingham's social media presence.

Read on Twitter

[shrink]

Also worth noting that drafting Rob Dillingham should only help that. In terms of social media, I think the only guy in this draft class who is close to as popular as him is Bronny James. And now skeptics will try to use that popularity against him, but in terms of improving the "Timberwolves brand" it was a really good draft pick.

People will tune in to see if Zach Edey can play in the NBA. Edey was easily the most well-known player in college basketball.

Rob Dillingham has 882,000 followers on Instagram.
Zach Edey has 128,000 followers.

The numbers here are three months old, but it still puts things into perspective, again considering Dillingham's social media presence.

Read on Twitter

I’m not disagreeing with your point that it’s helpful for the brand, but Instagram followers are not necessarily money-spending customers. Caitlyn Clark has less than half the followers of Angel Reese, but it’s Clark’s games that are sell outs, and her televised games that draw huge viewership. Reese’s numbers are pedestrian, unless she is playing Clark.

[Klomp]

I’m not disagreeing with your point that it’s helpful for the brand, but Instagram followers does not necessarily equate to money-spending customers. Caitlyn Clark has less than half the followers of Angel Reese, but it’s Clark’s games that are sell outs, and her televised games that draw huge viewership.

We clearly don't need help selling out games.....

But more eyes is always good. Social media marketing can lead to all sorts of new franchise branding and marketing opportunities.

Ant and Rob are both young, energetic personalities with a love for life and ball. Other brands will see that and want to be a part of that.

[Saltine]

Yep, they draw eyeballs, that's what the marketing folks love. I'm curious to see what their going to get when they replace Aura on the jerseys, Rakuten is giving the Warriors $45m a season, the initial deal back in 2017 was $20 million per. The Wolves local viewership was up over %111 from the prior season, they should be able to net a lot more in local revenue on their next deal as well. I can see why they're all smiles at Target center

One of the bigger surprises in RSN performance were the T’Wolves, who saw a 111% jump on Bally Sports North this season. Figures even show that NBA club was taking audience away from the Wild (the NHL club was down 14% in in the Twin Cities this season).

https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Articles/2024/04/25/nba-rsn-viewership-regular-season?publicationSource=sbd&issue=8319ebe4714d45e9b88870186c2f4e47