Bucks News, Trade Ideas, Transactions - PatBev: AJJ has "bright future"

[htr]

If we can send lal Lopez for Vanderbilt with the caveat of taking on D-Ru, I’m all in if the deal expands to us getting Necht (opens up minutes for Bronny anyway)! But Lopez plus for D-Ru Vandy and Necht I’m game for ( Connaughton prob goes with to make it work).

[Frank Nova]

Six of Middleton's seven most used lineups had negative net ratings this season.

Should put an end to that weird narrative, right?

What about the series vs Indiana?

[ReasonablySober]

Six of Middleton's seven most used lineups had negative net ratings this season.

Should put an end to that weird narrative, right?

What about the series vs Indiana?

When Giannis didn't play? Who gives a ****?

[Prez]

The Bucks most used lineup included Dame, Giannis, and Middleton. It had a net rating of +15.1.

However, the Bucks second most used lineup had Dame and Giannis, but no Middleton. It had a net rating of +15.6.

The third most used lineup also had Dame and Giannis, but no Middleton. It had a net rating of +21.7.

Could also look at the entire picture, the full sample size of Giannis/Dame w/ Khris and Giannis/Dame w/o Khris, massive sample sizes for both.

Giannis/Dame without Khris (998 minutes): +3.70 net rating
Giannis/Dame with Khris (758 minutes): +17.2 net rating

Source

But the 8th and 9th used lineups were with Dame/Giannis and no Middleton. Their net ratings:

+61.0
+53.8

Here's the source.

Those aren't net ratings for those lineups, I think you're getting your columns mixed up and looked at assist%. The actual net rating for those two lineups are +24.5 and -7.2. So one very good, one pretty bad, neither super reliable given we're literally talking 54 and 51 minute sample sizes.

[theFireBlanket]

If Jabari can revitilize his career & finally fit, it would be awesome to happen with the Bucks.

[ReasonablySober]

Those aren't net ratings for those lineups, I think you're getting your columns mixed up and looked at assist%. The actual net rating for those two lineups are +24.5 and -7.2. So one very good, one pretty bad, neither super reliable given we're literally talking 54 and 51 minute sample sizes.

You're right, good catch.

Overall point remains that six of Middleton's most used lineups had negative net ratings, and among most used lineups with Dame and Giannis they were actually better without Khris.

[Prez]

Those aren't net ratings for those lineups, I think you're getting your columns mixed up and looked at assist%. The actual net rating for those two lineups are +24.5 and -7.2. So one very good, one pretty bad, neither super reliable given we're literally talking 54 and 51 minute sample sizes.

You're right, good catch.

Overall point remains that six of Middleton's most used lineups had negative net ratings, and among most used lineups with Dame and Giannis they were actually better without Khris.

And another point is that if we don't just exclude the other Giannis/Dame w/o Khris lineups in the same sample size window (e.g. the 4-5 other Dame/Giannis lineups w/o Khris that have a negative net rating) and look at the full picture, we get two huge sample sizes: 1 with the trio that has a dominant net rating, and 1 with only the big 2 that is a bit above neutral net rating.

Also, we can go back and forth on regular season numbers all day. But we roll into the playoffs against any elite teams (particularly elite defenses) with Giannis/Dame as the only high level initiators and a bunch of role players around them, we're going to find out pretty quickly how NOT superfluous a scoring/playmaking 3rd option is.

[Prez]

I guess I fundamentally disagree with idea that Middleton is a superfluous player.

He’s not superfluous. The issue is that he’s up there in years and injury issues AND this team’s depth after our big three is horrific. There are other factors on the table in the analysis.

You mention the Dame/Giannis pairing not working well in year one. If Dame were to bring back a haul, have no issue moving him and keeping Midds.

I mean we don't disagree on any of this. If the argument is that there are injury concerns with him and we'd prefer to get younger/more athletic (and they're actually good at basketball), fine by me.

[machu46]

The leading scorers in the playoffs for the Celtics scored:

25.0 ppg
23.9 ppg
16.7 ppg
13.2 ppg

Do you think we live in a world where Giannis only scores 25 ppg in the NBA playoffs?

If anything, the third option would score even less. Look to Dallas, where the leading scorers were:

28.9 ppg
22.1 ppg
13.0 ppg

Middleton's scoring is all he's good for, and on a contending team it's absolutely not needed.

you're becoming david dunn

the main reason why khris is such a good fit is because he can very easily put up 18-22 PPG as a 3rd option without interrupting the flow of the offence *if he's healthy*

Not if Giannis and Dame are healthy and playing. There's no chance he hell he's averaging that amount.

And the difference between me and DD is that I know Khris is still very good. I'm not saying this as a slight on Khris. If he was still a second option I don't doubt he'd score a very efficient 22 points a night.

But that's not the team the Bucks have. He's a third option who, at most, will score in the mid-teens. It's just simple math and the entire history of the league. The question is whether Khris is more valuable as a third option scoring 15 a night, or as a trade piece that can bring back significant value where the Bucks don't have it.

Middleton's scoring is all he's good for

If you knew Khris was still very good and weren't slighting him, you wouldn't say his scoring is the only thing he's good for. That and the idea that he'd only score 12 points per game in the playoffs next to Giannis and Lillard is where the disconnect is.

I don't disagree that we could build a contender around Giannis and Lillard being our only all-star caliber players but I think it's probably easier to build one around Giannis, Lillard, and Middleton. Their games complement each other beautifully and make us very difficult to guard, which is why we were nearly unbeatable when the three of them shared the floor this year despite them rarely being healthy even when they did all play.

As always, it all depends on what we can get in trades for our guys, but I tend to think swapping Khris out for (insert limited offensive player that can defend better) is making things harder on ourselves.

Teams that *might* overpay for Middleton taking into account last two days of signings

-Kings (Keegan and other assets)
-Magic (Suggs)
-Cleveland (something around Jarrett Allen)
-Pelicans (Picks we move elsewhere or Ingram)
-Rockets (Jabari Smith)
-Warriors (pry out Kuminga and/or Podz)

In order of interest from least to most:

Golden State - Don't like Kuminga in general and don't think he's a good fit.

Cleveland - Obviously would have to depend on what you turn Brook/Bobby into, but doesn't make much sense to me on the surface, and I'm not even one of the people that insists on everyone being able to shoot around Giannis.

Houston - Would once again depend on what you turn Brook/Bobby into. Not really convinced Jabari is a winning player, and in the very least, swapping Middleton for him makes us a lot more limited in terms of shot creation.

The last three are fairly interesting, though the Kings and Magic ones would obviously require more than just Keegan/Suggs from a salary/value perspective.

Orlando - I worry a little this past season was a one hit wonder with his 3 point shooting and he doesn't do much offensively aside from that. He'd obviously be a nice upgrade defensively.

Sacramento - I like Keegan Murray but much like Jabari Smith, it makes us a lot more limited in terms of shot creation. Almost literally every shot he took this past season was set up by Fox or Sabonis. I'm more hopeful that he'll grow his offensive game relative to Jabari but it's still a significant concern as someone that we're trading Middleton for. The Kings have other pieces that would definitely interest me in addition to Murray though, so I put this hypothetical option above the Houston one.

New Orleans - I'm not sure Ingram actually makes us better, but he's a fairly similar player to Middleton while being younger. Middleton's certainly a better/more willing 3 point shooter. They both create well for themselves and for others while not being a primary creator type. Both are okay defensively. Both have injury issues. I don't know. Would be a strange trade if it happened.

[LuessiT]

Orlando is easy to see for me. No apron restrictions, enough filler and Suggs fills a need. Though we’d have to be ready to pay Suggs 30m after one good season. I‘d probably be down though.

Sac is tougher. I have Keegan worth more than Middleton already so would be inclined to swap the two. Sac doesn’t have good filler (Barnes is valuable to them) so I just don’t think there’s something there. If there was though again I’d be down. I’m also more comfortable paying Keegan than I am Suggs.

Jabari is interesting to me. If we can nab some good filler (I do have a soft spot for Brooks) there could be something there.

[emunney]

Six of Middleton's seven most used lineups had negative net ratings this season.

Should put an end to that weird narrative, right?

What weird narrative? That Khris is good or that he fits amazing between Giannis and Dame?

Dame-Beas-Khris-Jae-Brook is a hilarious lineup. Small, but also slow. Great work.

[nagawicka]

The leading scorers in the playoffs for the Celtics scored:

25.0 ppg
23.9 ppg
16.7 ppg
13.2 ppg

Do you think we live in a world where Giannis only scores 25 ppg in the NBA playoffs?

If anything, the third option would score even less. Look to Dallas, where the leading scorers were:

28.9 ppg
22.1 ppg
13.0 ppg

Middleton's scoring is all he's good for, and on a contending team it's absolutely not needed.

you're becoming david dunn

the main reason why khris is such a good fit is because he can very easily put up 18-22 PPG as a 3rd option without interrupting the flow of the offence *if he's healthy*

Not if Giannis and Dame are healthy and playing. There's no chance he hell he's averaging that amount.

And the difference between me and DD is that I know Khris is still very good. I'm not saying this as a slight on Khris. If he was still a second option I don't doubt he'd score a very efficient 22 points a night.

But that's not the team the Bucks have. He's a third option who, at most, will score in the mid-teens. It's just simple math and the entire history of the league. The question is whether Khris is more valuable as a third option scoring 15 a night, or as a trade piece that can bring back significant value where the Bucks don't have it.

It doesn't matter how many points Khris scores per game, if the Bucks can't deliver a flatter point distribution with 4, 5, 6 players in double digits then they'll be a less resilient team, less likely to overcome unexpected injuries/off-nights/egos, and less able to meet predictable challenges like oh, say, rival squads with a distributed attack that balances multiple scorers. Like the Celtics.

[Baddy Chuck]

if the Bucks can't deliver a flatter point distribution with 4, 5, 6 players in double digits then they'll be a less resilient team, less likely to overcome unexpected injuries/off-nights/egos, and less able to meet predictable challenges like oh, say, rival squads with a distributed attack that balances multiple scorers. Like the Celtics.

4 - 13.8 - 15.2
5 - 12.5 - 12.5
6 - 11.3 - 9.6
7 - 6.2 - 9.0

This is the point distribution we're worried about? 2.5 points from the 4th-7th scorers? With one of our 7 being an absolute dud in Crowder? The Celtics third leading scorer was also a 24.4/36 dude when healthy, you don't get that trading Khris for pieces either.

[JayMKE]

Kick the tires on a Dame trade if it can accomplish financial flexibility/young assets/win now pieces.

[higharc]

I don't know if anyone mentioned this, but TA has requested a trade as he feels his turn with the Bucks came to full circle.
Just read it in Greek sports news.

Not joking.

[Turk Nowitzki]

I don't know if anyone mentioned this, but TA has requested a trade as he feels his turn with the Bucks came to full circle.
Just read it in Greek sports news.

Not joking.

Thanasis? Maybe something is getting lost in translation but he doesn't need to request anything, he's a free agent.

[soxperry]

As much as i love the Wright and Umude signings, we still do not have a starting 2. Ive posted about this before but the Kings should be number one on our speed dial, as they have Huerter, Monk, and Ellis. Would love to grab Ellis as he already appears to be an elite defender.

I dont think we will take another defensive liability after Beasley, but both Sexton and Bogdanavic seem like they should be available. They are each superior to Beas offensively so it would not be quite the same thing.

Theres also the possibility that we stand pat for now and see if one of the youngsters can step up.

[ShootingtheJ]

Reeves and Vanderbilt for Lopez and Livingston works in trade checker…. realistic option?

Next question is where do you send Reeves. He's good, but an awful fit for us because of his defense. He could net us a great addition in a 3 way trade.

However, I think the Lakers will be less inclined to trade him because they didn't land Klay.

[Baddy Chuck]

Read on Twitter

Feel like I rather just give that spot to Gabriel or like Jay Huff or something. Wiseman thrown around here might not be the worst thing either.

[soxperry]

Read on Twitter

Feel like I rather just give that spot to Gabriel or like Jay Huff or something. Wiseman thrown around here might not be the worst thing either.

So thats interesting.

We basically never have a backup C unless its Robin.

Tea Leaves