My prediction for a Lauri to GSW trade (w/WAS)

[babyjax13]

I think the trade is more likely than any other, but Golden State has to get their pick back from Washington to make it happen. The Warriors are motivated to keep Kuminga, and Utah is motivated to get as many picks as possible from a team with a short (or no) window. Santos may need to be added to perfectly balance salaries depending on where they land re: tax levels, but everything is really close financially between Lauri and Looney + Payton.

GSW trade: Kevon Looney, Gary Payton, Moses Moody, 2026 ATL 2nd, 2028 ATL 2nd, 2026 GSW 1st, 2028 GSW 1st, 2030 GSW 1st, 2025 pick swap (UTA receives best of CLE/GSW/MIN 1st, GSW receives the worst), 2027 pick swap (UTA receives best of CLE/GSW/MIN 1st, GSW receives the worst)
in: Lauri Markkanen, 2030 GSW 1st (1-20 protected --- GSW trades unprotected 2030 1st)
Golden State adds Lauri without moving Kuminga or Podz.

UTA trades: Lauri Markkanen, 2029 UTA 2nd
in: Kevon Looney, Gary Payton, 2026 GSW 1st, 2028 GSW 1st, 2030 GSW 1st, 2025 pick swap (UTA receives best 2 of CLE/GSW/MIN 1st, GSW receives the worst), 2027 pick swap (UTA receives best 2 of CLE/GSW/MIN 1st, GSW receives the worst)
Utah gets 3 unprotected 1sts from an aging team and two pick swaps that they will have a reasonable chance to actually exercise.

WAS trades: 2030 GSW 1st (1-20 protected)
in: Moses Moody, 2026 ATL 2nd, 2028 ATL 2nd, 2029 UTA 2nd
Washington swaps a top 20 protected 1st from an older team for 3 seconds with reasonable upside to be in the 30s to 40s and a serviceable young wing.

[giberish]

Given the Warriors apparent no Kunminga in the deal stance this might be the most they're offering. Though paying Lauri + Kunminga next season gets the team back deep into the luxury tax.

Personally I'd rather deal Kunminga that owe that many future 1sts. A simple Kunminga + Payton or Looney + 2025, 27 1sts for Lauri deal.

Of course I could also see Ainge asking for Kunminga and all the 1sts GS can round up. I wouldn't go that high.

[winforlose]

This is a question not a statement. Are we sure there are no hard cap issues involved and the trade is 100% legal?

[babyjax13]

Given the Warriors apparent no Kunminga in the deal stance this might be the most they're offering. Though paying Lauri + Kunminga next season gets the team back deep into the luxury tax.

Personally I'd rather deal Kunminga that owe that many future 1sts. A simple Kunminga + Payton or Looney + 2025, 27 1sts for Lauri deal.

Of course I could also see Ainge asking for Kunminga and all the 1sts GS can round up. I wouldn't go that high.

I'm frankly not that interested in Kuminga as the centerpiece of a Lauri deal, but it would fit Ainge's MO of adding picks while also adding a player whose value can be built and then potentially flipped.

[Coxy]

Kunminga.

Please stop it.

[babyjax13]

This is a question not a statement. Are we sure there are no hard cap issues involved and the trade is 100% legal?

Yes. The Warriors only have $146 million in payroll and Payton + Looney are within 900k of Lauri's salary. If there are any issues, adding Santos means Golden State sends more than they receive.

If my reading of this is correct (and I think it is), it is legal:

A team becomes hard-capped at the first tax apron if:

The team uses its bi-annual exception to sign a player.
The team uses more than the taxpayer portion of the mid-level exception to sign a player (or multiple players).
Note: In 2023/24, the taxpayer MLE is worth $5,000,000, compared to $12,405,000 for the full non-taxpayer MLE. The taxpayer MLE can be used to complete deals up to two years, while the non-taxpayer MLE can be used to complete deals up to four years.
The team uses any portion of its mid-level exception to acquire a player via trade or waiver claim.
The team acquires a player via sign-and-trade.
The team signs a player who was waived during the current season, if his pre-waiver salary for 2023/24 exceeded the amount of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12,405,000).
The team takes back more than 110% of the salary it sends out in a trade (using salary-matching rather than cap room).
A team making any of those six roster moves must ensure that its team salary is below the first tax apron when it finalizes the transaction and remains below the apron for the rest of the league year.

For the 2023/24 league year, the first apron is set at $172,346,000, which is $7,052,000 above the tax line. A team that completes one of the six moves listed above can’t surpass that line under any circumstances.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/12/hoops-rumors-glossary-hard-cap-3.html#:~:text=A%20team%20becomes%20hard%2Dcapped,player%20(or%20multiple%20players).

[Coxy]

I can’t see the Warriors shelling out every pick they have until the end of the century to acquire the potential rental of a non all star stretch big.

[giberish]

Given the Warriors apparent no Kunminga in the deal stance this might be the most they're offering. Though paying Lauri + Kunminga next season gets the team back deep into the luxury tax.

Personally I'd rather deal Kunminga that owe that many future 1sts. A simple Kunminga + Payton or Looney + 2025, 27 1sts for Lauri deal.

Of course I could also see Ainge asking for Kunminga and all the 1sts GS can round up. I wouldn't go that high.

I'm frankly not that interested in Kuminga as the centerpiece of a Lauri deal, but it would fit Ainge's MO of adding picks while also adding a player whose value can be built and then potentially flipped.

From a GS perspective I just hate the idea of owing that many picks that far out. It really @#%$#s up a franchise for quite a while and it's not likely that GS is going to be that good for those later picks (yes that's why Ainge would care more for them but having several years of rebuilding level talent and no 1sts is just bleak). I figure adding Kunminga is a good way to send value to Utah without leaving GS totally hosed in a couple years.

[winforlose]

This is a question not a statement. Are we sure there are no hard cap issues involved and the trade is 100% legal?

Yes. The Warriors only have $146 million in payroll and Payton + Looney are within 900k of Lauri's salary. If there are any issues, adding Santos means Golden State sends more than they receive.

If my reading of this is correct (and I think it is), it is legal:

A team becomes hard-capped at the first tax apron if:

The team uses its bi-annual exception to sign a player.
The team uses more than the taxpayer portion of the mid-level exception to sign a player (or multiple players).
Note: In 2023/24, the taxpayer MLE is worth $5,000,000, compared to $12,405,000 for the full non-taxpayer MLE. The taxpayer MLE can be used to complete deals up to two years, while the non-taxpayer MLE can be used to complete deals up to four years.
The team uses any portion of its mid-level exception to acquire a player via trade or waiver claim.
The team acquires a player via sign-and-trade.
The team signs a player who was waived during the current season, if his pre-waiver salary for 2023/24 exceeded the amount of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12,405,000).
The team takes back more than 110% of the salary it sends out in a trade (using salary-matching rather than cap room).
A team making any of those six roster moves must ensure that its team salary is below the first tax apron when it finalizes the transaction and remains below the apron for the rest of the league year.

For the 2023/24 league year, the first apron is set at $172,346,000, which is $7,052,000 above the tax line. A team that completes one of the six moves listed above can’t surpass that line under any circumstances.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/12/hoops-rumors-glossary-hard-cap-3.html#:~:text=A%20team%20becomes%20hard%2Dcapped,player%20(or%20multiple%20players).

Not sure about the 2nd one (was it Buddy Hield,) but GSW got Kyle Anderson via sign and trade. Doesn’t that hard cap them? I don’t know the new CBA rules well at all, that’s why I am asking. Unless you are saying the trade keeps them under the hard cap? Also do they have 14 players or enough money to sign a 14th? Again all questions no statements.

[kobe_vs_jordan]

I can’t see the Warriors shelling out every pick they have until the end of the century to acquire the potential rental of a non all star stretch big.

Kinda how i feel. 3 unprotected picks trades use to be saved for all nba caliber players.

[winforlose]

I can’t see the Warriors shelling out every pick they have until the end of the century to acquire the potential rental of a non all star stretch big.

Kinda how i feel. 3 unprotected picks trades use to be saved for all nba caliber players.

My question is if Curry and Markkanen are your two best, who is #3? If the answer is Wiggins or Podz are you considering yourselves favorites to be in the top 6 in a loaded west? Especially with Memphis getting everyone back?

[kobe_vs_jordan]

I can’t see the Warriors shelling out every pick they have until the end of the century to acquire the potential rental of a non all star stretch big.

Kinda how i feel. 3 unprotected picks trades use to be saved for all nba caliber players.

My question is if Curry and Markkanen are your two best, who is #3? If the answer is Wiggins or Podz are you considering yourselves favorites to be in the top 6 in a loaded west? Especially with Memphis getting everyone back?

Depend which Wiggins comes to the court this season lol

I need to see how motivated Wiggins is to have faith in a Curry, Lauri , Wiggins trio.

[babyjax13]

This is a question not a statement. Are we sure there are no hard cap issues involved and the trade is 100% legal?

Yes. The Warriors only have $146 million in payroll and Payton + Looney are within 900k of Lauri's salary. If there are any issues, adding Santos means Golden State sends more than they receive.

If my reading of this is correct (and I think it is), it is legal:

A team becomes hard-capped at the first tax apron if:

The team uses its bi-annual exception to sign a player.
The team uses more than the taxpayer portion of the mid-level exception to sign a player (or multiple players).
Note: In 2023/24, the taxpayer MLE is worth $5,000,000, compared to $12,405,000 for the full non-taxpayer MLE. The taxpayer MLE can be used to complete deals up to two years, while the non-taxpayer MLE can be used to complete deals up to four years.
The team uses any portion of its mid-level exception to acquire a player via trade or waiver claim.
The team acquires a player via sign-and-trade.
The team signs a player who was waived during the current season, if his pre-waiver salary for 2023/24 exceeded the amount of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12,405,000).
The team takes back more than 110% of the salary it sends out in a trade (using salary-matching rather than cap room).
A team making any of those six roster moves must ensure that its team salary is below the first tax apron when it finalizes the transaction and remains below the apron for the rest of the league year.

For the 2023/24 league year, the first apron is set at $172,346,000, which is $7,052,000 above the tax line. A team that completes one of the six moves listed above can’t surpass that line under any circumstances.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/12/hoops-rumors-glossary-hard-cap-3.html#:~:text=A%20team%20becomes%20hard%2Dcapped,player%20(or%20multiple%20players).

Not sure about the 2nd one (was it Buddy Hield,) but GSW got Kyle Anderson via sign and trade. Doesn’t that hard cap them? I don’t know the new CBA rules well at all, that’s why I am asking. Unless you are saying the trade keeps them under the hard cap? Also do they have 14 players or enough money to sign a 14th? Again all questions no statements.

Edit: added Moody, took out 2nds, bbrefs salary page was not up to date.

[babyjax13]

I can’t see the Warriors shelling out every pick they have until the end of the century to acquire the potential rental of a non all star stretch big.

I can definitely see that. The trouble is - and this may be why he doesn't get moved - Utah can lock in Lauri relatively easily and capitalize on that value later. Once they do that, however, there is a set of teams who won't have adequate matching salary.

Golden State could include Wiggins after an R+E (Utah will have 1 day during the season they can trade him as long as he signs the R+E ON August 6th) but I imagine Utah demands compensation for him (unless a third team can be found). We know how Ainge operates and he has a price, I do think there is a decent chance a team will offer that price before the R+E date.

Whether it is a wise move for Golden State? They'd certainly have a really fun and very good team, but I do not think they have a path for a championship caliber team.

[Knicks365247]

Warriors would need to:
1. retain Kuminga
2. Have Kuminga make a "big jump" to have any real potential to make noise in the playoffs.

[winforlose]

Yes. The Warriors only have $146 million in payroll and Payton + Looney are within 900k of Lauri's salary. If there are any issues, adding Santos means Golden State sends more than they receive.

If my reading of this is correct (and I think it is), it is legal:



https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/12/hoops-rumors-glossary-hard-cap-3.html#:~:text=A%20team%20becomes%20hard%2Dcapped,player%20(or%20multiple%20players).

Not sure about the 2nd one (was it Buddy Hield,) but GSW got Kyle Anderson via sign and trade. Doesn’t that hard cap them? I don’t know the new CBA rules well at all, that’s why I am asking. Unless you are saying the trade keeps them under the hard cap? Also do they have 14 players or enough money to sign a 14th? Again all questions no statements.

They are about $24 million under the first apron, so I don't think they are hard-capped?

halp

Just checked, are you sure?

https://hoopshype.com/salaries/golden_state_warriors/

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/golden-state-warriors/cap/_/year/2024

I think they needed the sign and trades because they were significantly higher and couldn’t bring more salary in. Plus didn’t they use the MLE on someone (Melton I think,) which now that I think about it would also hard cap them. Unless I am missing something?

[babyjax13]

Not sure about the 2nd one (was it Buddy Hield,) but GSW got Kyle Anderson via sign and trade. Doesn’t that hard cap them? I don’t know the new CBA rules well at all, that’s why I am asking. Unless you are saying the trade keeps them under the hard cap? Also do they have 14 players or enough money to sign a 14th? Again all questions no statements.

They are about $24 million under the first apron, so I don't think they are hard-capped?

halp

Just checked, are you sure?

https://hoopshype.com/salaries/golden_state_warriors/

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/golden-state-warriors/cap/_/year/2024

I think they needed the sign and trades because they were significantly higher and couldn’t bring more salary in. Plus didn’t they use the MLE on someone (Melton I think,) which now that I think about it would also hard cap them. Unless I am missing something?

Ah, I looked at basketball reference. I think Moody needs to be included to make it legal with the roster charges. Maybe take out some of the 2nds and send him with 2 or 3 total (including the one from Utah) to Washington and it balances out.

[winforlose]

They are about $24 million under the first apron, so I don't think they are hard-capped?

Just checked, are you sure?

https://hoopshype.com/salaries/golden_state_warriors/

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/golden-state-warriors/cap/_/year/2024

I think they needed the sign and trades because they were significantly higher and couldn’t bring more salary in. Plus didn’t they use the MLE on someone (Melton I think,) which now that I think about it would also hard cap them. Unless I am missing something?

Ah, I looked at basketball reference. I think Moody needs to be included to make it legal with the roster charges. Maybe take out some of the 2nds and send him with 2 or 3 total (including the one from Utah) to Washington and it balances out.

Honestly not sure. I do know that they need 14 and be under the 1st apron. Would have to work with the numbers to figure it out.

[winforlose]

Yes. The Warriors only have $146 million in payroll and Payton + Looney are within 900k of Lauri's salary. If there are any issues, adding Santos means Golden State sends more than they receive.

If my reading of this is correct (and I think it is), it is legal:



https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/12/hoops-rumors-glossary-hard-cap-3.html#:~:text=A%20team%20becomes%20hard%2Dcapped,player%20(or%20multiple%20players).

Not sure about the 2nd one (was it Buddy Hield,) but GSW got Kyle Anderson via sign and trade. Doesn’t that hard cap them? I don’t know the new CBA rules well at all, that’s why I am asking. Unless you are saying the trade keeps them under the hard cap? Also do they have 14 players or enough money to sign a 14th? Again all questions no statements.

Edit: added Moody, took out 2nds, bbrefs salary page was not up to date.

So I did some checking for you. The vet minimum hit to the cap this year is $2,087,519. The savings for GSW are $4,888,725. So $2,087,519 x2 = $4,175,038. That means GSW in theory is saving $713,679. They were already $823,206 below the line. Add the numbers together and you get $1,536,885 below the hard cap. But what I don’t know is if GSW has contract incentives that exceed that amount

Edit to update: Spotrac says no incentives on anyone still on the team after your trade, it is possible they don’t know about new ones for the newly acquired players. So in theory this suggestion is legal.

[babyjax13]

Not sure about the 2nd one (was it Buddy Hield,) but GSW got Kyle Anderson via sign and trade. Doesn’t that hard cap them? I don’t know the new CBA rules well at all, that’s why I am asking. Unless you are saying the trade keeps them under the hard cap? Also do they have 14 players or enough money to sign a 14th? Again all questions no statements.

Edit: added Moody, took out 2nds, bbrefs salary page was not up to date.

So I did some checking for you. The vet minimum hit to the cap this year is $2,087,519. The savings for GSW are $4,888,725. So $2,087,519 x2 = $4,175,038. That means GSW in theory is saving $713,679. They were already $823,206 below the line. Add the numbers together and you get $1,536,885 below the hard cap. But what I don’t know is if GSW has contract incentives that exceed that amount

Edit to update: Spotrac says no incentives on anyone still on the team after your trade, it is possible they don’t know about new ones for the newly acquired players. So in theory this suggestion is legal.

Thank you!