Luka Dončić Discussion - Year 7

[Dirk2Doncic]

The most important Qs in Nba are 1st. Winning Q1 is statistically the most important for the win. Luka normally plays around 6 minutes in Q4, so it's kinda impossible to dominate, if you're not playing half of the Q.

What has Dirk won with 25 years? The same question goes for MJ, LeBron...

Luka can of course play better, but he honestly never had a roster capable of winning the ring, so it's kinda strange to bring that against him.

Numbers often don't tell the real story. We can agree to disagree.

I'm not down on Luka. He's an amazing player. He still has room for improvement which is right where he should be at this point in his career.

Amazing we went from Dirk to Luka. I'm ecstatic we have Luka and hopeful we will see championships with him.

Luka can continue to improve his shooting a little (overall efficiency including shot selection at times), improve his team defense, improve in keeping his head in the game (this affected his play and therefore his team in a couple games in the finals which can never happen on that stage), and improve his decision making even if only a little.

Being a master at reading the variables for individual possessions is not equal to being a master at reading the the overall game. There is a difference. Magic Johnson was a master of both. Sometimes Magic knew he needed to get someone going vs simply reading the variables for a particular possession. I'm not saying Luka never does this. I'm saying there is still room for growth, IMO.

There is a big difference between looking to get yourself going and looking to get your teammates going. We were incredibly fortunate with Kyrie and now with slowed down Clay (I'm fearful we might find out what the Warriors might know). I do think there is truth to the idea that some guys would get tired of standing around watching.

"Don't try to win the game in the 1st quarter" - Greg Popovich

Mavs were the best last 5 minutes in the 4th quarter team in the league in 2011. We had the best closer on the planet that post season and we were the best as a team at closing games. Dirk was at his absolute closing peak and he had worked hard to become a good team defender. All part of why we were champions.

Generally speaking...

Getting others involved early and dominating the 4th > taking a ton of shots in the 1st putting up 1st quarter numbers but fading in the 4th.

Having said all that... I'll taking a championship any way we can get it.

Another thought...

Boston uses KP the way I wanted the Mavs to use him. When KP is guarded by a small(ish) player, they feed him the ball in the mid range and he shoots over them like a chair. I suspect this was driven by Mavs "analytics" and for some odd reason Carlisle bought into it. (KP is probably a little physically stronger since the time we had him... but still... )

Final thought...

This post season was a GREAT ride. It was a total blast until the finals. Luka was a monster until the finals. As great as he is and even with all the numbers, there is another level he can get to and I'm hopeful that he gets there.

Q1 is enormously important. Easy to understand why good start gives you better chances of winning. Winning Q1 gives you better chances to win than winning any other Q. That's the fact not some guessing.

Luka's playing time normally goes like, he plays more or less entire Q1 and Q3 and half of Q2 and Q4. It's obvious that he and Kyrie have roles divided by them. Mavs were the best clutch team in the league, so I guess they were doing something right.

Magic was drafted in a great team. That's not normal situation. He had more or less entire career top roster on disposal. Difficult to say that for Luka's Mavs. I would say that's easier to get Jabbar going than Dwight Powell.

Yes he can do some things better, but basketball is a team sport. That's why MJ, who was much better and more complete player than Luka, needed the right teammates and has won his first ring being 28 years old. Mavs had no business being in Finals this year and unfortunately that showed, Celtics being far better team.

There is nothing magical about Q1. It's 1% -2%. Better teams are going to win Q1 more than lesser teams. Q4 numbers get skewed with outcomes not in doubt.

Q1 high shot volume with many possessions to make up ground is no to low pressure. Crunch time high pressure possessions have little room for error.

I don't want Luka to get Dwight Powell going. I do however, cringe at times when on the first 2 possessions of a game Luke jacks from distance very early in the shot clock without a wide open look (I know he's good with a hand in his face stepping back left but still...) and without doing anything to run the offense and make the defense work, without doing anything to try to collapse the defense and get a teammate a wide open look.

I won't be surprised if the Mavs ever do win a championship with Luka, that we see a different allocation of his minutes.

Next season we will have 2 players on the floor to start games who are better shooters than Luka. I'll be interested to see if there are any changes in Luka's game.

[41Dirk41]

What Luka did in the first quarters of G7 against the Suns or G5 against the Wolves won the game.

When Luka early sets the tone often the game is over.

[Maverick41]

Ideally we get Luka to a usage of 30-33% usage which is Lebron's usage in his championship years. If we can get it to around there, I think Luka would then have enough stamina to be more consistent on the defensive end. I think Luka has proven he can be pretty solid on D when he wants to. It's about consistency.

Note it's important to also hold coaching accountable. Kidd needs to open the offensive playbook. The offense can't always be "let Kyrie or Luka cook and hope for the best."

[41Dirk41]

Ideally we get Luka to a usage of 30-33% usage which is Lebron's usage in his championship years. If we can get it to around there, I think Luka would then have enough stamina to be more consistent on the defensive end. I think Luka has proven he can be pretty solid on D when he wants to. It's about consistency.

Note it's important to also hold coaching accountable. Kidd needs to open the offensive playbook. The offense can't always be "let Kyrie or Luka cook and hope for the best."

We badly need a couple of good offensive assistent coaches.

[Mavrelous]

Mavs now have a roster where the supporting cast can be trusted with the ball, attack closeouts, attack the weakside off the dribble, and pass, DFS, Bullock, Powell and Maxi, couldn't be trusted with this, Green didn't get enough opportunities for some reason, PJ, Klay, Marshal and Grimes, can be trusted to do basic stuff, so for the RS, reducing the usage should be a goal.

[Bob8]

Numbers often don't tell the real story. We can agree to disagree.

I'm not down on Luka. He's an amazing player. He still has room for improvement which is right where he should be at this point in his career.

Amazing we went from Dirk to Luka. I'm ecstatic we have Luka and hopeful we will see championships with him.

Luka can continue to improve his shooting a little (overall efficiency including shot selection at times), improve his team defense, improve in keeping his head in the game (this affected his play and therefore his team in a couple games in the finals which can never happen on that stage), and improve his decision making even if only a little.

Being a master at reading the variables for individual possessions is not equal to being a master at reading the the overall game. There is a difference. Magic Johnson was a master of both. Sometimes Magic knew he needed to get someone going vs simply reading the variables for a particular possession. I'm not saying Luka never does this. I'm saying there is still room for growth, IMO.

There is a big difference between looking to get yourself going and looking to get your teammates going. We were incredibly fortunate with Kyrie and now with slowed down Clay (I'm fearful we might find out what the Warriors might know). I do think there is truth to the idea that some guys would get tired of standing around watching.

"Don't try to win the game in the 1st quarter" - Greg Popovich

Mavs were the best last 5 minutes in the 4th quarter team in the league in 2011. We had the best closer on the planet that post season and we were the best as a team at closing games. Dirk was at his absolute closing peak and he had worked hard to become a good team defender. All part of why we were champions.

Generally speaking...

Getting others involved early and dominating the 4th > taking a ton of shots in the 1st putting up 1st quarter numbers but fading in the 4th.

Having said all that... I'll taking a championship any way we can get it.

Another thought...

Boston uses KP the way I wanted the Mavs to use him. When KP is guarded by a small(ish) player, they feed him the ball in the mid range and he shoots over them like a chair. I suspect this was driven by Mavs "analytics" and for some odd reason Carlisle bought into it. (KP is probably a little physically stronger since the time we had him... but still... )

Final thought...

This post season was a GREAT ride. It was a total blast until the finals. Luka was a monster until the finals. As great as he is and even with all the numbers, there is another level he can get to and I'm hopeful that he gets there.

Q1 is enormously important. Easy to understand why good start gives you better chances of winning. Winning Q1 gives you better chances to win than winning any other Q. That's the fact not some guessing.

Luka's playing time normally goes like, he plays more or less entire Q1 and Q3 and half of Q2 and Q4. It's obvious that he and Kyrie have roles divided by them. Mavs were the best clutch team in the league, so I guess they were doing something right.

Magic was drafted in a great team. That's not normal situation. He had more or less entire career top roster on disposal. Difficult to say that for Luka's Mavs. I would say that's easier to get Jabbar going than Dwight Powell.

Yes he can do some things better, but basketball is a team sport. That's why MJ, who was much better and more complete player than Luka, needed the right teammates and has won his first ring being 28 years old. Mavs had no business being in Finals this year and unfortunately that showed, Celtics being far better team.

There is nothing magical about Q1. It's 1% -2%. Better teams are going to win Q1 more than lesser teams. Q4 numbers get skewed with outcomes not in doubt.

Q1 high shot volume with many possessions to make up ground is no to low pressure. Crunch time high pressure possessions have little room for error.

I don't want Luka to get Dwight Powell going. I do however, cringe at times when on the first 2 possessions of a game Luke jacks from distance very early in the shot clock without a wide open look (I know he's good with a hand in his face stepping back left but still...) and without doing anything to run the offense and make the defense work, without doing anything to try to collapse the defense and get a teammate a wide open look.

I won't be surprised if the Mavs ever do win a championship with Luka, that we see a different allocation of his minutes.

Next season we will have 2 players on the floor to start games who are better shooters than Luka. I'll be interested to see if there are any changes in Luka's game.

There's a difference between % and % points.

If you watch Luka's career, it should be obvious to you that Luka needs those early shots to get going. I don't have stats, but I'm pretty sure that good start is essential for him. On the other hand you have Kyrie, who's Mr. 4 Q his entire career. I would say that's great fit.

There is another reason, why you want Luka to go hot in Q1. Reaction of opponents in D. Luka goes hot, D has to react, meaning more open shots for others. Great example was game 5 of Wolves series.

Allocation of Luka's minutes. Kidd has a simple plan, play with 1 of Luka/Kyrie all the time on the court. They start together, Kyrie goes out, Luka goes out. They could change order, but there're 2 reasons, why Kyrie going out first makes sense. I already explained first, Luka needs more to get going in Q1, second is Luka's bigger usage and consequently being more tired in the end. You want to give Luka some rest before the clutch in Q4. Having Mr. 4Q is great in that aspect.

The key for the Mavs season is playing better, when Luka doesn't play. Mavs were in the Finals +1 with Luka on the court and -15.6 with Luka off. 16.6 net rtg. For example Kyrie had - 1.4 net rtg. That's the story of the Finals, and the reason why Mavs weren't competitive. Not Luka's bad D all ball hogging.

Nico didn't bring 34 years old Klay to change Mavs offense in Warriors type offense, but to have a player capable of converting great looks Luka and Kyrie are creating. Mavs will still play mostly pick&roll and Iso offense. There's no magic stick, which can change what Luka and Kyrie are doing the best and what they can't. Btw. Kyrie is more Iso scorer than Luka. Klay is a tool not the system. Nobody is changing everything because 34 years old player was used to play differently. Klay will adapt not vice versa.

I have a feeling that everyone forgot that Mavs were in the Finals. They were better than 28 other teams, from which many play with great ball movement. Fortunately enough Nico understands perfectly what was the problem in the Finals, that's why he brought 1 great shooter, although out of his prime and 2 solid ones. Mavs have the system, they need better execution. I doubt that Klay won't be able to blend perfectly in the offensive system, I'm afraid if he's capable of playing at least solid D. But even that won't be total tragedy, because Luka and Kyrie are not playing all the time together. So 10-15 minutes playing all 3 together won't kill Mavs, if offense will be elite.

Winning title is extremely difficult and some luck is required also. Just look at Denver title, playing against tired Miami is kinda different than against greatly composed Celtics.

[Mavrelous]

I have a feeling that everyone forgot that Mavs were in the Finals. They were better than 28 other teams, from which many play with great ball movement. Fortunately enough Nico understands perfectly what was the problem in the Finals, that's why he brought 1 great shooter, although out of his prime and 2 solid ones. Mavs have the system, they need better execution. I doubt that Klay won't be able to blend perfectly in the offensive system, I'm afraid if he's capable of playing at least solid D. But even that won't be total tragedy, because Luka and Kyrie are not playing all the time together. So 10-15 minutes playing all 3 together won't kill Mavs, if offense will be elite.

Luka strained his calf in the last game of 22 RS, missed 1st 3 PO games (thet's with the play in adding few days recess between RS and PO).
Strained his thigh/hamstring against the Pelicans in 23, didn't recover from it IMO until the next season.
Strained his knee in 24, and was limited by it.
As great as Luka was in 22 against the Suns, and in 24 against in all 4 series, I still think his best games in the PO were against the Clippers in 20 and 21.
It's becoming a pattern, I don't think its' smart to lower Luka's usage in the PO, his style is perfect match for the PO IMO, and with the defensive personnel, the potential is sky high, but he needs to stop exerting this much effort on 82 RS games and reach the PO hobbled (or miss it altogether like in 23).

[Bob8]

I have a feeling that everyone forgot that Mavs were in the Finals. They were better than 28 other teams, from which many play with great ball movement. Fortunately enough Nico understands perfectly what was the problem in the Finals, that's why he brought 1 great shooter, although out of his prime and 2 solid ones. Mavs have the system, they need better execution. I doubt that Klay won't be able to blend perfectly in the offensive system, I'm afraid if he's capable of playing at least solid D. But even that won't be total tragedy, because Luka and Kyrie are not playing all the time together. So 10-15 minutes playing all 3 together won't kill Mavs, if offense will be elite.

Luka strained his calf in the last game of 22 RS, missed 1st 3 PO games (thet's with the play in adding few days recess between RS and PO).
Strained his thigh/hamstring against the Pelicans in 23, didn't recover from it IMO until the next season.
Strained his knee in 24, and was limited by it.
As great as Luka was in 22 against the Suns, and in 24 against in all 4 series, I still think his best games in the PO were against the Clippers in 20 and 21.
It's becoming a pattern, I don't think its' smart to lower Luka's usage in the PO, his style is perfect match for the PO IMO, and with the defensive personnel, the potential is sky high, but he needs to stop exerting this much effort on 82 RS games and reach the PO hobbled (or miss it altogether like in 23).

And we totally agree there. You know what's the easiest way to help him stay healthy?

[Mavrelous]

I have a feeling that everyone forgot that Mavs were in the Finals. They were better than 28 other teams, from which many play with great ball movement. Fortunately enough Nico understands perfectly what was the problem in the Finals, that's why he brought 1 great shooter, although out of his prime and 2 solid ones. Mavs have the system, they need better execution. I doubt that Klay won't be able to blend perfectly in the offensive system, I'm afraid if he's capable of playing at least solid D. But even that won't be total tragedy, because Luka and Kyrie are not playing all the time together. So 10-15 minutes playing all 3 together won't kill Mavs, if offense will be elite.

Luka strained his calf in the last game of 22 RS, missed 1st 3 PO games (thet's with the play in adding few days recess between RS and PO).
Strained his thigh/hamstring against the Pelicans in 23, didn't recover from it IMO until the next season.
Strained his knee in 24, and was limited by it.
As great as Luka was in 22 against the Suns, and in 24 against in all 4 series, I still think his best games in the PO were against the Clippers in 20 and 21.
It's becoming a pattern, I don't think its' smart to lower Luka's usage in the PO, his style is perfect match for the PO IMO, and with the defensive personnel, the potential is sky high, but he needs to stop exerting this much effort on 82 RS games and reach the PO hobbled (or miss it altogether like in 23).

And we totally agree there. You know what's the easiest way to help him stay healthy?

Beer?

[Bob8]

[*]

Luka strained his calf in the last game of 22 RS, missed 1st 3 PO games (thet's with the play in adding few days recess between RS and PO).
Strained his thigh/hamstring against the Pelicans in 23, didn't recover from it IMO until the next season.
Strained his knee in 24, and was limited by it.
As great as Luka was in 22 against the Suns, and in 24 against in all 4 series, I still think his best games in the PO were against the Clippers in 20 and 21.
It's becoming a pattern, I don't think its' smart to lower Luka's usage in the PO, his style is perfect match for the PO IMO, and with the defensive personnel, the potential is sky high, but he needs to stop exerting this much effort on 82 RS games and reach the PO hobbled (or miss it altogether like in 23).

And we totally agree there. You know what's the easiest way to help him stay healthy?

Beer?

Just play him less, by winning or at least not loosing much, when he's on the bench. I find funny people complaining about his style of play, how Kyrie and others should play faster and with better ball movement. And what happens, when he's out? Where is that ball movement? They play exactly the same, just with a lot worse result. Which shouldn't be exactly shocking, knowing that Kyrie is elite in Iso and not in playmaking.

[41Dirk41]

Luka strained his calf in the last game of 22 RS, missed 1st 3 PO games (thet's with the play in adding few days recess between RS and PO).
Strained his thigh/hamstring against the Pelicans in 23, didn't recover from it IMO until the next season.
Strained his knee in 24, and was limited by it.
As great as Luka was in 22 against the Suns, and in 24 against in all 4 series, I still think his best games in the PO were against the Clippers in 20 and 21.
It's becoming a pattern, I don't think its' smart to lower Luka's usage in the PO, his style is perfect match for the PO IMO, and with the defensive personnel, the potential is sky high, but he needs to stop exerting this much effort on 82 RS games and reach the PO hobbled (or miss it altogether like in 23).

And we totally agree there. You know what's the easiest way to help him stay healthy?

Beer?

Hahahha

[Dirk2Doncic]

Let me clarify gentlemen...

I am NOT calling for major changes in how Luka plays basketball.

I am only saying there are aspects to his game that can be polished. As great as he is, he can still get better.

I don't know how you could watch the finals and not see that he lost his mind a couple games and it affected his play and hurt his team. I'm NOT saying that is the reason we lost the finals.

I expect him to get RS MVP next year.

[tleikheen]

Luka vs Giannis ,win or go home .

I like Giannis but definitely want to see Luka get in the Olympics and join Dante Exum as an Olympian for the 2024 Paris Olympics .
The loser of Greece vs Slovenia goes home. I think this is another big game for Luka who doesnt want to lose in the NBA Finals and also not lead his team into the Olympics as well.

[Archx]

Luka averaged 8.8 points, 2.7 rebounds and 2.6 assists in 400 games in the first quarter in his career. +400 - TS 58%

...averaged 6.6 points, 1.8 assists and 1.7 rebounds in 398 games in the second quarter in his career. +175 - TS 60.1%

...averaged 8.1 points, 2.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists in 396 games in the third quarter in his career. +311 - TS 59%

...averaged 5.6 points, 1.9 rebounds and 1.5 assists in 366 games in the fourth quarter in his career. +2 - TS 56%

Statistically 1st and 3rd Q's are by far his best impact and scoring wise.

But...

Luka WITH Kyrie in the 4th Q.

...averaged 5.8 points, 1.9 rebounds and 1.7 assists in 63 games with Kyrie in the fourth quarter in his career. +62 - TS 61%

Kyrie Irving

1st QTR ...averaged 5.8 points, 1.4 assists and 1.1 rebounds in 78 games for the Mavericks. TS 59.7%

And 4th....has averaged 7.6 points, 1.5 rebounds and 1.3 assists in 75 games for the Mavericks. TS 64%

TLDR;

As you can see, before Kyrie arrived teams knew who to double and make life difficult. Double/triple team Doncic at the end and let guys like DFS/Bullock/THJ, etc, beat you. With Kyrie, it's a much different story. Not only does Doncic's shooting %'s go way up (roughly 5%), even his impact in categories is much more noticeable.

[Bob8]

Luka vs Giannis ,win or go home .

I like Giannis but definitely want to see Luka get in the Olympics and join Dante Exum as an Olympian for the 2024 Paris Olympics .
The loser of Greece vs Slovenia goes home. I think this is another big game for Luka who doesnt want to lose in the NBA Finals and also not lead his team into the Olympics as well.

You should check rosters of both teams. Slovenian chances are minimal.

[tleikheen]

Ive checked both rosters ,this is a game of Luka vs Giannis .They both have to have superior games for their team to win BUT they want Olympic Glory for their country and they will play all out to win .

[Bob8]

Ive checked both rosters ,this is a game of Luka vs Giannis .They both have to have superior games for their team to win BUT they want Olympic Glory for their country and they will play all out to win .

What did you check?

Cancar out for 1 year, Acl injury, game against New Zealand, 0 points. Muric out for 1 year, Acl injury, 0 points against New Zealand. Z.Dragic, didn't play for Cedevita Olimpija first half of year, coach didn't like him, 0 points. The only player playing in Euroleague is Nebo. Greece has 8 players playing in Euroleague. And Greece is having home court advantage in pretty hostile environment.

Bets on Greece are 1.28, that's 78% probability. That would be - 350 in USA. I would say that Luka needs something around 50/20/20 for Slovenia to have a chance.

[tleikheen]

Bets on Greece are 1.28, that's 78% probability. I would say that Luka needs something around 50/20/20 for Slovenia to have a chance.

So what pt are you trying to make ....I said Luka needs a superior game for them to win........

[Bob8]

Bets on Greece are 1.28, that's 78% probability. I would say that Luka needs something around 50/20/20 for Slovenia to have a chance.

So what pt are you trying to make ....I said Luka needs a superior game for them to win........

You said both need superior games for their teams to win. Giannis played 18 minutes in game 1 and 0 minutes In game 2. Luka played 37 and 35 minutes in first 2 games, that should tell you, which team needs their superstar more. Greece not winning would be a big sensation.

[41Dirk41]

32-14 first quarter.
And as (almost) everyone here thought Slovenia is a no match for Giannis&co.