Spurs or Warriors: Best deal for Markkanen?

[Chinook]

The Spurs uniquely can create a scenario where they can extend Mark in January if they keep the cap space open to have a renegotiation. I don't believe that possibility to warrant the Spurs paying something closer to Bridges' price than Siakam's.

I guess teams that feel it's worth the risk can jump the gun, trade for Lauri at the price Ainge wants and then renogotiate with cap space - I can see OKC and the Spurs be enticing to Lauri. If there's no deal appealing to Ainge, he can just renegotiate with Lauri and then look to trade him at the deadline - I'm sure there'll be a bidding war. As for price, I don't see Lauri at Bridges' price cause Bridges' wasn't worth that price, it was the Knicks outbidding Ainge in the first place - f**** Ainge lol. Personally, I'd take Bridges over Lauri anyways.

All this smoke, I'm wondering if this is media driven or Utah feeding the water cause they're worried that Lauri wont renegotiate with them.

Renegotiating resets the three-year extension prohibition, so they can't renegotiate and then later extend him. From the actual CBA:

(2) (i) A Player Contract that has been renegotiated to provide for
an increase in Salary in any Salary Cap Year covered by the
Contract of more than ten percent (10%) of the player’s
Salary prior to the Renegotiation, may not subsequently be
extended until the third anniversary of the signing of such
Renegotiation.

So the Jazz have to do the renegotiation and extension together, which means they have to wait until August, which means they can't trade him at the deadline. They can renegotiate and extend him this summer to trade him next summer, but Mark has to agree to that and might not be willing to. Because everything has to wait until August, we don't actually know where he and the Jazz stand. All we "know" is that a bunch of teams are apparently trying to move him while the Jazz are holding firm.

[SkyHook]

The Spurs uniquely can create a scenario where they can extend Mark in January if they keep the cap space open to have a renegotiation. I don't believe that possibility to warrant the Spurs paying something closer to Bridges' price than Siakam's.

I guess teams that feel it's worth the risk can jump the gun, trade for Lauri at the price Ainge wants and then renogotiate with cap space - I can see OKC and the Spurs be enticing to Lauri. If there's no deal appealing to Ainge, he can just renegotiate with Lauri and then look to trade him at the deadline - I'm sure there'll be a bidding war. As for price, I don't see Lauri at Bridges' price cause Bridges' wasn't worth that price, it was the Knicks outbidding Ainge in the first place - f**** Ainge lol. Personally, I'd take Bridges over Lauri anyways.

All this smoke, I'm wondering if this is media driven or Utah feeding the water cause they're worried that Lauri wont renegotiate with them.

Renegotiating resets the three-year extension prohibition, so they can't renegotiate and then later extend him. From the actual CBA:

(2) (i) A Player Contract that has been renegotiated to provide for
an increase in Salary in any Salary Cap Year covered by the
Contract of more than ten percent (10%) of the player’s
Salary prior to the Renegotiation, may not subsequently be
extended until the third anniversary of the signing of such
Renegotiation.

So the Jazz have to do the renegotiation and extension together, which means they have to wait until August, which means they can't trade him at the deadline. They can renegotiate and extend him this summer to trade him next summer, but Mark has to agree to that and might not be willing to. Because everything has to wait until August, we don't actually know where he and the Jazz stand. All we "know" is that a bunch of teams are apparently trying to move him while the Jazz are holding firm.

Except that his eligibility date to R+E is 8/6 because the league calendar was weird in 2021 due to the Covid delays and it's now been adjusted accordingly. Makes him trade eligible just before the deadline.

[Blame Rasho]

I wouldn't offer a kings ransom for him considering he might hit FA. But I'd offer something like Keldon or Collins (whomever they prefer) + SA unprotected 2025 1st, CHI's top-10 protected 2025 1st, CHA lotto-protected 2025 1st, ATL unprotected 2027 1st, SA unprotected swap in 2027, and MIN's 2031 unprotected 1st. And zero chance I am including ATL's 2025 1st in any deal for Lauri

Well that is a kings random to me. Rookie contracts when they are hits are more valuable than ever.

I am of the opinion you only trade multiple picks for proven difference makers and not guys who are just okay.

[Chinook]

I guess teams that feel it's worth the risk can jump the gun, trade for Lauri at the price Ainge wants and then renogotiate with cap space - I can see OKC and the Spurs be enticing to Lauri. If there's no deal appealing to Ainge, he can just renegotiate with Lauri and then look to trade him at the deadline - I'm sure there'll be a bidding war. As for price, I don't see Lauri at Bridges' price cause Bridges' wasn't worth that price, it was the Knicks outbidding Ainge in the first place - f**** Ainge lol. Personally, I'd take Bridges over Lauri anyways.

All this smoke, I'm wondering if this is media driven or Utah feeding the water cause they're worried that Lauri wont renegotiate with them.

Renegotiating resets the three-year extension prohibition, so they can't renegotiate and then later extend him. From the actual CBA:

(2) (i) A Player Contract that has been renegotiated to provide for
an increase in Salary in any Salary Cap Year covered by the
Contract of more than ten percent (10%) of the player’s
Salary prior to the Renegotiation, may not subsequently be
extended until the third anniversary of the signing of such
Renegotiation.

So the Jazz have to do the renegotiation and extension together, which means they have to wait until August, which means they can't trade him at the deadline. They can renegotiate and extend him this summer to trade him next summer, but Mark has to agree to that and might not be willing to. Because everything has to wait until August, we don't actually know where he and the Jazz stand. All we "know" is that a bunch of teams are apparently trying to move him while the Jazz are holding firm.

Except that his eligibility date to R+E is 8/6 because the league calendar was weird in 2021 due to the Covid delays and it's now been adjusted accordingly. Makes him trade eligible just before the deadline.

Did that ever get confirmed? I know a lot of Utah local sources ran with that idea, but the underlying logic seemed more like wishful thinking. Like the league doesn't normally adjust extension dates to the beginning of the moratorium. Why did they do so in 2021? Mark's contract was signed three weeks after the official start to year. Was every contract signed that summer changed to 08/06/2021? Why not just pull everything back a month to 07/28/2021?

Smitty has Mark's extension date as 07/06/2024. Does he have that confirmed? Keith's a smart guy who's on top of his stuff. But if that's true that Mark and Mitchell have the same extension eligibility date, why are we hearing about Don agreeing to a deal now but not a peep about Lauri?

So yeah, if you have something with the 08/06/2024 date that is coming from the league, I'd appreciate that, and I imagine Smitty would appreciate that too. Otherwise, yes, it do believe I was wrong. But the lack of any announced movement on negotiations is telling if 07/06 is truly the date.

[docholliday99]

The Spurs uniquely can create a scenario where they can extend Mark in January if they keep the cap space open to have a renegotiation. I don't believe that possibility to warrant the Spurs paying something closer to Bridges' price than Siakam's.

I guess teams that feel it's worth the risk can jump the gun, trade for Lauri at the price Ainge wants and then renogotiate with cap space - I can see OKC and the Spurs be enticing to Lauri. If there's no deal appealing to Ainge, he can just renegotiate with Lauri and then look to trade him at the deadline - I'm sure there'll be a bidding war. As for price, I don't see Lauri at Bridges' price cause Bridges' wasn't worth that price, it was the Knicks outbidding Ainge in the first place - f**** Ainge lol. Personally, I'd take Bridges over Lauri anyways.

All this smoke, I'm wondering if this is media driven or Utah feeding the water cause they're worried that Lauri wont renegotiate with them.

Renegotiating resets the three-year extension prohibition, so they can't renegotiate and then later extend him. From the actual CBA:

(2) (i) A Player Contract that has been renegotiated to provide for
an increase in Salary in any Salary Cap Year covered by the
Contract of more than ten percent (10%) of the player’s
Salary prior to the Renegotiation, may not subsequently be
extended until the third anniversary of the signing of such
Renegotiation.

So the Jazz have to do the renegotiation and extension together, which means they have to wait until August, which means they can't trade him at the deadline. They can renegotiate and extend him this summer to trade him next summer, but Mark has to agree to that and might not be willing to. Because everything has to wait until August, we don't actually know where he and the Jazz stand. All we "know" is that a bunch of teams are apparently trying to move him while the Jazz are holding firm.

If it was early August, there may have been time to squeeze in the 6 mos but I got off my armchair and found that he signed Aug 27th, 2021 (I thought it was earlier).

I can see your point about Spurs' offer, one just has to compare the return from the PG trade to OKC vs the PG trade to the Clippers when he had term (despite the KL factor). Spurs just need to wait for everyone else's offer before deciding what to do, since they can pretty much beat anyone's offer - no need to outbid themselves. In this scenario though, one would have to factor him possibly leaving (though I'd assume people would talk to people).

One thing I respect about LM, he hasn't had his "people" say anything publicly like Pascal did - not that I've read anyways.

[docholliday99]

Renegotiating resets the three-year extension prohibition, so they can't renegotiate and then later extend him. From the actual CBA:



So the Jazz have to do the renegotiation and extension together, which means they have to wait until August, which means they can't trade him at the deadline. They can renegotiate and extend him this summer to trade him next summer, but Mark has to agree to that and might not be willing to. Because everything has to wait until August, we don't actually know where he and the Jazz stand. All we "know" is that a bunch of teams are apparently trying to move him while the Jazz are holding firm.

Except that his eligibility date to R+E is 8/6 because the league calendar was weird in 2021 due to the Covid delays and it's now been adjusted accordingly. Makes him trade eligible just before the deadline.

Did that ever get confirmed? I know a lot of Utah local sources ran with that idea, but the underlying logic seemed more like wishful thinking. Like the league doesn't normally adjust extension dates to the beginning of the moratorium. Why did they do so in 2021? Mark's contract was signed three weeks after the official start to year. Was every contract signed that summer changed to 08/06/2021? Why not just pull everything back a month to 07/28/2021?

Smitty has Mark's extension date as 07/06/2024. Does he have that confirmed? Keith's a smart guy who's on top of his stuff. But if that's true that Mark and Mitchell have the same extension eligibility date, why are we hearing about Don agreeing to a deal now but not a peep about Lauri?

So yeah, if you have something with the 08/06/2024 date that is coming from the league, I'd appreciate that, and I imagine Smitty would appreciate that too. Otherwise, yes, it do believe I was wrong. But the lack of any announced movement on negotiations is telling if 07/06 is truly the date.

Isn't the extension date not the same as the date to renegotiate and extend? One's July 6th and the other is Aug 27, the 3rd anniversary of the day LM signed his contract in Chicago.

This seems to be the most informed I've read, from Reddit..

It's going to be extremely hard to move Lauri Markkanen this year due to CBA issues so it will be extremely hard to tank.
Lauri Markkanen is looking for a four year max extension. However, the CBA only allows raises in extensions to be 40% over the last year of his contract. The salary cap in 2025-2026 is likely to be $155.1m so a max for a less than 10 year player is $46.53m starting in year 1. Therefore, a player must be making $33.24m or more in 2024-2025 to sign a max extension for 2025-2026.

Lauri Markkanen is set to make 18.044m next year. However, after Lauri's contract hits three years old, whoever has him under contract can renegotiate and extend him. This involves the team using their own salary cap space to give a raise to a player for their current year and then extending him for future years. The Jazz did this last year with Clarkson though for different reasons. To renegotiate and extend Markkanen, the Jazz or whoever traded for Markkanen must give him a $15.2m raise this year, using their cap space.

Now we get into the timing issues caused by the CBA. If you trade for a player, you can't extend them for at least six months. If you extend a player, you cannot trade them for at least six months. You must hit the salary floor by mid October. Lauri signed his current contract August 27th 2021. The trade deadline is early February 2025.

The salary floor is 90% of the cap, meaning that a team can only pass mid October with $14.1m in cap space or less.

So let's go through a few scenarios here.

Jazz renegotiate and extend Markkanen. In this scenario, the Jazz cannot have renegotiated and extended him until August 27th, 2024 or later. This means they could not trade Markkanen until February 27th, 2025... Which is after the trade deadline.

The Jazz do not renegotiate and extend Markkanen and try to trade him to a team with cap space that promises to renegotiate and extend him. In this scenario, a team could hypothetically offer Markkanen a $14.1m raise this year and a near max contract. Over the five years, this would lose Markkanen around $8m compared to a renegotiation and max so Markkanen's agent would realistically try to harm trade talks unless an absolutely perfect situation came up. And what teams could realistically hold this much cap space available for renegotiation and extending? It's mostly just the Pistons and Spurs so Markkanen's agent would probably tell the Pistons that he would rather test free agency because the Pistons are so awful (and this is actually pretty reasonable for a player to say as well, lol). This narrows Markkanen's market and reduces his trade value.

The Jazz do not renegotiate and extend Markkanen and try to trade him to a team that will not renegotiate and extend him. This move would cost Markkanen at least $15m and would cause a huge amount of risk for Markkanen if he got injured during next season so he and agent would try to sabotage any trade talks to non ideal situations by implying that he could leave in free agency. I would say this narrows down his market to basically just title contenders where he would fit well and get a good amount of shots. If you narrow that down to teams that have assets, you're basically just left with the 76ers, Thunder... Maybe the Lakers? Maybe the Heat if they trade Butler? Maybe the Nets if Mitchell demands a second star player to come with him? And all of these teams will likely be more wary of giving up 4+ picks still because Lauri won't be able to extend with them.

So we're looking at a very narrow trade market and that lowers the odds dramatically that a team will want to roll the dice and go all-in with Markkanen, making the odds of trading him much lower.

Sexton and Kessler also have depressed trade value (Sexton due to his seasons before this not being great and Kessler for having a disappointing second year) so they're unlikely to be traded as well though they could be traded at the deadline if they have a great year. These are our three best players so it's hard to see any tanking moves being plausible.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UtahJazz/comments/1cqyxyy/its_going_to_be_extremely_hard_to_move_lauri/

[tcheco]

I wasn't expecting the Spurs to go for win now moves already, just a little improvement but next year to make moves.

CP3/Tre/Castle
Vassel/Castle/Branham
Lauri/Champagnie
Sochan/Lauri
Wemby/Collins

This has potencial playoffs, probably one good player short to getting out of the first round(if Castle does not contribute much)

fun fun

[Warriorfan]

Best deal for GS is no deal.
SA should be more aggressive when it's generational talent is paid less. Wemby may be a 70mil supermax in the future